We study the dynamics of opinion formation in the situation where changing opinion involves a cost for the agents. To do so we couple the dynamics of a heterogeneous bounded confidence Hegselmann-Krause model with that of the resources that the agents invest on each opinion change. The outcomes of the dynamics are non-trivial and strongly depend on the different regions of the confidence parameter space. In particular, a second order phase transition, for which we determine the corresponding critical exponents, is found in the region where a re-entrant consensus phase is observed in the heterogeneous Hegselmann-Krause model. For regions where consensus always exist in the heterogeneous Hegselmann-Krause model, the introduction of cost does not lead to a phase transition but just to a continuous decrease of the size of the largest opinion cluster. Finally in the region where fragmentation is expected in the heterogeneous HK model, the introduction of a very small cost paradoxically increases the size of the largest opinion cluster.
We have presented a numerical model of a collective opinion formation procedure to explain political phenomena such as two-party and multi-party systems in politics, political unrest, military coup d'etats and netizen revolutions. Nonlinear interaction with binary and independent decision making processes can yield various collective behaviors or collective political opinions. Statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics may provide useful tools to study various socio-political dynamics.
We expect that democracy enables us to utilize collective intelligence such that our collective decisions build and enhance social welfare, and such that we accept their distributive and normative consequences. Collective decisions are produced by voting procedures which aggregate individual preferences and judgments. Before and after, individual preferences and judgments change as their underlying attitudes, values, and opinions change through discussion and deliberation. In large groups, these dynamics naturally go beyond the scope of the individual and consequently might show unexpected sel…
Messages conveyed by media act as a major drive in shaping attitudes and inducing opinion shift. On the other hand, individuals are strongly affected by peer pressure while forming their own judgment. We solve a general model of opinion dynamics where individuals either hold one of two alternative opinions or are undecided and interact pairwise while exposed to an external influence. As media pressure increases, the system moves from pluralism to global consensus; four distinct classes of collective behavior emerge, crucially depending on the outcome of direct interactions among individuals ho…
With the advent of online networks, societies are substantially more connected with individual members able to easily modify and maintain their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation bias, the tendency to confirm one's beliefs, and we explore how this affects collective opinion formation. We introduce a model of binary opinion dynamics on a complex network with fast, stochastic rewiring and show that confirmation bias induces a segregation of individuals with different opinions. We use the dynamics of global opinion to generally categoriz…
"Wisdom of crowds" refers to the phenomenon that the average opinion of a group of individuals on a given question can be very close to the true answer. It requires a large group diversity of opinions, but the collective error, the difference between the average opinion and the true value, has to be small. We consider a stochastic opinion dynamics where individuals can change their opinion based on the opinions of others (social influence $α$), but to some degree also stick to their initial opinion (individual conviction $β$). We then derive analytic expressions for the dynamics of the collect…
We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ. 114, 37 (1999)] for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show tha…
We study the dynamics of public opinion in a model in which agents change their opinions as a result of random binary encounters if the opinion difference is below their individual thresholds that evolve over time. We ground these thresholds in a simple individual cost-benefit analysis with linear benefits of diversity and quadratic communication costs. We clarify and deepen the results of earlier continuous-opinion dynamics models (Deffuant et al., Adv Complex Systems 2000; Weisbuch et al., Complexity 2002) and establish several new results regarding the patterns of opinions in the asymptotic…
The formation of collective opinion is a complex phenomenon that results from the combined effects of mass media exposure and social influence between individuals. The present work introduces a model of opinion formation specifically designed to address risk judgments, such as attitudes towards climate change, terrorist threats, or children vaccination. The model assumes that people collect risk information from the media environment and exchange them locally with other individuals. Even though individuals are initially exposed to the same sample of information, the model predicts the emergenc…
We propose a microscopic model to describe how individual opinions shared between interacting agents initiate excessive collective expectations about a new idea or an innovation, followed by a swift collapse towards a dramatic collective disillusionment. The basic assumption which underlies the dynamics is that the information gathering process is not instantaneous but requires maturation. Agents steadily refine and update their personal opinion via a recurrent consultation of a public pool which stores information tokens (ITs). The expectation for the innovative idea is monitored in real-time…
What are the mechanisms by which groups with certain opinions gain public voice and force others holding a different view into silence? And how does social media play into this? Drawing on recent neuro-scientific insights into the processing of social feedback, we develop a theoretical model that allows to address these questions. The model captures phenomena described by spiral of silence theory of public opinion, provides a mechanism-based foundation for it, and allows in this way more general insight into how different group structures relate to different regimes of collective opinion expre…
Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing…
Motivated by the literature on opinion dynamics and evolutionary game theory, we propose a novel mathematical framework to model the intertwined coevolution of opinions and decision-making in a complex social system. In the proposed framework, the members of a social community update their opinions and revise their actions as they learn of others' opinions shared on a communication channel, and observe of others' actions through an influence channel; these interactions determine a two-layer network structure. We offer an application of the proposed framework by tailoring it to study the adopti…
In modern society people are being exposed to numerous information, with some of them being frequently repeated or more disruptive than others. In this paper we use a model of opinion dynamics to study how this news impact the society. In particular, our study aims to explain how the exposure of the society to certain events deeply change people's perception of the present and future. The evolution of opinions which we consider is influenced both by external information and the pressure of the society. The latter includes imitation, differentiation, homophily and its opposite, xenophobia. The …
We explore how the mechanics of collective decision-making, especially of jury deliberation, can be inferred from macroscopic statistics. We first hypothesize that the dynamics of competing opinions can leave a "fingerprint" in the joint distribution of final votes and time to reach a decision. We probe this hypothesis by modeling jury datasets from different states collected in different years and identifying which of the models best explains opinion dynamics in juries. In our best-fit model, individual jurors have a "herding" tendency to adopt the majority opinion of the jury, but as the amo…
In this paper, we model a decision-making process involving a set of interacting agents. We use Markovian opinion dynamics, where each agent switches between decisions according to a continuous time Markov chain. Existing opinion dynamics models are extended by introducing attractive and repulsive forces that act within and between groups of agents, respectively. Such an extension enables the resemblance of behaviours emerging in networks where agents make decisions that depend both on their own preferences and the decisions of specific groups of surrounding agents. The considered modeling pro…
The Majority Rule is applied to a topology that consists of two coupled random networks, thereby mimicking the modular structure observed in social networks. We calculate analytically the asymptotic behaviour of the model and derive a phase diagram that depends on the frequency of random opinion flips and on the inter-connectivity between the two communities. It is shown that three regimes may take place: a disordered regime, where no collective phenomena takes place; a symmetric regime, where the nodes in both communities reach the same average opinion; an asymmetric regime, where the nodes i…
We propose a consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game. In our model, both of the two connected agents receive a benefit if they have the same opinion, otherwise they both pay a cost. Agents update their opinions by comparing payoffs with neighbors. The opinion of an agent with higher payoff is more likely to be imitated. We apply this model in scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal ratio of cost to benefit, leading to the shortest consensus time. Qualitative analysis is obtained by examining the evolution of the o…
We study the role of hierarchical structures in a simple model of collective consensus formation based on the bounded confidence model with continuous individual opinions. For the particular variation of this model considered in this paper, we assume that a bias towards an extreme opinion is introduced whenever two individuals interact and form a common decision. As a simple proxy for hierarchical social structures, we introduce a two-step decision making process in which in the second step groups of like-minded individuals are replaced by representatives once they have reached local consensus…
Understanding the evolution of collective beliefs is of critical importance to get insights on the political trends as well as on social tastes and opinions. In particular, it is pivotal to develop analytical models that can predict the beliefs dynamics and capture the interdependence of opinions on different subjects. In this paper we tackle this issue also accounting for the individual endogenous process of opinion evolution, as well as repulsive interactions between individuals' opinions that may arise in the presence of an adversarial attitude of the individuals. Using a mean field approac…
We provide an agent-based model to explain the emergence of collective opinions not based on feedback between different opinions, but based on emotional interactions between agents. The driving variable is the emotional state of agents, characterized by their valence and their arousal. Both determine their emotional expression, from which collective emotional information is generated. This information feeds back on the dynamics of emotional states and of individual opinions in a non-linear manner. We derive the critical conditions for emotional interactions to obtain either consensus or polari…
Confirmation bias and peer pressure both have substantial impacts on the formation of collective decisions. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to study how the interplay between these two mechanisms affects public opinion evolution. Here we propose an agent-based model of opinion dynamics which incorporates the conjugate effect of confirmation bias (characterized by the population identity scope and individual stubbornness) and peer pressure (described by a susceptibility threshold). We show that the number of opinion fragments first increases and then decreases to one as population ide…
South China Normal University（华南师范大学）；Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Nuclear Science（广东省核科学重点实验室）；RIKEN Center for Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences (iTHEMS)（理化学研究所交叉理论与数学科学中心（iTHEMS））；RIKEN Center for Computational Science (R-CCS)（理化学研究所计算科学中心（R-CCS））；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）
本研究提出了一种基于量子计算的 opinion dynamics 模型，通过量子叠加和纠缠等机制，系统研究网络连通性对共识形成的影响，并在 IBM 量子设备上验证了其有效性。
We study the effects of inhomogeneous influence of individuals on collective phenomena. We focus analytically on a typical model of the majority rule, applied to the completely connected agents. Two types of individuals $A$ and $B$ with different influence activity are introduced. The individuals $A$ and $B$ are distributed randomly with concentrations $ν$ and $1-ν$ at the beginning and fixed further on. Our main result is that the location of the order-disorder transition is affected due to the introduction of the inhomogeneous influence. This result highlights the importance of inhomogeneous…
Understanding the impact of collective social phenomena in epidemic dynamics is a crucial task to effectively contain the disease spread. In this work we build a mathematical description for assessing the interplay between opinion polarization and the evolution of a disease. The proposed kinetic approach describes the evolution of aggregate quantities characterizing the agents belonging to epidemiologically relevant states, and will show that the spread of the disease is closely related to consensus dynamics distribution in which opinion polarization may emerge. In the present modelling framew…
The information system (T.V., newspapers, blogs, social network platforms) and its inner dynamics play a fundamental role on the evolution of collective debates and thus on the public opinion. In this work we address such a process focusing on how the current inner strategies of the information system (competition, customer satisfaction) once combined with the gossip may affect the opinions dynamics. A reinforcement effect is particularly evident in the social network platforms where several and incompatible cultures coexist (e.g, pro or against the existence of chemical trails and reptilians,…
Individuals of modern societies share ideas and participate in collective processes within a pervasive, variable, and mostly hidden ecosystem of content filtering technologies that determine what information we see online. Despite the impact of these algorithms on daily life and society, little is known about their effect on information transfer and opinion formation. It is thus unclear to what extent algorithmic bias has a harmful influence on collective decision-making, such as a tendency to polarize debate. Here we introduce a general theoretical framework to systematically link models of o…
We investigate the role of opinion leaders or influentials in the collective behavior of a social system. Opinion leaders are characterized by their unidirectional influence on other agents. We employ a model based on Axelrod's dynamics for cultural interaction among social agents that allows for non-interacting states. We find three collective phases in the space of parameters of the system, given by the fraction of opinion leaders and a quantity representing the number of available states: one ordered phase having the state imposed by the leaders; another nontrivial ordered phase consisting …
We study a model of a population making a binary decision based on information spreading within the population, which is fully connected or covering a square grid. We assume that a fraction of the population wants to make the choice of the majority, while the rest want to make the minority choice. This resembles opinion spreading with "contrarian" agents, but has the game theoretic aspect that agents try to optimize their own situation in ways that are incompatible with the common good. When this fraction is less than 1/2, the population can efficiently self-organize to a state where agents ge…
In this paper, the effect on collective opinions of filtering algorithms managed by social network platforms is modeled and investigated. A stochastic multi-agent model for opinion dynamics is proposed, that accounts for a centralized tuning of the strength of interaction between individuals. The evolution of each individual opinion is described by a Markov chain, whose transition rates are affected by the opinions of the neighbors through influence parameters. The properties of this model are studied in a general setting as well as in interesting special cases. A general result is that the ov…
We propose a minimal model for the collective dynamics of opinion formation in the society, by modifying kinetic exchange dynamics studied in the context of income, money or wealth distributions in a society. This model has an intriguing spontaneous symmetry breaking transition.
The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, …
Collective decision-making with higher-order interactions on $d$-uniform hypergraphs
IMT School for Advanced Studies（意大利高等研究学院）；MoCLiS Research Group, Dschang, Cameroon.（喀麦隆德尚莫克利斯研究组）；Department of Mathematics and Namur Institute for Complex Systems, naXys Université de Namur（南锡大学数学系与南锡复杂系统研究所，naXys）；Faculty of Computer Science and Namur Institute for Complex Systems, naXys Université de Namur（南锡大学计算机科学与南锡复杂系统研究所，naXys）
Biswas-Chatterjee-Sen (BChS) kinetic exchange opinion model on modular networks
School of Computational & Integrative Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University（计算与整合科学学院，贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁大学）；Department of Physics, SRM University - AP（物理系，SRM大学-安得拉邦分校）
In recent months the figure of Greta Thunberg and the theme of climate changings quickly became the focus of the debate. This has lead to a polarization effect in opinion forming about the climate subject. Starting from the analysis of this phenomenon, we develop an opinion dynamics model in which several types of contrarians agents are considered. Each agent is supposed to have an opinion on several topics related to each other, thus the opinions being formed on these topics are also mutually dependent. The aim of the paper is to investigate the indirect effects of contrarians agents on the c…
The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex non-linear phenomenon whose investigation is just at the beginning. Both collective behaviour and personal view play an important role in this mechanism. In the present work we mimic the dynamics of opinion formation of a group of agents, represented by two state $\pm 1$, as a stochastic response of each of them to the opinion of his/her neighbours in the social network and to feedback from the average opinion of the whole. In the light of recent studies, a scale-free Barabási-Albert network has been selected to simulate …
Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient $g$ in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e.\ independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However,…
We propose a minimal multi-agent model for the collective dynamics of opinion formation in the society, by modifying kinetic exchange dynamics studied in the context of income, money or wealth distributions in a society. This model has an intriguing spontaneous symmetry breaking transition to polarized opinion state starting from non-polarized opinion state. In order to analyze the model, we introduce an iterative map version of the model, which has very similar statistical characteristics. An approximate theoretical analysis of the numerical results are also given, based on the iterative map …
The combined effects of collective beliefs and individual stubbornness in the dynamic of a public debate are investigated using the Galam sequential probabilistic model of opinion dynamics. The study is focused on pair interactions for which the bias produced by collective beliefs is the decisive factor to win the debate. The current value of that bias is a fixed external parameter. It is a constant of the problem not given to change. In contrast, stubbornness is an individual property. It results from external ingredients, which are susceptible to be modified during the debate. More precisely…
We revisit the no tie breaking 2-state Galam contrarian model of opinion dynamics for update groups of size 3. While the initial model assumes a constant density of contrarians a for both opinions, it now depends for each opinion on its global support. Proportionate contrarians are thus found to indeed preserve the former case main results. However, restricting the contrarian behavior to only the current collective majority, makes the dynamics more complex with novel features. For a density a<a_c=1/9 of one-sided contrarians, a chaotic basin is found in the fifty-fifty region separated from tw…
The question of how people form their opinion has fascinated economists and sociologists for quite some time. In many of the models, a group of people in a social network, each holding a numerical opinion, arrive at a shared opinion through repeated averaging with their neighbors in the network. Motivated by the observation that consensus is rarely reached in real opinion dynamics, we study a related sociological model in which individuals' intrinsic beliefs counterbalance the averaging process and yield a diversity of opinions. By interpreting the repeated averaging as best-response dynamics …
