In modern society people are being exposed to numerous information, with some of them being frequently repeated or more disruptive than others. In this paper we use a model of opinion dynamics to study how this news impact the society. In particular, our study aims to explain how the exposure of the society to certain events deeply change people's perception of the present and future. The evolution of opinions which we consider is influenced both by external information and the pressure of the society. The latter includes imitation, differentiation, homophily and its opposite, xenophobia. The combination of these ingredients gives rise to a collective memory effect, which is triggered by external information. In this paper we focus our attention on how this memory arises when the order of appearance of external news is random. We will show which characteristics a piece of news needs to have in order to be embedded in the society's memory. We will also provide an analytical way to measure how many information a society can remember when an extensive number of news items is presented. Finally we will show that, when a certain piece of news is present in the society's history, even a distorted version of it is sufficient to trigger the memory of the originally stored information.
The mass media plays a fundamental role in the formation of public opinion, either by defining the topics of discussion or by making an emphasis on certain issues. Directly or indirectly, people get informed by consuming news from the media. Naturally, two questions appear: What are the dynamics of the agenda and how the people become interested in their different topics? These questions cannot be answered without proper quantitative measures of agenda dynamics and public attention. In this work we study the agenda of newspapers in comparison with public interests by performing topic detection…
We study the opinion dynamics in a generalized voter model in which voters are additionally influenced by two antagonistic news sources, whose effect is to promote political polarization. We show that, as the influence of the news sources is increased, the mean time to reach consensus is anomalously long, the time to reach a politically polarized state is quite short, and the steady-state opinion distribution exhibits a transition from a near consensus state to a politically polarized state.
University College Groningen, University of Groningen（格罗宁根大学格罗宁根大学学院）；University of Twente（特文特大学）；Univ. Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；Grenoble INP（格勒诺布尔国立高等物理、数学与信息学院）
In online platforms, recommender systems are responsible for directing users to relevant contents. In order to enhance the users' engagement, recommender systems adapt their output to the reactions of the users, who are in turn affected by the recommended contents. In this work, we study a tractable analytical model of a user that interacts with an online news aggregator, with the purpose of making explicit the feedback loop between the evolution of the user's opinion and the personalised recommendation of contents. More specifically, we assume that the user is endowed with a scalar opinion ab…
The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between S…
In recent years networks have gained unprecedented attention in studying a broad range of topics, among them in complex systems research. In particular, multi-agent systems have seen an increased recognition of the importance of the interaction topology. It is now widely recognized that emergent phenomena can be highly sensitive to the structure of the interaction network connecting the system's components, and there is a growing body of abstract network classes, whose contributions to emergent dynamics are well-understood. However, much less understanding have yet been gained about the effect…
News sharing on social networks reveals how information disseminates among users. This process, constrained by user preferences and social ties, plays a key role in the formation of public opinion. In this work we study news sharing of main Argentinian media outlets in Twitter, using bipartite news-user networks, in order to understand if the emergence of affinity groups is driven by the underlying political polarization. We compare the results between an electoral and non-electoral year and between a set of politically active users and a control group. We found that users' behavior produces w…
Social susceptibility is defined and analyzed using data from CNN news website. The current models of opinion dynamics, voting, and herding in closed communities are extended, and the community's response to the injection of a group with predetermined and permanent opinions is calculated. A method to estimate the values of possible response in Internet communities that follow a specific developing subject is developed. The level of social influence in a community follows from the statistics of responses ("like" and "dislike" votes) to the comments written by the members of the same community. …
A general model of opinion dynamics is introduced in which each individual's opinion is measured on a bounded continuous spectrum. Each opinion is influenced heterogeneously by every other opinion in the population. It is demonstrated that consensus, polarisation and a spread of moderate opinions are all possible within this model. Using dynamic mean-field theory, we are able to identify the statistical features of the interactions between individuals that give rise to each of the aforementioned emergent phenomena. The nature of the transitions between each of the observed macroscopic states i…
University of Exeter（埃克塞特大学）；Oxford Internet Institute（牛津互联网研究院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；Meedan
Recent election surprises, regime changes, and political shocks indicate that political agendas have become more fast-moving and volatile. The ability to measure the complex dynamics of agenda change and capture the nature and extent of volatility in political systems is therefore more crucial than ever before. This study proposes a definition and operationalization of volatility that combines insights from political science, communications, information theory, and computational techniques. The proposed measures of fractionalization and agenda change encompass the shifting salience of issues i…
A key question of collective social behavior is related to the influence of Mass Media on public opinion. Different approaches have been developed to address quantitatively this issue, ranging from field experiments to mathematical models. In this work we propose a combination of tools involving natural language processing and time series analysis. We compare selected features of mass media news articles with measurable manifestation of public opinion. We apply our analysis to news articles belonging to the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. We compare variations in polls (as a proxy of public o…
In this age of Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, there is rapidly growing interest in understanding network-enabled opinion dynamics in large groups of autonomous agents. The phenomena of opinion polarization, the spread of propaganda and fake news, and the manipulation of sentiment are of interest to large numbers of organizations and people, some of whom are resource rich. Whether it is the more nefarious players such as foreign governments that are attempting to sway elections or large corporations that are trying to bend sentiment -- often quite surreptitiously, or it is more open and above…
In order to understand the development of common orientation of opinions in the modern world we propose a model of a society described as a large collection of agents that exchange their expressed opinions under the influence of their mutual interactions and external events. In particular we introduce an interaction bias which creates a collective memory effect such that the society is able to store and recall information coming from several external signals. Our model shows how the inner structure of the society and its future reactions can be shaped by its own history. We will provide an ana…
Vrije Universiteit Brussel（布鲁塞尔自由大学）；Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences（马克斯·普朗克数学科学研究所）
News website comment sections are spaces where potentially conflicting opinions and beliefs are voiced. Addressing questions of how to study such cultural and societal conflicts through technological means, the present article critically examines possibilities and limitations of machine-guided exploration and potential facilitation of on-line opinion dynamics. These investigations are guided by a discussion of an experimental observatory for mining and analyzing opinions from climate change-related user comments on news articles from the TheGuardian.com. This observatory combines causal mappin…
We present a toy model of opinion spreading in a society which combines a self-reinforcing mechanism with diffusion. The relative strength of these two mechanisms - called the affectability of the system - is a free parameter of the model. The model is run on a scale-free network and its asymptotic behaviour is investigated. A surprising emergent effect is observed: If every individual becomes more attentive to the opinions of others, the society as a whole switches from a plurality of nuanced opinions into the state of an absolute consensus on an extreme opinion. This counter-intuitive emerge…
Understanding how individuals change their opinions is essential to mitigate the harmful effect of fake news and stop opinion polarization. Building upon an extremely flexible opinion dynamics model that can capture the key microscopic mechanisms of social influence, the current paper elaborates a framework to find optimal control, which, thus, can be applied to a broad set of opinion dynamics settings. Using a combination of theoretical and computational approaches, I characterize the properties of optimal control and demonstrates how the elaborated framework can be applied to specific exampl…
Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allow…
We introduce a socially motivated extension of the voter model in which individual voters are also influenced by two opposing, fixed-opinion news sources. These sources forestall consensus and instead drive the population to a politically polarized state, with roughly half the population in each opinion state. Two types social networks for the voters are studied: (a) the complete graph of $N$ voters and, more realistically, (b) the two-clique graph with $N$ voters in each clique. For the complete graph, many dynamical properties are soluble within an annealed-link approximation, in which a lin…
We analyze the dynamical response of the world's financial community to various types of unexpected events, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks as they unfolded on a minute-by-minute basis. We find that there are various 'species' of news, characterized by how quickly the news get absorbed, how much meaning and importance is assigned to it by the community, and what subsequent actions are then taken. For example, the response to the unfolding events of 9/11 shows a gradual collective understanding of what was happening, rather than an immediate realization. For news items which are not simple…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reminded us how vaccination can be a divisive topic on which the public conversation is permeated by misleading claims, and thoughts tend to polarize, especially on online social networks. In this work, motivated by recent natural language processing techniques to systematically extract and quantify opinions from text messages, we present a differential framework for bivariate opinion formation dynamics that is coupled with a compartmental model for fake news dissemination. Thanks to a mean-field analysis we demonstrate that the resulting Fokker-Planck system permits to…
We attempt to explain stock market dynamics in terms of the interaction among three variables: market price, investor opinion and information flow. We propose a framework for such interaction and apply it to build a model of stock market dynamics which we study both empirically and theoretically. We demonstrate that this model replicates observed market behavior on all relevant timescales (from days to years) reasonably well. Using the model, we obtain and discuss a number of results that pose implications for current market theory and offer potential practical applications.
We investigate the impact of noise and topology on opinion diversity in social networks. We do so by extending well-established models of opinion dynamics to a stochastic setting where agents are subject both to assimilative forces by their local social interactions, as well as to idiosyncratic factors preventing their population from reaching consensus. We model the latter to account for both scenarios where noise is entirely exogenous to peer influence and cases where it is instead endogenous, arising from the agents' desire to maintain some uniqueness in their opinions. We derive a general …
Opinion dynamics have attracted the interest of researchers from different fields. Local interactions among individuals create interesting dynamics for the system as a whole. Such dynamics are important from a variety of perspectives. Group decision making, successful marketing, and constructing networks (in which consensus can be reached or prevented) are a few examples of existing or potential applications. The invention of the Internet has made the opinion fusion faster, unilateral, and on a whole different scale. Spread of fake news, propaganda, and election interferences have made it clea…
Individuals are increasingly exposed to news and opinion from beyond national borders in a world that is becoming more and more globalised. This news and opinion is often concentrated in clusters of ideological homophily such as political parties, factions or interest groups. But how does exposure to cross-border information affect the diffusion of ideas across national and ideological borders? Here we develop a non-linear mathematical model for the cross-border spread of two ideologies by using an epidemiological approach. The populations of each country are assumed to be a constant and homog…
In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters before elections. The dynamics of electoral consensus is studied as a function of time by investigating different possible scenarios and the effect of periodic surveys, on the opinions of a small community of voters represented as a network of agents connected by realistic social relationships. Our simulations show the possibility to manage opinion consensus…
It is known that individual opinions on different policy issues often align to a dominant ideological dimension (e.g. "left" vs. "right") and become increasingly polarized. We provide an agent-based model that reproduces these two stylized facts as emergent properties of an opinion dynamics in a multi-dimensional space of continuous opinions. The mechanisms for the change of agents' opinions in this multi-dimensional space are derived from cognitive dissonance theory and structural balance theory. We test assumptions from proximity voting and from directional voting regarding their ability to …
We propose an opinion dynamics model that combines processes of vanity and opinion propagation. The interactions take place between randomly chosen pairs. During an interaction, the agents propagate their opinions about themselves and about other people they know. Moreover, each individual is subject to vanity: if her interlocutor seems to value her highly, then she increases her opinion about this interlocutor. On the contrary she tends to decrease her opinion about those who seem to undervalue her. The combination of these dynamics with the hypothesis that the opinion propagation is more eff…
We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained realized market returns. By combining herding, the impact of external news and private information, we test within the same model the hypothesis that agents are rational versus irrational. We find that the stylized facts of financial markets are reproduced only when agents are over-confident and mis-attribute the success of news to predict return to herding effects, thereby providing positive feedbacks …
We propose a modified Vicsek-like model to study influence dynamics and opinion formation in social networks. We work on the premise that opinions of members of a group may be considered to be analogous to the direction of motion of a particle in space. The opinions are susceptible to change under the influence of familiar individuals who maintain similar beliefs. This is unlike the bounded-confidence models which solely rely on interactions based on closeness of opinions. The influence network evolves either when similar-minded individuals acquaint or when they fall out over their beliefs. Th…
