A key question of collective social behavior is related to the influence of Mass Media on public opinion. Different approaches have been developed to address quantitatively this issue, ranging from field experiments to mathematical models. In this work we propose a combination of tools involving natural language processing and time series analysis. We compare selected features of mass media news articles with measurable manifestation of public opinion. We apply our analysis to news articles belonging to the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. We compare variations in polls (as a proxy of public opinion) with changes in the connotation of the news (sentiment) or in the agenda (topics) of a selected group of media outlets. Our results suggest that the sentiment content by itself is not enough to understand the differences in polls, but the combination of topics coverage and sentiment content provides an useful insight of the context in which public opinion varies. The methodology employed in this work is far general and can be easily extended to other topics of interest.
World leaders have been increasingly using social media platforms as a tool for political communication. However, despite the growing research on governmental accounts on social media, virtually nothing is known about interactions among world leaders. Using a novel, cross-national dataset of Twitter communication for leaders of 193 countries for the period of 2012-2017, we construct retweet and mention networks to explore the patterns of leaders communication. We use social network analysis to conclude that the leaders interactions on social media closely resemble their interactions in the off…
Estimating influence on social media networks is an important practical and theoretical problem, especially because this new medium is widely exploited as a platform for disinformation and propaganda. This paper introduces a novel approach to influence estimation on social media networks and applies it to the real-world problem of characterizing active influence operations on Twitter during the 2017 French presidential elections. The new influence estimation approach attributes impact by accounting for narrative propagation over the network using a network causal inference framework applied to…
Using social media data -specially twitter -of the Chilean 2011-12 student movement, we study their social network evolution over time to analyze how leaders and participants self-organize and spread information. Based on a few key events of the student movement's timeline, we visualize the student network trajectory and analyze their structural and semantic properties. Therefore, in this paper we: i) describe the basic network topology of the 2011-12 Chilean massive student movement; ii) explore how the 180 key central nodes of the movement are connected, self-organize and spread information.…
Social media systems allow Internet users a congenial platform to freely express their thoughts and opinions. Although this property represents incredible and unique communication opportunities, it also brings along important challenges. Online hate speech is an archetypal example of such challenges. Despite its magnitude and scale, there is a significant gap in understanding the nature of hate speech on social media. In this paper, we provide the first of a kind systematic large scale measurement study of the main targets of hate speech in online social media. To do that, we gather traces fro…
Pre-Construction of Opinion Dynamics Considering Structural Inequality: Interdisciplinary Analysis of Complex Social Stratification, Media Influence, and Functionalism
Mass Media outlets have occupied the central role of the political scenario, and are persuasive in the process of opinion formation of the citizens. In particular, the study of the relationship between Mass Media and behaviour of citizens can be monitored during election times, given the accessibility of news related to the candidates and polls that precede the election's day. In this paper we present a novel two-dimensional data driven Mass Media model based on semantic analysis of newspapers and national election surveys, which we use to analyse how a single influence mechanism should behave…
IBM Research - India（IBM印度研究院）；Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）
We study the problem of analyzing influence of various factors affecting individual messages posted in social media. The problem is challenging because of various types of influences propagating through the social media network that act simultaneously on any user. Additionally, the topic composition of the influencing factors and the susceptibility of users to these influences evolve over time. This problem has not studied before, and off-the-shelf models are unsuitable for this purpose. To capture the complex interplay of these various factors, we propose a new non-parametric model called the…
Social media have been widely used to organize citizen movements. In 2012, 75% university and college students in Quebec, Canada, participated in mass protests against an increase in tuition fees, mainly organized using social media. To reduce public disruption, the government introduced special legislation designed to impede protest organization. Here, we show that the legislation changed the behaviour of social media users but not the overall structure of their social network on Twitter. Thus, users were still able to spread information to efficiently organize demonstrations using their soci…
Social media platforms are popular venues for fashion brand marketing and advertising. With the introduction of native advertising, users don't have to endure banner ads that hold very little saliency and are unattractive. Using images and subtle text overlays, even in a world of ever-depreciating attention span, brands can retain their audience and have a capacious creative potential. While an assortment of marketing strategies are conjectured, the subtle distinctions between various types of marketing strategies remain under-explored. This paper presents a qualitative analysis on the influen…
Using seasonal topics as the study subject, in this study, we focus on the timing gap between social media writing and online search behavior. To conduct our analysis, we used the mathematical model of search behavior, comprising the sociophysics approach. The seasonal topics selected were St.Valentine's Day, Halloween and New Year countdown. We also picked up the event like Christmas and Halloween. We analyzed the influence of blogs and Twitter on search behavior and found a deviation of interest in terms of timing. We also analyzed Japanese seasonal event of eating Eho-maki in February 3 and…
Information is crucial to the function of a democratic society where well-informed citizens can make rational political decisions. While in the past political entities were primarily utilizing newspaper and later television to inform the public, with the rise of the Internet and online social media, the political arena has transformed into a more complex structure. Now, more than ever, people express themselves online while mainstream news agencies attempt to seize the power of the Internet to spread their agenda. To grasp the political coexistence of mainstream media and online social media, …
Information propagation in social media depends not only on the static follower structure but also on the topic-specific user behavior. Hence novel models incorporating dynamic user behavior are needed. To this end, we propose a model for individual social media users, termed a genotype. The genotype is a per-topic summary of a user's interest, activity and susceptibility to adopt new information. We demonstrate that user genotypes remain invariant within a topic by adopting them for classification of new information spread in large-scale real networks. Furthermore, we extract topic-specific i…
MIT Lincoln Laboratory（麻省理工学院林肯实验室）；Novetta, LLC（诺维塔有限责任公司）；MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society（麻省理工学院数据、系统与社会研究所）
This study quantifies influence between media outlets by applying a novel methodology that uses causal effect estimation on networks and transformer language models. We demonstrate the obscured influence of state-controlled outlets over other outlets, regardless of orientation, by analyzing a large dataset of quotations from over 100 thousand articles published by the most prominent European and Russian traditional media outlets, appearing between May 2018 and October 2019. The analysis maps out the network structure of influence with news wire services serving as prominent bridges that connec…
While there has been much work examining the affects of social network structure on innovation adoption, models to date have lacked important features such as meta-populations reflecting real geography or influence from mass media forces. In this article, we show these are features crucial to producing more accurate predictions of a social contagion and technology adoption at the city level. Using data from the adoption of the popular micro-blogging platform, Twitter, we present a model of adoption on a network that places friendships in real geographic space and exposes individuals to mass me…
Social Coding Sites (SCSs) are social media services for sharing software development projects on the Web, and many open source projects are currently being developed on SCSs. One of the characteristics of SCSs is that they provide a platform on social networks that encourages collaboration between developers with the same interests and purpose. For example, external developers can easily report bugs and improvements to the project members. In this paper, we investigate keys to the success of projects on SCSs based on large data consisting of more than three hundred thousand projects. We focus…
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
With the growth of social media usage, social activists try to leverage this platform to raise the awareness related to a social issue and engage the public worldwide. The broad use of social media platforms in recent years, made it easier for the people to stay up-to-date on the news related to regional and worldwide events. While social media, namely Twitter, assists social movements to connect with more people and mobilize the movement, traditional media such as news articles help in spreading the news related to the events in a broader aspect. In this study, we analyze linguistic features …
Open-source journalism emerged as a new phenomenon in the media ecosystem, which uses crowdsourcing to fact-check and generate investigative reports for world events using open sources (e.g., social media). A particularly prominent example is Bellingcat. Bellingcat is known for its investigations on the illegal use of chemical weapons during the Syrian war, the Russian responsibility for downing flight MH17, the identification of the perpetrators in the attempted murder of Alexei Navalny, and war crimes in the Russo-Ukraine war. Crucial for this is social media in order to disseminate findings…
Many people rely on online social networks as sources of news and information, and the spread of media content with ideologies across the political spectrum influences online discussions and impacts actions offline. To examine the impact of media in online social networks, we generalize bounded-confidence models of opinion dynamics by incorporating media accounts as influencers in a network. We quantify partisanship of content with a continuous parameter on an interval, and we formulate higher-dimensional generalizations to incorporate content quality and increasingly nuanced political positio…
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced public health experts to develop contingent policies to stem the spread of infection, including measures such as partial/complete lockdowns. The effectiveness of these policies has varied with geography, population distribution, and effectiveness in implementation. Consequently, some nations (e.g., Taiwan, Haiti) have been more successful than others (e.g., United States) in curbing the outbreak. A data-driven investigation into effective public health policies of a country would allow public health experts in other nations to decide future courses of action to…
Understanding how political attention is divided and over what subjects is crucial for research on areas such as agenda setting, framing, and political rhetoric. Existing methods for measuring attention, such as manual labeling according to established codebooks, are expensive and can be restrictive. We describe two computational models that automatically distinguish topics in politicians' social media content. Our models---one supervised classifier and one unsupervised topic model---provide different benefits. The supervised classifier reduces the labor required to classify content according …
TIB – Leibniz Information Centre for Science and Technology（莱布尼茨科技与信息研究所）；L3S Research Center, Leibniz University Hannover（汉诺威莱布尼茨大学L3S研究中心）
Fake news is a severe problem in social media. In this paper, we present an empirical study on visual, textual, and multimodal models for the tasks of claim, claim check-worthiness, and conspiracy detection, all of which are related to fake news detection. Recent work suggests that images are more influential than text and often appear alongside fake text. To this end, several multimodal models have been proposed in recent years that use images along with text to detect fake news on social media sites like Twitter. However, the role of images is not well understood for claim detection, specifi…
In social and online media, influencers have traditionally been understood as highly visible individuals. Recent outcomes suggest that people are likely to mimic influencers' behavior, which can be exploited, for instance, in marketing strategies. Also in the Games User Research field, the interest in studying player social networks has emerged due to the heavy reliance on online influencers in marketing campaigns for games, as well as in keeping players engaged. Despite the inherent value of those individuals, it is still difficult to identify influencers, as the definition of influencers is …
We investigate the predictive power behind the language of food on social media. We collect a corpus of over three million food-related posts from Twitter and demonstrate that many latent population characteristics can be directly predicted from this data: overweight rate, diabetes rate, political leaning, and home geographical location of authors. For all tasks, our language-based models significantly outperform the majority-class baselines. Performance is further improved with more complex natural language processing, such as topic modeling. We analyze which textual features have most predic…
This work analyses surprising elections, and attempts to quantify the notion of surprise in elections. A voter is surprised if their estimate of the winner (assumed to be based on a combination of the preferences of their social connections and popular media predictions) is different from the true winner. A voter's social connections are assumed to consist of contacts on social media and geographically proximate people. We propose a simple mathematical model for combining the global information (traditional media) as well as the local information (local neighbourhood) of a voter in the case of…
Online social networks (OSNs) enable researchers to study the social universe at a previously unattainable scale. The worldwide impact and the necessity to sustain their rapid growth emphasize the importance to unravel the laws governing their evolution. We present a quantitative two-parameter model which reproduces the entire topological evolution of a quasi-isolated OSN with unprecedented precision from the birth of the network. This allows us to precisely gauge the fundamental macroscopic and microscopic mechanisms involved. Our findings suggest that the coupling between the real pre-existi…
University of North Carolina at Charlotte（北卡罗来纳大学夏洛特分校）
Online social media, periodically serves as a platform for cascading polarizing topics of conversation. The inherent community structure present in online social networks (homophily) and the advent of fringe outlets like Gab have created online "echo chambers" that amplify the effects of polarization, which fuels detrimental behavior. Recently, in October 2018, Gab made headlines when it was revealed that Robert Bowers, the individual behind the Pittsburgh Synagogue massacre, was an active member of this social media site and used it to express his anti-Semitic views and discuss conspiracy the…
This report gives a brief overview of the origin of social networks and their most popular manifestation in the modern era - the Online Social Networks (OSNs) or social media. It further discusses the positive and negative implications of OSNs on human society. The coupling of Data Science and social media (social media mining) is then put forward as a powerful tool to overcome the current challenges and pave the path for futuristic advancements
Analyzing X's Web of Influence: Dissecting News Sharing Dynamics through Credibility and Popularity with Transfer Entropy and Multiplex Network Measures
NFT or Non-Fungible Token is a token that certifies a digital asset to be unique. A wide range of assets including, digital art, music, tweets, memes, are being sold as NFTs. NFT-related content has been widely shared on social media sites such as Twitter. We aim to understand the dominant factors that influence NFT asset valuation. Towards this objective, we create a first-of-its-kind dataset linking Twitter and OpenSea (the largest NFT marketplace) to capture social media profiles and linked NFT assets. Our dataset contains 245,159 tweets posted by 17,155 unique users, directly linking 62,99…
Over the past years, political events and public opinion on the Web have been allegedly manipulated by accounts dedicated to spreading disinformation and performing malicious activities on social media. These accounts hereafter referred to as "Pathogenic Social Media (PSM)" accounts, are often controlled by terrorist supporters, water armies or fake news writers and hence can pose threats to social media and general public. Understanding and analyzing PSMs could help social media firms devise sophisticated and automated techniques that could be deployed to stop them from reaching their audienc…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, "Chinese Virus" emerged as a controversial term for coronavirus. To some, it may seem like a neutral term referring to the physical origin of the virus. To many others, however, the term is in fact attaching ethnicity to the virus. While both arguments appear reasonable, quantitative analysis of the term's real-world usage is lacking to shed light on the issues behind the controversy. In this paper, we attempt to fill this gap. To model the substantive difference of tweets with controversial terms and those with non-controversial terms, we apply topic modeling and…
At the time of writing, the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused severe impacts on society, economy and people's daily lives. People constantly express their opinions on various aspects of the pandemic on social media, making user-generated content an important source for understanding public emotions and concerns. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive analysis on the affective trajectories of the American people and the Chinese people based on Twitter and Weibo posts between January 20th, 2020 and May 11th 2020. Specifically, by identifying people's sentiments, em…
Many years after online social networks exceeded our collective attention, social influence is still built on attention capital. Quality is not a prerequisite for viral spreading, yet large diffusion cascades remain the hallmark of a social influencer. Consequently, our exposure to low-quality content and questionable influence is expected to increase. Since the conception of influence maximization frameworks, multiple content performance metrics became available, albeit raising the complexity of influence analysis. In this paper, we examine and consolidate a diverse set of content engagement …
Interest surrounding cryptocurrencies, digital or virtual currencies that are used as a medium for financial transactions, has grown tremendously in recent years. The anonymity surrounding these currencies makes investors particularly susceptible to fraud---such as "pump and dump" scams---where the goal is to artificially inflate the perceived worth of a currency, luring victims into investing before the fraudsters can sell their holdings. Because of the speed and relative anonymity offered by social platforms such as Twitter and Telegram, social media has become a preferred platform for scamm…
Individuals modify their opinions towards a topic based on their social interactions. Opinion evolution models conceptualize the change of opinion as a uni-dimensional continuum, and the effect of influence is built by the group size, the network structures, or the relations among opinions within the group. However, how to model the personal opinion evolution process under the effect of the online social influence as a function remains unclear. Here, we show that the uni-dimensional continuous user opinions can be represented by compressed high-dimensional word embeddings, and its evolution ca…
Databases of highly networked individuals have been indispensable in studying narratives and influence on social media. To support studies on Twitter in India, we present a systematically categorised database of accounts of influence on Twitter in India, identified and annotated through an iterative process of friends, networks, and self-described profile information, verified manually. We built an initial set of accounts based on the friend network of a seed set of accounts based on real-world renown in various fields, and then snowballed "friends of friends" multiple times, and rank ordered …
Social media presents an opportunity for people to share content that they find to be significant, funny, or notable. No single piece of content will appeal to all users, but are there systematic variations between users that can help us better understand information propagation? We conducted an experiment exploring social media usage during disaster scenarios, combining electroencephalogram (EEG), personality surveys, and prompts to share social media, we show how personality not only drives willingness to engage with social media but also helps to determine what type of content users find co…
Advancements in distributed ledger technologies are driving the rise of blockchain-based social media platforms such as Steemit, where users interact with each other in similar ways as conventional social networks. These platforms are autonomously managed by users using decentralized consensus protocols in a cryptocurrency ecosystem. The deep integration of social networks and blockchains in these platforms provides potential for numerous cross-domain research studies that are of interest to both the research communities. However, it is challenging to process and analyze large volumes of raw S…
The ongoing Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic highlights the inter-connectedness of our present-day globalized world. With social distancing policies in place, virtual communication has become an important source of (mis)information. As increasing number of people rely on social media platforms for news, identifying misinformation and uncovering the nature of online discourse around COVID-19 has emerged as a critical task. To this end, we collected streaming data related to COVID-19 using the Twitter API, starting March 1, 2020. We identified unreliable and misleading contents based on fact-chec…
