模拟跨界意识形态竞争的动态
Modelling the dynamics of cross-border ideological competition
摘要:
在一个越来越全球化的世界里,人们越来越多地接触到来自国界之外的新闻和观点。这种新闻和意见往往集中在意识形态上的同质性集群,如政党,派别或利益集团。但是,接触跨境信息如何影响思想跨越国家和意识形态边界的传播?在这里,我们开发了一个非线性的数学模型的跨境传播的两种意识形态,通过使用流行病学的方法。假设每个国家的人口是恒定的,均匀混合的。我们数值求解微分方程组,并展示少数意识形态影响力的微小变化如何引发全球政治平衡的变化。
英文摘要:
Individuals are increasingly exposed to news and opinion from beyond national borders in a world that is becoming more and more globalised. This news and opinion is often concentrated in clusters of ideological homophily such as political parties, factions or interest groups. But how does exposure to cross-border information affect the diffusion of ideas across national and ideological borders? Here we develop a non-linear mathematical model for the cross-border spread of two ideologies by using an epidemiological approach. The populations of each country are assumed to be a constant and homogeneously mixed. We solve the system of differential equations numerically and show how small changes in the influence of a minority ideology can trigger shifts in the global political equilibrium.
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