In recent years networks have gained unprecedented attention in studying a broad range of topics, among them in complex systems research. In particular, multi-agent systems have seen an increased recognition of the importance of the interaction topology. It is now widely recognized that emergent phenomena can be highly sensitive to the structure of the interaction network connecting the system's components, and there is a growing body of abstract network classes, whose contributions to emergent dynamics are well-understood. However, much less understanding have yet been gained about the effects of network dynamics, especially in cases when the emergent phenomena feeds back to and changes the underlying network topology.
Our work starts with the application of the network approach to discrete choice analysis, a standard method in econometric estimation, where the classic approach is grounded in individual choice and lacks social network influences. In this paper, we extend our earlier results by considering the endogenous dynamics of social networks. In particular, we study a model where the behavior adopted by the agents feeds back to the underlying network structure, and report results obtained by computational multi-agent based simulations
We study an endogenous opinion (or, belief) dynamics model where we endogenize the social network that models the link (`trust') weights between agents. Our network adjustment mechanism is simple: an agent increases her weight for another agent if that agent has been close to truth (whence, our adjustment criterion is `past performance'). Moreover, we consider multiply biased agents that do not learn in a fully rational manner but are subject to persuasion bias - they learn in a DeGroot manner, via a simple `rule of thumb' - and that have biased initial beliefs. In addition, we also study this…
We investigate the effects of external and autonomous global interaction fields on an adaptive network of social agents with an opinion formation dynamics based on a simple imitation rule. We study the competition between global fields and adaptive rewiring on the space of parameters of the system. The model represents an adaptive society subject to global mass media such as a directed opinion influence or feedback of endogenous cultural trends. We show that, in both situations, global mass media contribute to consensus and to prevent the fragmentation of the social network induced by the coev…
In modern society people are being exposed to numerous information, with some of them being frequently repeated or more disruptive than others. In this paper we use a model of opinion dynamics to study how this news impact the society. In particular, our study aims to explain how the exposure of the society to certain events deeply change people's perception of the present and future. The evolution of opinions which we consider is influenced both by external information and the pressure of the society. The latter includes imitation, differentiation, homophily and its opposite, xenophobia. The …
Understanding the evolution of collective beliefs is of critical importance to get insights on the political trends as well as on social tastes and opinions. In particular, it is pivotal to develop analytical models that can predict the beliefs dynamics and capture the interdependence of opinions on different subjects. In this paper we tackle this issue also accounting for the individual endogenous process of opinion evolution, as well as repulsive interactions between individuals' opinions that may arise in the presence of an adversarial attitude of the individuals. Using a mean field approac…
We present a toy model of opinion spreading in a society which combines a self-reinforcing mechanism with diffusion. The relative strength of these two mechanisms - called the affectability of the system - is a free parameter of the model. The model is run on a scale-free network and its asymptotic behaviour is investigated. A surprising emergent effect is observed: If every individual becomes more attentive to the opinions of others, the society as a whole switches from a plurality of nuanced opinions into the state of an absolute consensus on an extreme opinion. This counter-intuitive emerge…
We investigate the impact of noise and topology on opinion diversity in social networks. We do so by extending well-established models of opinion dynamics to a stochastic setting where agents are subject both to assimilative forces by their local social interactions, as well as to idiosyncratic factors preventing their population from reaching consensus. We model the latter to account for both scenarios where noise is entirely exogenous to peer influence and cases where it is instead endogenous, arising from the agents' desire to maintain some uniqueness in their opinions. We derive a general …
This paper suggests that business cycles may be a manifestation of coupled real economy and stock market dynamics and describes a mechanism that can generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles. To this end, we seek to incorporate into the macroeconomic framework a dynamic stock market model based on opinion interactions (Gusev et al., 2015). We derive this model from microfoundations, provide its empirical verification, demonstrate that it contains the efficient market as a particular regime and establish a link through which macroeconomic models can be attached for…
A general model of opinion dynamics is introduced in which each individual's opinion is measured on a bounded continuous spectrum. Each opinion is influenced heterogeneously by every other opinion in the population. It is demonstrated that consensus, polarisation and a spread of moderate opinions are all possible within this model. Using dynamic mean-field theory, we are able to identify the statistical features of the interactions between individuals that give rise to each of the aforementioned emergent phenomena. The nature of the transitions between each of the observed macroscopic states i…
In this paper we study the impact of active participation -- or deliberately seeking out other agents with an aim to convince them -- on the dynamics of consensus formation. For this purpose, we propose an adaptive network model in which two processes shape opinion dynamics at interwoven time-scales: (i) agents adapt their opinions subject to influence from social network neighbours who hold opinions within a tolerance interval $δ$ and (ii) agents rewire network connections with an aim to maximize their own influence on overall system opinion. We study this system in both an endogenous setting…
We propose an opinion dynamics model that combines processes of vanity and opinion propagation. The interactions take place between randomly chosen pairs. During an interaction, the agents propagate their opinions about themselves and about other people they know. Moreover, each individual is subject to vanity: if her interlocutor seems to value her highly, then she increases her opinion about this interlocutor. On the contrary she tends to decrease her opinion about those who seem to undervalue her. The combination of these dynamics with the hypothesis that the opinion propagation is more eff…
In order to understand the development of common orientation of opinions in the modern world we propose a model of a society described as a large collection of agents that exchange their expressed opinions under the influence of their mutual interactions and external events. In particular we introduce an interaction bias which creates a collective memory effect such that the society is able to store and recall information coming from several external signals. Our model shows how the inner structure of the society and its future reactions can be shaped by its own history. We will provide an ana…
It is known that individual opinions on different policy issues often align to a dominant ideological dimension (e.g. "left" vs. "right") and become increasingly polarized. We provide an agent-based model that reproduces these two stylized facts as emergent properties of an opinion dynamics in a multi-dimensional space of continuous opinions. The mechanisms for the change of agents' opinions in this multi-dimensional space are derived from cognitive dissonance theory and structural balance theory. We test assumptions from proximity voting and from directional voting regarding their ability to …
Opinion formation is a process with strong implications for public policy. In controversial debates with large consequences, the public opinion is often trapped in a fifty-fifty stalemate, jeopardizing broadly accepted political decisions. Emergent effects from millions of private discussions make it hard to understand or influence this kind of opinion dynamics. Here we demonstrate that repulsion from opinions favors fifty-fifty stalemates. We study a voter model where agents can have two opinions or an undecided state in-between. In pairwise discussions, undecided agents can be convinced or r…
We propose a modified Vicsek-like model to study influence dynamics and opinion formation in social networks. We work on the premise that opinions of members of a group may be considered to be analogous to the direction of motion of a particle in space. The opinions are susceptible to change under the influence of familiar individuals who maintain similar beliefs. This is unlike the bounded-confidence models which solely rely on interactions based on closeness of opinions. The influence network evolves either when similar-minded individuals acquaint or when they fall out over their beliefs. Th…
In recent years, statistical physics' methodologies have proven extremely successful in offering insights into the mechanisms that govern social interactions. However, the question of whether these models are able to capture trends observed in real-world datasets is hardly addressed in the current literature. With this work we aim at bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and validation with data. In particular, we propose a model for opinion dynamics on a social network in the presence of external triggers, framing the interpretation of the model in the context of misbehavior spreading…
We study the dynamics of the naming game as an opinion formation model on time-varying social networks. This agent-based model captures the essential features of the agreement dynamics by means of a memory-based negotiation process. Our study focuses on the impact of time-varying properties of the social network of the agents on the naming game dynamics. In particular, we perform a computational exploration of this model using simulations on top of real networks. We investigate the outcomes of the dynamics on two different types of time-varying data - (i) the networks vary on a day-to-day basi…
Reputation is a central element of social communications, be it with human or artificial intelligence (AI), and as such can be the primary target of malicious communication strategies. There is already a vast amount of literature on trust networks addressing this issue and proposing ways to simulate these networks dynamics using Bayesian principles and involving Theory of Mind models. The main issue for these simulations is usually the amount of information that can be stored and is usually solved by discretising variables and using hard thresholds. Here we propose a novel approach to the way …
Discerning media bias within a network of political allies: an analytic condition for disruption by partisans
University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）；Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery (OzGrav), University of Melbourne（澳大利亚研究委员会引力波发现卓越中心（OzGrav），墨尔本大学）
We argue that when a social convergence mechanism exists and is strong enough, one should expect the emergence of a well defined "field", i.e. a slowly evolving, local quantity around which individual attributes fluctuate in a finite range. This condensation phenomenon is well illustrated by the Deffuant-Weisbuch opinion model for which we provide a natural extension to allow for spatial heterogeneities. We show analytically and numerically that the resulting dynamics of the emergent field is a noisy diffusion equation that has a slow dynamics. This random diffusion equation reproduces the lon…
A neural network with a learning algorithm optimized by information theory entropic dynamics is used to build an agent dubbed Homo Entropicus. The algorithm can be described at a macroscopic level in terms of aggregate variables interpretable as quantitative markers of proto-emotions. We use systems of such interacting neural networks to construct a framework for modeling societies that show complex emergent behavior. A few applications are presented to investigate the role the interactions of opinions about multidimensional issues and trust on the information source play on the state of the a…
Stochastic Networked Governance: Bridging Econophysics and Institutional Dynamics in a Positive-Sum Agent-Based Model
Anugrah Memorial College（安格拉萨学院）；Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (IGIB), Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)（印度科学和技术研究委员会基因组与整合生物学研究所）；Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR)（科学与创新研究学院）
