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arXiv 2302.01028cs.SIphysics.soc-ph
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社交媒体上的意见极化建模:应用于意大利的Covid-19疫苗接种犹豫

Modeling opinion polarization on social media: application to Covid-19 vaccination hesitancy in Italy

Jonathan Franceschi, Lorenzo Pareschi, Elena Bellodi, Marco Gavanelli, Marco Bresadola

摘要:

SARS-CoV-2大流行提醒我们,疫苗接种可能是一个引起分歧的话题,公众对话中充斥着误导性的说法,思想往往会两极分化,尤其是在在线社交网络上。在这项工作中,最近的自然语言处理技术的动机,系统地提取和量化的意见,从文本消息,我们提出了一个差分框架的双变量意见形成动态,再加上一个房室模型假新闻传播。由于平均场分析,我们表明,由此产生的福克-普朗克系统允许重现双峰分布的意见,观察到的极化动力学。然后将该模型应用于来自意大利社交媒体平台的情感分析数据,以分析关于新冠疫苗接种的意见演变。我们通过数值模拟表明,该模型能够正确地描述在疫苗犹豫数据集中观察到的双峰意见结构的形成,这是封闭的在线社区内发生的已知极化效应的见证。

英文摘要:

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reminded us how vaccination can be a divisive topic on which the public conversation is permeated by misleading claims, and thoughts tend to polarize, especially on online social networks. In this work, motivated by recent natural language processing techniques to systematically extract and quantify opinions from text messages, we present a differential framework for bivariate opinion formation dynamics that is coupled with a compartmental model for fake news dissemination. Thanks to a mean-field analysis we demonstrate that the resulting Fokker-Planck system permits to reproduce bimodal distributions of opinions as observed in polarization dynamics. The model is then applied to sentiment analysis data from social media platforms in Italy, in order to analyze the evolution of opinions about Covid-19 vaccination. We show through numerical simulations that the model is capable to describe correctly the formation of the bimodal opinion structure observed in the vaccine-hesitant dataset, which is witness of the known polarization effects that happen within closed online communities.

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