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arXiv 2406.09142cs.SIcs.CY
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反疫苗推文对新冠疫苗接种、病例和死亡的影响

Effects of Antivaccine Tweets on COVID-19 Vaccinations, Cases, and Deaths

Indiana University(印第安纳大学);RTI International(RTI国际研究院)

John Bollenbacher, Filippo Menczer, John Bryden

AI总结:

该研究通过分析社交媒体上的反疫苗推文,发现其对疫苗接种率、病例和死亡有显著影响,提出了一种将在线言论与流行病结果联系起来的模型。

摘要:

尽管美国广泛提供了新冠疫苗,并且在大流行期间这些疫苗在减少住院和死亡方面效果显著,但2021年大多数美国人选择不接种疫苗。近期研究表明,疫苗 misinformation 会影响受控环境中的意向,但并未将其与现实世界中的疫苗接种率联系起来。在这里,我们呈现了观察到的抗疫苗内容暴露与疫苗接种率之间的因果关系的证据,并估计了这种影响的规模。我们提出了一种包含疫苗接种、疫苗犹豫和抗疫苗内容暴露的 compartmental 疫情模型。我们拟合模型以确定美国各县对在线抗疫苗内容的暴露地理模式解释了相同县的疫苗接种率下降。我们发现,Twitter 上抗疫苗内容的暴露导致了大约14,000人在美国2021年2月至8月期间拒绝接种疫苗,导致至少545额外病例和8额外死亡。这项工作提供了一种将在线言论与线下流行病结果联系起来的方法。我们的发现应为社交媒体管理政策以及公共卫生干预措施提供信息。

英文摘要:

Despite the wide availability of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States and their effectiveness in reducing hospitalizations and mortality during the pandemic, a majority of Americans chose not to be vaccinated during 2021. Recent work shows that vaccine misinformation affects intentions in controlled settings, but does not link it to real-world vaccination rates. Here, we present observational evidence of a causal relationship between exposure to antivaccine content and vaccination rates, and estimate the size of this effect. We present a compartmental epidemic model that includes vaccination, vaccine hesitancy, and exposure to antivaccine content. We fit the model to data to determine that a geographical pattern of exposure to online antivaccine content across US counties explains reduced vaccine uptake in the same counties. We find observational evidence that exposure to antivaccine content on Twitter caused about 14,000 people to refuse vaccination between February and August 2021 in the US, resulting in at least 545 additional cases and 8 additional deaths. This work provides a methodology for linking online speech with offline epidemic outcomes. Our findings should inform social media moderation policy as well as public health interventions.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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