The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex non-linear phenomenon whose investigation is just at the beginning. Both collective behaviour and personal view play an important role in this mechanism. In the present work we mimic the dynamics of opinion formation of a group of agents, represented by two state $\pm 1$, as a stochastic response of each of them to the opinion of his/her neighbours in the social network and to feedback from the average opinion of the whole. In the light of recent studies, a scale-free Barabási-Albert network has been selected to simulate the topology of the interactions. A turbulent-like dynamics, characterized by an intermittent behaviour, is observed for a certain range of the model parameters. The problem of uncertainty in decision taking is also addressed both from a topological point of view, using random and targeted removal of agents from the network, and by implementing a three state model, where the third state, zero, is related to the information available to each agent. Finally, the results of the model are tested against the best known network of social interactions: the stock market. A time series of daily closures of the Dow Jones index has been used as an indicator of the possible applicability of our model in the financial context. Good qualitative agreement is found.
We propose an opinion dynamics model based on Latané's social impact theory. Actors in this model are heterogeneous and, in addition to opinions, are characterised by their varying levels of persuasion and support. The model is tested for two and three initial opinions randomly distributed among actors. We examine how the noise (randomness of behaviour) and the flow of information among actors affect the formation and spread of opinions. Our main research involves the process of opinion formation and finding phases of the system in terms of parameters describing noise and flow of the informati…
Processes of individual attitude formation and their macroscopic consequences have become an intriguing research topic, and agent-based models of opinion formation have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. This study conducted an agent-based simulation and examined the role of mass media in a noisy opinion formation process, where opinion heterogeneity is preserved by a weak intensity of assimilation and errors accompanying opinion modifications. In a computational model, agents conformed to their neighbours' opinions in social networks. In addition, each agent tended to be influenced …
We have presented a numerical model of a collective opinion formation procedure to explain political phenomena such as two-party and multi-party systems in politics, political unrest, military coup d'etats and netizen revolutions. Nonlinear interaction with binary and independent decision making processes can yield various collective behaviors or collective political opinions. Statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics may provide useful tools to study various socio-political dynamics.
We introduce a statistical physics model for opinion dynamics on random networks where agents adopt the opinion held by the majority of their direct neighbors only if the fraction of these neighbors exceeds a certain threshold, p_u. We find a transition from total final consensus to a mixed phase where opinions coexist amongst the agents. The relevant parameters are the relative sizes in the initial opinion distribution within the population and the connectivity of the underlying network. As the order parameter we define the asymptotic state of opinions. In the phase diagram we find regions of…
Formal models of opinion formation commonly represent an individual's opinion by a value on a fixed opinion interval. We propose an alternative modeling method wherein interpretation is only provided to the relative positions of opinions vis-à-vis each other. This method is then considered in a similar setting as the discrete-time Altafini model (an extension of the well-known DeGroot model), but with more general influence weights. Even in a linear framework, the model can describe, in the long run, polarization, dynamics with a periodic pattern, and (modulus) consensus formation. In addition…
We propose and study a stochastic binary opinion model where agents in a group are considered to hold an opinion of 0 or 1 at each moment. An agent in the group updates his/her opinion based on the group's opinion configuration and his/her \emph{personality}. Considering the number of agents with opinion 1 as a continuous time Markov process, we analyze the long-term probabilities for large population size in relation to the personalities of the group. In particular, we focus on the question of ``balance'' where both opinions are present in nearly equal numbers as opposed to ``dominance'' wher…
We study an opinion formation model that takes into account that individuals have diverse preferences when forming their opinion regarding a particular issue. We show that the system exhibits a phenomenon called "diversity-induced resonance"[Tessone et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 194101 (2006)], by which an external influence (for example advertising, or fashion trends) is better followed by populations having the right degree of diversity in their preferences, rather than others where the individuals are identical or have too different preferences. We support our findings by numerical simulation…
A way to simulate the basic interactions between two individuals with different opinions, in the context of strategic game theory, is proposed. Various games are considered, which produce different kinds of opinion formation dynamics. First, by assuming that all individuals (players) are equals, we obtain the bounded confidence model of continuous opinion dynamics proposed by Deffuant et al. In such a model a tolerance threshold is defined, such that individuals with difference in opinion larger than the threshold can not interact. Then, we consider that the individuals have different inclinat…
Diffusion-driven pattern formation in an opinion dynamical network model
Helmholtz Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity (HIFMB)（赫尔姆霍兹功能海洋生物多样性研究所）；Carl-von-Ossietzky University, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment（卡尔·冯·奥西茨基大学，海洋环境化学与生物学研究所）；Alfred-Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research（阿尔弗雷德·魏格纳研究所（AWI），赫尔姆霍兹极地海洋研究中心）
We investigate different opinion formation models on adaptive network topologies. Depending on the dynamical process, rewiring can either (i) lead to the elimination of interactions between agents in different states, and accelerate the convergence to a consensus state or break the network in non-interacting groups or (ii) counter-intuitively, favor the existence of diverse interacting groups for exponentially long times. The mean-field analysis allows to elucidate the mechanisms at play. Strikingly, allowing the interacting agents to bear more than one opinion at the same time drastically cha…
In human societies opinion formation is mediated by social interactions, consequently taking place on a network of relationships and at the same time influencing the structure of the network and its evolution. To investigate this coevolution of opinions and social interaction structure we develop a dynamic agent-based network model, by taking into account short range interactions like discussions between individuals, long range interactions like a sense for overall mood modulated by the attitudes of individuals, and external field corresponding to outside influence. Moreover, individual biases…
We analyze a simple opinion formation model consisting of two parties, A and B, and a group I, of undecided agents. We assume that the supporters of parties A and B do not interact among them, but only interact through the group I, and that there is a nonzero probability of a spontaneous change of opinion (A->I, B->I). From the master equation, and via van Kampen's Omega-expansion approach, we have obtained the "macroscopic" evolution equation, as well as the Fokker-Planck equation governing the fluctuations around the deterministic behavior. Within the same approach, we have also obtained inf…
In this work, we investigate the effect of social media on the process of opinion formation in a human population. This effect is modeled as an external field in the dynamics of the two-dimensional Sznajd model with a probability P for an agent to follow the social media. We investigate the evolution of magnetization, the distribution of decision time and the average relaxation time in the presence of the external field. Our results suggest that the average relaxation time on the lattice of size L follows a power law, where the exponent depends on the probability P. We also show that phase tra…
Convex Regions of Opinion Dynamics, Approaches to the Complexity of Binary Consensus with Reference to Addiction and Obliviousness: Integrated Dimer Model Perspective
We study opinion dynamics over multiplex networks where agents interact with bounded confidence. Namely, two neighbouring individuals exchange opinions and compromise if their opinions do not differ by more than a given threshold. In literature, agents are generally assumed to have a homogeneous confidence bound. Here, we study analytically and numerically opinion evolution over structured networks characterised by multiple layers with respective confidence thresholds and general initial opinion distributions. Through rigorous probability analysis, we show analytically the critical thresholds …
Among the different disciplines in the social, behavioral and economic sciences, a fundamental class of problems is related to the prediction of the final state of the presence of individual opinions in a large population. The main aspects investigated in the opinion dynamics are related to the possibility of reaching an agreement and the time needed. In general a consensus model allows to understand if a set of interacting agents can reach a consensus when choosing among several options: political vote, opinions, cultural features are well-known examples of them. Opinion dynamics models then …
The dynamical process of opinion formation within a model using a local majority opinion updating rule is studied numerically in networks with the small-world geometrical property. The network is one in which shortcuts are added to randomly chosen pairs of nodes in an underlying regular lattice. The presence of a small number of shortcuts is found to shorten the time to reach a consensus significantly. The effects of having shortcuts in a lattice of fixed spatial dimension are shown to be analogous to that of increasing the spatial dimension in regular lattices. The shortening of the consensus…
We present a short review based on the nonlinear $q$-voter model about problems and methods raised within statistical physics of opinion formation (SPOOF). We describe relations between models of opinion formation, developed by physicists, and theoretical models of social response, known in social psychology. We draw attention to issues that are interesting for social psychologists and physicists. We show examples of studies directly inspired by social psychology like: "independence vs. anticonformity" or "personality vs. situation". We summarize the results that have been already obtained and…
We study the contrarian voter model for opinion formation in a society under the influence of an external oscillating propaganda and stochastic noise. Each agent of the population can hold one of two possible opinions on a given issue --against or in favor, and interacts with its neighbors following either an imitation dynamics (voter behavior) or an anti-alignment dynamics (contrarian behavior): each agent adopts the opinion of a random neighbor with a time-dependent probability $p(t)$, or takes the opposite opinion with probability $1-p(t)$. The imitation probability $p(t)$ is controlled by …
We investigate the opinion formation among the peoples and multiple political parties using the one dimensional relativistic Boltzmann-Vlasov equation for multi-components. A political party is constituted of politicians. The opinion formation depends on self-thinkings of peoples and politicians, and the constraint of the political party over opinions of politicians, when we restrict ourselves to the conciliatory exchange of opinions between two individuals. In particular, shock like profiles are obtained in the distribution of opinions of peoples, when the self-thinking of politicians are abs…
In this work we study a 3-state opinion formation model considering two distinct mechanisms, namely independence and conviction. Independence is introduced in the model as a noise, by means of a probability of occurrence $q$. On the other hand, conviction acts as a disorder in the system, and it is introduced by two discrete probability distributions. We analyze the effects of such two mechanisms on the phase transitions of the model, and we found that the critical exponents are universal over the order-disorder frontier, presenting the same universality class of the mean-field Ising model. In…
Most previous works on opinion modeling lack the simultaneous study of individual mental activity and group behavior. This paper is motivated to propose an agent-based online opinion formation model based on attitude change theory, group behavior theory and evolutionary game theory in the perspective of sociology and psychology. In this model, there are three factors influencing the persuasion process, including credibility of the leaders, characteristic of the recipient, and group environment. The proposed model is applied to Twitter to analyze the influence of topic type, parameter changing,…
Motivated by recent successes in model-based pre-election polling, we propose a kinetic model for opinion formation which includes voter demographics and socio-economic factors like age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income and other measurable factors like behaviour in previous elections or referenda as a key driver in the opinion formation dynamics. The model is based on Toscani's kinetic opinion formation model and the leader-follower model of Düring et al., and leads to a system of coupled Boltzmann-type equations and associated, approximate Fokker-Planck-type systems. Numerical example…
Geometric realization of opinion is considered as a simplex and the opinion space of a group of individuals is a simplicial complex whose topological features are monitored in the process of opinion formation. The agents are physically located on the nodes of the scale-free network. Social interactions include all concepts of social dynamics present in the mainstream models augmented by four additional interaction mechanisms which depend on the local properties of opinions and their overlapping properties. The results pertaining to the formation of consensus are of particular interest. An anal…
A simple model of opinion formation dynamics in which binary-state agents make up their opinions due to the influence of agents in a local neighborhood is studied using different network topologies. Each agent uses two different strategies, the Sznajd rule with a probability $q$ and the Galam majority rule (without inertia) otherwise; being $q$ a parameter of the system. Initially, the binary-state agents may have opinions (at random) against or in favor about a certain topic. The time evolution of the system is studied using different network topologies, starting from different initial opinio…
In the model for continuous opinion dynamics introduced by Hegselmann and Krause, each individual moves to the average opinion of all individuals within an area of confidence. In this work we study the effects of noise in this system. With certain probability, individuals are given the opportunity to change spontaneously their opinion to another one selected randomly inside the opinion space with different rules. If the random jump does not occur, individuals interact through the Hegselmann-Krause's rule. We analyze two cases, one where individuals can carry out opinion random jumps inside the…
We examine how the randomness of behavior and the flow of information between agents affect the formation of opinions. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution, opinion clusters formation and studying the probability of sustaining opinion. The results show that opinion formation (clustering of opinion) is influenced by both flow of information between agents (interactions outside the closest neighbors) and randomness in adopting opinions.
The massive amount of text data on the web has facilitated research on the quantitative analysis of public opinion, which could not be visualized earlier. In this paper, we propose a new opinion dynamics theory. This theory that is intended to explain agreement formation and opinion breakup division in opinion exchanges on social media such as Twitter. With the popularization of the public network, we have become able to communicate with instantaneity and interactivity beyond the temporal and spatial constraints.Research on quantitatively analyzing the distribution of opinion on public opinion…
Opinion formation has been gaining increasing research interests recently, and various models have been proposed. These models, however, have their limitations, among which noticeably include (i) it is generally assumed that adjacent nodes holding similar opinions will further reduce their difference in between, while adjacent nodes holding significantly different opinions would either do nothing, or cut the link in between them; (ii) opinion mutation, which describes "opinion changes not due to neighborhood influences" in real life, is typically random. While such models enjoy their simplicit…
We extend simple opinion models to obtain stable but continuously evolving communities. Our scope is to meet a challenge raised by sociologists of generating "structures that last from non lasting entities". We achieve this by introducing two kinds of noise on a standard opinion model. First, agents may interact with other agents even if their opinion difference is large. Second, agents randomly change their opinion at a constant rate. We show that for a large range of control parameters, our model yields stable and fluctuating polarized states, where the composition and mean opinion of the em…
We propose the PageRank model of opinion formation and investigate its rich properties on real directed networks of Universities of Cambridge and Oxford, LiveJournal and Twitter. In this model the opinion formation of linked electors is weighted with their PageRank probability. We find that the society elite, corresponding to the top PageRank nodes, can impose its opinion to a significant fraction of the society. However, for a homogeneous distribution of two opinions there exists a bistability range of opinions which depends on a conformist parameter characterizing the opinion formation. We f…
We introduce stochastic driving in the Sznajd model of opinion spreading. This stochastic effect is meant to mimic a social temperature, so that agents can take random decisions with a varying probability. We show that a stochastic driving has a tremendous impact on the system dynamics as a whole by inducing an order-disorder nonequilibrium phase transition. Interestingly, under certain conditions, this stochastic dynamics can spontaneously lead to agents in the system who are analogous to Galam's contarians.
With the advent of online networks, societies are substantially more connected with individual members able to easily modify and maintain their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation bias, the tendency to confirm one's beliefs, and we explore how this affects collective opinion formation. We introduce a model of binary opinion dynamics on a complex network with fast, stochastic rewiring and show that confirmation bias induces a segregation of individuals with different opinions. We use the dynamics of global opinion to generally categoriz…
For some models of relevance in the social sciences we review some examples in which system size plays an important role in the final outcome of the dynamics. We discuss the conditions under which changes of behavior can appear only when the number of agents in the model takes a finite value. Those changes of behavior can be related to the apparent phase transitions that appear in some physical models. We show examples in the Galam's model of opinion transmission and the Axelrod's model of culture formation stressing the role that the network of interactions has on the main results of both mod…
We study dynamics of opinion formation in a network of coupled agents. As the network evolves to a steady state, opinions of agents within the same community converge faster than those of other agents. This framework allows us to study how network topology and network flow, which mediates the transfer of opinions between agents, both affect the formation of communities. In traditional models of opinion dynamics, agents are coupled via conservative flows, which result in one-to-one opinion transfer. However, social interactions are often non-conservative, resulting in one-to-many transfer of op…
A model of opinion formation on a Small World type topology is studied to observe qualitatively its difference with one is own conviction versus the opinion of others. It is possible to observe that the relation between conviction to copy the agent with whom it interacts and this agent is an undecided agent who leaves decisions to chance becomes outstanding since the probability of undecided agents is greater than 0.1 and is maintained until 0.7 so that in the border regions, it is only a transition towards this predictive.
We study an opinion formation model by the means of a co-evolving complex network where the vertices represent the individuals, characterised by their evolving opinions, and the edges represent the interactions among them. The network adapts to the spreading of opinions in two ways: not only connected agents interact and eventually change their thinking but an agent may also rewire one of its links to a neighborhood holding the same opinion as his. The dynamics depends on an external parameter Φ, which controls the plasticity of the network. We show how the information entropy associated to th…
The relationship between the topology of a network and specific types of dynamics unfolding in networks constitutes a subject of substantial interest. One type of dynamics that has attracted increasing attention because of its several potential implications is opinion formation. A phenomenon of particular importance, known to take place in opinion formation, is echo chambers' appearance. In the present work, we approach this phenomenon, while emphasizing the influence of contrarian opinions in a multi-opinion scenario. To define the contrarian opinion, we considered the Underdog effect, which …
We propose a minimal model for the collective dynamics of opinion formation in the society, by modifying kinetic exchange dynamics studied in the context of income, money or wealth distributions in a society. This model has an intriguing spontaneous symmetry breaking transition.
We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ. 114, 37 (1999)] for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show tha…
We consider a PageRank model of opinion formation on Ulam networks, generated by the intermittency map and the typical Chirikov map. The Ulam networks generated by these maps have certain similarities with such scale-free networks as the World Wide Web (WWW), showing an algebraic decay of the PageRank probability. We find that the opinion formation process on Ulam networks have certain similarities but also distinct features comparing to the WWW. We attribute these distinctions to internal differences in network structure of the Ulam and WWW networks. We also analyze the process of opinion for…
We study a two states opinion formation model driven by PageRank node influence and report an extensive numerical study on how PageRank affects collective opinion formations in large-scale empirical directed networks. In our model the opinion of a node can be updated by the sum of its neighbor nodes' opinions weighted by the node influence of the neighbor nodes at each step. We consider PageRank probability and its sublinear power as node influence measures and investigate evolution of opinion under various conditions. First, we observe that all networks reach steady state opinion after a cert…
Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient $g$ in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e.\ independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However,…
We study the opinion dynamics in a generalized voter model in which voters are additionally influenced by two antagonistic news sources, whose effect is to promote political polarization. We show that, as the influence of the news sources is increased, the mean time to reach consensus is anomalously long, the time to reach a politically polarized state is quite short, and the steady-state opinion distribution exhibits a transition from a near consensus state to a politically polarized state.
In this paper, the results of computer simulations based on Nowak--Szamrej--Latané model with multiple (from two to five) opinions available in the system are presented. We introduce the noise discrimination level (which says how small the clusters of agents could be considered as negligible) as a quite useful quantity that allows qualitative characterization of the system. We show that depending on the introduced noise discrimination level, the range of actors' interactions (controlled indirectly by an exponent in distance scaling function, the larger the exponent the more influential the nea…
Within the framework of a simple model for social influence, the Taylor model, we analytically investigate the role of stubborn agents in the overall opinion dynamics of networked systems. Similar to zealots, stubborn agents are biased towards a certain opinion and have a major effect on the collective opinion formation process. Based on a modified version of the network Laplacian we derive quantities capturing the transient dynamics of the system and the emerging stationary opinion states. In the case of a single stubborn agent we characterize his/her ability to coherently change a prevailing…
We consider a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which takes into account the influence of conviction during the formation of opinion in a system of agents which interact through the binary exchanges introduced in [G. Toscani, Commun. Math. Sci. 4, 481 (2006)]. The original exchange mechanism, which is based on the human tendency to compromise and change of opinion through self-thinking, is here modified in the parameters of the compromise and diffusion terms, which now are assumed to depend on the personal degree of conviction. The numerical simulations show that the presence of con…
Opinions and beliefs determine the evolution of social systems. This is of particular interest in finance, as the increasing complexity of financial systems is coupled with information overload. Opinion formation, therefore, is not always the result of optimal information processing. On the contrary, agents are boundedly rational and naturally tend to observe and imitate others in order to gain further insights. Hence, a certain degree of interaction, which can be envisioned as a network, occurs within the system. Opinions, the interaction network and prices in financial markets are then heavi…
