We provide an agent-based model to explain the emergence of collective opinions not based on feedback between different opinions, but based on emotional interactions between agents. The driving variable is the emotional state of agents, characterized by their valence and their arousal. Both determine their emotional expression, from which collective emotional information is generated. This information feeds back on the dynamics of emotional states and of individual opinions in a non-linear manner. We derive the critical conditions for emotional interactions to obtain either consensus or polarization of opinions. Stochastic agent-based simulations and formal analyses of the model explain our results. Possible ways to validate the model are discussed.
Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 25, 2015. The model reproduces semi-quantitatively the poll results for the three parties which dominated the recent presidential elections and allows estimation of some variations of the electoral propaganda campaigns by the parties.
Warsaw University of Technology（华沙理工大学）；University of Wolverhampton（伍尔弗汉普顿大学）
We performed statistical analysis on data from the Digg.com website, which enables its users to express their opinion on news stories by taking part in forum-like discussions as well as directly evaluate previous posts and stories by assigning so called "diggs". Owing to fact that the content of each post has been annotated with its emotional value, apart from the strictly structural properties, the study also includes an analysis of the average emotional response of the posts commenting the main story. While analysing correlations at the story level, an interesting relationship between the nu…
We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size -- which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities. Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion. We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional ton…
It is known that individual opinions on different policy issues often align to a dominant ideological dimension (e.g. "left" vs. "right") and become increasingly polarized. We provide an agent-based model that reproduces these two stylized facts as emergent properties of an opinion dynamics in a multi-dimensional space of continuous opinions. The mechanisms for the change of agents' opinions in this multi-dimensional space are derived from cognitive dissonance theory and structural balance theory. We test assumptions from proximity voting and from directional voting regarding their ability to …
Multiple countries have recently experienced extreme political polarization, which in some cases led to escalation of hate crime, violence and political instability. Beside the much discussed presidential elections in the United States and France, Britain's Brexit vote and Turkish constitutional referendum, showed signs of extreme polarization. Among the countries affected, Ukraine faced some of the gravest consequences. In an attempt to understand the mechanisms of these phenomena, we here combine social media analysis with agent-based modeling of opinion dynamics, targeting Ukraine's crisis …
Understanding the social conditions that tend to increase or decrease polarization is important for many reasons. We study a network-structured agent-based model of opinion dynamics, extending a model previously introduced by Flache and Macy (2011), who found that polarization appeared to increased with the introduction of long-range ties but decrease with the number of salient opinions, which they called the population's "cultural complexity." We find the following. First, polarization is strongly path dependent and sensitive to stochastic variation. Second, polarization depends strongly on t…
The q-voter model, a variant of the classic voter model, has been analyzed by several authors: while allowing to study opinion dynamics, this model is also believed to be one of the most representative among the many defined in the wide field of sociophysics. Here, we investigate the consequences of conformity on the consensus reaching process, by numerically simulating a q-voter model with agents behaving either as conformists or non-conformists, embedded on heterogeneous network topologies (as small-world and scale-free). In fact, although it is already known that conformity enhances the rea…
In order to solve the problem of opinion polarization and distortion caused by echo chamber effect in the evolution process of online public opinion,a three-dimensional Deffuant-Weisbuch model is proposed to study the formation and elimination of echo chamber effect in this paper. Firstly, the original pairwise interaction model is generalized to three-point interaction model. Secondly, we consider individual psychological mechanism and introduce individual emotional factor into the trust threshold of original model. Finally, the natural evolution coefficient of opinion is introduced to modify…
Diffusion-driven pattern formation in an opinion dynamical network model
Helmholtz Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity (HIFMB)（赫尔姆霍兹功能海洋生物多样性研究所）；Carl-von-Ossietzky University, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment（卡尔·冯·奥西茨基大学，海洋环境化学与生物学研究所）；Alfred-Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research（阿尔弗雷德·魏格纳研究所（AWI），赫尔姆霍兹极地海洋研究中心）
Opinion formation is a process with strong implications for public policy. In controversial debates with large consequences, the public opinion is often trapped in a fifty-fifty stalemate, jeopardizing broadly accepted political decisions. Emergent effects from millions of private discussions make it hard to understand or influence this kind of opinion dynamics. Here we demonstrate that repulsion from opinions favors fifty-fifty stalemates. We study a voter model where agents can have two opinions or an undecided state in-between. In pairwise discussions, undecided agents can be convinced or r…
The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, …
A neural network with a learning algorithm optimized by information theory entropic dynamics is used to build an agent dubbed Homo Entropicus. The algorithm can be described at a macroscopic level in terms of aggregate variables interpretable as quantitative markers of proto-emotions. We use systems of such interacting neural networks to construct a framework for modeling societies that show complex emergent behavior. A few applications are presented to investigate the role the interactions of opinions about multidimensional issues and trust on the information source play on the state of the a…
