We propose non-asymptotic controls of the cumulative distribution function $P(|X_{t}|\ge \varepsilon)$, for any $t>0$, $\varepsilon>0$ and any Lévy process $X$ such that its Lévy density is bounded from above by the density of an $α$-stable type Lévy process in a neighborhood of the origin. The results presented are non-asymptotic and optimal, they apply to a large class of Lévy processes.
This paper considers the tail asymptotics for a cumulative process $\{B(t); t \ge 0\}$ sampled at a heavy-tailed random time $T$. The main contribution of this paper is to establish several sufficient conditions for the asymptotic equality ${\sf P}(B(T) > bx) \sim {\sf P}(M(T) > bx) \sim {\sf P}(T>x)$ as $x \to \infty$, where $M(t) = \sup_{0 \le u \le t}B(u)$ and $b$ is a certain positive constant. The main results of this paper can be used to obtain the subexponential asymptotics for various queueing models in Markovian environments. As an example, using the main results, we derive subexponen…
We give asymptotics for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for degrees of large dense random graphs sampled from a graphon. The proof is based on precise asymptotics for binomial random variables. Replacing the indicator function in the empirical CDF by a smoother function, we get general asymptotic results for functionals of homomorphism densities for partially labeled graphs with smoother functions. This general setting allows to recover recent results on asymptotics for homomorphism densities of sampled graphon.
We establish optimal logarithmic rates of convergence in the strong invariance principle for multivariate cumulative processes in the Smith's sense. Exponential probabilistic inequalities of Komlós-Major-Tusnády type are obtained. Provided examples include applications to stopped sums and birth and death processes.
We study the Tauberian relations between the moment generating function (MGF) and the complementary cumulative distribution function of a random variable whose MGF is finite only on part of the real line. We relate the right tail behavior of the cumulative distribution function of such a random variable to the behavior of its MGF near the critical moment. We apply our results to an arbitrary superposition of a CIR process and the time-integral of this process.
Parisian ruin probability in the classical Brownian risk model, unlike the standard ruin probability can not be explicitly calculated even in one-dimensional setup. Resorting on asymptotic theory, we derive in this contribution an asymptotic approximations of both Parisian and cumulative Parisian ruin probability and simultaneous ruin time for the two-dimensional Brownian risk model when the initial capital increases to infinity.
This paper is a continuation of work arXiv:2006.09583 devoted to establishment of the convergence rate in the strong invariance principle for cumulative processes. We establish optimal rate of convergence for the case when regeneration periods and increments over them have only power moments of order greater than 2. Under this power-type conditions two types of approximation by Wiener process are proved: the rate of convergence in the Strassen's invariance principle and inequalities for the probability that random process deviates from the approximating one.
Consider a multi-dimensional Brownian motion which models the surplus processes of multiple lines of business of an insurance company. Our main result gives exact asymptotics for the cumulative Parisian ruin probability as the initial capital tends to infinity. An asymptotic distribution for the conditional cumulative Parisian ruin time is also derived. The obtained results on the cumulative Parisian ruin can be seen as generalizations of some of the results derived in Debicki et al (2018, Stochastic Processes and Their Applications). As a particular interesting case, the two-dimensional Brown…
In Mombeni et al. (2019), Birnbaum-Saunders and Weibull kernel estimators were introduced for the estimation of cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.s) supported on the half-line $[0,\infty)$. They were the first authors to use asymmetric kernels in the context of c.d.f. estimation. Their estimators were shown to perform better numerically than traditional methods such as the basic kernel method and the boundary modified version from Tenreiro (2013). In the present paper, we complement their study by introducing five new asymmetric kernel c.d.f. estimators, namely the Gamma, inverse Gamma,…
The cumulative sum (CUSUM) process is often used in change point analysis to detect changes in the mean of sequentially observed data. We provide a full description of the asymptotic distribution of $L^p, 1\leq p <\infty$, functionals of the weighted CUSUM process for time series under general conditions.
In piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) the state of a finite-dimensional system evolves continuously, but the evolutive equation may change randomly as a result of discrete switches. A running cost is integrated along the corresponding piecewise-deterministic trajectory up to the termination to produce the cumulative cost of the process. We address three natural questions related to uncertainty in cumulative cost of PDMP models: (1) how to compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the cumulative cost when the switching rates are fully known; (2) how to accurately bound…
Stochastic modelling of fatigue (and other material's deterioration), as well as of cumulative damage in risk theory, are often based on compound sums of independent random variables, where the number of addends is represented by an independent counting process. We consider here a cumulative model where, instead of a renewal process (as in the Poisson case), a linear birth (or Yule) process is used. This corresponds to the assumption that the frequency of \textquotedblleft damage" increments accelerates according to the increasing number of \textquotedblleft damages". We start from the partial…
The paper is devoted to three-parametric self-similar Gaussian Volterra processes that generalize fractional Brownian motion. We study the asymptotic growth of such processes and the properties of long- and short-range dependence. Then we consider the problem of the drift parameter estimation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by Gaussian Volterra process under consideration. We construct a strongly consistent estimator and investigate its asymptotic properties. Namely, we prove that it has the Cauchy asymptotic distribution.
Several methods are available in the literature to stochastically compare random variables and random vectors. We introduce the notion of asymptotic stochastic order for random processes and define four such orders. Various properties and interrelations of the orders are discussed. Sufficient conditions for these orders to hold for certain stochastic processes, evolving from some statistical entities of interest, are derived.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators of the unknown parameters of bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under very weak assumptions on the driven noise of the process, namely conditional pair-wise independence and suitable moment conditions, we establish the almost sure convergence of our estimators together with the quadratic strong law and the central limit theorem. All our analysis relies on non-standard asymptotic results for martingales.
Lower and upper bounds for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the time to extinction in a subcritical two-sex branching process are derived. A recursive procedure for approximating this cdf is also utilized. The results are illustrated with some simulations.
In this paper we study the mean of the first exit time from a bounded interval of various Lévy processes. We establish sharp two-sided estimates of the mean for Lévy processes under certain condition on their characteristic exponents. We also study the cumulative distribution function of the supremum and infimum processes. Finally, we establish integral conditions that assure that the renewal function of the ladder height process is comparable with the linear one.
Asymptotic laws of records values have usually been investigated as limits in type. In this paper, we use functional representations of the tail of cumulative distribution functions in the extreme value domain of attraction to directly establish asymptotic laws of records value, not necessarily as limits in type. Results beyond the extreme value value domain are provided. Explicit asymptotic laws concerning very usual laws are listed as well. Some of these laws are expected to be used in fitting distribution
We consider a financial contract that delivers a single cash flow given by the terminal value of a cumulative gains process. The problem of modelling and pricing such an asset and associated derivatives is important, for example, in the determination of optimal insurance claims reserve policies, and in the pricing of reinsurance contracts. In the insurance setting, the aggregate claims play the role of the cumulative gains, and the terminal cash flow represents the totality of the claims payable for the given accounting period. A similar example arises when we consider the accumulation of loss…
In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large deviation results, as time growths to infinity. The proofs lie on a renewal structure for these processes introduced in Costa et al. (2020) which leads to a comparison with cumulative processes. Explicit computations are made on some examples. Similar results have been obtained in the literature for self-exciting Hawkes processes only.
We propose and analyze a specific asymptotic stochastic order for random processes based on the measure of departure discussed in the literature. As applications, we stochastically compare mixtures of order statistics and record values coming from two different homogeneous samples, as the sample size becomes large.
We study a general perturbed risk process with cumulative claims modelled by a subordinator with finite expectation, with the perturbation being a spectrally negative Levy process with zero expectation. We derive a Pollaczek-Hinchin type formula for the survival probability of that risk process, and give an interpretation of the formula based on the decomposition of the dual risk process at modified ladder epochs.
New algorithms for computing of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes are presented. The algorithms are based on special techniques of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with asymptotically coupled and uncoupled finite phase spaces.
A variational formula for the asymptotic variance of general Markov processes is obtained. As application, we get a upper bound of the mean exit time of reversible Markov processes, and some comparison theorems between the reversible and non-reversible diffusion processes.
We derive the asymptotic behavior for an additive functional of two independent self-similar Gaussian processes when their intersection local time exists, using the method of moments.
We identify general conditions under which regenerative processes with dependent cycles and cycle lengths are asymptotically independent. The result is applied to various models. In particular, independent Lévy processes with dependent secondary jumps at the origin (e.g., workloads of parallel M/G/1 queues with server vacations), the asymptotic performance of real-time status systems with multiple correlated sources measured by the stationary probability of an updated system and asymptotic results for clearing processes with dependent arrivals of inputs and clearings.
This paper contributes to the current studies on regularity properties of noncommutative distributions in free probability theory. More precisely, we consider evaluations of selfadjoint noncommutative polynomials in noncommutative random variables that have finite non-microstates free Fisher information, highlighting the special case of Lipschitz conjugate variables. For the first time in this generality, it is shown that the analytic distributions of those evaluations have Hölder continuous cumulative distribution functions with an explicit Hölder exponent that depends only on the degree of t…
We observe the Galton-Watson Branching Processes. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated.
Using complex analysis techniques we obtain precise asymptotic approximations for the kernels corresponding to the symmetric $α$-stable processes and their fractional derivatives. We apply our method to general Lévy processes whose characteristic functions are radial and satisfy some regularity and size conditions.
We obtain the Lifschitz tail asymptotics for the integrated density of states of the subordinate $α-$stable processes on the Sierpiński gasket $\mathcal G,$ evolving among killing Poissonian obstacles. Simultaneously, we derive the large-time asymptotics for the volume of the $α-$stable sausage on the gasket.
New algorithms for construction of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces are presented. These algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with an arbitrary asymptotic communicative structure of phase spaces. Asymptotic expansions are given in two forms, without and with explicit bounds for remainders.
Asymptotic expansions with explicit upper bounds for remainders are given for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces. The corresponding algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with an arbitrary asymptotic communicative structure of phase spaces.
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this paper, we study fluctuations, large deviations and moderate deviations nonlinear Hawkes processes in a new asymptotic regime, the large intensity function and the small exciting function regime. It corresponds to the large baseline intensity asymptotics for the linear case, and can also be interpreted as the asymptotics for the mean process of Hawkes processes o…
Making use of a Rice-like series expansion, for a class of stationary Gaussian processes the asymptotic behavior of the first passage time probability density function through certain time-varying boundaries, including periodic boundaries, is determined. Sufficient conditions are then given such that the density asymptotically exhibits an exponential behavior when the boundary is either asymptotically constant or asymptotically periodic.
In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a continuous state branching process whose branching mechanism satisfies a given condition and its reflected process at its infimum.
In this paper we provide explicit representations of Laplace transforms of extinction time and total progeny of rough continuous-state branching processes introduced in [7]. Also, we show that their tail distributions are much fatter than those of Feller branching diffusions.
In this paper, we formulate and prove new properties of conditional quantiles given one of the particular sigma-fields. Next, we use them to investigate almost sure asymptotic behavior of central order statistics which arise from strictly stationary processes. Specifically we provide a new version of a strong ergodic theorem for central order statistics.
Poisson shot noise processes are natural generalizations of compound Poisson processes that have been widely applied in insurance, neuroscience, seismology, computer science and epidemiology. In this paper we study sharp deviations, fluctuations and the stable probability approximation of Poisson shot noise processes. Our achievements extend, improve and complement existing results in the literature. We apply the theoretical results to Poisson cluster point processes, including generalized linear Hawkes processes, and risk processes with delayed claims. Many examples are discussed in detail.
We find the logarithmic small ball asymptotics for the $L_2$-norm with respect to a degenerate self-similar measures of a certain class of Gaussian processes including Brownian motion, Ornstein - Uhlenbeck process and their integrated counterparts.
