This paper is a continuation of work arXiv:2006.09583 devoted to establishment of the convergence rate in the strong invariance principle for cumulative processes. We establish optimal rate of convergence for the case when regeneration periods and increments over them have only power moments of order greater than 2. Under this power-type conditions two types of approximation by Wiener process are proved: the rate of convergence in the Strassen's invariance principle and inequalities for the probability that random process deviates from the approximating one.
This paper considers the tail asymptotics for a cumulative process $\{B(t); t \ge 0\}$ sampled at a heavy-tailed random time $T$. The main contribution of this paper is to establish several sufficient conditions for the asymptotic equality ${\sf P}(B(T) > bx) \sim {\sf P}(M(T) > bx) \sim {\sf P}(T>x)$ as $x \to \infty$, where $M(t) = \sup_{0 \le u \le t}B(u)$ and $b$ is a certain positive constant. The main results of this paper can be used to obtain the subexponential asymptotics for various queueing models in Markovian environments. As an example, using the main results, we derive subexponen…
We address the important question of the extent to which random variables and vectors with truncated power tails retain the characteristic features of random variables and vectors with power tails. We define two truncation regimes, soft truncation regime and hard truncation regime, and show that, in the soft truncation regime, truncated power tails behave, in important respects, as if no truncation took place. On the other hand, in the hard truncation regime much of "heavy tailedness" is lost. We show how to estimate consistently the tail exponent when the tails are truncated, and suggest stat…
We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for tail probabilities for the area.
We construct an example of a continuous centered random process with light tails of finite-dimensional distribution but with (relatively) heavy tail of maximum distribution. The apparatus for tails comparison are embedding results for Orlicz and Grand Lebesgue Spaces (GLS).
The purpose of this paper is to show that the use of heavy-tailed distributions in Financial problems is theoretically baseless and can lead to significant misunderstandings. The reason for this the authors see in an incorrect interpretation of the concept of the distributional tail. In accordance with this, in applications it is necessary to use instead of the distributional tail the "smearing" of its central part. keywords: heavy tailed distributions, exponential tails, pre-limit theorems, Financial indexes
We extend the construction principle of phase-type (PH) distributions to allow for inhomogeneous transition rates and show that this naturally leads to direct probabilistic descriptions of certain transformations of PH distributions. In particular, the resulting matrix distributions enable to carry over fitting properties of PH distributions to distributions with heavy tails, providing a general modelling framework for heavy-tail phenomena. We also illustrate the versatility and parsimony of the proposed approach for the modelling of a real-world heavy-tailed fire insurance dataset.
This work is denoted to studying the tail behavior of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes with regime-switching. One essential difference shown in this work between CIR process with regime-switching and without regime-switching is that the stationary distribution for CIR process with regime-switching could be heavy-tailed. Our results provide a theoretical evidence of the existence of regime-switching for interest rates model based on its heavy-tailed empirical evidence. In this work, we first provide sharp criteria to justify the existence of stationary distribution for the CIR process with re…
We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some applications in the method Monte-Carlo and statistics, and obtain the sufficient conditions for Central and stable limit theorem in the Banach space of continuous function. There are considered a slight generalization on a random variables with super-heavy tails and martingale difference scheme.
Recently, Kigami's resistance form framework has been applied to provide a general approach for deriving the scaling limits of random walks on graphs with a fractal scaling limit. As an illustrative example, this article describes an application to the random conductance model with heavy tails on nested fractal graphs.
As well known, for a supercritical Galton-Watson process $Z_n$ whose offspring distribution has mean $m>1$, the ratio $W_n:=Z_n/m^n$ has a.s. limit, say $W$. We study tail behaviour of the distributions of $W_n$ and $W$ in the case where $Z_1$ has heavy-tailed distribution, that is, $\E e^{λZ_1}=\infty$ for every $λ>0$. We show how different types of distributions of $Z_1$ lead to different asymptotic behaviour of the tail of $W_n$ and $W$. We describe the most likely way how large values of the process occur.
Two of the most popular approximations for the distribution of the steady-state waiting time, $W_{\infty}$, of the M/G/1 queue are the so-called heavy-traffic approximation and heavy-tailed asymptotic, respectively. If the traffic intensity, $ρ$, is close to 1 and the processing times have finite variance, the heavy-traffic approximation states that the distribution of $W_{\infty}$ is roughly exponential at scale $O((1-ρ)^{-1})$, while the heavy tailed asymptotic describes power law decay in the tail of the distribution of $W_{\infty}$ for a fixed traffic intensity. In this paper, we assume a …
In this paper we derive exact large-buffer asymptotics for a two-class Generalized Processor Sharing (GPS) model, under the assumption that the input traffic streams generated by both classes correspond to heavy-tailed Lévy processes. Four scenarios need to be distinguished, which differ in terms of (i)~the level of heavy-tailedness of the driving Lévy processes as well as (ii)~the values of the corresponding mean rates relative to the GPS weights. The derived results are illustrated by two important special cases, in which the queues' inputs are modeled by heavy-tailed compound Poisson proces…
We investigate maxima of linear processes with i.i.d. heavy-tailed innovations and random coefficients. Using the point process approach we derive functional convergence of the partial maxima stochastic process in the space of non-decreasing càdlàg functions on $[0,1]$ with the Skorohod $M_{1}$ topology.
The infinite source Poisson arrival model with heavy-tailed workload distributions has attracted much attention, especially in the modeling of data packet traffic in communication networks. In particular, it is well known that under suitable assumptions on the source arrival rate, the centered and scaled cumulative workload process for the underlying processing system can be approximated by fractional Brownian motion. In many applications one is interested in the stabilization of the work inflow to the system by modifying the net input rate, using an appropriate admission control policy. In th…
We prove a functional central limit theorem for partial sums of symmetric stationary long range dependent heavy tailed infinitely divisible processes with a certain type of negative dependence. Previously only positive dependence could be treated. The negative dependence involves cancellations of the Gaussian second order. This leads to new types of limiting processes involving stable random measures, due to heavy tails, Mittag-Leffler processes, due to long memory, and Brownian motions, due to the Gaussian second order cancellations.
We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A non-parametric risk measure applicable for all heavy-tailed random variables is obtained as a concave function that represents the decay speed of tail function. Many key properties of the distribution of a random variable are encoded into this function, which enables a new way to estimate tails. The latter half of the paper is devoted to numerous examples illustra…
Constructions of numerous approximate sampling algorithms are based on the well-known fact that certain Gibbs measures are stationary distributions of ergodic stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by the Brownian motion. However, for some heavy-tailed distributions it can be shown that the associated SDE is not exponentially ergodic and that related sampling algorithms may perform poorly. A natural idea that has recently been explored in the machine learning literature in this context is to make use of stochastic processes with heavy tails instead of the Brownian motion. In this pape…
This paper studies the tail probability of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^n c_i X_i$, where random variables $X_i$'s are either independent or pairwise quasi-asymptotical independent with heavy tails. Using $h$-insensitive function, the uniform asymptotic equivalence of the tail probabilities of $\sum_{i=1}^n c_iX_i$, $\max_{1\le k\le n}\sum_{i=1}^k c_iX_i$ and $\sum_{i=1}^n c_iX_i^+$ is established, where $X_i$'s are independent and follow the long-tailed distribution, and $c_i$'s take value in a broad interval. Some further uniform asymptotic results for the weighted sums of $X_i$'s w…
Let $\{X_1, X_2, ... \}$ be a sequence of dependent heavy-tailed random variables with distributions $F_1, F_2,...$ on $(-\infty,\infty)$, and let $τ$ be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable independent of the sequence $\{X_k, k \ge 1\}$. In this framework, we study the asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities of the quantities $X_{(n)} = \max_{1\le k \le n} X_k$, $S_n =\sum_{k=1}^n X_k$ and $S_{(n)}=\max_{1\le k\le n} S_k$ for $n>1$, and for those of their randomized versions $X_{(τ)}$, $S_τ$ and $S_{(τ)}$. We also consider applications of the results obtained to some commonly-us…
Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms, designed for efficient tail probability estimation, can significantly improve Monte Carlo estimators of tail-based risk measures. In the heavy-tailed setting, when the random variable of interest has a regularly varying distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic relative error of importance sampling estimators of risk measures, such as Valu…
We study the statistics of the largest eigenvalues of real symmetric and sample covariance matrices when the entries are heavy tailed. Extending the result obtained by Soshnikov in \cite{Sos1}, we prove that, in the absence of the fourth moment, the top eigenvalues behave, in the limit, as the largest entries of the matrix.
We study functional convergence of sums of moving averages with random coefficients and heavy-tailed innovations. Under some standard moment conditions and the assumption that all partial sums of the series of coefficients are a.s. bounded between zero and the sum of the series we obtain functional convergence of the corresponding partial sum stochastic process in the space $D[0,1]$ of càdlàg functions with the Skorohod $M_{2}$ topology.
We analyze the largest eigenvalue statistics of m-dependent heavy-tailed Wigner matrices as well as the associated sample covariance matrices having entry-wise regularly varying tail distributions with parameter $0<α<4$. Our analysis extends results in the previous literature for the corresponding random matrices with independent entries above the diagonal, by allowing for m-dependence between the entries of a given matrix. We prove that the limiting point process of extreme eigenvalues is a Poisson cluster process.
If a random variable is not exponentially integrable, it is known that no concentration inequality holds for an infinite sequence of independent copies. Under mild conditions, we establish concentration inequalities for finite sequences of $n$ independent copies, with good dependence in $n$.
In this paper we first provide several conditional limit theorems for Lévy processes with negative drift and regularly varying tail. Then we apply them to study the asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of heavy-tailed Lévy processes. As the key point, we observe that the asymptotics mainly depends on the sample paths with early arrival large jump. Both the polynomial decay rate and the exact expression of the limit coefficients are given. As an application, we give an exact description for the extinction speed of continuous-state branching processes in heavy-tail…
We develop accurate approximations of the delay distribution of the MArP/G/1 queue that cap- ture the exact tail behavior and provide bounded relative errors. Motivated by statistical analysis, we consider the service times as a mixture of a phase-type and a heavy-tailed distribution. With the aid of perturbation analysis, we derive corrected phase-type approximations as a sum of the delay in an MArP/PH/1 queue and a heavy-tailed component depending on the perturbation parameter. We exhibit their performance with numerical examples.
For a class of stationary regularly varying and weakly dependent time series, we prove the so-called complete convergence result for the corresponding space-time point processes. As an application of our main theorem, we give a simple proof of the invariance principle for the corresponding partial maximum process.
This study aims to develop the limit theorems on the sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations for certain stationary infinitely divisible processes. We consider the case where the infinitely divisible process has heavy tail marginals and is generated by a conservative flow. Interestingly, the growth rate of the sample autocovariances is determined by not only heavy tailedness of the marginals but also memory length of the process. Although this feature was first observed by \cite{resnick:samorodnitsky:xue:2000} for some very specific processes, we will propose a more general framewor…
We consider a two-node fluid network with batch arrivals of random size having a heavy-tailed distribution. We are interested in the tail asymptotics for the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional queue-length process. The tail asymptotics have been well studied for two-dimensional reflecting processes where jumps have either a bounded or an unbounded light-tailed distribution. However, presence of heavy tails totally changes the asymptotics. Here we focus on the case of strong stability where both nodes release fluid with sufficiently high speeds to minimise their mutual influence. We s…
A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a renewal Markov process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy tailed distributions. In particular, the rate functional is in general degenerate (it has a nontrivial set of zeros) and not strictly convex. These features show a behavior highly different from what one may guess with a heuristic Donsker-Varadhan analysis of the problem.
The reduced Markov branching process is a stochastic model for the genealogy of an unstructured biological population. Its limit behavior in the critical case is well studied for the Zolotarev-Slack regularity parameter $α\in(0,1]$. We turn to the case of very heavy tailed reproduction distribution $α=0$ assuming Zubkov's regularity condition with parameter $β\in(0,\infty)$. Our main result gives a new asymptotic pattern for the reduced branching process conditioned on non-extinction during a long time interval.
In this paper, the asymptotic behaviour of the distribution tail of the stationary waiting time $W$ in the $GI/GI/2$ FCFS queue is studied. Under subexponential-type assumptions on the service time distribution, bounds and sharp asymptotics are given for the probability ${\bf P}\{W>x\}$. We also get asymptotics for the distribution tail of a stationary two-dimensional workload vector and of a stationary queue length. These asymptotics depend heavily on the traffic load.
Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the main problems is to decide if there is any type of dependence between the components of the vector and, if so, what type of dependence structure should be used for accurate modelling. We study a class of heavy-tailed multivariate random vectors under a non-parametric shape constraint on the tail decay rate. This class contains, for instance, elliptical distribu…
Importance sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed random walks are considered. Using a specification with algorithms based on mixtures of the original distribution with some other distribution, sufficient conditions for obtaining bounded relative error are presented. It is proved that mixture algorithms of this kind can achieve asymptotically optimal relative error. Some examples of mixture algorithms are presented, including mixture algorithms using a scaling of the original distribution, and the bounds of the relative errors are calculated. The algorithms are evaluated numerically in a simple …
In this paper we consider a stochastic model of perpetuity-type. In contrast to the classical affine perpetuity model of Kesten [12] and Goldie [8] all discount factors in the model are mutually independent. We prove that the tails of the distribution of this model are regularly varying both in the univariate and multivariate cases. Due to the additional randomness in the model the tails are not pure power laws as in the Kesten-Goldie setting but involve a logarithmic term.
In this paper we study first exit times from a bounded domain of a gradient dynamical system $\dot Y_t=-\nabla U(Y_t)$ perturbed by a small multiplicative Lévy noise with heavy tails. A special attention is paid to the way the multiplicative noise is introduced. In particular we determine the asymptotics of the first exit time of solutions of Itô, Stratonovich and Marcus canonical SDEs.
In this paper, we will give a sufficient condition for a non-negative random variable $X$ to be heavy tailed by investigating the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the probability distribution function. We focus on the relation between the singularity at the real point of the axis of convergence and the asymptotic decay of the tail probability. Our theorem is a kind of Tauberian theorems.
Distributions with a heavy tail are difficult to estimate. If the design of a scheduling policy is sensitive to the details of heavy tail distributions of the service times, an approximately optimal solution is difficult to obtain. This paper shows that the optimal scheduling of an M/G/1 queue with heavy tailed service times does not present this difficulty and that an approximately optimal strategy can be derived by truncating the distributions.
The choice of the increment distribution is crucial for the random-walk Metropolis-Hastings (RWM) algorithm. In this paper we study the optimal choice in high-dimension setting among all possible increment distributions. The conclusion is rather counter intuitive, but the optimal rate of convergence is attained by the usual choice, the normal distribution as the increment distribution. In particular, no heavy-tailed increment distribution can improve the rate.
We establish some asymptotic expansions for infinite weighted convolution of distributions having regular varying tails. Various applications to statistics and probability are developed.
We are trying to give a mathematically correct definition of outliers. Our approach is based on the distance between two last order statistics and appears to be connected to the law of large numbers. Key words: outliers, law of large numbers, heavy tails, stability index.
Branching random walks on multidimensional lattice with heavy tails and a constant branching rate are considered. It is shown that under these conditions (heavy tails and constant rate), the front propagates exponentially fast, but the particles inside of the front are distributed very non-uniformly. The particles exhibit intermittent behavior in a large part of the region behind the front (i.e., the particles are concentrated only in very sparse spots there). The zone of non-intermittency (were particles are distributed relatively uniformly) extends with a power rate. This rate is found.
We consider the problem of estimation of the drift parameter of an ergodic Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type process driven by a Lévy process with heavy tails. The process is observed continuously on a long time interval $[0,T]$, $T\to\infty$. We prove that the statistical model is locally asymptotic mixed normal and the maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically efficient.
Survivorship analysis allows to statistically analyze situations that can be modeled as waiting times to an event. These waiting times are characterized by the cumulative hazard rate, which can be estimated by the Nelson-Aalen estimator or diverse confidence estimators based on asymptotic statistics. To better understand the small sample properties of these estimators, the speed of convergence of the estimate to the exact value is examined. This is done by deriving large deviation principles and their rate functions for the estimators and examining their properties. It is shown that these rate…
We study large Wigner random matrices in the case when the marginal distributions of matrix entries have heavy tails. We prove that the largest eigenvalues of such matrices have Poisson statistics.
We study heavy-tailed Hermitian random matrices that are unitarily invariant. The invariance implies that the eigenvalue and eigenvector statistics are decoupled. The motivating question has been whether a freely stable random matrix has stable eigenvalue statistics for the largest eigenvalues in the tail. We investigate this question through the use of both numerical and analytical means, the latter of which makes use of the supersymmetry method. A surprising behaviour is uncovered in that a freely stable random matrix does not necessarily yield stable statistics and if it does then it might …
