Importance sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed random walks are considered. Using a specification with algorithms based on mixtures of the original distribution with some other distribution, sufficient conditions for obtaining bounded relative error are presented. It is proved that mixture algorithms of this kind can achieve asymptotically optimal relative error. Some examples of mixture algorithms are presented, including mixture algorithms using a scaling of the original distribution, and the bounds of the relative errors are calculated. The algorithms are evaluated numerically in a simple setting.
We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for tail probabilities for the area.
We discuss the quenched tail estimates for the random walk in random scenery. The random walk is the symmetric nearest neighbor walk and the random scenery is assumed to be independent and identically distributed, non-negative, and has a power law tail. We identify the long time aymptotics of the upper deviation probability of the random walk in quenched random scenery, depending on the tail of scenery distribution and the amount of the deviation. The result is in turn applied to the tail estimates for a random walk in random conductance which has a layered structure.
We derive a Khinchine-Pollaczek formula for random walks whose steps have a geometric left tail. The construction rests on the memory-less property of the geometric distribution. An example from a tandem queue modeling dynamic instability in microtubules is given.
Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F. An application to ruin probabilities is developed.
It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such random walks in the large deviation scale which we call hidden large deviation. We apply this idea in the context of queueing processes with heavy-tailed service times and study approximations of severe congestion times for (buffered) queues. We conclude with simulated examples to verify our results.
We consider random walks with finite second moment which drifts to $-\infty$ and have heavy tail. We focus on the events when the minimum and the final value of this walk belong to some compact set. We first specify the associated probability. Then, conditionally on such an event, we finely describe the trajectory of the random walk. It yields a decomposition theorem with respect to a random time giving a big jump whose distribution can be described explicitly.
We study the asymptotics for the maximum on a random time interval of a random walk with a long-tailed distribution of its increments and negative drift. We extend to a general stopping time a result by Asmussen (1998), simplify its proof, and give some converses.
We present explicit estimates of right and left tails and exact (up to universal, multiplicative constants) estimates of tails and moments of hitting times of Bessel processes. The latter estimates are obtained from more general estimates of moments and tails established for convolutions of elementary mixtures of exponential distributions.
In this paper, we consider the state-dependent reflecting random walk on a half-strip. We provide explicit criteria for (positive) recurrence, and an explicit expression for the stationary distribution. As a consequence, the light-tailed behavior of the stationary distribution is proved under appropriate conditions. The key idea of the method employed here is the decomposition of the trajectory of the random walk and the main tool is the intrinsic branching structure buried in the random walk on a strip, which is different from the matrix-analytic method.
We consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ with a killing barrier at zero. At criticality, the process becomes eventually extinct, and the total progeny $Z$ is therefore finite. We show that the tail distribution of $Z$ displays a typical behaviour in $(n\ln^2(n))^{-1}$, which confirms the prediction of Addario-Berry and Broutin.
In this paper, we consider the $(1,R)$ state-dependent reflecting random walk (RW) on the half line, allowing the size of jumps to the right at maximal $R$ and to the left only 1. We provide an explicit criterion for positive recurrence and the explicit expression of the stationary distribution based on the intrinsic branching structure within the walk. As an application, we obtain the tail asymptotic of the stationary distribution in the "near critical" situation.
Consider a critical branching random walk on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d\geq 1$, started with a single particle at the origin, and let $L(x)$ be the total number of particles that ever visit a vertex $x$. We study the tail of $L(x)$ under suitable conditions on the offspring distribution. In particular, our results hold if the offspring distribution has an exponential moment.
This note continues paper of Denisov and Wachtel (2010), where we have constructed a $k$-dimensional random walk conditioned to stay in the Weyl chamber of type $A$. The construction was done under the assumption that the original random walk has $k-1$ moments. In this note we continue the study of killed random walks in the Weyl chamber, and assume that the tail of increments is regularly varying of index $α<k-1$. It appears that the asymptotic behaviour of random walks is different in this case. We determine the asymptotic behaviour of the exit time, and, using thisinformation, construct a c…
Sub-Gaussian estimates for the natural random walk is typical of many regular fractal graphs. Subordination shows that there exist heavy tailed jump processes whose jump indices are greater than or equal to two. However, the existing machinery used to prove heat kernel bounds for such heavy tailed random walks fail in this case. In this work we extend Davies' perturbation method to obtain transition probability bounds for these anomalous heavy tailed random walks. We prove global upper and lower bounds on the transition probability density that are sharp up to constants. An important feature o…
We consider a two dimensional reflecting random walk on the nonnegative integer quadrant. This random walk is assumed to be skip free in the direction to the boundary of the quadrant, but may have unbounded jumps in the opposite direction, which are referred to as upward jumps. We are interested in the tail asymptotic behavior of its stationary distribution, provided it exists. Assuming the upward jump size distributions have light tails, we completely find the rough tail asymptotics of the marginal stationary distributions in all directions. This generalizes the corresponding results for the …
In a seminal paper Biggins and Kyprianou \cite{BKy04} proved the existence of a non degenerate limit for the {\it Derivative martingale} of the branching random walk. As shown in \cite{Aid11} and \cite{Mad11}, this is an object of central importance in the study of the extremes of the branching random walk. In this paper we investigate the tail distribution of the limit of the {\it Derivative Martingale} by mean of the study of the global minimum of the branching random walk. This new approach leads us to extend the results of \cite{Gui90} and \cite{Bur09} under slighter assumptions.
A {\it scenery} is a coloring $ξ$ of the integers. Let $\{S_t\}_{t\geq 0}$ be a recurrent random walk on the integers. Observing the scenery $ξ$ along the path of this random walk, one sees the color $χ_t:=ξ(S_t)$ at time $t$. The {\it scenery reconstruction problem} is concerned with recovering the scenery $ξ$, given only the sequence of observations $χ:=(χ_t)_{t\geq 0}$. The scenery reconstruction methods presented to date require the random walk to have bounded increments. Here, we present a new approach for random walks with unbounded increments which works when the tail of the increment d…
This note is devoted to the study of the maximum of the excursion of a random walk with negative drift and light-tailed increments. More precisely, we determine the local asymptotics of the joint distribution of the length, maximum and the time at which this maximum is achieved. This result allows one to obtain a local central limit theorems for the length of the excursion conditioned on large values of the maximum.
Consider a random walk $S=(S_n:n\geq 0)$ that is ``perturbed'' by a stationary sequence $(ξ_n:n\geq 0)$ to produce the process $(S_n+ξ_n:n\geq0)$. This paper is concerned with computing the distribution of the all-time maximum $M_{\infty}=\max \{S_k+ξ_k:k\geq0\}$ of perturbed random walk with a negative drift. Such a maximum arises in several different applications settings, including production systems, communications networks and insurance risk. Our main results describe asymptotics for $\mathbb{P}(M_{\infty}>x)$ as $x\to\infty$. The tail asymptotics depend greatly on whether the $ξ_n$'s are…
In this paper, we consider the linearly reinforced and the once-reinforced random walk models in the transient phase on trees. We show the large deviations for the upper tails for both models. We also show the exponential decay for the lower tail in the once-reinforced random walk model. On the other hand, the lower tail is in polynomial decay for the linearly reinforced random walk model.
We consider asymptotics for the maximum of a modulated random walk whose increments $ξ_n^{X_n}$ are heavy-tailed. Of particular interest is the case where the modulating process $X$ is regenerative. Here we study also the maximum of the recursion given by $W_0=0$ and, for $n\ge1$, $W_n=\max(0,W_{n-1}+ξ_n^{X_n})$
Foss and Zachary (2003) and Foss, Palmowski and Zachary (2005) studied the probability of achieving a receding boundary on a time interval of random length by a random walk with a heavy-tailed jump distribution. They have proposed and developed a new approach that allows to generalise results of Asmussen (1998) onto the case of arbitrary stopping times and a wide class of nonlinear boundaries, and to obtain uniform results over all stopping times. In this paper, we consider a class of branching random walks with fading branching and obtain results on the tail asymptotics for the maximum of a b…
In a series of papers, G. Harmer and D. Abbott study the behavior of random walks associated with games introduced in 1997 by J. M. R. Parrondo. These games illustrate an apparent paradox that random and deterministic mixtures of losing games may produce winning games. In this paper, classical cyclic random walks on the additive group of integers modulo $m$, a given integer, are used in a straightforward way to derive the strong law limits of a general class of games that contains the Parrondo games. We then consider the question of when random mixtures of fair games related to these walks may…
For a continuous-time catalytic branching random walk (CBRW) on Z, with an arbitrary finite number of catalysts, we study the asymptotic behavior of position of the rightmost particle when time tends to infinity. The mild requirements include the regular variation of the jump distribution tail for underlying random walk and the well-known L log L condition for the offspring numbers. In our classification, given in the previous paper, the analysis refers to supercritical CBRW. The principle result demonstrates that, after a proper normalization, the maximum of CBRW converges in distribution to …
In the proof of the invariance principle for locally perturbed periodic Lorentz process with finite horizon, a lot of delicate results were needed concerning the recurrence properties of its unperturbed version. These were analogous to the similar properties of Simple Symmetric Random Walk. However, in the case of Lorentz process with infinite horizon, the analogous results for the corresponding random walk are not known, either. In this paper, these properties are ascertained for the appropriate random walk (this happens to be in the non normal domain of attraction of the normal law). As a to…
We study the one-dimensional branching random walk in the case when the step size distribution has a stretched exponential tail, and, in particular, no finite exponential moments. The tail of the step size $X$ decays as $\mathbb{P}[X \geq t] \sim a \exp(-λt^r)$ for some constants $a, λ> 0$ where $r \in (0,1)$. We give a detailed description of the asymptotic behaviour of the position of the rightmost particle, proving almost-sure limit theorems, convergence in law and some integral tests. The limit theorems reveal interesting differences betweens the two regimes $ r \in (0, 2/3)$ and $ r \in (…
We study the distribution of the maximum $M$ of a random walk whose increments have a distribution with negative mean and belonging, for some $γ>0$, to a subclass of the class $\mathcal{S}_γ$--see, for example, Chover, Ney, and Wainger (1973). For this subclass we give a probabilistic derivation of the asymptotic tail distribution of $M$, and show that extreme values of $M$ are in general attained through some single large increment in the random walk near the beginning of its trajectory. We also give some results concerning the ``spatially local'' asymptotics of the distribution of $M$, the m…
We consider phase-type scale mixture distributions which correspond to distributions of a product of two independent random variables: a phase-type random variable $Y$ and a nonnegative but otherwise arbitrary random variable $S$ called the scaling random variable. We investigate conditions for such a class of distributions to be either light- or heavy-tailed, we explore subexponentiality and determine their maximum domains of attraction. Particular focus is given to phase-type scale mixture distributions where the scaling random variable $S$ has discrete support --- such a class of distributi…
We study asymptotic properties of spatially non-homogeneous random walks with non-integrable increments, including transience, almost-sure bounds, and existence and non-existence of moments for first-passage and last-exit times. In our proofs we also make use of estimates for hitting probabilities and large deviations bounds. Our results are more general than existing results in the literature, which consider only the case of sums of independent (typically, identically distributed) random variables. We do not assume the Markov property. Existing results that we generalize include a circle of i…
This is a continuation of our earlier work [Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 129(1), pp.102--128, 2019] on the random walk in random scenery and in random layered conductance. We complete the picture of upper deviation of the random walk in random scenery, and also prove a bound on lower deviation probability. Based on these results, we determine asymptotics of the return probability, a certain moderate deviation probability, and the Green function of the random walk in random layered conductance.
Consider a branching random walk on the real line with a killing barrier at zero: starting from a nonnegative point, particles reproduce and move independently, but are killed when they touch the negative half-line. The population of the killed branching random walk dies out almost surely in both critical and subcritical cases, where by subcritical case we mean that the rightmost particle of the branching random walk without killing has a negative speed, and by critical case, when this speed is zero. We investigate the total progeny of the killed branching random walk and give their precise ta…
We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely general stopping times, uniformity of convergence over all stopping times and a wide class of nonlinear boundaries. We also give some examples and counterexamples.
We prove large deviation results for the position of the rightmost particle, denoted by $M_n$, in a one-dimensional branching random walk in a case when Cramér's condition is not satisfied. More precisely we consider step size distributions with stretched exponential upper and lower tails, i.e.~both tails decay as $e^{-|t|^r}$ for some $r\in( 0,1)$. It is known that in this case, $M_n$ grows as $n^{1/r}$ and in particular faster than linearly in $n$. Our main result is a large deviation principle for the laws of $n^{-1/r}M_n$ . In the proof we use a comparison with the maximum of (a random num…
We introduce a new random walk with unbounded memory obtained as a mixture of the Elephant Random Walk and the Dynamic Random Walk which we call the Dynamic Elephant Random Walk (DERW). As a consequence of this mixture the distribution of the increments of the resulting random process is time dependent. We prove a strong law of large numbers for the DERW and, in a particular case, we provide an explicit expression for its speed. Finally, we give sufficient conditions for the central limit theorem and the law of the iterated logarithm to hold.
We study models of discrete-time, symmetric, $\Z^{d}$-valued random walks in random environments, driven by a field of i.i.d. random nearest-neighbor conductances $ω_{xy}\in[0,1]$, with polynomial tail near 0 with exponent $γ>0$. We first prove for all $d\geq5$ that the return probability shows an anomalous decay (non-Gaussian) that approches (up to sub-polynomial terms) a random constant times $n^{-2}$ when we push the power $γ$ to zero. In contrast, we prove that the heat-kernel decay is as close as we want, in a logarithmic sense, to the standard decay $n^{-d/2}$ for large values of the par…
We consider a branching random walk on a multi($Q$)-type, supercritical Galton-Watson tree which satisfies Kesten-Stigum condition. We assume that the displacements associated with the particles of type $Q$ have regularly varying tails of index $α$, while the other types of particles have lighter tails than that of particles of type $Q$. In this article, we derive the weak limit of the sequence of point processes associated with the positions of the particles in the $n^{th}$ generation. We verify that the limiting point process is a randomly scaled scale-decorated Poisson point process (SScDPP…
Given a branching random walk $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ on $\mathbb{R}$, let $Z_n(A)$ be the number of particles located in interval $A$ at generation $n$. It is well known (e.g., \cite{biggins}) that under some mild conditions, $Z_n(\sqrt nA)/Z_n(\mathbb{R})$ converges a.s. to $ν(A)$ as $n\rightarrow\infty$, where $ν$ is the standard Gaussian measure. In this work, we investigate its large deviation probabilities under the condition that the step size or offspring law has heavy tail, i.e. the decay rate of $$\mathbb{P}(Z_n(\sqrt nA)/Z_n(\mathbb{R})>p)$$ as $n\rightarrow\infty$, where $p\in(ν(A),1)$. O…
In the present work, we investigate the case of Directed Polymer in a Random Environment (DPRE), when the increments of the random walk are heavy-tailed with tail-exponent equal to zero ($\mathbf{P}[|X_1|\geq n]$ decays slower than any power of $n$). This case has not yet been studied in the context of directed polymers and present key differences with the simple symmetric random walk case and the cases where the increments belong to the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law, where $α\in (0, 2]$. We establish the absence of a very strong disorder regime - that is, the free energy equals ze…
We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$, its variance, and the spectrum of the graph. Our proofs are more elementary than other proofs in the literature, and our results are sharper. We obtain Bernstein and Bennett-type inequalities, as well as an inequality for subgaussian variables.
The asymptotics of the probability that the self-intersection local time of a random walk on $\Z^d$ exceeds its expectation by a large amount is a fascinating subject because of its relation to some models from Statistical Mechanics, to large-deviation theory and variational analysis and because of the variety of the effects that can be observed. However, the proof of the upper bound is notoriously difficult and requires various sophisticated techniques. We survey some heuristics and some recently elaborated techniques and results. This is an extended summary of a talk held on the CIRM-confere…
We study a random walk on a complex of finitely many half-lines joined at a common origin; jumps are heavy-tailed and of two types, either one-sided (towards the origin) or two-sided (symmetric). Transmission between half-lines via the origin is governed by an irreducible Markov transition matrix, with associated stationary distribution $μ_k$. If $χ_k$ is $1$ for one-sided half-lines $k$ and $1/2$ for two-sided half-lines, and $α_k$ is the tail exponent of the jumps on half-line $k$, we show that the recurrence classification for the case where all $α_k χ_k \in (0,1)$ is determined by the sign…
In this paper, the local asymptotic estimation for the supremum of a random walk and its applications are presented. The summands of the random walk have common long-tailed and generalized strong subexponential distribution. This distribution class and the corresponding generalized local subexponential distribution class are two new distribution classes with some good properties. Further, some long-tailed distributions with intuitive and concrete forms are found, which show that the intersection of the two above-mentioned distribution classes with long-tailed distribution class properly contai…
We consider the sums $S_n=ξ_1+\cdots+ξ_n$ of independent identically distributed random variables. We do not assume that the $ξ$'s have a finite mean. Under subexponential type conditions on distribution of the summands, we find the asymptotics of the probability ${\bf P}\{M>x\}$ as $x\to\infty$, provided that $M=\sup\{S_n,\ n\ge1\}$ is a proper random variable. Special attention is paid to the case of tails which are regularly varying at infinity. We provide some sufficient conditions for the integrated weighted tail distribution to be subexponential. We supplement these conditions by a numbe…
We study the asymptotic tail probability of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for a random walk conditioned to return to zero, where the increments of the random walk have finite variance. Typically, the asymptotic tail behavior may be described through a regularly varying function with exponent -1/2, where the impact of the boundary is captured by the slowly varying function. Yet, the moving boundary may have a stronger effect when the tail is considered at a time close to the return point of the random walk bridge. In the latter case, a phase transition appears in the asymptotics…
We study the extremes of branching random walks under the assumption that the underlying Galton-Watson tree has infinite progeny mean. It is assumed that the displacements are either regularly varying or they have lighter tails. In the regularly varying case, it is shown that the point process sequence of normalized extremes converges to a Poisson random measure. We study the asymptotics of the scaled position of the rightmost particle in the $n$-th generation when the tail of the displacement behaves like $\exp(-K(x))$, where either $K$ is a regularly varying function of index $r> 0$, or $K$ …
We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and light-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for local probabilities for the area and prove a local central limit theorem for the duration of the excursion conditioned on the large values of its area.
This article studies asymptotic approximations of ruin probabilities of multivariate random walks with heavy-tailed increments. Under our assumptions, the distributions of the increments are closely connected to multivariate subexponentiality and admit dependence between components. Keywords: subexponential distribution, ruin probability, multivariate random walk
We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we exhibit natural conditions under which the asymptotics of the tail distribution of the overall maximum of S can be computed. We present results in discrete and in continuous time. In particular, in the absence of modulation, the process S in continuous time reduces to a Levy process with heavy-tailed Levy measure. A central point of the paper is that we make ful…
Let $(X_n:n\geq 0)$ be a sequence of i.i.d. r.v.'s with negative mean. Set $S_0=0$ and define $S_n=X_1+... +X_n$. We propose an importance sampling algorithm to estimate the tail of $M=\max \{S_n:n\geq 0\}$ that is strongly efficient for both light and heavy-tailed increment distributions. Moreover, in the case of heavy-tailed increments and under additional technical assumptions, our estimator can be shown to have asymptotically vanishing relative variance in the sense that its coefficient of variation vanishes as the tail parameter increases. A key feature of our algorithm is that it is stat…
The $N$-particle branching random walk is a discrete time branching particle system with selection. We have $N$ particles located on the real line at all times. At every time step each particle is replaced by two offspring, and each offspring particle makes a jump of non-negative size from its parent's location, independently from the other jumps, according to a given jump distribution. Then only the $N$ rightmost particles survive; the other particles are removed from the system to keep the population size constant. Inspired by work of J. Bérard and P. Maillard, we examine the long term behav…
