Parisian ruin probability in the classical Brownian risk model, unlike the standard ruin probability can not be explicitly calculated even in one-dimensional setup. Resorting on asymptotic theory, we derive in this contribution an asymptotic approximations of both Parisian and cumulative Parisian ruin probability and simultaneous ruin time for the two-dimensional Brownian risk model when the initial capital increases to infinity.
In this paper we propose new iterative algorithm of calculating the joint distribution of the Parisian ruin time and the number of claims until Parisian ruin for the classical risk model. Examples are provided when the generic claim size is exponentially distributed.
In this paper we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of Parisian ruin for self-similar Gaussian risk processes. Additionally, we obtain the normal approximation of the Parisian ruin time and derive an asymptotic relation between the Parisian and the classical ruin times.
In this paper we investigate the Parisian ruin probability for an integrated Gaussian process. Under certain assumptions, we find the Parisian ruin probability and the classical ruin probability are on the log-scale asymptotically the same. Moreover, for any small interval required by the risk process staying below level zero, the Parisian ruin probability and the classical one are the same also in the premise asymptotic behavior. Furthermore, we derive an approximation of the conditional ruin time.
In this paper we study the draw-down related Parisian ruin problem for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes. We introduce the draw-down Parisian ruin time and solve the corresponding two-sided exit time via excursion theory. We also obtain an expression of the potential measure for the process killed at the draw-down Parisian time. As applications, new results are obtained for spectrally negative Lévy risk process with dividend barrier and Parisian ruin.
We introduce the concept of cumulative Parisian ruin, which is based on the time spent in the red by the underlying surplus process. Our main result is an explicit representation for the distribution of the occupation time, over a finite-time horizon, for a compound Poisson process with drift and exponential claims. The Brownian ruin model is also studied in details. Finally, we analyze for a general framework the relationships between cumulative Parisian ruin and classical ruin, as well as with Parisian ruin based on exponential implementation delays.
In this paper we consider the Parisian ruin probabilities for the dual risk model in a discrete-time setting. By exploiting the strong Markov property of the risk process we derive a recursive expression for the fnite-time Parisian ruin probability, in terms of classic discrete-time dual ruin probabilities. Moreover, we obtain an explicit expression for the corresponding infnite-time Parisian ruin probability as a limiting case. In order to obtain more analytic results, we employ a conditioning argument and derive a new expression for the classic infinite-time ruin probability in the dual risk…
We consider an interesting natural extension to the Parisian ruin problem under the assumption that the risk reserve dynamics are given by a spectrally negative Lévy process. The distinctive feature of this extension is that the distribution of the random implementation delay windows' lengths can depend on the deficit at the epochs when the risk reserve process turns negative, starting a new negative excursion. This includes the possibility of an immediate ruin when the deficit hits a certain subset. In this general setting, we derive a closed-from expression for the Parisian ruin probability …
In the setting of a Lévy insurance risk process, we present some results regarding the Parisian ruin problem which concerns the occurrence of an excursion below zero of duration bigger than a given threshold $r$. First, we give the joint Laplace transform of ruin-time and ruin-position (possibly killed at the first-passage time above a fixed level $b$), which generalises known results concerning Parisian ruin. This identity can be used to compute the expected discounted penalty function via Laplace inversion. Second, we obtain the $q$-potential measure of the process killed at Parisian ruin. T…
Consider a multi-dimensional Brownian motion which models the surplus processes of multiple lines of business of an insurance company. Our main result gives exact asymptotics for the cumulative Parisian ruin probability as the initial capital tends to infinity. An asymptotic distribution for the conditional cumulative Parisian ruin time is also derived. The obtained results on the cumulative Parisian ruin can be seen as generalizations of some of the results derived in Debicki et al (2018, Stochastic Processes and Their Applications). As a particular interesting case, the two-dimensional Brown…
Let $(W_1(s), W_2(t)), s,t\ge 0$ be a bivariate Brownian motion with standard Brownian motion marginals and constant correlation $ρ\in (-1,1).$ Parisian ruin is defined as a classical ruin that happens over an extended period of time, the so-called time-in-red. We derive exact asymptotics for the non-simultaneous Parisian ruin of the company conditioned on the event of non-simultaneous ruin happening. We are interested in finding asymptotics of such problem as $u \to \infty$ and with the length of time-in-red being of order $\frac{1}{u^2},$ where $u$ represents initial capital for the companie…
In this paper we evaluate the probability of the discrete time Parisian ruin that occurs when surplus process stays below or at zero at least for some fixed duration of time $d>0$. We identify expressions for the ruin probabilities within finite and infinite-time horizon. We also find their light and heavy-tailed asymptotics when initial reserves approach infinity. Finally, we calculate these probabilities for a few explicit examples.
Let $B(t), t\in \mathbb{R}$ be a standard Brownian motion. In this paper, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of Parisian ruin on infinite time horizon for the following risk process \begin{align}\label{Rudef} R_u^δ(t)=e^{δt}\left(u+c\int^{t}_{0}e^{-δv}d v-σ\int_{0}^{t}e^{-δv}d B(v)\right),\quad t\geq0, \end{align} where $u\geq 0$ is the initial reserve, $δ\geq0$ is the force of interest, $c>0$ is the rate of premium and $σ>0$ is a volatility factor. Further, we show the asymptotics of the Parisian ruin time of this risk process.
Let $B(t), t\in \mathbb{R}$ be a standard Brownian motion. Define a risk process \label{Rudef} R_u^δ(t)=e^{δt}\left(u+c\int^{t}_{0}e^{-δs}d s-σ\int_{0}^{t}e^{-δs}d B(s)\right), t\geq0, where $u\geq 0$ is the initial reserve, $δ\geq0$ is the force of interest, $c>0$ is the rate of premium and $σ>0$ is a volatility factor. In this contribution we obtain an approximation of the Parisian ruin probability \mathcal{K}_S^δ(u,T_u):=\mathbb{P}\left\{\inf_{t\in[0,S]} \sup_{s\in[t,t+T_u]} R_u^δ(s)<0\right\}, S\ge 0, as $u\rightarrow\infty$ where $T_u$ is a bounded function. Further, we show that the Pari…
Inspired by works of Landriault et al. \cite{LRZ-0, LRZ}, we study discounted penalties at ruin for surplus dynamics driven by a spectrally negative Lévy process with Parisian implementation delays. To be specific, we study the so-called Gerber-Shiu functional for a ruin model where at each time the surplus process goes negative, an independent exponential clock with rate $q>0$ is started. If the clock rings before the surplus becomes positive again then the insurance company is ruined. Our methodology uses excursion theory for spectrally negative Lévy processes and relies on the theory of the…
Let $(W_1(s), W_2(t)), s,t\ge 0$ be a bivariate Brownian motion with standard Brownian motion marginals and constant correlation $ρ\in (-1,1).$ In this contribution we derive precise approximations for cumulative Parisian ruin conditioned on the occurrence of the ruin of the aforementioned two-dimensional Brownian motion, i.e. $$\mathbb{P}\left(\begin{array}{ccc}\int_{[0,1]} \mathbf{1}(W_1^*(s)>u)ds>H_1(u) \\ \int_{[0,1]} \mathbf{1}(W_2^*(t)>au)dt>H_2(u)\end{array}\Bigg{|}\exists_{v,w \in [0,1]}\begin{array}{ccc} W_1(v)-c_1v>u \\ W_2(w)-c_2w>au \end{array}\right).$$ We study the asymptotics fo…
For a risk process $R_u(t)=u+ct-X(t), t\ge 0$, where $u\ge 0$ is the initial capital, $c>0$ is the premium rate and $X(t),t\ge 0$ is an aggregate claim process, we investigate the probability of the Parisian ruin \[ \mathcal{P}_S(u,T_u)=\mathbb{P}\{\inf_{t\in[0,S]} \sup_{s\in[t,t+T_u]} R_u(s)<0\}, \] with a given positive constant $S$ and a positive measurable function $T_u$. We derive asymptotic expansion of $\mathcal{P}_S(u,T_u)$, as $u\to\infty$, for the aggregate claim process $X$ modeled by Gaussian processes. As a by-product, we derive the exact tail asymptotics of the infimum of a stand…
In this paper we investigate an optimal dividend problem with transaction costs, where the surplus process is modelled by a refracted Lévy process and the ruin time is considered with Parisian delay. Presence of the transaction costs implies that one need to consider the impulse control problem as a control strategy in such model. An impulse policy $(c_1,c_2)$, which is to reduce the reserves to some fixed level $c_1$ whenever they are above another level $c_2$ is an important strategy for the impulse control problem. Therefore, we give sufficient conditions under which the above described imp…
In this paper, we investigate Parisian ruin for a Lévy surplus process with an adaptive premium rate, namely a refracted Lévy process. More general Parisian boundary-crossing problems with a deterministic implementation delay are also considered. Our main contribution is a generalization of the result in Loeffen et al. (2013) for the probability of Parisian ruin of a standard Lévy insurance risk process. Despite the more general setup considered here, our main result is as compact and has a similar structure. Examples are provided.
In this paper, we study the concept of Parisian ruin under the hybrid observation scheme model introduced by Li et al. \cite{binetal2016}. Under this model, the process is observed at Poisson arrival times whenever the business is financially healthy and it is continuously observed when it goes below $0$. The Parisian ruin is then declared when the process stays below zero for a consecutive period of time greater than a fixed delay. We improve the result originally obtained in \cite{binetal2016} and we compute other fluctuation identities. All identities are given in terms of second-generation…
In this paper we analyze so-called Parisian ruin probability that happens when surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $ζ>0$. We focus on general spectrally negative Lévy insurance risk process. For this class of processes we identify expression for ruin probability in terms of some other quantities that could be possibly calculated explicitly in many models. We find its Cramér-type and convolution-equivalent asymptotics when reserves tends to infinity. Finally, we analyze few explicit examples.
In this paper we consider a classical risk process perturbed by a Brownian motion. We analyze the value function describing the mean of the cumulative discounted dividend payments paid up to Parisian ruin time and further discounted by the number of claims appeared up to this ruin time. We identify this value function for the barrier strategy and find the sufficient conditions for this strategy to be optimal. We also consider few particular examples.
We analyze the classical Brownian risk models discussing the approximation of ruin probabilities (classical, γ-reflected, Parisian and cumulative Parisian) for the case that ruin can occur only on specific discrete grids. A practical and natural grid of points is for instance G(1) = {0,1,2,...}, which allows us to study the probability of the ruin on the first day, second day, and so one. For such a discrete setting, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probabilities mentioned above. In this contribution we derive accurate approximations of ruin probabilities for uniform grids by lettin…
We consider de Finetti's stochastic control problem when the (controlled) process is allowed to spend time under the critical level. More precisely, we consider a generalized version of this control problem in a spectrally negative Lévy model with exponential Parisian ruin. We show that, under mild assumptions on the Lévy measure, an optimal strategy is formed by a barrier strategy and that this optimal barrier level is always less than the optimal barrier level when classical ruin is implemented. Also, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the barrier strategy at level zero to be op…
This paper presents some new results on Parisian ruin under Levy insurance risk process, where ruin occurs when the process has gone below a fixed level from the last record maximum, also known as the high-water mark or drawdown, for a fixed consecutive periods of time. The law of ruin-time and the position at ruin is given in terms of their joint Laplace transforms. Identities are presented semi-explicitly in terms of the scale function and the law of the Levy process. They are established using recent developments on fluctuation theory of drawdown of spectrally negative Levy process. In cont…
In this paper, we unify two popular approaches for the definition of actuarial ruin with implementation delays, also known as Parisian ruin. Our new definition of ruin includes both deterministic delays and exponentially distributed delays: ruin is declared the first time an excursion in the red zone lasts longer than an implementation delay with a deterministic and a stochastic component. For this Parisian ruin with mixed delays, we identify the joint distribution of the time of ruin and the deficit at ruin, therefore providing generalizations of many results previously obtained, such as in \…
We study the problem of minimizing the discounted probability of exponential Parisian ruin, that is, the discounted probability that an insurer's surplus exhibits an excursion below zero in excess of an exponentially distributed clock. The insurer controls its surplus via reinsurance priced according to the mean-variance premium principle, as in Liang, Liang, and Young (2019). We consider the classical risk model and apply stochastic Perron's method, as introduced by Bayraktar and Sirbu (2012,2013,2014), to show that the minimum discounted probability of exponential Parisian ruin is the unique…
In this note we give, for a spectrally negative Levy process, a compact formula for the Parisian ruin probability, which is defined by the probability that the process exhibits an excursion below zero, with a length that exceeds a certain fixed period r. The formula involves only the scale function of the spectrally negative Levy process and the distribution of the process at time r.
In this paper we consider dividend problem for an insurance company whose risk evolves as a spectrally negative Lévy process (in the absence of dividend payments) when Parisian delay is applied. The objective function is given by the cumulative discounted dividends received until the moment of ruin when so-called barrier strategy is applied. Additionally we will consider two possibilities of delay. In the first scenario ruin happens when the surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $ζ>0$. In the second case there is a time lag $d$ between decision of paying dividends a…
In this article, we introduce a new definition of bankruptcy for a spectrally negative Lévy insurance risk process. More precisely, we study the Gerber-Shiu distribution for a ruin model where at each time the surplus goes negative, an independent negative random level is considered. If a negative excursion of the surplus exceeds such random level then the insurance company goes out of business. Our methodology uses excursion theory and relies on the description of the excursion measure away from 0 which was recently obtained by the authors in Pardo et al. (see arXiv:1507.05225). Our results a…
We consider a company that receives capital injections so as to avoid ruin. Differently from the classical bail-out settings where the underlying process is restricted to stay at or above zero, we study the case bail-out can only be made at independent Poisson times. Namely, we study a version of the reflected process that is pushed up to zero only on Poisson observation times at which the process is below zero. We also study the case with additional classical reflection above so as to model a company that pays dividends according to a barrier strategy. Focusing on the spectrally negative Lévy…
In this paper, we consider a classical risk model refracted at given level. We give an explicit expression for the joint density of the ruin time and the cumulative number of claims counted up to ruin time. The proof is based on solving some integro-differential equations and employing the Lagrange's Expansion Theorem.
We study a general perturbed risk process with cumulative claims modelled by a subordinator with finite expectation, with the perturbation being a spectrally negative Levy process with zero expectation. We derive a Pollaczek-Hinchin type formula for the survival probability of that risk process, and give an interpretation of the formula based on the decomposition of the dual risk process at modified ladder epochs.
In this paper, we introduce an insurance ruin model with adaptive premium rate, thereafter refered to as restructuring/refraction, in which classical ruin and bankruptcy are distinguished. In this model, the premium rate is increased as soon as the wealth process falls into the red zone and is brought back to its regular level when the process recovers. The analysis is mainly focused on the time a refracted Lévy risk process spends in the red zone (analogous to the duration of the negative surplus). Building on results from Kyprianou and Loeffen (2010) and Loeffen et al. (2012), we identify th…
In this chapter we propose an extended concept of the expected discounted penalty function (EDPF) that takes into account new ruin-related random variables. We add to the EDPF, which was introduced in classical papers [Gerber and Shiu (1997), (1998) and Gerber and Landry (1998)], a sequence of expected discounted functions of new record minima reached by a jump of the risk process after ruin. Inspired by results of Huzak et al. (2004) and developpements in fluctuation theory for spectrally negative Lévy processes, we provide a characterization for this extended EDPF in a setting involving a cu…
We consider a dual risk model with constant expense rate and i.i.d. exponentially distributed gains $C_i$ ($i=1,2,\dots$) that arrive according to a renewal process with general interarrival times. We add to this classical dual risk model the proportional gain feature, that is, if the surplus process just before the $i$th arrival is at level $u$, then for $a>0$ the capital jumps up to the level $(1+a)u+C_i$. The ruin probability and the distribution of the time to ruin are determined. We furthermore identify the value of discounted cumulative dividend payments, for the case of a Poisson arriva…
This paper considers a Cramér-Lundberg risk setting, where the components of the underlying model change over time. These components could be thought of as the claim arrival rate, the claim-size distribution, and the premium rate, but we allow the more general setting of the cumulative claim process being modelled as a spectrally positive Lévy process. We provide an intuitively appealing mechanism to create such parameter uncertainty: at Poisson epochs we resample the model components from a finite number of $d$ settings. It results in a setup that is particularly suited to describe situations…
This paper concerns an optimal dividend distribution problem for an insurance company whose risk process evolves as a spectrally negative Lévy process (in the absence of dividend payments). The management of the company is assumed to control timing and size of dividend payments. The objective is to maximize the sum of the expected cumulative discounted dividend payments received until the moment of ruin and a penalty payment at the moment of ruin, which is an increasing function of the size of the shortfall at ruin; in addition, there may be a fixed cost for taking out dividends. A complete so…
Consider two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) that receive premiums at different rates and then split the amount they pay in fixed proportions for each claim (for simplicity we assume that they are equal). We model the occurrence of claims according to a Poisson process. The ruin is achieved when the corresponding two-dimensional risk process first leaves the positive quadrant. We will consider two scenarios of the controlled process: refraction and impulse control. In the first case the dividends are payed out when the two-dimensional risk process exits the fixed regi…
