Making use of a Rice-like series expansion, for a class of stationary Gaussian processes the asymptotic behavior of the first passage time probability density function through certain time-varying boundaries, including periodic boundaries, is determined. Sufficient conditions are then given such that the density asymptotically exhibits an exponential behavior when the boundary is either asymptotically constant or asymptotically periodic.
This paper concerns the first passage times of Bessel processes to a point on the positive real line. We are interested in the case when the process starts at a position on its right and compute the densities of the distributions of the passage time to obtain the asymptotic forms of them as time tends to infinity that are valid uniformly for the starting position.
We consider planar stationary exponential Last Passage Percolation in the positive quadrant with boundary weights. For $ρ\in (0,1)$ and points $v_N=((1-ρ)^2 N,ρ^2 N)$ going to infinity along the characteristic direction, we establish right tail estimates with the optimal exponent for the exit time of the geodesic, along with optimal exponent estimates for the upper tail moderate deviations for the passage time. For the case $ρ=\frac{1}{2}$ in the stationary model, we establish the lower bound estimate with the optimal exponent for the lower tail of the passage time. Our arguments are based on …
We study a first passage time of a Lévy process over a positive constant level. In the spectrally negative case we give conditions for absolutely continuity of the distributions of the first passage times. The tail asymptotics of their densities are also clarified, where the asymptotics depend on tail behaviour of the corresponding Lévy measures. We apply our results to the mathematical finance, in particular, the credit default swap pricing.
The spatial symmetry property of truncated birth-death processes studied in Di Crescenzo [6] is extended to a wider family of continuous-time Markov chains. We show that it yields simple expressions for first-passage-time densities and avoiding transition probabilities, and apply it to a bilateral birth-death process with jumps. It is finally proved that this symmetry property is preserved within the family of strongly similar Markov chains.
We propose a method for estimating first passage time densities of one-dimensional diffusions via Monte Carlo simulation. Our approach involves a representation of the first passage time density as expectation of a functional of the three-dimensional Brownian bridge. As the latter process can be simulated exactly, our method leads to almost unbiased estimators. Furthermore, since the density is estimated directly, a convergence of order $1 / \sqrt{N}$, where $N$ is the sample size, is achieved, the last being in sharp contrast to the slower non-parametric rates achieved by kernel smoothing of …
This article describes an accurate procedure for computing the mean first passage times of a finite irreducible Markov chain and a Markov renewal process. The method is a refinement to the Kohlas, Zeit fur Oper Res, 30,197-207, (1986) procedure. The technique is numerically stable in that it doesn't involve subtractions. Algebraic expressions for the special cases of one, two, three and four states are derived. A consequence of the procedure is that the stationary distribution of the embedded Markov chain does not need to be derived in advance but can be found accurately from the derived mean …
We study first passage percolation (FPP) with stationary edge weights on Cayley graphs of finitely generated virtually nilpotent groups. Previous works of Benjamini-Tessera and Cantrell-Furman show that scaling limits of such FPP are given by Carnot-Carathéodory metrics on the associated graded nilpotent Lie group. We show a converse, i.e. that for any Cayley graph of a finitely generated nilpotent group, any Carnot-Carathéodory metric on the associated graded nilpotent Lie group is the scaling limit of some FPP with stationary edge weights on that graph. Moreover, for any Cayley graph of any …
We construct a stochastic fluid process with an underlying piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) akin to the one used in the construction of the rational arrival process (RAP), which we call the RAP-modulated fluid process. As opposed to the classic stochastic fluid process driven by a Markov jump process, the underlying PDMP of a RAP-modulated fluid process has a continuous state space and is driven by matrix parameters which may not be related to an intensity matrix. Through novel techniques we show how well-known formulae associated to the classic stochastic fluid process, such as f…
In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo based algorithm for estimating the FPT density of a time-homogeneous SDE through a time-dependent frontier. We consider Brownian bridges as well as localized Daniels curve approximations to obtain tractable estimations of the FPT probability between successive points of a simulated path of the process. Under mild assumptions, a (unique) Daniels curve local approximation can easily be obtained by explicitly solving a non-linear system of equations.
We consider the boundary crossing problem for time-homogeneous diffusions and general curvilinear boundaries. Bounds are derived for the approximation error of the one-sided (upper) boundary crossing probability when replacing the original boundary by a different one. In doing so we establish the existence of the first-passage time density and provide an upper bound for this function. In the case of processes with diffusion interval equal to whole real line this is extended to a lower bound, as well as bounds for the first crossing time of a lower boundary. An extension to some time-inhomogene…
We study moderate deviations in the exponential corner growth model, both in the bulk setting and the increment-stationary setting. The main results are sharp right-tail bounds on the last-passage time and the exit point of the increment-stationary process. The arguments utilize calculations with the stationary version and a moment generating function identity due to E. Rains, for which we give a short probabilistic proof. As applications of the deviation bounds, we derive upper bounds on the speed of distributional convergence in the Busemann function and competition interface limits.
A well-known theorem usually attributed to Keilson states that, for an irreducible continuous-time birth-and-death chain on the nonnegative integers and any d, the passage time from state 0 to state d is distributed as a sum of d independent exponential random variables. Until now, no probabilistic proof of the theorem has been known. In this paper we use the theory of strong stationary duality to give a stochastic proof of a similar result for discrete-time birth-and-death chains and geometric random variables, and the continuous-time result (which can also be given a direct stochastic proof)…
We study the directed last-passage percolation model on the planar integer lattice with nearest-neighbor steps and general i.i.d. weights on the vertices, outside the class of exactly solvable models. Stationary cocycles are constructed for this percolation model from queueing fixed points. These cocycles serve as boundary conditions for stationary last-passage percolation, define solutions to variational formulas that characterize limit shapes, and yield new results for Busemann functions, geodesics and the competition interface.
We show non-existence of non-trivial bi-infinite geodesics in the solvable last-passage percolation model with i.i.d. geometric weights. This gives the first example of a model with discrete weights where non-existence of non-trivial bi-infinite geodesics has been proven. Our proofs rely on the structure of the increment-stationary versions of the model, following the approach recently introduced by Balázs, Busani, and Seppäläinen. Most of our results work for a general weights distribution and we identify the two properties of the stationary distributions which would need to be shown in order…
We determine the asymptotic speed of the first-passage percolation process on some ladder-like graphs (or width-2 stretches) when the times associated with different edges are independent and exponentially distributed but not necessarily all with the same mean. The method uses a particular Markov chain associated with the first-passage percolation process and properties of its stationary distribution.
We prove central limit theorems for additive functionals of stationary fields under integrability conditions on the higher-order spectral densities, which are derived using the Holder-Young-Brascamp-Lieb inequality.
Let $(X,\p_x)$ be a continuous time Markov chain with finite or countable state space $S$ and let $T$ be its first passage time in a subset $D$ of $S$. It is well known that if $μ$ is a quasi-stationary distribution relatively to $T$, then this time is exponentially distributed under $\p_μ$. However, quasi-stationarity is not a necessary condition. In this paper, we determine more general conditions on an initial distribution $μ$ for $T$ to be exponentially distributed under $\p_μ$. We show in addition how quasi-stationary distributions can be expressed in terms of any initial law which makes …
We study the directed last-passage percolation model on the planar square lattice with nearest-neighbor steps and general i.i.d. weights on the vertices, outside of the class of exactly solvable models. Stationary cocycles are constructed for this percolation model from queueing fixed points. These cocycles serve as boundary conditions for stationary last-passage percolation, solve variational formulas that characterize limit shapes, and yield existence of Busemann functions in directions where the shape has some regularity. In a sequel to this paper the cocycles will be used to prove results …
In this paper we study stationary last passage percolation (LPP) in half-space geometry. We determine the limiting distribution of the last passage time in a critical window close to the origin. The result is a new two-parameter family of distributions: one parameter for the strength of the diagonal bounding the half-space (strength of the source at the origin in the equivalent TASEP language) and the other for the distance of the point of observation from the origin. It should be compared with the one-parameter family giving the Baik--Rains distributions for full-space geometry. We finally sh…
The first-passage-time problem for a Brownian motion with alternating infinitesimal moments through a constant boundary is considered under the assumption that the time intervals between consecutive changes of these moments are described by an alternating renewal process. Bounds to the first-passage-time density and distribution function are obtained, and a simulation procedure to estimate first-passage-time densities is constructed. Examples of applications to problems in environmental sciences and mathematical finance are also provided.
Let $\{D(s), s \geq 0 \}$ be a Lévy subordinator, that is, a non-decreasing process with stationary and independent increments and suppose that $D(0) = 0$. We study the first-hitting time of the process $D$, namely, the process $E(t) = \inf \{s: D(s) > t \}$, $t \geq 0$. The process $E$ is, in general, non-Markovian with non-stationary and non-independent increments. We derive a partial differential equation for the Laplace transform of the $n$-time tail distribution function $P[E(t_1) > s_1,...,E(t_n) > s_n]$, and show that this PDE has a unique solution given natural boundary conditions. Thi…
We give necessary and sufficient conditions for the stationary density of semimartingale reflected Brownian motion in a wedge to be written as a finite sum of terms of exponential product form. Relying on geometric ideas reminiscent of the reflection principle, we give an explicit formula for the density in such cases.
We prove that for a standard Brownian motion, there exists a first-passage-time density function through a locally Hölder continuous curve with exponent greater than 1/2. By using a property of local time of a standard Brownian motion and the theories of partial differential equations in Cannon [2], we find a sufficient condition for existence of the density function. We also show that this density function is proportional to the space derivative of the Green function of the heat equation with Dirichlet boundary condition at the moving boundary.
Consider a Markov chain with finite state $\{0, 1, ..., d\}$. We give the generation functions (or Laplace transforms) of absorbing (passage) time in the following two situations : (1) the absorbing time of state $d$ when the chain starts from any state $i$ and absorbing at state $d$; (2) the passage time of any state $i$ when the chain starts from the stationary distribution supposed the chain is time reversible and ergodic. Example shows that it is more convenient compared with the existing methods, especially we can calculate the expectation of the absorbing time directly.
An (upward) skip-free Markov chain with the set of nonnegative integers as state space is a chain for which upward jumps may be only of unit size; there is no restriction on downward jumps. In a 1987 paper, Brown and Shao determined, for an irreducible continuous-time skip-free chain and any d, the passage time distribution from state 0 to state d. When the nonzero eigenvalues nu_j of the generator are all real, their result states that the passage time is distributed as the sum of d independent exponential random variables with rates nu_j. We give another proof of their theorem. In the case o…
We consider time correlation for KPZ growth in 1+1 dimensions in a neighborhood of a characteristics. We prove convergence of the covariance with droplet, flat and stationary initial profile. In particular, this provides a rigorous proof of the exact formula of the covariance for the stationary case obtained in [SIGMA 12 (2016), 074]. Furthermore, we prove the universality of the first order correction when the two observation times are close and provide a rigorous bound of the error term. This result holds also for random initial profiles which are not necessarily stationary.
We study the problem of coexistence in a two-type competition model governed by first-passage percolation on $\Zd$ or on the infinite cluster in Bernoulli percolation. Actually, we prove for a large class of ergodic stationary passage times that for distinct points $x,y\in\Zd$, there is a strictly positive probability that $\{z\in\Zd;d(y,z)<d(x,z)\}$ and $\{z\in\Zd;d(y,z)>d(x,z)\}$ are both infinite sets. We also show that there is a strictly positive probability that the graph of time-minimizing path from the origin in first-passage percolation has at least two topological ends. This generali…
We consider first-passage percolation with positive, stationary-ergodic weights on the square lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$. Let $T(x)$ be the first-passage time from the origin to a point $x$ in $\mathbb{Z}^d$. The convergence of the scaled first-passage time $T([nx])/n$ to the time-constant as $n \to \infty$ can be viewed as a problem of homogenization for a discrete Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. We derive an exact variational formula for the time-constant, and construct an explicit iteration that produces a minimizer of the variational formula (under a symmetry assumption). We explicitly…
We consider first-passage percolation with positive, stationary-ergodic weights on the square lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$. Let $T(x)$ be the first-passage time from the origin to a point $x$ in $\mathbb{Z}^d$. The convergence of the scaled first-passage time $T([nx])/n$ to the time-constant as $n$ tends to infinity can be viewed as a problem of homogenization for a discrete Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. By borrowing several tools from the continuum theory of stochastic homogenization for HJB equations, we derive an exact variational formula for the time-constant. We then construct an expl…
A multiplicative identity in law connecting the hitting times of completely asymmetric $α-$stable Lévy processes in duality is established. In the spectrally positive case, this identity allows with an elementary argument to compute fractional moments and to get series representations for the density. We also prove that the hitting times are unimodal as soon as $α\le 3/2.$ Analogous results are obtained, in a much simplified manner, for the first passage time across a positive level.
In this paper we consider the first passage process of a spectrally negative Markov additive process (MAP). The law of this process is uniquely characterized by a certain matrix function, which plays a crucial role in fluctuation theory. We show how to identify this matrix using the theory of Jordan chains associated with analytic matrix functions. Importantly, our result also provides us with a technique, which can be used to derive various further identities. We then proceed to show how to compute the stationary distribution associated with a one-sided reflected (at zero) MAP for both the sp…
Given a two-dimensional correlated diffusion process, we determine the joint density of the first passage times of the process to some constant boundaries. This quantity depends on the joint density of the first passage time of the first crossing component and of the position of the second crossing component before its crossing time. First we show that these densities are solutions of a system of Volterra-Fredholm first kind integral equations. Then we propose a numerical algorithm to solve it and we describe how to use the algorithm to approximate the joint density of the first passage times.…
We consider the problem of optimal estimation of the linear functional $A_Nξ=\sum_{k=0}^Na(k)ξ(k)$ depending on the unknown values of a stochastic sequence $ξ(m)$ with stationary increments from observations of the sequence $ξ(m)+η(m)$ at points of the set $\mathbb{Z}\setminus\{0,1,2,\ldots,N\}$, where $η(m)$ is a stationary sequence uncorrelated with $ξ(m)$. We propose formulas for calculating the mean square error and the spectral characteristic of the optimal linear estimate of the functional in the case of spectral certainty, where spectral densities of the sequences are exactly known. We …
We consider point to point last passage times to every vertex in a neighbourhood of size $δN^{\frac{2}{3}}$, distance $N$ away from the starting point. The increments of these last passage times in this neighbourhood are shown to be jointly equal to their stationary versions with high probability that depends on $δ$ only. With the help of this result we show that 1) the $\text{Airy}_2$ process is locally close to a Brownian motion in total variation; 2) the tree of point to point geodesics starting from every vertex in a box of side length $δN^{\frac{2}{3}}$ going to a point at distance $N$ ag…
In this paper, we consider the distribution of the supremum of non-stationary Gaussian processes, and present a new theoretical result on the asymptotic behaviour of this distribution. Unlike previously known facts in this field, our main theorem yields the asymptotic representation of the corresponding distribution function with exponentially decaying remainder term. This result can be efficiently used for studying the projection density estimates, based, for instance, on Legendre polynomials. More precisely, we construct the sequence of accompanying laws, which approximates the distribution …
We give an algorithm to construct a translation-invariant transport kernel between ergodic stationary random measures $Φ$ and $Ψ$ on $\mathbb R^d$, given that they have equal intensities. As a result, this yields a construction of a shift-coupling of an ergodic stationary random measure and its Palm version. This algorithm constructs the transport kernel in a deterministic manner given realizations $φ$ and $ψ$ of the measures. The (non-constructive) existence of such a transport kernel was proved in [8]. Our algorithm is a generalization of the work of [3], in which a construction is provided …
For a given centered Gaussian process with stationary increments $\{X(t), t\geq 0\}$ and $c>0$, let $$ W_γ(t)=X(t)-ct-γ\inf_{0\leq s\leq t}\left(X(s)-cs\right), \quad t\geq 0$$ denote the $γ$-reflected process, where $γ\in (0,1)$. This process is introduced in the context of risk theory to model surplus process that include tax payments of loss-carry forward type.In this contribution we derive asymptotic approximations of both the ruin probability and the joint distribution of first and last passage times given that ruin occurs. We apply our findings to the cases with $X$ being the multiplex f…
The problem of optimal estimation of linear functionals constructed from the unobserved values of a stochastic sequence with periodically stationary increments based on observations of the sequence with stationary noise is considered. For sequences with known spectral densities, we obtain formulas for calculating values of the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of the functionals. Formulas that determine the least favorable spectral densities and the minimax-robust spectral characteristics of the optimal linear estimates of functionals are proposed in …
We consider transport diffusion in a stochastic billiard in a random tube which is elongated in the direction of the first coordinate (the tube axis). Inside the random tube, which is stationary and ergodic, non-interacting particles move straight with constant speed. Upon hitting the tube walls, they are reflected randomly, according to the cosine law: the density of the outgoing direction is proportional to the cosine of the angle between this direction and the normal vector. Steady state transport is studied by introducing an open tube segment as follows: We cut out a large finite segment o…
We study stochastic sequences $ξ(k)$ with periodically stationary generalized multiple increments of fractional order which combines cyclostationary, multi-seasonal, integrated and fractionally integrated patterns. We solve the filtering problem for linear functionals constructed from unobserved values of a stochastic sequence $ξ(k)$ based on observations with the periodically stationary noise sequence. For sequences with known matrices of spectral densities, we obtain formulas for calculating values of the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of the fun…
We describe two classes of Gaussian self-similar random fields: with strictly stationary rectangular increments and with mild stationary rectangular increments. We find explicit spectral and moving average representations for the fields with strictly stationary rectangular increments and characterize fields with mild stationary rectangular increments by the properties of covariance functions of their Lamperti transformations as well as in terms of their spectral densities. We establish that both classes contain not only fractional Brownian sheets and we provide corresponding examples. As a by-…
We introduce stochastic sequences $ζ(k)$ with periodically stationary generalized multiple increments of fractional order which combines cyclostationary, multi-seasonal, integrated and fractionally integrated patterns. We solve the problem of optimal estimation of linear functionals constructed from unobserved values of stochastic sequences $ζ(k)$ based on their observations at points $ k<0$. For sequences with known spectral densities, we obtain formulas for calculating values of the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of functionals. Formulas that det…
This article studies several properties of the half-space last passage percolation, in particular the two-time covariance. We show that, when the two end-points are at small macroscopic distance, then the first order correction to the covariance for the point-to-point model is the same as the one of the stationary model. In order to obtain the result, we first derive comparison inequalities of the last passage increments for different models. This is used to prove tightness of the point-to-point process as well as localization of the geodesics. Unlike for the full-space case, for half-space we…
For stationary first passage percolation in two dimensions, the existence and uniqueness of semi-infinite geodesics directed in particular directions or sectors has been considered by Damron and Hanson (Commun. Math. Phys., 2014), Ahlberg and Hoffman (preprint, 2016), and others. However the main results do not cover geodesics in the direction of corners of the limit shape $\mathcal{B}$, where two facets meet. We construct an example with the following properties: (i) the limiting shape is an octagon, (ii) semi-infinite geodesics exist only in the four axis directions, and (iii) in each axis d…
We investigate classic diffusion with the added feature that a diffusing particle is reset to its starting point each time the particle reaches a specified threshold. In an infinite domain, this process is non-stationary and its probability distribution exhibits rich features. In a finite domain, we define a non-trivial optimization in which a cost is incurred whenever the particle is reset and a reward is obtained while the particle stays near the reset point. We derive the condition to optimize the net gain in this system, namely, the reward minus the cost.
