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arXiv 2103.06227econ.GNq-fin.EC
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气候-经济一体化模式的敏感性分析

Sensitivity analysis of an integrated climate-economic model

Benjamin M. Bolker, Matheus R. Grasselli, Emma Holmes

摘要:

我们进行了敏感性分析的一种新型的综合气候经济模型最近提出的文献中,其中的核心经济成分是基于古德温-基恩动态,而不是一个新古典增长模型。由于这些模型可以表现出更丰富的行为,包括多重均衡,失控的轨迹和无界振荡,这是至关重要的,以确定它们是如何敏感的基本参数的变化。我们专注于四个经济参数(加价率,价格调整的速度,货币错觉系数,生产率的增长率)和两个气候参数(海洋水库的大小,平衡气候敏感性),并展示了它们对模型结果的相对影响如何可以量化的方法,可以应用于任意数量的参数。

英文摘要:

We conduct a sensitivity analysis of a new type of integrated climate-economic model recently proposed in the literature, where the core economic component is based on the Goodwin-Keen dynamics instead of a neoclassical growth model. Because these models can exhibit much richer behaviour, including multiple equilibria, runaway trajectories and unbounded oscillations, it is crucial to determine how sensitive they are to changes in underlying parameters. We focus on four economic parameters (markup rate, speed of price adjustments, coefficient of money illusion, growth rate of productivity) and two climate parameters (size of upper ocean reservoir, equilibrium climate sensitivity) and show how their relative effects on the outcomes of the model can be quantified by methods that can be applied to an arbitrary number of parameters.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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