海平面上升导致的区域经济增长的实际与未来变化
Actualised and future changes in regional economic growth through sea level rise
AI总结：
本研究利用1900-2020年欧洲79个沿海地区的数据，量化海平面上升对GDP的影响，发现当前已致4.7%损失，未来至2100年损失或达6.3%-20.8%，为区域适应策略提供实证基础。
摘要：
本研究调查了海平面上升（SLR）对欧洲沿海地区的长期经济影响，重点关注国内生产总值（GDP）。利用涵盖1900年至2020年区域海平面上升和经济增长的新数据集，我们量化了79个欧盟及英国沿海地区海平面上升与区域人均GDP之间的关系。我们的结果显示，当前的海平面上升已经对沿海地区的GDP产生了负面影响，在海平面上升39厘米时导致累计4.7%的损失。在研究涵盖的120年期间，海平面上升对年增长率的实际影响在-0.02%至0.04%之间。将这些发现外推到未来的气候和社会经济情景，我们表明，在缺乏额外适应措施的情况下，到2100年，在最极端的海平面上升情景（SSP5-RCP8.5高端冰融化，或SSP5-RCP8.5高冰情景下为-4.0%至-14.1%）下，GDP损失可能在-6.3%至-20.8%之间。这项利用长达一个世纪的数据集进行的统计分析，为设计区域特定的气候适应策略以减轻海平面上升造成的经济损失提供了实证基础。我们的证据支持在保护投资具有经济影响的情况下，当经济上更优且社会可接受时，战略性地迁移资产和建立沿海退缩区的论点。
英文摘要：
This study investigates the long-term economic impact of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal regions in Europe, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a novel dataset covering regional SLR and economic growth from 1900 to 2020, we quantify the relationships between SLR and regional GDP per capita across 79 coastal EU & UK regions. Our results reveal that the current SLR has already negatively influenced GDP of coastal regions, leading to a cumulative 4.7% loss at 39 cm of SLR. Over the 120 year period studied, the actualised impact of SLR on the annual growth rate is between -0.02% and 0.04%. Extrapolating these findings to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we show that in the absence of additional adaptation measures, GDP losses by 2100 could range between -6.3% and -20.8% under the most extreme SLR scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5 High-end Ice, or -4.0% to -14.1% in SSP5-RCP8.5 High Ice). This statistical analysis utilising a century-long dataset, provides an empirical foundation for designing region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate economic damages caused by SLR. Our evidence supports the argument for strategically relocating assets and establishing coastal setback zones when it is economically preferable and socially agreeable, given that protection investments have an economic impact.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
