AI 中文总结
该研究构建整合AI影响的DICE模型，发现类ICT和类IR AI发展会加剧升温，气候成本抵消部分经济收益，减排与AI发展互补，投资权衡由AI经济前景驱动。
AI 中文摘要
人工智能（AI）与气候以多种方式相互作用，目前缺乏针对这种复杂相互作用的统一分析框架。为使AI投资与气候政策相契合，本文提出了这样一个框架，将AI对排放、产出及气候损害的影响整合进DICE模型中。本文区分了类信息通信技术（ICT）AI前景与类工业革命（IR）AI前景。基于现有最佳证据进行校准后发现，AI发展整体会造成污染。在当前减排力度较低的情况下，到2100年，类ICT AI会使升温增加0.1摄氏度，类IR AI会使升温增加0.8摄氏度。相关的气候成本分别抵消了AI经济收益的约五分之一和四分之一。若要实现2摄氏度的温控目标，到2100年，最优类ICT（类IR）AI投资率会从低减排情景下的3.3%（5.1%）提升至3.7%（12.7%），这表明减排与AI发展是互补的。本文进一步表明，AI与减排之间的投资权衡主要由AI的经济前景驱动，而非其排放足迹。
英文摘要
Artificial intelligence (AI) interacts with climate in various ways, while a unified analytical framework of this intricate interplay is lacking. To align AI investment with climate policy, we propose such a framework integrating AI's impact on emissions, output, and climate damages into the DICE model. We distinguish between ICT-like and Industrial Revolution (IR)-like AI prospects. Calibrated to the best available evidence, we find that AI development is net polluting. Under current low abatement, ICT-like AI adds 0.1 degree C to 2100 warming, while IR-like AI adds 0.8 degree C. The associated climate costs offset roughly one-fifth and one-quarter of AI's economic gains, respectively. Meeting the 2 degree C target saves the optimal ICT(IR)-like AI investment rate by 2100 from 3.3% (5.1%) under the low-abatement scenario to 3.7% (12.7%), indicating that mitigation is complementary to AI development. We further show that the investment trade-off between AI and abatement is driven primarily by AI's economic prospects, not by its emissions footprint.
