基于E3ME-FTT-GENIE的气候变化政策环境影响评估
Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE
AI总结：
本文提出一种基于模拟的综合评估模型，用于评估气候变化政策的社会经济影响，结合宏观经济模拟、技术扩散模拟和碳循环模型，以实现巴黎协定目标。
摘要：
在气候科学中，人类对大气的干扰在改变气候中的作用已达成高度共识。根据《巴黎协定》，政策界也达成共识，认为应对气候变化的政策解决方案紧迫性很高。因此，气候政策的背景正从议程设定转向影响评估，即识别实现《巴黎协定》的政策路径。目前用于评估避免气候变化的经济和技术可行性的一体化评估模型大多基于工程视角，采用规范系统优化哲学，适合议程设定，但无法评估现实政策组合的社会经济影响。本文介绍了一种完全描述性的、基于模拟的一体化评估模型，专门用于评估政策，由（1）基于时间序列回归的高 disaggregated 宏观经济模拟（E3ME）、（2）基于横截面离散选择模型的底部向上进化模拟技术扩散模型（FTT）以及（3）中等复杂度的碳循环和大气循环模型（GENIE-1）组成。我们利用这种综合模型创建了详细的全球和部门政策图景和情景，使经济走上实现《巴黎协定》目标的路径，有>66%的概率不超出2$^\circ$C的全球变暖。我们提出了一种新的综合评估模型在即将到来的政策评估背景中的新角色蓝图。
英文摘要：
A high degree of consensus exists in the climate sciences over the role that human interference with the atmosphere is playing in changing the climate. Following the Paris Agreement, a similar consensus exists in the policy community over the urgency of policy solutions to the climate problem. The context for climate policy is thus moving from agenda setting, which has now been mostly established, to impact assessment, in which we identify policy pathways to implement the Paris Agreement. Most integrated assessment models currently used to address the economic and technical feasibility of avoiding climate change are based on engineering perspectives with a normative systems optimisation philosophy, suitable for agenda setting, but unsuitable to assess the socio-economic impacts of a realistic baskets of climate policies. Here, we introduce a fully descriptive, simulation-based integrated assessment model designed specifically to assess policies, formed by the combination of (1) a highly disaggregated macro-econometric simulation of the global economy based on time series regressions (E3ME), (2) a family of bottom-up evolutionary simulations of technology diffusion based on cross-sectional discrete choice models (FTT), and (3) a carbon cycle and atmosphere circulation model of intermediate complexity (GENIE-1). We use this combined model to create a detailed global and sectoral policy map and scenario that sets the economy on a pathway that achieves the goals of the Paris Agreement with >66% probability of not exceeding 2$^\circ$C of global warming. We propose a blueprint for a new role for integrated assessment models in this upcoming policy assessment context.
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