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arXiv 2109.00643eess.SYcs.SYecon.GNq-fin.EC
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利用温度敏感性估算可转移电力需求:对电力系统投资与气候变化的影响

Using Temperature Sensitivity to Estimate Shiftable Electricity Demand: Implications for power system investments and climate change

Michael J. Roberts, Sisi Zhang, Eleanor Yuan, James Jones, Matthias Fripp

AI总结:

该研究利用美国31个区域的天气与用电数据估算温度敏感型需求,发现仅转移其中一半即可消除约四分之三的日内区域需求波动,并证明其与跨区输电改善互补,可缓解气候变化下的峰值负荷压力。

摘要:

间歇性可再生能源的增长和气候变化使得管理电力需求波动性变得日益困难。集中式储能可以提供帮助,但成本高昂。一种替代方案是转移需求。制冷和供暖需求规模可观,并且可以利用热储能以经济的方式进行转移。为了估算大规模部署的热储能可能如何重塑电力负荷,我们将精细尺度的天气数据与逐时用电数据相结合,估算了覆盖美国本土的31个区域中温度敏感型需求所占的份额。随后,我们展示了在改善和不改善区域间输电两种情况下,通过转移温度敏感型负荷能够减少多少波动性。我们发现,仅转移一半的温度敏感型需求,就可以消除大约四分之三的日内、区域内的需求波动性。转移温度敏感型需求所带来的降低波动性的效益,与改善区域间输电所获得的效益相辅相成,并极大地缓解了气候变化下满足更高峰值负荷的挑战。

英文摘要:

Growth of intermittent renewable energy and climate change make it increasingly difficult to manage electricity demand variability. Centralized storage can help but is costly. An alternative is to shift demand. Cooling and heating demands are substantial and can be economically shifted using thermal storage. To estimate what thermal storage, employed at scale, might do to reshape electricity loads, we pair fine-scale weather data with hourly electricity use to estimate the share of temperature-sensitive demand across 31 regions that span the continental United States. We then show how much variability can be reduced by shifting temperature-sensitive loads, with and without improved transmission between regions. We find that approximately three quarters of within-day, within-region demand variability can be eliminated by shifting just half of temperature-sensitive demand. The variability-reducing benefits of shifting temperature-sensitive demand complement those gained from improved interregional transmission, and greatly mitigate the challenge of serving higher peaks under climate change.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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