不确定性下的动态储能运行与可靠性外部性：对容量投资的启示
Dynamic Storage Operation Under Uncertainty and the Reliability Externality: Implications for Capacity Investments
中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究针对储能运行的动态特性，构建平均成本马尔可夫决策过程模型，揭示需求不确定性催生预防性储能策略，且电力市场可靠性外部性会扭曲储能运行与投资，为容量投资提供启示。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
储能日益被用于应对可再生能源波动和电气化带来的短期需求不确定性。与传统发电机不同，储能对可靠性的贡献取决于政策，需在短期套利与未来稀缺风险间权衡。本研究探讨需求不确定性如何改变此类动态储能运行，以及这些运行决策如何传导至长期投资结果。我们将储能运行建模为平均成本马尔可夫决策过程，并将得到的平稳策略嵌入简化的容量扩展框架。需求不确定性引发预防性储能策略，以对冲随机稀缺性，导致储能后的需求分布与完全预见基准存在显著差异。我们还证明，电力市场特有的可靠性外部性会以独特方式与不确定性相互作用，进而扭曲储能运行与投资。
英文摘要
Energy storage is increasingly relied upon to meet short-term demand uncertainties from renewable variability and electrification. Unlike conventional generators, storage's contribution to reliability is policy-dependent and balances near-term arbitrage against future scarcity risk. We study how demand uncertainty alters such dynamic storage operation and how these operating decisions propagate into long-run investment outcomes. We formulate storage operation as an average-cost Markov decision process and embed the resulting stationary policies into a stylized capacity expansion framework. Demand uncertainty induces a precautionary storage policy which hedges against stochastic scarcity, leading to materially different post-storage demand distributions relative to perfect-foresight benchmarks. We additionally demonstrate that the reliability externality characteristic of electricity markets interacts with uncertainty in a manner that uniquely distorts both storage operation and investment.
