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arXiv 2102.13110econ.GNq-fin.EC
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天气和气候对经济的影响

The economic impact of weather and climate

Richard S. J. Tol

摘要:

我提出了一个新的概念框架,以解开天气和气候对经济活动和增长的影响:一个随机前沿模型,气候在生产前沿和天气冲击作为低效率的来源。我在1950-2014年期间对160个国家的样本进行了测试。温度和降雨量决定了富国和穷国的生产可能性;在寒冷的国家是有利的,在炎热的国家是不利的。气候异常降低了富裕国家的效率,但增加了贫穷和炎热国家的效率;在天气变化率低的国家更是如此。气候的影响大于天气的影响。

英文摘要:

I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I test it on a sample of 160 countries over the period 1950-2014. Temperature and rainfall determine production possibilities in both rich and poor countries; positively in cold countries and negatively in hot ones. Weather anomalies reduce inefficiency in rich countries but increase inefficiency in poor and hot countries; and more so in countries with low weather variability. The climate effect is larger that the weather effect.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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