arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2007.00449econ.GNcs.NEcs.SYeess.SYq-fin.EC
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气候-经济动态集成模式的多目标最优控制:行动中的进化

Multi-objective Optimal Control of Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and Economy: Evolution in Action

Mostapha Kalami Heris, Shahryar Rahnamayan

摘要:

研究气候变化经济学的广泛使用的模型之一是气候与经济的动态综合模型(DICE),该模型由2018年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者之一William Nordhaus教授开发。DICE动力学最初被定义为一个单目标最优控制问题,其目标是使社会福利最大化。本文在DICE模型上定义了一个双目标最优控制问题,其目标是最大化社会福利和最小化大气温度偏差。这个多目标最优控制问题的解决,使用非支配排序遗传算法II(NSGA-II),它也是比较以前的作品单目标版本的问题。由此产生的帕累托前沿重新发现以前的结果,并推广到广泛的非主导解决方案,以最大限度地减少全球温度偏差,同时优化经济福利。以前使用的单目标方法无法创建这样多种可能性,因此,其提供的解决方案在视觉和可达到的性能方面受到限制。除此之外,由此产生的帕累托最优集揭示了一个事实,即温度偏差不能低于某个下限,除非我们有重大的技术进步或全球条件的积极变化。

英文摘要:

One of the widely used models for studying economics of climate change is the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (DICE), which has been developed by Professor William Nordhaus, one of the laureates of the 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Originally a single-objective optimal control problem has been defined on DICE dynamics, which is aimed to maximize the social welfare. In this paper, a bi-objective optimal control problem defined on DICE model, objectives of which are maximizing social welfare and minimizing the temperature deviation of atmosphere. This multi-objective optimal control problem solved using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) also it is compared to previous works on single-objective version of the problem. The resulting Pareto front rediscovers the previous results and generalizes to a wide range of non-dominant solutions to minimize the global temperature deviation while optimizing the economic welfare. The previously used single-objective approach is unable to create such a variety of possibilities, hence, its offered solution is limited in vision and reachable performance. Beside this, resulting Pareto-optimal set reveals the fact that temperature deviation cannot go below a certain lower limit, unless we have significant technology advancement or positive change in global conditions.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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