压载水法规对国际贸易、航运模式和全球经济的潜在影响：综合运输和经济模拟评估
Potential impacts of ballast water regulations on international trade, shipping patterns, and the global economy: An integrated transportation and economic modeling assessment
摘要：
旨在减少水生物种入侵的全球压载水管理法规要求采取可能增加航运成本的行动。我们采用综合航运成本和全球经济建模的方法来研究压载水法规对双边贸易，国家经济和航运模式的影响。鉴于物种入侵的区域热点地区可能需要更严格的监管，这项工作考虑了两种压载水处理政策方案：实施现行国际法规，以及可能更严格的区域法规，针对往返美国的船舶，而其他船舶继续面临现行标准。我们发现，压载水管理的合规成本在这两种情况下会导致对国际贸易和国家经济的整体温和的负面影响。然而，对美国港口实施更严格的规定预计将对少数国家的几种特定商品的双边贸易产生重大负面影响。贸易转移导致美国某些产品的进口减少，导致轻微的经济福利损失。
英文摘要：
Global ballast water management regulations aiming to decrease aquatic species invasion require actions that can increase shipping costs. We employ an integrated shipping cost and global economic modeling approach to investigate the impacts of ballast water regulations on bilateral trade, national economies, and shipping patterns. Given the potential need for more stringent regulation at regional hotspots of species invasions, this work considers two ballast water treatment policy scenarios: implementation of current international regulations, and a possible stricter regional regulation that targets ships traveling to and from the United States while other vessels continue to face current standards. We find that ballast water management compliance costs under both scenarios lead to modest negative impacts on international trade and national economies overall. However, stricter regulations applied to U.S. ports are expected to have large negative impacts on bilateral trade of several specific commodities for a few countries. Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products, leading to minor economic welfare losses.
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