碳排放的社会成本：这些数字到底意味着什么？
Social Cost of Carbon: What Do the Numbers Really Mean?
摘要：
碳的社会成本（SCC）由综合评估模型（IAM）估算，并被政府机构广泛用于评估气候政策的影响。虽然有一个正在进行的辩论获得的数值估计和相关的不确定性，很少有人注意到迄今为止的SCC计算方法本身。这项工作试图填补空白，提供理论背景和经济解释的SCC计算方法中实施的开源IAM DICE（气候和经济的动态集成模型）。我们的分析表明，目前的计算方法提供了一个近似值，在某些情况下可能会很好地工作，而在其他情况下，估计值大大（由四个因素）偏离“真实”值。这一偏离的原因是，目前的计算方法无法抓住综合管理的两个关键组成部分-复杂的相互关联的系统-气候和经济之间的联系，两者都受到减排政策的影响。在DICE的建模框架内，目前估计的SCC评估政策不受控制的排放量与经济上不合理的消费，这使得它与气候经济政策的应用无关，因此，需要用一个更合适的指标来替代。可用于政策制定的一个明显的SCC替代方案是DICE模型的直接输出-社会最优边际减排成本，它对应于最佳碳排放减排水平的技术可能性。在政策制定中，由于之前采用的隐式近似，需要高度重视早期获得的SCC估计的使用。
英文摘要：
Social cost of carbon (SCC) is estimated by integrated assessment models (IAM) and is widely used by government agencies to value climate policy impacts. While there is an ongoing debate about obtained numerical estimates and related uncertainties, little attention has been paid so far to the SCC calculation method itself. This work attempts to fill the gap by providing theoretical background and economic interpretation of the SCC calculation approach implemented in the open-source IAM DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy). Our analysis indicates that the present calculation method provides an approximation that might work pretty well in some cases, while in the other cases the estimated value substantially (by the factor of four) deviates from the "true" value. This deviation stems from the inability of the present calculation method to catch the linkages between two key IAM's components -- complex interconnected systems -- climate and economy, both influenced by emission abatement policies. Within the modeling framework of DICE, the presently estimated SCC valuates policy-uncontrolled emissions against economically unjustified consumption, which makes it irrelevant for application in climate-economic policies and, therefore, calls for a replacement by a more appropriate indicator. An apparent SCC alternative, which can be employed for policy formulation is the direct output of the DICE model -- the socially optimal marginal abatement cost (SMAC), which corresponds to technological possibilities at optimal level of carbon emissions abatement. In policy making, because of the previously employed implicit approximation, great attention needs to be paid to the use of SCC estimates obtained earlier.
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