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arXiv 2009.03607cs.GT
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用说服法计算预测市场的均衡

Computing Equilibria of Prediction Markets via Persuasion

Jerry Anunrojwong, Yiling Chen, Bo Waggoner, Haifeng Xu

摘要:

我们研究了预测市场中均衡的计算,这可能是最基本的特殊情况,有两个玩家和三个交易机会。为了做到这一点,我们证明了预测市场均衡与Kong和Schoenebeck(2018)引入的具有承诺的简单信号博弈的等价性。然后,我们扩展他们的结果,计算效率高的算法,额外的参数制度。我们的方法利用了预测市场和贝叶斯说服之间的新联系,这也揭示了有趣的概念见解。

英文摘要:

We study the computation of equilibria in prediction markets in perhaps the most fundamental special case with two players and three trading opportunities. To do so, we show equivalence of prediction market equilibria with those of a simpler signaling game with commitment introduced by Kong and Schoenebeck (2018). We then extend their results by giving computationally efficient algorithms for additional parameter regimes. Our approach leverages a new connection between prediction markets and Bayesian persuasion, which also reveals interesting conceptual insights.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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