Statistical evaluations of the economic mobility of a society are more difficult than measurements of the income distribution, because they require to follow the evolution of the individuals' income for at least one or two generations. In micro-to-macro theoretical models of economic exchanges based on kinetic equations, the income distribution depends only on the asymptotic equilibrium solutions, while mobility estimates also involve the detailed structure of the transition probabilities of the model, and are thus an important tool for assessing its validity. Empirical data show a remarkably general negative correlation between economic inequality and mobility, whose explanation is still unclear. It is therefore particularly interesting to study this correlation in analytical models. In previous work we investigated the behavior of the Gini inequality index in kinetic models in dependence on several parameters which define the binary interactions and the taxation and redistribution processes: saving propensity, taxation rates gap, tax evasion rate, welfare means-testing etc. Here, we check the correlation of mobility with inequality by analyzing the mobility dependence from the same parameters. According to several numerical solutions, the correlation is confirmed to be negative.
Colleting the data through a survey in the Northern region of Malaysia; Kedah, Perlis, Penang and Perak, this study investigates intergenerational social mobility in Malaysia. We measure and analyzed the factors that influence social-economic mobility by using binary choice model (logit model). Social mobility can be measured in several ways, by income, education, occupation or social class. More often, economic research has focused on some measure of income. Social mobility variable is measured using the difference between educational achievement between a father and son. If there is a change…
We consider a number of Artificial Chemistry models for economic activity and what consequences they have for the formation of economic inequality. We are particularly interested in what tax measures are effective in dampening economic inequality. By starting from well-known kinetic exchange models, we examine different scenarios for reducing the tendency of economic activity models to form unequal wealth distribution in equilibrium.
Using three rounds of NSS datasets, the present paper attempts to understand the relationship between income inequality and intergenerational income mobility (IGIM) by segregating generations into social and income classes. The originality of the paper lies in assessing the IGIM using different approaches, which we expect to contribute to the existing literature. We conclude that the country has low-income mobility and high inequality which is no longer associated with a particular social class in India. Also, both may have a negative or positive relationship, hence needs to be studied at a re…
This work presents the analysis of the impact of restrictions on mobility in Italy, with a focus on the period from 6 November 2020 to 31 January 2021, when a three-tier system based on different levels of risk was adopted and applied at regional level to contrast the second wave of COVID-19. The impact is first evaluated on mobility using Mobile Network Operator anonymised and aggregate data shared in the framework of a Business-to-Government initiative with the European Commission. Mobility data, alongside additional information about electricity consuption, are then used to assess the impac…
We build a deep-learning-based SEIR-AIM model integrating the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiology model with forecast modules of infection, community mobility, and unemployment. Through linking Google's multi-dimensional mobility index to economic activities, public health status, and mitigation policies, our AI-assisted model captures the populace's endogenous response to economic incentives and health risks. In addition to being an effective predictive tool, our analyses reveal that the long-term effective reproduction number of COVID-19 equilibrates around one befo…
Recent studies have found evidence of a negative association between economic complexity and inequality at the country level. Moreover, evidence suggests that sophisticated economies tend to outsource products that are less desirable (e.g. in terms of wage and inequality effects), and instead focus on complex products requiring networks of skilled labor and more inclusive institutions. Yet the negative association between economic complexity and inequality on a coarse scale could hide important dynamics at a fine-grained level. Complex economic activities are difficult to develop and tend to c…
Our computational economic analysis investigates the relationship between inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process. Extending the baseline model by Levy et al., we characterise the economic process through stylised return structures generating alternative evolutions of income and wealth through time. First, we explore the limited heuristic contribution of one and two factors models comprising one single stock (capital wealth) and one single flow factor (labour) as pure drivers of income and wealth generation and allocation over time. Second, we introduce heuristic modes of t…
Social mobility captures the extent to which socio-economic status of children, is independent of status of their respective parents. In order to measure social mobility, most widely used indicators of socio-economic status are income, education and occupation. While social mobility measurement based on income is less contested, data availability in Indian context limits us to observing mobility patterns along the dimensions of either education or occupation. In this study we observe social mobility patterns for different social groups along these two main dimensions, and find that while upwar…
This paper investigates the relationships between economic growth, investment in human capital and income equality in Turkey. The conclusion drawn based on the data from the OECD and the World Bank suggests that economic growth can improve income equality depending on the expenditures undertaken by the government. As opposed to the standard view that economic growth and income inequality are positively related, the findings of this paper suggest that other factors such as education and healthcare spending are also driving factors of income inequality in Turkey. The proven positive impact of in…
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data, our analysis shows that the spatial dissemination of COVID-19 can be well explained by a local diffusion process in the mobility network rather than a global diffusion process, indicating the effectiveness of the implemented disease prevention and control measures. Based on the constructed case prediction model, it is estimated that there could be distinct social consequences i…
The study of human mobility patterns is a crucially important research field for its impact on several socio-economic aspects and, in particular, the measure of regularity patters of human mobility can provide a across-the-board view of many social distancing variables in epidemics such as: human movement trends, physical interpersonal distances and population density. We will show that the notion of information entropy is also strongly related to demographic and economic trends by the use and analysis of real-time data. In the present research paper we address three different problems. First,…
To contain the pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Mainland China, the authorities have put in place a series of measures, including quarantines, social distancing, and travel restrictions. While these strategies have effectively dealt with the critical situations of outbreaks, the combination of the pandemic and mobility controls has slowed China's economic growth, resulting in the first quarterly decline of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since GDP began to be calculated, in 1992. To characterize the potential shrinkage of the domestic economy, from the perspective of mobility, we propose two…
Reductions in the cost of genetic sequencing have enabled the construction of large datasets including both genetic and phenotypic data. Based on these datasets, polygenic scores (PGSs) summarizing an individual's genetic propensity for educational attainment have been constructed. It is by now well established that this PGS predicts wages, income, and occupational prestige and occupational mobility across generations. It is unknown whether a PGS for educational attainment can predict upward income and occupational mobility even within the peak earning years of an individual. Using data from t…
We explore the role of non-ergodicity in the relationship between income inequality, the extent of concentration in the income distribution, and mobility, the feasibility of an individual to change their position in the income distribution. For this purpose, we explore the properties of an established model for income growth that includes "resetting" as a stabilising force which ensures stationary dynamics. We find that the dynamics of inequality is regime-dependent and may range from a strictly non-ergodic state where this phenomenon has an increasing trend, up to a stable regime where inequa…
This chapter provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence from the perspective of economic models of skill acquisition and investment in human capital. The models account for different channels underlying unequal education and highl…
Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions and Income Inequality
Macro Connections, The MIT Media Lab（麻省理工学院媒体实验室）；Fraunhofer Center for International Management and Knowledge Economy（弗劳恩霍夫国际管理与知识经济中心）；Chair for Innovation Management und Economics, University of Leipzig（莱比锡大学创新管理与经济学教席）；Department of Computer Science, Universidad de Playa Ancha（阿纳查海滩大学计算机科学系）；Department of Informatics, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María（费德里科·圣玛丽亚技术大学信息学系）
For centuries, national economies created wealth by engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also create systemic risk: economic shocks, triggered by company failures in one country, may propagate to other countries. Using global supply network data on the firm-level, we present a method to estimate a country's exposure to direct and indirect economic losses caused by the failure of a company in another country. We show the network of systemic risk-flows across the world. We find that rich countries …
Social and political polarization is a significant source of conflict and poor governance in many societies. Thus, understanding its causes has become a priority of scholars across many disciplines. Here we demonstrate that shifts in socialization strategies analogous to political polarization and identity politics can arise as a locally-beneficial response to both rising wealth inequality and economic decline. Adopting a perspective of cultural evolution, we develop a framework to study the emergence of polarization under shifting economic environments. In many contexts, interacting with dive…
The question about fair income inequality has been an important open question in economics and in political philosophy for over two centuries with only qualitative answers such as the ones suggested by Rawls, Nozick, and Dworkin. We provided a quantitative answer recently, for an ideal free-market society, by developing a game-theoretic framework that proved that the ideal inequality is a lognormal distribution of income at equilibrium. In this paper, we develop another approach, using the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) framework, which also leads to the same conclusion. Even though the conclu…
Standard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers, and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the stead-state. Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household makes a savings decision of how much to consume or invest. In our model households are myopic boundedly rational heterogeneous agents embedded in a social network. From time to time each household updates its savings rate by copying the savings rate of its neighbor with the highe…
This is an introductory textbook of the history of economics of inequality for undergraduates and genreral readers. It begins with Adam Smith's critique of Rousseau. The first and second chapters focus on Smith and Karl Marx, in the broad classical tradition of economics, where it is believed that there is an inseparable relationship between production and distribution, economic growth and inequality. Chapters 3 and 4 argue that despite the fact that the founders of the neoclassical school had shown an active interest in social issues, namely worker poverty, the issues of production and distri…
Structural Change, Employment, and Inequality in Europe: an Economic Complexity Approach
European Commission, Joint Research Center（欧盟委员会联合研究中心）；Enrico Fermi Research Center（恩里科·费米研究中心）；UNU-MERIT and Maastricht University（联合国大学欧洲社会研究所学术院和马斯特里赫特大学）
We propose a highly schematic economic model in which, in some cases, wage inequalities lead to higher overall social welfare. This is due to the fact that high earners can consume low productivity, non essential products, which allows everybody to remain employed even when the productivity of essential goods is high and producing them does not require everybody to work. We derive a relation between heterogeneities in technologies and the minimum Gini coefficient required to maximize global welfare. Stronger inequalities appear to be economically unjustified. Our model may shed light on the ro…
Exponential Structure of Income Inequality: Evidence from 67 Countries
Southwest University（西南大学）；Hangzhou Dianzi University（杭州电子科技大学）；University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学）；Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学）；University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校）
Rapid rise in income inequality in India is a serious concern. While the emphasis is on inclusive growth, it seems difficult to tackle the problem without looking at the intricacies of the problem. The Social Mobility Index is an important tool that focuses on bringing long-term equality by identifying priority policy areas in the country. The PCA technique is employed in computation of the index. Overall, the Union Territory of Delhi ranks first, with the highest social mobility and the least social mobility is in Chhattisgarh. In addition, health and education access, quality and equity are …
The form of political polarization where citizens develop strongly negative attitudes towards out-party policies and members has become increasingly prominent across many democracies. Economic hardship and social inequality, as well as inter-group and racial conflict, have been identified as important contributing factors to this phenomenon known as "affective polarization." Such partisan animosities are exacerbated when these interests and identities become aligned with existing party cleavages. In this paper we use a model of cultural evolution to study how these forces combine to generate a…
A Lifecycle Estimator of Intergenerational Income Mobility
Insper Institute of Education and Research（Insper教育与研究机构）；Institute for Economic Analysis（经济分析研究所）；IZA；IFAU；UCLS；Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（马德里卡洛斯三世大学经济学系）
Empirical distributions of wealth and income can be reproduced using simplified agent-based models of economic interactions, analogous to microscopic collisions of gas particles. Building upon these models of freely interacting agents, we explore the effect of a segregated economic network in which interactions are restricted to those between agents of similar wealth. Agents on a 2D lattice undergo kinetic exchanges with their nearest neighbours, while continuously switching places to minimize local wealth differences. A spatial concentration of wealth leads to a steady state with increased gl…
The distribution of household income is a central concern of modern economic policy due to its strong influence on life quality. Yet, non-expert audiences are unaware of the relationship between these two factors. To effectively communicate the effect of income inequality on the quality of life and among the strata, we have designed a novel technique for visualizing income distribution and inequality over time by using the U.S. household income microdata from the Current Population Survey. The result is a striking dynamic animation of income distribution over time, drawing public attention and…
In this study we arrive at a closed form expression for measuring vector assortativity in networks motivated by our use-case which is to observe patterns of social mobility in a society. Based on existing works on social mobility within economics literature, and social reproduction within sociology literature, we motivate the construction of an occupational network structure to observe mobility patterns. Basing on existing literature, over this structure, we define mobility as assortativity of occupations attributed by the representation of categories such as gender, geography or social groups…
To design, evaluate and tune policies for all-inclusive human development, the primary requisite is to assess the true state of affairs of the society. Statistical indices like GDP, Gini Coefficients have been developed to accomplish the evaluation of the socio-economic systems. They have remained prevalent in the conventional economic theories but little do they have in the offing regarding true well-being and development of humans. Human Development Index (HDI) and thereafter Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) has been the path changing composite-index having the focus on hum…
