We investigate the almost sure asymptotic properties of vector martingale transforms. Assuming some appropriate regularity conditions both on the increasing process and on the moments of the martingale, we prove that normalized moments of any even order converge in the almost sure cental limit theorem for martingales. A conjecture about almost sure upper bounds under wider hypotheses is formulated. The theoretical results are supported by examples borrowed from statistical applications, including linear autoregressive models and branching processes with immigration, for which new asymptotic properties are established on estimation and prediction errors.
In this paper we estimate the rest of the approximation of a stationary process by a martingale in terms of the projections of partial sums. Then, based on this estimate, we obtain almost sure approximation of partial sums by a martingale with stationary differences. The results are exploited to further investigate the central limit theorem and its invariance principle started at a point, as well as the law of the iterated logarithm via almost sure approximation with a Brownian motion, improving the results available in the literature. The conditions are well suited for a variety of examples; …
Consider a real-valued branching random walk in the boundary case. Using the techniques developed by Aïdékon and Shi [5], we give two integral tests which describe respectively the lower limits for the minimal position and the upper limits for the associated additive martingale.
Based on the multidimensional irreducible paving of De March & Touzi, we provide a multi-dimensional version of the quasi sure duality for the martingale optimal transport problem, thus extending the result of Beiglböck, Nutz & Touzi. Similar, we also prove a disintegration result which states a natural decomposition of the martingale optimal transport problem on the irreducible components, with pointwise duality verified on each component. As another contribution, we extend the martingale monotonicity principle to the present multi-dimensional setting. Our results hold in dimensions 1, 2, and…
Baez-Duarte (1971) and Gilat (1972) gave examples of martingales that converge in probability (and hence in distribution) but not almost surely. Here such a martingale is constructed with uniformly bounded increments, and a construction is provided of two martingales with the same marginals, one of which converges almost surely, while the other does not converge in probability.
We provide sufficient conditions which ensure that the intrinsic martingale in the supercritical branching random walk converges exponentially fast to its limit. The case of Galton-Watson processes is particularly included so that our results can be seen as a generalization of a result given in the classical treatise by Asmussen and Hering. As an auxiliary tool, we prove ultimate versions of two results concerning the exponential renewal measures which may be interesting on its own and which correct, generalize and simplify some earlier works.
A proof of the continuous martingale convergence theorem is provided. It relies on a classical martingale inequality and the almost sure convergence of a uniformly bounded non-negative super-martingale, after a truncation argument.
In this paper we survey the almost sure central limit theorem and its functional form (quenched) for stationary and ergodic processes. For additive functionals of a stationary and ergodic Markov chain these theorems are known under the terminology of central limit theorem and its functional form, started at a point. All these results have in common that they are obtained via a martingale approximation in the almost sure sense. We point out several applications of these results to classes of mixing sequences, shift processes, reversible Markov chains, Metropolis Hastings algorithms.
We prove existence of weak martingale solutions satisfying an almost sure version of the energy inequality and which constitute a (almost sure) Markov process.
We establish a second-order almost sure limit theorem for the minimal position in a one-dimensional super-critical branching random walk, and also prove a martingale convergence theorem which answers a question of Biggins and Kyprianou [9]. Our method applies furthermore to the study of directed polymers on a disordered tree. In particular, we give a rigorous proof of a phase transition phenomenon for the partition function (from the point of view of convergence in probability), already described by Derrida and Spohn [17]. Surprisingly, this phase transition phenomenon disappears in the sense …
We consider a random walk on $\R^d$ in a polynomially mixing random environment that is refreshed at each time step. We use a martingale approach to give a necessary and sufficient condition for the almost-sure functional central limit theorem to hold.
We develop a general approach of the almost sure central limit theorem for the quasi-continuous vectorial martingales and we release a quadratic extension of this theorem while specifying speeds of convergence. As an application of this result we study the problem of estimate the variance of a process with stationary and idependent increments in statistics.
We consider the additive martingale $W_t(λ)$ and the derivative martingale $\partial W_t(λ)$ for one-dimensional supercritical super-Brownian motions with general branching mechanism. In the critical case $λ=λ_0$, we prove that $\sqrt{t}W_t(λ_0)$ converges in probability to a positive limit, which is a constant multiple of the almost sure limit $\partial W_\infty(λ_0)$ of the derivative martingale $\partial W_t(λ_0)$. We also prove that, on the survival event, $\limsup_{t\to\infty}\sqrt{t}W_t(λ_0)=\infty$ almost surely.
In this paper, we give explicit rates in the central limit theorem and in the almost sure invariance principle for general R d-valued cocycles that appear in the study of the left random walk on linear groups. Our method of proof lies on a suitable martingale approximation and on a careful estimation of some coupling coefficients linked with the underlying Markov structure. Concerning the martingale part, the available results in the literature are not accurate enough to give almost optimal rates whether in the central limit theorem for the Wasserstein distance, or in the strong approximation.…
This paper is devoted to a direct martingale approach for P{ó}lya urn models asymptotic behaviour. A P{ó}lya process is said to be small when the ratio of its remplacement matrix eigenvalues is less than or equal to 1/2, otherwise it is called large. We find again some well-known results on the asymptotic behaviour for small and large urns processes. We also provide new almost sure properties for small urns processes.
We show that all local martingales with respect to the initially enlarged natural filtration of a vector of multivariate point processes can be weakly represented up to the minimum among the explosion times of the components. We also prove that a strong representation holds if any multivariate point process of the vector has almost surely infinite explosion time and discrete mark's space. Then we provide a condition under which the components of the multidimensional local martingale driving the strong representation are pairwise orthogonal.
The main result of the article reads: the distribution of a continuous starting from zero local martingale whose quadratic characteristic is almost surely absolutely continuous with respect to some non-random increasing continuous function is determined by the distribution of the quadratic characteristic. Functional limit theorem based on this characterization are proved.
Let $W_n, n\in\mn_{0}$ be an intrinsic martingale with almost sure limit $W$ in a supercritical branching random walk. We provide criteria for the $L_p$-convergence of the series $\sum_{n\ge 0} e^{an}(W-W_n)$ for $p>1$ and $a>0$. The result may be viewed as a statement about the exponential rate of convergence of $\me |W-W_n|^p$ to zero.
Martingale methods are used to study the almost everywhere convergence of general function series. Applications are given to ergodic series, which improves recent results of Fan \cite{FanETDS}, and to dilated series, including Davenport series, which completes results of Gaposhkin \cite{Gaposhkin67} (see also \cite{Gaposhkin68}). Application is also given to the almost everywhere convergence with respect to Riesz products of lacunary series.
In this paper, we obtain almost sure invariance principles with rate of order $n^{1/p}\log^βn$, $2< p\le 4$, for sums associated to a sequence of reverse martingale differences. Then, we apply those results to obtain similar conclusions in the context of some non-invertible dynamical systems. For instance we treat several classes of uniformly expanding maps of the interval (for possibly unbounded functions). A general result for $ϕ$-dependent sequences is obtained in the course.
Hörmann (2006) gave an extension of almost sure central limit theorem for bounded Lipschitz 1 function. In this paper, we show that his result of almost sure central limit theorem is also hold for any Lipschitz function under stronger conditions.
We consider a branching Brownian motion in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We prove that there exists a random subset $Θ$ of $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$ such that the limit of the derivative martingale exists simultaneously for all directions $θ\in Θ$ almost surely. This allows us to define a random measure on $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$ whose density is given by the derivative martingale. The proof is based on first moment arguments: we approximate the martingale of interest by a series of processes, which do not take into account the particles that travelled too far away. We show that these new processes are uniformly integr…
We consider Sinai's random walk in random environment. We prove that infinitely often (i.o.) the size of the concentration neighborhood of this random walk is almost surely bounded. As an application we get that i.o. the maximal distance between two favorite sites is almost surely bounded.
Fine regularity of stochastic processes is usually measured in a local way by local Hölder exponents and in a global way by fractal dimensions. Following a previous work of Adler, we connect these two concepts for multiparameter Gaussian random fields. More precisely, we prove that almost surely the Hausdorff dimensions of the range and the graph in any ball $B(t_0,ρ)$ are bounded from above using the local Hölder exponent at $t_0$. We define the deterministic local sub-exponent of Gaussian processes, which allows to obtain an almost sure lower bound for these dimensions. Moreover, the Hausdor…
We demonstrate a novel strong law of large numbers for branching processes, with a simple proof via measure-theoretic manipulations and spine theory. Roughly speaking, any sequence of events that eventually occurs almost surely for the spine entails the almost sure convergence of a certain sum over particles in the population.
In this paper, we study almost sure central limit theorems for sequences of functionals of general Gaussian fields. We apply our result to non-linear functions of stationary Gaussian sequences. We obtain almost sure central limit theorems for these non-linear functions when they converge in law to a normal distribution.
We study the almost sure convergence of randomly truncated stochastic algorithms. We present a new convergence theorem which extends the already known results by making vanish the classical condition on the noise terms. The aim of this work is to prove an almost sure convergence result of randomly truncated stochastic algorithms under easily verifiable conditions
We prove an almost sure central limit theorem on the Poisson space, which is perfectly tailored for stabilizing functionals emerging in stochastic geometry. As a consequence, we provide almost sure central limit theorems for $(i)$ the total edge length of the $k$-nearest neighbors random graph, $(ii)$ the clique count in random geometric graphs, $(iii)$ the volume of the set approximation via the Poisson-Voronoi tessellation.
We investigate an almost sure limit theorem (ASCLT) for sequences of random variables having the form of a ratio of two terms such that the numerator satisfies the ASCLT and the denominator is a positive term which converges almost surely to 1. This result leads to the ASCLT for least square estimators for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by fractional Brownian motion.
We consider a (random permutation model) binary search tree with n nodes and give asymptotics on the loglog scale for the height H_n and saturation level h_n of the tree as n\to\infty, both almost surely and in probability. We then consider the number F_n of particles at level H_n at time n, and show that F_n is unbounded almost surely.
In this paper we present a new correlation inequality and use it for proving an Almost Sure Local Limit Theorem for the so-called Dickman distribution. Several related results are also proved
In this paper, we give the central limit theorem and almost sure central limit theorem for products of some partial sums of independent identically distributed random variables.
In this paper we prove a criterion of convergence in distribution in Skorokhod space. We apply this criterion to some special Levy processes and obtain almost-sure versions of limit theorems for these processes.
Positive $T$-martingales were developed as a general framework that extends the positive measure-valued martingales and are meant to model intermittent turbulence. We extend their scope by allowing the martingale to take complex values. We focus on martingales constructed on the interval $T=[0,1]$ and replace random measures by random functions. We specify a large class of such martingales for which we provide a general sufficient condition for almost sure uniform convergence to a nontrivial limit. Such a limit yields new examples of naturally generated multifractal processes that may be of us…
This work is devoted to almost sure and moment exponential stability of regime-switching jump diffusions. The Lyapunov function method is used to derive sufficient conditions for stabilities for general nonlinear systems; which further helps to derive easily verifiable conditions for linear systems. For one-dimensional linear regime-switching jump diffusions, necessary and sufficient conditions for almost sure and $p$th moment exponential stabilities are presented. Several examples are provided for illustration.
In this paper, we formulate and prove new properties of conditional quantiles given one of the particular sigma-fields. Next, we use them to investigate almost sure asymptotic behavior of central order statistics which arise from strictly stationary processes. Specifically we provide a new version of a strong ergodic theorem for central order statistics.
We prove that the almost sure Lyapunov exponent λ(κ) of the continuous space Parabolic Anderson Model is bounded above by $c_u κ^{1/3}$ as $κ\downarrow0$ under mild regularity conditions. This bound of the same order of the previously proven lower bound, $λ(κ) \ge c_l κ^{1/3}$.
We analyze the empirical spectral distribution of random periodic band matrices with correlated entries. The correlation structure we study was first introduced in 2015 by Hochstättler, Kirsch and Warzel, who named their setup "almost uncorrelated" and showed convergence to the semicircle distribution in probability. We strengthen their results which turn out to be also valid almost surely. Moreover, we extend them to band matrices. Sufficient conditions for convergence to the semicircle distribution both in probability and almost surely are provided. In contrast to convergence in probability,…
We obtain a strong invariance principle for nonconventional sums and applying this result we derive for them a version of the law of iterated logarithm, as well as an almost sure central limit theorem. Among motivations for such results are their applications to multiple recurrence for stochastic processes and dynamical systems.
We study the minimum number of heaps required to sort a random sequence using a generalization of Istrate and Bonchis's algorithm (2015). In a previous paper, the authors proved that the expected number of heaps grows logarithmically. In this note, we improve on the previous result by establishing the almost-sure and L 1 convergence.
We study the almost sure convergence of the normalized columns in an infinite product of nonnegative matrices, and the almost sure rank one property of its limit points. Given a probability on the set of $2\times2$ nonnegative matrices, with finite support $\mathcal A=\{A(0),\dots,A(s-1)\}$, and assuming that at least one of the $A(k)$ is not diagonal, the normalized columns of the product matrix $P_n=A(ω_1)\dots A(ω_n)$ converge almost surely (for the product probability) with an exponential rate of convergence if and only if the Lyapunov exponents are almost surely distinct. If this conditio…
A martingale \int H.dZ is defined as having Dimension k if H has rank k almost surely, almost all t. Dimension can be used as a geometric invariant to classify and study martingales. We also define general Brownian motions in higher dimensions.
In this note we consider a branching Brownian motion (BBM) on $\mathbb{R}$ in which a particle at spatial position $y$ splits into two at rate $βy^2$, where $β>0$ is a constant. This is a critical breeding rate for BBM in the sense that the expected population size blows up in finite time while the population size remains finite, almost surely, for all time. We find an asymptotic for the almost sure rate of growth of the population.
In this work, we study the normal approximation and almost sure central limit theorems for some functionals of an independent sequence of Rademacher random variables. In particular, we provide a new chain rule that improves the one derived by Nourdin, Peccati and Reinert(2010) and then we deduce the bound on Wasserstein distance for normal approximation using the (discrete) Malliavin-Stein approach. Besides, we are able to give the almost sure central limit theorem for a sequence of random variables inside a fixed Rademacher chaos using the Ibragimov-Lifshits criterion.
Peng (2006) initiated a new kind of central limit theorem under sub-linear expectations. Song (2017) gave an estimate of the rate of convergence of Peng's central limit theorem. Based on these results, we establish a new kind of almost sure central limit theorem under sub-linear expectations in this paper, which is a quasi sure convergence version of Peng's central limit theorem. Moreover, this result is a natural extension of the classical almost sure central limit theorem to the case where the probability is no longer additive. Meanwhile, we prove a new kind of strong law of large numbers fo…
For the most general Polya urn schemes, we establish the almost sure convergence of its composition. The only requirement is that there are always enough balls of both colors, so that the extractions can be indefinitely pursued according to the specifications of the model. We also consider the method for determining the probability of fulfilling this requirement, as a function of the initial number of balls of each color.
We prove a strong invariance principle for the Kantorovich distance between the empiricaldistribution and the marginal distribution of stationary $α$-mixing sequences.
We study a one-dimensional diffusion process in a drifted Brownian potential. We characterize the upper functions of its hitting times in the sense of Paul Lévy, and determine the lower limits in terms of an iterated logarithm law.
We deal with random processes obtained from a homogeneous random process with independent increments by replacement of the time scale and by multiplication by a norming constant. We prove the convergence in distribution of these processes to Wiener process in Skorokhod space endowed by the topology of uniform convergence. An integral type almost sure version of this theorem is obtained.
We establish an almost sure scaling limit theorem for super-Brownian motion on $\mathbb{R}^d$ associated with the semi-linear equation $u_t = {1/2}Δu +βu-αu^2$, where $α$ and $β$ are positive constants. In this case, the spectral theoretical assumptions that required in Chen et al (2008) are not satisfied. An example is given to show that the main results also hold for some sub-domains in $\mathbb{R}^d$.
We consider a supercritical branching process $Z_n$ in a stationary and ergodic random environment $ξ=(ξ_n)_{n\ge0}$. Due to the martingale convergence theorem, it is known that the normalized population size $W_n=Z_n/ (\mathbb E (Z_n|ξ))$ converges almost surely to a random variable $W$. We prove that if $W$ is not concentrated at $0$ or $1$ then for almost every environment $ξ$ the law of $W$ conditioned on the environment $ξ$ is absolutely continuous with a possible atom at $0$. The result generalizes considerably the main result of \cite{kaplan:1974}, and of course it covers the well-known…
In this paper we study the almost sure central limit theorem started from a point for additive functionals of a stationary and ergodic Markov chain via a martingale approximation in the almost sure sense. As a consequence we derive the quenched CLT for additive functionals or reversible Markov chains.
In this paper, we study Gaussian multiplicative chaos in the critical case. We show that the so-called derivative martingale, introduced in the context of branching Brownian motions and branching random walks, converges almost surely (in all dimensions) to a random measure with full support. We also show that the limiting measure has no atom. In connection with the derivative martingale, we write explicit conjectures about the glassy phase of log-correlated Gaussian potentials and the relation with the asymptotic expansion of the maximum of log-correlated Gaussian random variables.
We consider the branching random walks in $d$-dimensional integer lattice with time--space i.i.d. offspring distributions. Then the normalization of the total population is a nonnegative martingale and it almost surely converges to a certain random variable. When $d\geq3$ and the fluctuation of environment satisfies a certain uniform square integrability then it is nondegenerate and we prove a central limit theorem for the density of the population in terms of almost sure convergence.
We prove an invariance principle (functional central limit theorem) for a vector-valued additive functional of a Markov chain for almost every starting point with respect to an ergodic equilibrium distribution. The hypothesis is a moment bound on the resolvent.
This work is devoted to the almost sure stabilization of adaptive control systems that involve an unknown Markov chain. The control system displays continuous dynamics represented by differential equations and discrete events given by a hidden Markov chain. Different from previous work on stabilization of adaptive controlled systems with a hidden Markov chain, where average criteria were considered, this work focuses on the almost sure stabilization or sample path stabilization of the underlying processes. Under simple conditions, it is shown that as long as the feedback controls have linear g…
We consider almost sure convergence of the SDE $dX_t=α_t d t + β_t d W_t$ under the existence of a $C^2$-Lyapunov function $F:\mathbb R^d \to \mathbb R$. More explicitly, we show that on the event that the process stays local we have almost sure convergence in the Lyapunov function $(F(X_t))$ as well as $\nabla F(X_t)\to 0$, if $|β_t|=\mathcal O( t^{-β})$ for a $β>1/2$. If, additionally, one assumes that $F$ is a Lojasiewicz function, we get almost sure convergence of the process itself, given that $|β_t|=\mathcal O(t^{-β})$ for a $β>1$. The assumptions are shown to be optimal in the sense tha…
