Mark Srednicki
We discuss how the apparently objective probabilities predicted by quantum mechanics can be treated in the framework of Bayesian probability theory, in which all probabilities are subjective. Our results are in accord with earlier work by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack, but our approach and emphasis are different. We also discuss the problem of choosing a noninformative prior for a density matrix.
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The concept of probability was prominent in the original foundations of quantum mechanics, and continues to be so today. Indeed, the controversies regarding objective and subjective interpretations of probability have again become active. I argue that, although both objective and subjective probabilities have domains of relevance in QM, their roles are quite distinct. Even where both are legitimate, the objective and subjective probabilities differ, both conceptually and numerically. There are quantum probabilities that have no useful subjective interpretations, and there are subjective probab…
The usual interpretational rule of quantum mechanics which states that outcomes do not occur when their weights are zero is changed so as to preclude outcomes with weights less than a small but positive value. With this "positive preclusion" rule, and in the absence of any notion of objective probability, Everett quantum mechanics has the explanatory power to account for the evolution of organisms with subjective expectations of probability that are in accord with the Born rule. Positive preclusion also allows for the derivation of a connection between weight and relative frequency in situatio…
Algorithmic probability has shown some promise in dealing with the probability problem in the Everett interpretation, since it provides an objective, single-case probability measure. Many find the Everettian cosmology to be overly extravagant, however, and algorithmic probability has also provided improved models of subjective probability and Bayesian reasoning. I attempt here to generalize algorithmic Everettianism to more Bayesian and subjectivist interpretations. I present a general framework for applying generative probability, of which algorithmic probability can be considered a special c…
Probabilities may be subjective or objective; we are concerned with both kinds of probability, and the relationship between them. The fundamental theory of objective probability is quantum mechanics: it is argued that neither Bohr's Copenhagen interpretation, nor the pilot-wave theory, nor stochastic state-reduction theories, give a satisfactory answer to the question of what objective probabilities are in quantum mechanics, or why they should satisfy the Born rule; nor do they give any reason why subjective probabilities should track objective ones. But it is shown that if probability only ar…
Quantum Probabilities Are Objective Degrees of Epistemic Justification
本文针对QBism将量子概率完全主观化而难以容纳科学客观性的问题，提出一种继承其优点的解释，主张量子概率是认知辩护的客观程度。
How can probabilities make sense in a deterministic many-worlds theory? We address two facets of this problem: why should rational agents assign subjective probabilities to branching events, and why should branching events happen with relative frequencies matching their objective probabilities. To address the first question, we generalise the Deutsch-Wallace theorem to a wide class of many-world theories, and show that the subjective probabilities are given by a norm that depends on the dynamics of the theory: the 2-norm in the usual Many-Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, and the 1-n…
We review the Consistent Amplitude approach to Quantum Theory and argue that quantum probabilities are explicitly Bayesian. In this approach amplitudes are tools for inference. They codify objective information about how complicated experimental setups are put together from simpler ones. Thus, probabilities may be partially subjective but the amplitudes are not.
The aim of this paper is to analyze the reconstructability of quantum mechanics from classical conditional probabilities representing measurement outcomes conditioned on measurement choices. We will investigate how the quantum mechanical representation of classical conditional probabilities is situated within the broader frame of noncommutative representations. To this goal, we adopt some parts of the quantum formalism and ask whether empirical data can constrain the rest of the representation to conform to quantum mechanics. We will show that as the set of empirical data grows conventional el…
This paper presents a novel explanation of the cause of quantum probabilities and the Born rule based on the intuitionistic interpretation of quantum mechanics where propositions obey constructive (intuitionistic) logic. The use of constructive logic makes it possible (through a replacement of the concept of truth with the concept of constructive probability) to abandon the law of excluded middle in the intuitionistic interpretation.
In this paper we analyze the existence of joint probabilities for the Bell-type and GHZ entangled states. We then propose the usage of nonmonotonic upper probabilities as a tool to derive consistent joint upper probabilities for the contextual hidden variables. Finally, we show that for the extreme example of no error, the GHZ state allows for the definition of a joint upper probability that is consistent with the strong correlations.
Wigner's marginal probability theory is revisited, and systematically applied to n-particle correlation measurements. A set of Bell inequalities whose corollaries are Hardy contradiction and its generalisation are derived with intuitive graphical analysis.
On the Completeness of Quantum Mechanics: Sources, Records and Probabilities
本文在特定源、探测器和统计条件下重构量子表示与玻恩概率，证明无需坍缩公设的代数封闭性，并指出悖论源于过程与记录、概率与结果的混淆，进而追问数学与源架构的深层起源。
In the Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics, probabilities--and thus quantum states--represent an agent's degrees of belief, rather than corresponding to objective properties of physical systems. In this paper we investigate the concept of certainty in quantum mechanics. Particularly, we show how the probability-1 predictions derived from pure quantum states highlight a fundamental difference between our Bayesian approach, on the one hand, and Copenhagen and similar interpretations on the other. We first review the main arguments for the general claim that probabilities always represent degr…
On probabilities in quantum mechanics
本文围绕 Khrennikov 与 Stacey、Schack 之间关于量子概率的辩论，先分析 QBist 学派的概率概念，再提出作者对 Born 公式的论证，并探讨其对量子理论基础与解释的影响。
Interpretation of Feynman formalism of quantum mechanics in terms of probabilities of paths
本文重新审视费曼路径积分，提出将跃迁概率视为路径概率之和的重新表述，并由此推导出散射的玻恩近似，从而无需玻恩假设即可实现基于粒子的量子力学诠释。
The problem of measurement in quantum mechanics is reanalyzed within a general, strictly probabilistic framework (without reduction postulate). Based on a novel comprehensive definition of measurement the natural emergence of objective events is demonstrated and their formal representation within quantum mechanics is obtained. In order to be objective an event is required to be observable or readable in at least two independent, mutually non-interfering ways with necessarily agreeing results. Consistency in spite of unrestricted validity of reversibility of the evolution or the superposition p…
Relativistic causality, namely, the impossibility of signaling at superluminal speeds, restricts the kinds of correlations which can occur between different parts of a composite physical system. Here we establish the basic restrictions which relativistic causality imposes on the joint probabilities involved in an experiment of the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm type. Quantum mechanics, on the other hand, places further restrictions beyond those required by general considerations like causality and consistency. We illustrate this fact by considering the sum of correlations involved in the CHSH in…
It is proved that in non-relativistic quantum mechanics (without spin) the transition probability may be described in terms of particle paths, every path having a (positive) probability. This leads to a stochastic hidden variables theory providing an intuitive picture of particle motion. The change of velocity at every time has a probability that depends on the potential over a large region, at a difference with the local action of classical dynamics. Thus the hidden variables theory is non-local like Bohm's, but not deterministic.
The density operator of a quantum state can be represented as a complex joint probability of any two observables whose eigenstates have non-zero mutual overlap. Transformations to a new basis set are then expressed in terms of complex conditional probabilities that describe the fundamental relation between precise statements about the three different observables. Since such transformations merely change the representation of the quantum state, these conditional probabilities provide a state-independent definition of the deterministic relation between the outcomes of different quantum measureme…
The probability `measure' for measurements at two consecutive moments of time is non-additive. These probabilities, on the other hand, may be determined by the limit of relative frequency of measured events, which are by nature additive. We demonstrate that there are only two ways to resolve this problem. The first solution places emphasis on the precise use of the concept of conditional probability for successive measurements. The physically correct conditional probabilities define additive probabilities for two-time measurements. These probabilities depend explicitly on the resolution of the…
Many of the conceptual problems students have in understanding quantum mechanics arise from the way probabilities are introduced in standard (textbook) quantum theory through the use of measurements. Introducing consistent microscopic probabilities in quantum theory requires setting up appropriate sample spaces taking proper account of quantum incompatibility. When this is done the Schrodinger equation can be used to calculate probabilities independent of whether a system is or is not being measured, and the results usually ascribed to wave function collapse are obtained in a less misleading w…
The dynamical equation of hybrid systems, being the combination of Schrödinger and Liouville equations, produces noncausal evolution when the initial state of interacting quantum and classical mechanical systems is as it is demanded in discussions regarding the problem of measurement. It is found that state of quantum mechanical system instantaneously collapses due to the non-negativity of probabilities.
It is often stated that quantum mechanics only makes statistical predictions and that a quantum state is described by the various probability distributions associated with it. Can we describe a quantum state completely in terms of probabilities and then use it to describe quantum dynamics? What is the origin of the probability distribution for a maximally specified quantum state? Is quantum mechanics `local' or is there an essential nonlocality (nonseparability) inherent in quantum mechanics? These questions are discussed in this paper. The decay of an unstable quantum state and the time depen…
I show that probabilities in quantum mechanics are a measure of belief in the presence of human ignorance, just like all other probabilities. The Born interpretation of the square of modulus of the wave function arises from the interaction of a quantum system with an observer, and probabilities will not arise unless the observer is unable to access all the information available in the system's wave function. Quantum mechanics generally does not permit all the information to be obtained, even in principle, just as in relativity information from outside the past light cone cannot be obtained. Bu…
Three extensions and reinterpretations of nonclassical probabilities are reviewed. (i) We propose to generalize the probability axiom of quantum mechanics to self-adjoint positive operators of trace one. Furthermore, we discuss the Cartesian and polar decomposition of arbitrary normal operators and the possibility to operationalize the corresponding observables. Thereby we review and emphasize the use of observables which maximally represent the context. (ii) In the second part, we discuss Pitowsky polytopes for automaton logic as well as for generalized urn models and evaluate methods to find…
We discuss some issues about probability in quantum mechanics, with particular emphasis on the GHZ theorem. We propose the usage of nonmonotonic upper probabilities as a tool to derive consistent joint upper probabilities for systems where only contextual hidden variables are possible.
Subjective nature of path information in quantum mechanics
本文通过三源实验探讨路径信息与干涉可见性之间的互补性，挑战经典直觉，证明即使有完整路径信息，也无法确定光子对的物理来源，揭示量子力学中路径信息的主观性。
Both the quantum mechanical and classical Bells experiment are within the focus of this paper. The fact that one measures different probabilities in both experiments is traced back to the superposition of two orthogonal but nonentangled substates in the quantum mechanical case. This superposition results in an interference term that can be splitted into two additional states representing a sink and a source of probabilities in the classical event space related to Bells experiment. As a consequence, a statistical operator can be related to the quantum mechanical Bells experiment that contains a…
Quantum mechanics may be formulated as {\it Sensible Quantum Mechanics} (SQM) so that it contains nothing probabilistic except conscious perceptions. Sets of these perceptions can be deterministically realized with measures given by expectation values of positive-operator-valued {\it awareness operators}. Ratios of the measures for these sets of perceptions can be interpreted as frequency-type probabilities for many actually existing sets. These probabilities generally cannot be given by the ordinary quantum ``probabilities'' for a single set of alternatives. {\it Probabilism}, or ascribing pr…
The predictions of quantum mechanics are probabilistic. Quantum probabilities are extracted using a postulate of the theory called the Born rule, the status of which is central to the "measurement problem" of quantum mechanics. Efforts to justify the Born rule from other physical principles, and thus elucidate the measurement process, have involved lengthy statistical or information-theoretic arguments. Here we show that Bohm's deterministic formulation of quantum mechanics allows the Born rule for measurements on a single system to be derived, without any statistical assumptions. We solve a s…
The transition from the quantum to the classical is governed by randomizing devices (RD), i.e., dynamical systems that are very sensitive to the environment. We show that, in the presence of RDs, the usual arguments based on the linearity of quantum mechanics that lead to the measurement problem do not apply. RDs are the source of probabilities in quantum mechanics. Hence, the reason for probabilities in quantum mechanics is the same as the reason for probabilities in other parts of physics, namely our ignorance of the state of the environment. This should not be confused with decoherence. The…
Two problems will be considered: the question of hidden parameters and the problem of Kolmogorovity of quantum probabilities. Both of them will be analyzed from the point of view of two distinct understandings of quantum mechanical probabilities. Our analysis will be focused, as a particular example, on the Aspect-type EPR experiment. It will be shown that the quantum mechanical probabilities appearing in this experiment can be consistently understood as conditional probabilities without any paradoxical consequences. Therefore, nothing implies in the Aspect experiment that quantum theory is in…
Assuming that quantum states, including pure states, represent subjective degrees of belief rather than objective properties of systems, the question of what other elements of the quantum formalism must also be taken as subjective is addressed. In particular, we ask this of the dynamical aspects of the formalism, such as Hamiltonians and unitary operators. Whilst some operations, such as the update maps corresponding to a complete projective measurement, must be subjective, the situation is not so clear in other cases. Here, it is argued that all trace preserving completely positive maps, incl…
Does Born Rule Imply Unitarity of Time Evolution in Quantum Mechanics?
探讨量子力学中玻恩规则与时间演化幺正性的关系，指出认为玻恩规则暗示幺正性的观点有缺陷，即便动力学非幺正，玻恩规则也能确保总概率守恒，适用于多种量子系统系综，还讨论了相关守恒及反对观点。
Quantum Transition Probabilities
本文将量子跃迁概率从纯态推广到混合态和量子效应之间，并刻画其对被测操作或仪器的依赖，在一般量子效应代数与希尔伯特空间表述下给出定义和实例。
Bounds on quantum probabilities and expectation values are derived for experimental setups associated with Bell-type inequalities. In analogy to the classical bounds, the quantum limits are experimentally testable and therefore serve as criteria for the validity of quantum mechanics.
Schlosshauer has advanced a theory of minimal no-collapse quantum mechanics for a decoherence-based subjective resolution of the measurement problem. The basic premise being that superposition states are maintained beyond the retinal apparatus, becoming correlated with neuronal arrays located in the occipital lobe of the brain. Decoherence for these neurons in a superposition of firing and resting, leads to an irreversible dynamical decoupling of the two branches, resulting in the emergence of a single subjective perception. Based upon prior retinal research, it is shown that his theory is unt…
Starting from the famous Pauli problem on the possibility to associate quantum states with probabilities, the formulation of quantum mechanics in which quantum states are described by fair probability distributions (tomograms, i.e. tomographic probabilities) is reviewed in a pedagogical style. The relation between the quantum state description and the classical state description is elucidated. The difference of those sets of tomograms is described by inequalities equivalent to a complete set of uncertainty relations for the quantum domain and to nonnegativity of probability density on phase sp…
Most scholars maintain that quantum mechanics (QM) is a contextual theory and that quantum probability does not allow an epistemic (ignorance) interpretation. By inquiring possible connections between contextuality and non-classical probabilities we show that a class T of theories can be selected in which probabilities are introduced as classical averages of Kolmogorovian probabilities over sets of (microscopic) contexts, which endows them with an epistemic interpretation. The conditions characterizing T are compatible with classical mechanics (CM), statistical mechanics (SM) and QM, hence we …
A subjective survey of stochastic models of quantum mechanics is given along with a discussion of some key radiative processes, the clues they offer, and the difficulties they pose for this program. An electromagnetic basis for deriving quantum mechanics is advocated, and various possibilities are considered. It is argued that only non-local or non-causal theories are likely to be a successful basis for such a derivation.
In Mod. Phys. Lett. A 9, 3119 (1994), one of us (R.D.S) investigated a formulation of quantum mechanics as a generalized measure theory. Quantum mechanics computes probabilities from the absolute squares of complex amplitudes, and the resulting interference violates the (Kolmogorov) sum rule expressing the additivity of probabilities of mutually exclusive events. However, there is a higher order sum rule that quantum mechanics does obey, involving the probabilities of three mutually exclusive possibilities. We could imagine a yet more general theory by assuming that it violates the next higher…
An expression is proposed for the quantum mechanical state of a pre- and post-selected ensemble, which is an ensemble determined by the final as well as the initial state of the quantum systems involved. It is shown that the probabilities calculated from the proposed state agree with previous expressions, for cases where they both apply. The same probabilities are found when they are calculated in the forward- or reverse-time directions. This work was prompted by several problems raised by Shimony recently in relation to the state, and time symmetry, of pre- and post-selected ensembles.
In a recent article [Phys. Rev. A 57, 1572 (1998)] Caticha has concluded that ``nonlinear variants of quantum mechanics are inconsistent.'' In this note we identify what it is that nonlinear quantum theories have been shown to be inconsistent with.
A factor-graph representation of quantum-mechanical probabilities is proposed. Unlike standard statistical models, the proposed representation uses auxiliary variables (state variables) that are not random variables.
The subjective and the objective aspects of probabilities are incorporated in a simple duality axiom inspired by observer participation in quantum theory. Transcending the classical notion of probabilities, it is proposed and demonstrated that all probabilities may be fundamentally quantum mechanical in the sense that they may all be derived from the corresponding amplitudes. The classical coin-toss and the quantum double slit interference experiments are discussed as illustrative prototype examples. Absence of multi-order quantum interference effects in multiple-slit experiments and the Exper…
We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorvian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case).
A quantum version of the Matching Pennies (MP) game is proposed that is played using an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm (EPR-Bohm) setting. We construct the quantum game without using the state vectors, while considering only the quantum mechanical joint probabilities relevant to the EPR-Bohm setting. We embed the classical game within the quantum game such that the classical MP game results when the quantum mechanical joint probabilities become factorizable. We report new Nash equilibria in the quantum MP game that emerge when the quantum mechanical joint probabilities maximally violate the Clau…
(A point-by-point response to a comment (quant-ph/0509130) on our paper (quant-ph/0509089) is added as Appendix C. We find the comment incorrect.) Einstein's criticism of the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics is an important part of his legacy. Although most physicists consider Einstein's criticism technically unfounded, we show that the Copenhagen interpretation is actually incorrect, since Born's probability explanation of the wave function is incorrect due to a false assumption on "continuous probabilities" in modern probability theory. "Continuous probability" means a "probabi…
The quantum mechanics of closed systems such as the universe is formulated using an extension of familiar probability theory that incorporates negative probabilities. Probabilities must be positive for sets of alternative histories that are the basis of fair settleable bets. However, in quantum mechanics there are sets of alternative histories that can be described but which cannot be the basis for fair settleable bets. Members of such sets can be assigned extended probabilities that are sometimes negative. A prescription for extended probabilities is introduced that assigns extended probabili…
The experimental setup of the self-referential quantum measurement, jovially known as the "quantum suicide" or the "quantum Russian roulette" is analyzed from the point of view of the Principal Principle of David Lewis. It is shown that the apparent violation of this principle--relating objective probabilities and subjective chance--in this type of thought experiment is just an illusion due to the usage of some terms and concepts ill-defined in the quantum context. We conclude that even in the case that Everett's (or some other "no-collapse") theory is a correct description of reality, we can …
The quantum mechanical measurement process is considered. A hypothetical concept of irrational dynamical variables is proposed. A possible definition of measurement is discussed along with a mathematical method to calculate experimental result probabilities. The postulates of quantum mechanics are analyzed and modified. Thought experiments and implications are considered.
Modal interpretations have the ambition to construe quantum mechanics as an objective, man-independent description of physical reality. Their second leading idea is probabilism: quantum mechanics does not completely fix physical reality but yields probabilities. In working out these ideas an important motif is to stay close to the standard formalism of quantum mechanics and to refrain from introducing new structure by hand. In this paper we explain how this programme can be made concrete. In particular, we show that the Born probability rule, and sets of definite-valued observables to which th…
The quantum-mechanical rule for probabilities, in its most general form of positive-operator valued measure (POVM), is shown to be a consequence of the environment-assisted invariance (envariance) idea suggested by Zurek [Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 120404 (2003)], being completed by Gleason's theorem. This provides also a method for derivation of the Born rule.
Quantum particles in a potential are described by classical statistical probabilities. We formulate a basic time evolution law for the probability distribution of classical position and momentum such that all known quantum phenomena follow, including interference or tunneling. The appropriate quantum observables for position and momentum contain a statistical part which reflects the roughness of the probability distribution. "Zwitters" realize a continuous interpolation between quantum and classical particles. Such objects may provide for an effective one-particle description of classical or q…
Any attempt to introduce probabilities into quantum mechanics faces difficulties due to the mathematical structure of Hilbert space, as reflected in Birkhoff and von Neumann's proposal for a quantum logic. The (consistent or decoherent) histories solution is provided by its single framework rule, an approach that includes conventional (Copenhagen) quantum theory as a special case. Mermin's Ithaca interpretation addresses the same problem by defining probabilities which make no reference to a sample space or event algebra (``correlations without correlata''). But this leads to severe conceptual…
We account for the origin of the laws of quantum probabilities in the de Broglie-Bohm (pilot wave) formulation of quantum theory by considering the property of ergodicity likely to characterise the dynamics of microscopic quantum systems.
We expand on a recent development by Hardy, in which quantum mechanics is derived from classical probability theory supplemented by a single new axiom, Hardy's Axiom 5. Our scenario involves a `pretend world' with a `pretend' Heisenberg who seeks to construct a dynamical theory of probabilities and is lead -- seemingly inevitably -- to the Principles of Quantum Mechanics.
An axiomatic formalism for a minimal irreversible quantum mechanics is introduced. It is shown that a quantum equilibrium and the decoherence phenomenon are consequences of the axioms and that Lyapunov variables, exponential survival probabilities, and a classisal conditional never-decreasing entropy can be defined.
A carefully written paper by A. Caticha [Phys. Rev. A57, 1572 (1998)] applies consistency arguments to derive the quantum mechanical rules for compounding probability amplitudes in much the same way as earlier work by the present author [J. Math. Phys. 29, 398 (1988) and Int. J. Theor. Phys. 27, 543 (1998)]. These works are examined together to find the minimal assumptions needed to obtain the most general results.
The subjective Bayesian interpretation of quantum mechanics (QBism) and Rovelli's relational interpretation of quantum mechanics (RQM) are both notable for embracing the radical idea that measurement outcomes correspond to events whose occurrence (or not) is relative to an observer. Here we provide a detailed study of their similarities and especially their differences.
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