The usual random walk on a group (homogeneous both in time and in space) is determined by a probability measure on the group. In a random walk with random transition probabilities this single measure is replaced with a stationary sequence of measures, so that the resulting (random) Markov chains are still space homogeneous, but no longer time homogeneous. We study various notions of measure theoretical boundaries associated with this model and establish an analogue of the Poisson formula for (random) bounded harmonic functions. Under natural conditions on transition probabilities we identify these boundaries for several classes of groups with hyperbolic properties and prove the boundary triviality (i.e., the absence of non-constant random bounded harmonic functions) for groups of subexponential growth, in particular, for nilpotent groups.
Associated to a random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$ and a positive integer $n$, there is a return probability of the random walk returning to the origin after $n$ steps. An interesting question is when the set of return probabilities uniquely determines the random walk. There are trivial situations where two different random walks have the same return probabilities. However, among random walks in which these situations do not occur, our main result states that the return probabilities do determine the random walk. As a corollary, we will obtain a result dealing with the representation theory of $\math…
We prove an estimate for the probability that a simple random walk in a simply connected subset A of Z^2 starting on the boundary exits A at another specified boundary point. The estimates are uniform over all domains of a given inradius. We apply these estimates to prove a conjecture of S. Fomin in 2001 concerning a relationship between crossing probabilities of loop-erased random walk and Brownian motion.
We prove that an integrated simple random walk, where random walk and integrated random walk are conditioned to return to zero, has asymptotic probability $n^{-1/2}$ to stay positive. This question is motivated by so-called random polymer models and proves a conjecture by Caravenna and Deuschel.
Let S_0=0,{S_n, n>0} be a random walk generated by a sequence of i.i.d. random variables X_1,X_2,... and let τ^{-} be the first descending ladder epoch. Assuming that the distribution of X_1 belongs to the domain of attraction of an α-stable law we study the asymptotic behavior of the local probabilities P(τ^{-}=n) and the conditional local probabilities P(S_n\in [x,x+y)|τ^{-}>n) for fixed y and x=x(n)\in (0,\infty).
The random walk in Dirichlet environment is a random walk in random environment where the transition probabilities are independent Dirichlet random variables. This random walk exhibits a property of statistical invariance by time-reversal which leads to several results. More precisely, a time-reversed random walk in Dirichlet environment (with null divergence) is also a random walk in random environment where the transition probabilities are independent Dirichlet random variables with different parameters. We show that on all graphs that satisfy a few weak assumptions, a random walk in random …
The infinite two-sided loop-erased random walk (LERW) is a measure on infinite self-avoiding walks that can be viewed as giving the law of the `middle part' of an infinite LERW loop going through 0 and infinity. In this note we derive expressions for transition probabilities for this model in dimensions two and up. In the plane, the formula can be further expressed in terms of a Laplacian with signed weights acting on certain discrete harmonic functions at the tips of the walk, and taking a determinant. The discrete harmonic functions are closely related to a discrete version of the complex sq…
We propose an approach to compute the boundary crossing probabilities for a class of diffusion processes which can be expressed as piecewise monotone (not necessarily one-to-one) functionals of a standard Brownian motion. This class includes many interesting processes in real applications, e.g., Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, growth processes and geometric Brownian motion with time dependent drift. This method applies to both one-sided and two-sided general nonlinear boundaries, which may be discontinuous. Using this approach explicit formulas for boundary crossing probabilities for certain nonlinear bou…
We study nearest-neighbors branching random walks started from a point at the interior of a hypercube. We show that the probability that the process escapes the hypercube is monotonically decreasing with respect to the distance of its starting point from the boundary. We derive as a consequence that at all times the number of particles at a site is monotonically decreasing with respect to its distance from the starting point.
We consider a discrete random walk on a diagonal lattice in two and three dimensions and obtain explicit solutions of absorption probabilities and probabilities of return in several domains. In three dimensions we consider both the cube and the dodecahedron variant. In two dimensions we obtain explicit formula in case of rotated barriers.
We give conditions for the exactness of Rokhlin endomorphisms, apply these to random walks on locally compact, second countable topological groups and obtain that the action on the Poisson boundary of an adapted random walk on such a group is weakly mixing.
In this paper we consider an irreducible random walk on the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}$ that is in the domain of normal attraction of a strictly stable process with index $α\in (1, 2)$ and obtain the asymptotic form of the distribution of the hitting time of the origin and that of the transition probability for the walk killed when it hits a finite set. The asymptotic forms obtained are valid uniformly in the natural domain of the space and time variables.
We prove for an arbitrary one-dimensional random walk with independent increments that the probability of crossing a level at a given time n has the order of square root of n. Moment or symmetry assumptions are not necessary. In removing symmetry the (sharp) inequality P(|X+Y| <= 1) < 2 P(|X-Y| <= 1) for independent identically distributed X,Y is used. In part II we shall discuss the connection of this result to 'polygonal recurrence' of higher-dimensional walks and some conjectures on directionally random walks in the sense of Mauldin, Monticino and v.Weizsaecker [5].
We consider a random walk with transition probabilities weakly dependent on an environment with a deterministic, but strongly chaotic, evolution. We prove that for almost all initial conditions of the environment the walk satisfies the CLT.
Motivated by applications to insurance mathematics, we prove some heavy-traffic limit theorems for processes which encompass the fractionally differentiated random walk as well as some FARIMA processes, when the innovations are in the domain of attraction of a nonGaussian stable distribution.
Motivated by applications to insurance mathematics, we prove some heavy-traffic limit theorems for process which encompass the fractionally integrated random walk as well as some FARIMA processes, when the innovations are in the domain of attraction of a nonGaussian stable distribution.
In part I (math.PR/0406392) we proved for an arbitrary one-dimensional random walk with independent increments that the probability of crossing a level at a given time n is of the maximal order square root of n. In higher dimensions we call a random walk 'polygonally recurrent' (resp. transient) if a.s. infinitely many (resp. finitely many) of the straight lines between two consecutive sites hit a given bounded set. The above estimate implies that three-dimensional random walks with independent components are polygonally transient. Similarly a directionally reinforced random walk on Z^3 in the…
We study the asymptotics of the probabilities of extreme slowdown events for transient one-dimensional excited random walks. That is, if $\{X_n\}_{n\geq 0}$ is a transient one-dimensional excited random walk and $T_n = \min\{ k: \, X_k = n\}$, we study the asymptotics of probabilities of the form $P(X_n \leq n^γ)$ and $P(T_{n^γ} \geq n )$ with $γ< 1$. We show that there is an interesting change in the rate of decay of these extreme slowdown probabilities when $γ< 1/2$.
Given a branching random walk $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ on $\mathbb{R}$, let $Z_n(A)$ be the number of particles located in interval $A$ at generation $n$. It is well known (e.g., \cite{biggins}) that under some mild conditions, $Z_n(\sqrt nA)/Z_n(\mathbb{R})$ converges a.s. to $ν(A)$ as $n\rightarrow\infty$, where $ν$ is the standard Gaussian measure. In this work, we investigate its large deviation probabilities under the condition that the step size or offspring law has heavy tail, i.e. the decay rate of $$\mathbb{P}(Z_n(\sqrt nA)/Z_n(\mathbb{R})>p)$$ as $n\rightarrow\infty$, where $p\in(ν(A),1)$. O…
Let $\{S_n, n\geq1\}$ be a random walk wih independent and identically distributed increments and let $\{g_n,n\geq1\}$ be a sequence of real numbers. Let $T_g$ denote the first time when $S_n$ leaves $(g_n,\infty)$. Assume that the random walk is oscillating and asymptotically stable, that is, there exists a sequence $\{c_n,n\geq1\}$ such that $S_n/c_n$ converges to a stable law. In this paper we determine the tail behaviour of $T_g$ for all oscillating asymptotically stable walks and all boundary sequences satisfying $g_n=o(c_n)$. Furthermore, we prove that the rescaled random walk conditione…
Given a branching random walk$\{Z_n\}_{n\geq0}$ on $\mathbb{R}$, let $Z_n([y,\infty))$ be the number of particles located in $[y,\infty)$ at generation $n$. It is known from \cite{Biggins1977} that under some mild conditions, $n^{-1}\log Z_n([θx^* n,\infty))$ converges a.s. to $\log m-I(θx^*)$, where $\log m-I(θx^*)$ is a positive constant. In this work, we investigate its lower deviation, in other words, the convergence rates of $$\mathbb{P}\left(Z_n([θx^* n,\infty))<e^{an}\right),$$ where $a\in[0,\log m-I(θx^*))$. Our results complete those in \cite{Mehmet}, \cite{Helower} and \cite{GWlower}…
We study the asymptotic tail probability of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for a random walk conditioned to return to zero, where the increments of the random walk have finite variance. Typically, the asymptotic tail behavior may be described through a regularly varying function with exponent -1/2, where the impact of the boundary is captured by the slowly varying function. Yet, the moving boundary may have a stronger effect when the tail is considered at a time close to the return point of the random walk bridge. In the latter case, a phase transition appears in the asymptotics…
Let {X_n,n\geq0} be a Markov chain on a general state space X with transition probability P and stationary probability π. Suppose an additive component S_n takes values in the real line R and is adjoined to the chain such that {(X_n,S_n),n\geq0} is a Markov random walk. In this paper, we prove a uniform Markov renewal theorem with an estimate on the rate of convergence. This result is applied to boundary crossing problems for {(X_n,S_n),n\geq0}. To be more precise, for given b\geq0, define the stopping time τ=τ(b)=inf{n:S_n>b}. When a drift μof the random walk S_n is 0, we derive a one-term Ed…
This article studies asymptotic approximations of ruin probabilities of multivariate random walks with heavy-tailed increments. Under our assumptions, the distributions of the increments are closely connected to multivariate subexponentiality and admit dependence between components. Keywords: subexponential distribution, ruin probability, multivariate random walk
Let $(Y_n)$ be a sequence of i.i.d. $\mathbb Z$-valued random variables with law $μ$. The reflected random walk $(X_n)$ is defined recursively by $X_0=x \in \mathbb N_0, X_{n+1}=|X_n+Y_{n+1}|$. Under mild hypotheses on the law $μ$, it is proved that, for any $ y \in \mathbb N_0$, as $n \to +\infty$, one gets $\mathbb P_x[X_n=y]\sim C_{x, y} R^{-n} n^{-3/2}$ when $\sum_{k\in \mathbb Z} kμ(k) >0$ and $\mathbb P_x[X_n=y]\sim C_{y} n^{-1/2}$ when $\sum_{k\in \mathbb Z} kμ(k) =0$, for some constants $R, C_{x, y}$ and $C_y >0$.
We study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that a weighted sum of centered i.i.d. random variables X_k does not exceed a constant barrier. For regular random walks, the results follow easily from classical fluctuation theory, while this theory does not carry over to weighted random walks, where essentially nothing seems to be known. First we discuss the case of a polynomial weight function and determine the rate of decay of the above probability for Gaussian X_k. This rate is shown to be universal over a larger class of distributions that obey suitable moment conditions. Finally we d…
We consider a nonlinear random walk which, in each time step, is free to choose its own transition probability within a neighborhood (w.r.t. Wasserstein distance) of the transition probability of a fixed Lévy process. In analogy to the classical framework we show that, when passing from discrete to continuous time via a scaling limit, this nonlinear random walk gives rise to a nonlinear semigroup. We explicitly compute the generator of this semigroup and corresponding PDE as a perturbation of the generator of the initial Lévy process.
Given a super-critical branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ started from the origin, let $Z\_n(\cdot)$ be the counting measure which counts the number of individuals at the $n$-th generation located in a given set. Under some mild conditions, it is known in \cite{B90} that for any interval $A\subset \mathbb{R}$, $\frac{Z\_n(\sqrt{n}A)}{Z\_n(\mathbb{R})}$ converges a.s. to $ν(A)$, where $ν$ is the standard Gaussian measure. In this work, we investigate the convergence rates of $$\mathbb{P}\left(\frac{Z\_n(\sqrt{n}A)}{Z\_n(\mathbb{R})}-ν(A)>Δ\right),$$ for $Δ\in (0, 1-ν(A))$, in both Schr{ö}der…
We establish and generalise several bounds for various random walk quantities including the mixing time and the maximum hitting time. Unlike previous analyses, our derivations are based on rather intuitive notions of local expansion properties which allows us to capture the progress the random walk makes through $t$-step probabilities. We apply our framework to dynamically changing graphs, where the set of vertices is fixed while the set of edges changes in each round. For random walks on dynamic connected graphs for which the stationary distribution does not change over time, we show that the…
We derive explicit formulas for probabilities of Brownian motion with jumps crossing linear or piecewise linear boundaries in any finite interval. We then use these formulas to approximate the boundary crossing probabilities for general nonlinear boundaries. The jump process can be any integer-valued process and jump sizes can have general distributions. Moreover, the jump sizes can be even correlated and/or non-identically distributed. The numerical algorithm is straightforward and easy to implement. Some numerical examples are presented.
We consider a class of multitype Galton-Watson branching processes with a countably infinite type set $\mathcal{X}_d$ whose mean progeny matrices have a block lower Hessenberg form. For these processes, the probability $\boldsymbol{q}(A)$ of extinction in subsets of types $A\subseteq \mathcal{X}_d$ may differ from the global extinction probability $\boldsymbol{q}$ and the partial extinction probability $\tilde{\boldsymbol{q}}$. After deriving partial and global extinction criteria, we develop conditions for $\boldsymbol{q}<\boldsymbol{q}(A)<\tilde{\boldsymbol{q}}$. We then present an iterative…
We investigate the asymptotical behaviour of the transition probabilities of the simple random walk on the 2-comb. In particular we obtain space-time uniform asymptotical estimates which show the lack of symmetry of this walk better than local limit estimates. Our results also point out the impossibility of getting Jones-type non-Gaussian estimates.
Spatially homogeneous random walks in $(\mathbb{Z}_{+})^{2}$ with non-zero jump probabilities at distance at most 1, with non-zero drift in the interior of the quadrant and absorbed when reaching the axes are studied. Absorption probabilities generating functions are obtained and the asymptotic of absorption probabilities along the axes is made explicit. The asymptotic of the Green functions is computed along all different infinite paths of states, in particular along those approaching the axes.
In this paper, we study a flower population in which self-reproduction is not permitted. Individuals are diploid, {that is, each cell contains two sets of chromosomes}, and {distylous, that is, two alleles, A and a, can be found at the considered locus S}. Pollen and ovules of flowers with the same genotype at locus S cannot mate. This prevents the pollen of a given flower to fecundate its {own} stigmata. Only genotypes AA and Aa can be maintained in the population, so that the latter can be described by a random walk in the positive quadrant whose components are the number of individuals of e…
Given a super-critical branching random walk on $\mathbb R$ started from the origin, let $M_n$ be the maximal position of individuals at the $n$-th generation. Under some mild conditions, it is known from \cite{A13} that as $n\rightarrow\infty$, $M_n-x^*n+\frac{3}{2θ^*}\log n$ converges in law for some suitable constants $x^*$ and $θ^*$. In this work, we investigate its moderate deviation, in other words, the convergence rates of $$\mathbb{P}\left(M_n\leq x^*n-\frac{3}{2θ^*}\log n-\ell_n\right),$$ for any positive sequence $(\ell_n)$ such that $\ell_n=O(n)$ and $\ell_n\uparrow\infty$. As a by-…
We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation probabilities, 2) the level crossing probabilities, and 3) the level crossing probabilities within a regenerative cycle. Exponential twisting based state-independent methods, which are effective in efficiently estimating these probabilities for light-tailed increments are not applicable when the increments are heavy-tailed. To address the latter case, more complex and …
The paper presents two results. The first one provides separate conditions for the upper and lower estimate of the distribution of the exit time from balls of a random walk on a weighted graph. The main result of the paper is that the lower estimate follows from the elliptic Harnack inequality. The second result is an off-diagonal lower bound for the transition probability of the random walk.
In this paper, we study (1,2) and (2,1) random walks in varying environments on the lattice of positive half line. We assume that the transition probabilities at site $n$ are asymptotically constants as $n\rightarrow\infty.$ For (1,2) random walk, we get some elaborate asymptotic behaviours of various escape probabilities and hitting probabilities of the walk. Such observations and some delicate analysis of continued fractions and the product of nonnegative matrices enable us to give criteria for finiteness of the number of cutpoints of both (1,2) and (2,1) random walks, which generalize E. Cs…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability of the rare event as its normalizing constant. Using the MCMC methodology a Markov chain is simulated, with that conditional distribution as its invariant distribution, and information about the normalizing constant is extracted from its trajectory. The algorithm is described in full generality and applied to the problem of computing the probability that a h…
For any countable group with infinite conjugacy classes we construct a family of forests on the group. For each of them there is a random walk on the group with the property that its sample paths almost surely converge to the geometric boundary of the forest in a way that resembles the simple random walks on trees. It allows us to identify the Poisson boundary of the random walk with the boundary of the forest and to show that the group action on the Poisson boundary is free (which, in particular, implies non-triviality of the Poisson boundary). As a consequence we obtain that any countable gr…
We answer positively a question of Kaimanovich and Vershik from 1979, showing that the final configuration of lamps for simple random walk on the lamplighter group over ${\Bbb Z}^d$ ($d \ge 3$) is the Poisson boundary. For $d \ge 5$, this had been shown earlier by Erschler (2011). We extend this to walks of more general types on more general groups.
We obtain expected number of arrivals, absorption probabilities and expected time before absorption for a discrete random walk on the integers with an infinite set of equidistant multiple function barriers
We study the large deviations of one-dimensional excited random walks. We prove a large deviation principle for both the hitting times and the position of the random walk and give a qualitative description of the respective rate functions. When the excited random walk is transient with positive speed $v_0$, then the large deviation rate function for the position of the excited random walk is zero on the interval $[0,v_0]$ and so probabilities such as $P(X_n < nv)$ for $v \in (0,v_0)$ decay subexponentially. We show that rate of decay for such slowdown probabilities is polynomial of the order $…
We consider a directed random walk on the backbone of the supercritical oriented percolation cluster in dimensions $d+1$ with $d \ge 3$ being the spatial dimension. For this random walk we prove an annealed local central limit theorem and a quenched local limit theorem. The latter shows that the quenched transition probabilities of the random walk converge to the annealed transition probabilities reweighted by a function of the medium centred at the target site. This function is the density of the unique measure which is invariant for the point of view of the particle, is absolutely continuous…
We study recurrence properties and the validity of the (weak) law of large numbers for (discrete time) processes which, in the simplest case, are obtained from simple symmetric random walk on $\Z$ by modifying the distribution of a step from a fresh point. If the process is denoted as $\{S_n\}_{n \ge 0}$, then the conditional distribution of $S_{n+1} - S_n$ given the past through time $n$ is the distribution of a simple random walk step, provided $S_n$ is at a point which has been visited already at least once during $[0,n-1]$. Thus in this case $P\{S_{n+1}-S_n = \pm 1|S_\ell, \ell \le n\} = 1…
For a given pcf self-similar fractal, a certain network (weighted graph) is constructed whose ideal boundary is (homeomorphic to) the fractal. This construction is the first representation of a connected self-similar fractal as the boundary of a reversible Markov chain (i.e., a simple random walk on a network). The boundary construction is effected using certain functions of finite energy which behave like bump functions on the boundary. The random walk is shown to converge to the boundary almost surely, with respect to the standard measure on its trajectory space.
A random walk in $Z_+^2$ spatially homogeneous in the interior, absorbed at the axes, starting from an arbitrary point $(i_0,j_0)$ and with step probabilities drawn on Figure 1 is considered. The trivariate generating function of probabilities that the random walk hits a given point $(i,j)\in Z_+^2$ at a given time $k\geq 0$ is made explicit. Probabilities of absorption at a given time $k$ and at a given axis are found, and their precise asymptotic is derived as the time $k\to\infty$. The equivalence of two typical ways of conditioning this random walk to never reach the axes is established. T…
Let $G$ be a finite tree with root $r$ and associate to the internal vertices of $G$ a collection of transition probabilities for a simple nondegenerate Markov chain. Embedd $G$ into a graph $G^\prime$ constructed by gluing finite linear chains of length at least 2 to the terminal vertices of $G.$ Then $G^\prime$ admits distinguished boundary layers and the transition probabilities associated to the internal vertices of $G$ can be augmented to define a simple nondegenerate Markov chain $X$ on the vertices of $G^\prime.$ We show that the transition probabilities of $X$ can be recovered from the…
