In this paper we consider an irreducible random walk on the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}$ that is in the domain of normal attraction of a strictly stable process with index $α\in (1, 2)$ and obtain the asymptotic form of the distribution of the hitting time of the origin and that of the transition probability for the walk killed when it hits a finite set. The asymptotic forms obtained are valid uniformly in the natural domain of the space and time variables.
For a continuous-time Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process, $X$, with immigration and culling, $0$ as an absorbing state, call $X^q$ the process that results from killing $X$ at rate $q\in (0,\infty)$, followed by stopping it on extinction or explosion. Then an explicit identification of the relevant harmonic functions of $X^q$ allows to determine the Laplace transforms (at argument $q$) of the first passage times downwards and of the explosion time for $X$. Strictly speaking, this is accomplished only when the killing rate $q$ is sufficiently large (but always when the branching mechanism is not su…
Let $X$ be a linear diffusion taking values in $(\ell,r)$ and consider the standard Euler scheme to compute an approximation to $\mathbb{E}[g(X_T)\mathbf{1}_{[T<ζ]}]$ for a given function $g$ and a deterministic $T$, where $ζ=\inf\{t\geq 0: X_t \notin (\ell,r)\}$. It is well-known since \cite{GobetKilled} that the presence of killing introduces a loss of accuracy and reduces the weak convergence rate to $1/\sqrt{N}$ with $N$ being the number of discretisatons. We introduce a drift-implicit Euler method to bring the convergence rate back to $1/N$, i.e. the optimal rate in the absence of killing…
Conditioning Markov processes to avoid a set is a classical problem that has been studied in many settings. In the present article we study the question if a Levy process can be conditioned to avoid an interval and, if so, the path behavior of the conditioned process. For Levy processes with finite second moments we show that conditioning is possible and identify the conditioned process as an h-transform of the original killed process. The h-transform is explicit in terms of successive overshoot distributions and is used to prove that the conditioned process diverges to plus infinity and minus…
We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb R^d$-valued Markov chain). The algorithm, which we coin Recurrent Multilevel Splitting (RMS), relies on the Markov chain's underlying recurrent structure, in combination with the Multilevel Splitting method. Extensive simulation experiments are performed, including experiments with a nonlinear stochastic model that has some characteristics of complex climate mode…
We consider a risk model with a counting process whose intensity is a Markovian shot-noise process, to resolve one of the disadvantages of the Cramér-Lundberg model, namely the constant jump intensity of the Poisson process. Due to this structure, we can apply the theory of PDMPs on a multivariate process containing the intensity and the reserve process, which allows us to identify a family of martingales. Eventually, we use change of measure techniques to derive an upper bound for the ruin probability in this model. Exploiting a recurrent structure of the shot-noise process, even the asymptot…
We consider a recurrent random walk of i.i.d. increments on the one-dimensional integer lattice and obtain a formula relating the hitting distribution of a half-line with the potential function, $a(x)$, of the random walk. Applying it, we derive an asymptotic estimate of $a(x)$ and thereby a criterion for $a(x)$ to be bounded on a half-line. The application is also made to estimate some hitting probabilities as well as to derive asymptotic behaviour for large times of the walk conditioned never to visit the origin.
In this paper, we study (1,2) and (2,1) random walks in varying environments on the lattice of positive half line. We assume that the transition probabilities at site $n$ are asymptotically constants as $n\rightarrow\infty.$ For (1,2) random walk, we get some elaborate asymptotic behaviours of various escape probabilities and hitting probabilities of the walk. Such observations and some delicate analysis of continued fractions and the product of nonnegative matrices enable us to give criteria for finiteness of the number of cutpoints of both (1,2) and (2,1) random walks, which generalize E. Cs…
We study the frog model on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with drift in dimension $d \geq 2$ and establish the existence of transient and recurrent regimes depending on the transition probabilities. We focus on a model in which the particles perform nearest neighbour random walks which are balanced in all but one direction. This gives a model with two parameters. We present conditions on the parameters for recurrence and transience, revealing interesting differences between dimension $d=2$ and dimension $d \geq 3$. Our proofs make use of (refined) couplings with branching random walks for the transience, and …
Moderate deviations for diffusions with Brownian potentials
我们提出了精确的中等偏差概率，在淬火和退火的设置，经常性的扩散过程与布朗势。我们的方法依赖于随机分析中的精细工具，包括Kotani引理和Lamperti的指数泛函表示。特别是，我们的结果淬火中等偏差是在最近的彗星和波波夫定理[Probab。Theory Related Fields 126（2003）571-609]，他研究了随机环境中Sinai的随机游动的相应问题。
We introduce the concept of asymptotic period for an irreducible and aperiodic, discrete-time Markov chain X on a countable state space, and develop the theory leading to its formal definition. The asymptotic period of X equals one - its period - if X is recurrent, but may be larger than one if X is transient; X is asymptotically aperiodic if its asymptotic period equals one. Some sufficient conditions for asymptotic aperiodicity are presented. The asymptotic period of a birth-death process on the nonnegative integers is studied in detail and shown to be equal to 1, 2 or infinity. Criteria for…
We show that $\mathbb{P} ( \ell_X(0,T] \leq 1)=(c_X+o(1))T^{-(1-H)}$, where $\ell_X$ is the local time measure at $0$ of any recurrent $H$-self-similar real-valued process $X$ with stationary increments that admits a sufficiently regular local time and $c_X$ is some constant depending only on $X$. A special case is the Gaussian setting, i.e. when the underlying process is fractional Brownian motion, in which our result settles a conjecture by Molchan [Commun. Math. Phys. 205, 97-111 (1999)] who obtained the upper bound $1-H$ on the decay exponent of $\mathbb{P} ( \ell_X(0,T] \leq 1)$. Our appr…
Consider a coin tossing experiment which consists of tossing one of two coins at a time, according to a renewal process. The first coin is fair and the second has probability $1/2 + θ$, $θ\in [-1/2,1/2]$, $θ$ unknown but fixed, of head. The biased coin is tossed at the renewal times of the process, and the fair one at all the other times. The main question about this experiment is whether or not it is possible to determine $θ$ almost surely as the number of tosses increases, given only the probabilities of the renewal process and the observed sequence of heads and tails. We will construct a co…
We consider the discrete time quantum random walks on a Sierpinski gasket. We study the hitting probability as the level of fractal goes to infinity in terms of their localization exponents $β_w$ , total variation exponents $δ_w$ and relative entropy exponents $η_w$ . We define and solve the amplitude Green functions recursively when the level of the fractal graph goes to infinity. We obtain exact recursive formulas for the amplitude Green functions, based on which the hitting probabilities and expectation of the first-passage time are calculated. Using the recursive formula with the aid of Mo…
Let $\hat m_{ij}$ be the hitting (mean first passage) time from state $i$ to state $j$ in an $n$-state ergodic homogeneous Markov chain with transition matrix $T$. Let $Γ$ be the weighted digraph whose vertex set coincides with the set of states of the Markov chain and arc weights are equal to the corresponding transition probabilities. It holds that $$ \hat m_{ij}= q_j^{-1}\cdot \begin{cases} f_{ij},&\text{if }\;\; i\ne j,\\ q, &\text{if }\;\; i=j, \end{cases} $$ where $f_{ij}$ is the total weight of 2-tree spanning converging forests in $Γ$ that have one tree containing $i$ and the other tre…
