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arXiv 2008.00439astro-ph.SR
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太阳活动、太阳辐照度和地面温度

Solar activity, solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature

Valentina Zharkova

摘要:

在这项研究中,我们概述了最近的进展,预测太阳活动的代理太阳背景磁场和探测大太阳活动周期约400年的大太阳极小期(GSM)。以前的GSM被称为蒙德极小期记录在1645年至1715年。蒙德极小期的陆地温度降低了1.0摄氏度,导致河流结冰,冬季和夏季寒冷。现代GSM始于2020年,将持续三个太阳周期,直到2053年。在此期间,有两个过程将影响太阳辐射的输入:太阳活动的减少和由于太阳惯性运动(SIM)而导致的太阳总辐照度的增加。对于后者的评估,本研究使用每日星历的太阳-地球(SE)的距离在两千年从600年至2600年显示显着减少的SE距离在一年的前6个月由0.005 AU在600年至1600年,并在1600年至2600年由0.01 AU以上,因此增加SE距离在下半年的一年。虽然,这些增长在第二个千年(1600年至2600年)并不完全对称,在此期间,最长的SE距离逐渐从2600年的6月21日转移到7月15日,而最短的则从12月21日转移到1月15日。这些距离的变化使得两千年来每年前六个月的太阳辐照度显著增加,而这并没有被1600年至2600年最后六个月的太阳辐射减少所完全抵消。这种不平衡造成了每年过剩的太阳辐射被地球大气和海洋环境处理,这可能导致地球温度升高。我们估计,GSM期间太阳活动的减少加上SIM施加的增加将导致地球温度在现代GSM期间降低到1700年的水平。

英文摘要:

In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activity using as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solar cycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previous GSM known as the Maunder minimum was recorded from 1645 to 1715. The terrestrial temperature during Maunder Minimum was reduced by up to 1.0C that led to freezing rivers, cold winters and summers. The modern GSM started in 2020 and will last for three solar cycles until 2053. During this GSM two processes will affect the input of solar radiation: a decrease of solar activity and an increase in total solar irradiance because of solar inertial motion (SIM). For evaluation of the latter this study uses daily ephemeris of the Sun-Earth (SE) distances in two millennia from 600 to 2600 showing significant decreases of SE distances in the first 6 months of a year by 0.005 au in 600 to 1600 and by more than 0.01 au in 1600 to 2600 with consequent increases of SE distances in the second halves of a year. Although, these increases are not fully symmetric in the second millennium (1600 to 2600), during which the longest SE distances are gradually shifted from 21 June to 15 July in 2600 while the shortest ones from 21 December to 15 January. These distance variations impose significant increases of solar irradiance in the first six months of each year in the two millennia, which are not fully offset by the solar radiation decreases in the last six months in millennium 1600 to 2600. This misbalance creates an annual surplus of solar radiation to be processed by the terrestrial atmosphere and ocean environments that can lead to an increase of terrestrial temperature. We estimate that decrease of solar activity during GSM combined with its increase imposed by SIM will lead to a reduction of terrestrial temperature during the modern GSM to the levels of 1700.

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