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arXiv 1601.05397astro-ph.SR
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修正的太阳黑子记录对太阳辐照度重建的影响

The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

G. Kopp, N. Krivova, J. Lean, C. J. Wu

摘要:

气候变化归因和研究需要可靠的太阳总辐照度(TSI)历史记录,以评估近几个世纪以来由于温室气体浓度增加而导致的太阳辐射能量入射地球的长期变化可能加剧(或缓解)更主要的变暖程度。我们调查新的太阳黑子指数和长期太阳观测(SILSO)太阳黑子数时间序列的TSI模型重建的潜在影响。在当代的TSI记录中,时间尺度上的变化超过一天左右,主要是由太阳黑子变暗和光斑变亮的相反影响所决定的。这两个表面磁功能,检索无论是从直接观测或从太阳活动代理,结合在TSI模式再现当前TSI观测记录。显示太阳表面磁活动的指数,特别是太阳黑子数记录,则可以重建历史TSI。因此,根据模型重建方法,对太阳黑子数记录的修订会影响百年时间尺度上TSI变化的幅度和时间结构。我们估计的影响,新的SILSO记录上两个广泛使用的TSI重建,即NRLTSI2和SATIRE模型。我们发现,SILSO记录在1885年之后对两个模型的影响都很小,但在TSI重建之前导致了更大幅度的太阳周期波动,这表明许多18世纪和19世纪的周期可能与当前现代极大期的振幅相似。TSI记录的基础上修订的太阳黑子数据并不表明蒙德最低TSI值的显着变化,并比较该时代的现在,我们发现只有非常小的电势差估计太阳对气候的贡献与这个新的太阳黑子记录。

英文摘要:

Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable the reconstruction of historical TSI. Revisions to the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial time scales according to the model reconstruction methodologies. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885 but leads to greater amplitude solar-cycle fluctuations in TSI reconstructions prior, suggesting many 18th and 19th century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and comparing that era to the present we find only very small potential differences in estimated solar contributions to climate with this new sunspot record.

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