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arXiv 1704.07652astro-ph.SR
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EMPIRE:太阳辐照度变化的一个可靠的经验重建

EMPIRE: A robust empirical reconstruction of solar irradiance variability

K. L. Yeo, N. A. Krivova, S. K. Solanki

摘要:

我们提出了一个新的经验模型的总的和光谱太阳辐照度(TSI和SSI)的变化,题为EMPIRE辐照度重建(EMPIRE)。与现有的经验模型一样,TSI和SSI变率由太阳活动指数的线性组合给出。在经验模式中,紫外线SSI变率通常通过将活动指数中的旋转变率与测量值中的旋转变率拟合来确定。迄今为止,这类模型依赖于普通最小二乘回归,而这种回归忽略了活动指数的不确定性。在较早的努力的进步,在活动指数的不确定性是占在EMPIRE的应用误差变量回归计划,使所得的紫外线SSI变异性更强大。结果与观测结果一致,并且前所未有地与其他建模方法一致,解决了现有经验模型与其他类型模型之间的长期争议。我们表明,早期的经验模型,忽略了活动指数的不确定性,低估了紫外线SSI的变化。重建TSI和可见光和IR SSI从EMPIRE也被证明是一致的观察。EMPIRE重建是气候研究的实用工具,是早期经验重建的一个更强大的替代方案。

英文摘要:

We present a new empirical model of total and spectral solar irradiance (TSI and SSI) variability entitled EMPirical Irradiance REconstruction (EMPIRE). As with existing empirical models, TSI and SSI variability is given by the linear combination of solar activity indices. In empirical models, UV SSI variability is usually determined by fitting the rotational variability in activity indices to that in measurements. Such models have to date relied on ordinary least squares regression, which ignores the uncertainty in the activity indices. In an advance from earlier efforts, the uncertainty in the activity indices is accounted for in EMPIRE by the application of an error-in-variables regression scheme, making the resultant UV SSI variability more robust. The result is consistent with observations and unprecedentedly, with that from other modelling approaches, resolving the long-standing controversy between existing empirical models and other types of models. We demonstrate that earlier empirical models, by neglecting the uncertainty in activity indices, underestimate UV SSI variability. The reconstruction of TSI and visible and IR SSI from EMPIRE is also shown to be consistent with observations. The EMPIRE reconstruction is of utility to climate studies as a more robust alternative to earlier empirical reconstructions.

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