The reconstruction and prediction of solar activity is one of the current problems in dynamo theory and global climate modeling. We estimate the Total Solar Irradiance for the next hundred years based on the Least Square Support Vector Machine. We found that the next secular solar minimum will occur between the years 2003 and 2063 with an average of 1365.4W/m2 close to the Dalton or Modern minima. We calculate the radiative forcing between the modern maximum and the 21st century minimum to be -0.1W/m2.
An inert sphere of a few meters diameter, placed in a special stable geosynchronous orbit in perpetuo, can be used for a variety of scientific experiments. Ground-based observations of such a sphere, "GeoSphere", can resolve very difficult problems in measuring the long-term solar irradiance. GeoSphere measurements will also help us understand the evolution of Earth's albedo and climate over at least the next century.
The total solar irradiance (TSI) varies on timescales of minute to centuries. On short timescales it varies due to the superposition of intensity fluctuations produced by turbulent convection and acoustic oscillations. On longer scale times, it changes due to photospheric magnetic activity, mainly because of the facular brightenings and dimmings caused by sunspots. While modern TSI variations have been monitored from space since 1970s, TSI variations over much longer periods can only be estimated using either historical observations of magnetic features, possibly supported by flux transport mo…
We analyze the long-term behavior of supergranule scale parameter, in active and quiet regions (AR, QR), using the Kodaikanal digitized data archive. This database provides century-long daily full disc observations of the Sun in Ca-II K wavelength. In this paper, we study the distributions of the supergranular scales, over the whole data duration, which show identical shape in these two regimes. We found that the AR mean scale values are always higher than that of the QR for every solar cycle. The mean scale values are highly correlated with the sunspot number cycle amplitude and also with tot…
Advances in understanding of the white light faculae measured at the Royal Greenwich Observatory from 1874 to 1976 suggest that they offer a more direct measure of solar brightening by small diameter photospheric magnetic flux tubes than do chromospheric proxies. Proxies such as the area of Ca K plages, the Mg index or the microwave flux include many dark photospheric structures as well as pores and sunspots. Our reconstruction of variation in total solar irradiance,TSI,based on the faculae indicates that the sun dimmed by almost 0.1 percent in the mid- twentieth century rather than brightenin…
Changes in solar irradiance and in its spectral distribution are among the main natural drivers of the climate on Earth. However, irradiance measurements are only available for less than four decades, while assessment of solar influence on Earth requires much longer records. The aim of this work is to provide the most up-to-date physics-based reconstruction of the solar total and spectral irradiance (TSI/SSI) over the last nine millennia. The concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in natural archives have been converted to decadally averaged sunspot numbers through a chain of p…
Reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) rely mainly on linear relations between TSI variation and indices of facular area. When these are extrapolated to the prolonged 15th - 17th century Spörer and Maunder solar activity minima, the estimated solar dimming is insufficient to explain the mid- millennial climate cooling of the Little Ice Age. We draw attention here to evidence that the relation departs from linearity at the lowest activity levels. Imaging photometry and radiometry indicate an increased TSI contribution per unit area from small network faculae by a factor of 2-4 compared…
Context. Total solar irradiance allows for the use of the Sun as a star for studying observations of stellar light curves from recent space missions. Aims. We aim to study how the mid-range periodicity observed in solar activity indices influences the total solar irradiance. Methods. We studied periodic variations of total solar irradiance based on SATIRE-S and SOHO/VIRGO data during solar cycles 23-24 on timescales of Rieger-type periodicity. Then we compared the power spectrum of oscillations in the total solar irradiance to those of sunspot and faculae data to determine their contributions.…
Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by …
Solar irradiance is considered one of the main natural factors affecting terrestrial climate, and its variations are included in most numerical models estimating the effects of natural versus anthropogenic factors for climate change. Solar wind causing geomagnetic disturbances is another solar activity agent whose role in climate change is not yet fully estimated but is a subject of intense research. For the purposes of climate modeling, it is essential to evaluate both the past and the future variations of solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity which are ultimately due to the variations of…
Algebraic Quantification of the Contribution of Active Regions to the Sun's Dipole Moment: Applications to Century-scale Polar Field Estimates and Solar Cycle Forecasting
First such observations were made in 1892 and since then various sites around the world have carried out regular observations, with Kodaikanal, Meudon, Mt Wilson, and Coimbra being some of the most prominent ones. By now, Ca II K observations from over 40 different sites allow an almost complete daily coverage of the last century. Ca II K images provide direct information on plage and network regions on the Sun and, through their connection to solar surface magnetic field, offer an excellent opportunity to study solar magnetism over more than a century. This makes them also extremely important…
Luminosity, which is the total amount of radiant energy emitted by an object, is one of the most critical quantities in astrophysics for characterizing stars. Equally important is the temporal evolution of a star's luminosity because of its intimate connection with the stellar energy budget, large-scale convective motion, and heat storage in the stellar interior. Here, we model the solar luminosity by extending a semi-empirical total solar irradiance (TSI) model that uses solar-surface magnetism to reconstruct solar irradiance over the entire 4π solid angle around the Sun. This model was const…
State of the art radial velocity (RV) exoplanet searches are limited by the effects of stellar magnetic activity. Magnetically active spots, plage, and network regions each have different impacts on the observed spectral lines, and therefore on the apparent stellar RV. Differentiating the relative coverage, or filling factors, of these active regions is thus necessary to differentiate between activity-driven RV signatures and Doppler shifts due to planetary orbits. In this work, we develop a technique to estimate feature-specific magnetic filling factors on stellar targets using only spectrosc…
Quantifying the effect of passband on observations in the Ca II K line
Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung（马克斯·普朗克太阳系统研究所）；Grupo de Estudios en Heliofísica de Mendoza, CONICET, Universidad de Mendoza（门多萨日物理研究组，阿根廷国家科学研究委员会，门多萨大学）；INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma（意大利国家天体物理研究所罗马天文台）；Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, CSIC（安达卢西亚天体物理研究所，西班牙高等科学研究委员会）
利用Sunrise III任务的高分辨率观测，通过模拟不同通带和空间分辨率，建立经验对比度-对比度关系（幂律形式），为历史与现代Ca II K观测构建一致的长时序太阳活动记录提供基础。
Extending the knowledge about the properties of solar cycles into the past is essential for understanding the solar dynamo. This paper aims at estimating areas of sunspots observed by Schwabe in 1825-1867 and at calculating the tilt angles of sunspot groups. The sunspot sizes in Schwabe's drawings are not to scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about 130,000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained, as well …
Records of observations of sunspots and auroras in pre-telescopic historical documents provide useful information about past solar activity both in long-term trends and short-term space weather events. In this study, we present the results of a comprehensive survey of the records of sunspots and aurora candidates in the Yuánshǐ and Míngshǐ, Chinese Official Histories spanning 1261-1368 and 1368-1644, based on continuous observations with well-formatted reportds conducted by contemporary professional astronomers. We then provide a brief comparison of these data with Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)…
More than 635 000 positional observations (mostly radiotechnical) of planets and spacecraft (1961-2010), have been used for estimating possible changes of the gravitation constant, the solar mass, and semi-major axes of planets, as well as the value of the astronomical unit, related to them. The analysis of the observations has been performed on the basis of the EPM2010 ephemerides of IAA RAS in post-newtonian approximation. The obtained results indicate on decrease in the heliocentric gravitation constant per year at the level $ \dot {GM_{Sun}}/GM_{Sun} = (-5.0 \pm 4.1) 10^{-14} (3σ).$ The po…
