Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019-2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about $1-1.5$ $Wm^{-2}$ closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350-400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of $1950\pm95$ years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at $~$2700 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at $~$3700. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by 2.5-3.0$^\circ$C.
The Sun's net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to gigayears. Direct measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy on timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. Variations of ~0.01 % over a few minutes are caused by the ever-present superposition of convection and oscillations with very large solar flares on rare occasion causing slightly-larger measureable signals. On timescales of days to weeks, changing photospheric magnetic activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1 % level. The 11…
The Sun is the primary source of energy for the Earth. The small changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) can affect our climate in the longer timescale. In the evolutionary timescale, the TSI varies by a large amount and hence its influence on the Earth's mean surface temperature (T$_{s}$) also increases significantly. We develop a mass-loss dependent analytical model of TSI in the evolutionary timescale and evaluated its influence on the T$_{s}$. We determined the numerical solution of TSI for the next 8.23 Gyrs to be used as an input to evaluate the T$_{s}$ which formulated based on a zero-d…
Context. There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate. One reason for this disagreement is the applied evolution of the quiet Sun brightness in the solar irradiance reconstruction models. This work addresses the role of the quiet Sun model choice and updated solar magnetic activity proxies on the solar forcing reconstruction. Aims. We aim to establish a plausible range of the…
The Sun has long been considered a constant star, to the extent that its total irradiance was termed the solar constant. It required radiometers in space to detect the small variations in solar irradiance on timescales of the solar rotation and the solar cycle. A part of the difficulty is that there are no other constant natural daytime sources to which the Sun's brightness can be compared. The discovery of solar irradiance variability rekindled a long-running discussion on how strongly the Sun affects our climate. A non-negligible influence is suggested by correlation studies between solar va…
We have analyzed the total solar irradiance (TSI) and the spectral solar irradiance as ultraviolet emission (UV) in the wavelength range 115-180 nm, observed with the instruments TIM and SOLSTICE within the framework of SORCE (The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) during the long solar minimum between the 23rd and 24th cycles. The wavelet analysis reveals an increase in the magnetic flux in the latitudinal zone of the sunspot activity, accompanied with an increase in the TSI and UV on the surface rotation timescales of solar activity complexes. In-phase coherent structures between the mi…
Luminosity, which is the total amount of radiant energy emitted by an object, is one of the most critical quantities in astrophysics for characterizing stars. Equally important is the temporal evolution of a star's luminosity because of its intimate connection with the stellar energy budget, large-scale convective motion, and heat storage in the stellar interior. Here, we model the solar luminosity by extending a semi-empirical total solar irradiance (TSI) model that uses solar-surface magnetism to reconstruct solar irradiance over the entire 4π solid angle around the Sun. This model was const…
One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e. on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e. days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger and Walton (2005, GRL, 32, 14109) showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar…
Context: The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth's climate. Aims: Full-disk continuum images and magnetograms are now available for three full solar cycles. We investigate how modelled TSI compares with direct observations by building a consistent modelled TSI dataset. The model, based only on changes in the photospheric magnetic flux can then be tested on rotational, cyclical and secular timescales. Methods: We use Kitt Peak and SoHO/MDI continuum images and magnetograms in the SATIRE-S model to reconstruct TSI over …
Total and spectral solar irradiance are key parameters in the assessment of solar influence on changes in the Earth's climate. We present a reconstruction of daily solar irradiance obtained using the SATIRE-S model spanning 1974 to 2013 based on full-disc observations from the KPVT, SoHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. SATIRE-S ascribes variation in solar irradiance on timescales greater than a day to photospheric magnetism. The solar spectrum is reconstructed from the apparent surface coverage of bright magnetic features and sunspots in the daily data using the modelled intensity spectra of these magnetic s…
Knowledge of solar irradiance variability is critical to Earth's climate models and understanding the solar influence on Earth's climate. Direct solar irradiance measurements are only available since 1978. Reconstructions of past variability typically rely on sunspot data. These provide only indirect information on the facular and network regions, which are decisive contributors to irradiance variability on timescales of the solar cycle and longer. Our ultimate goal is to reconstruct past solar irradiance variations using historical full-disc Ca II K observations to describe the facular contri…
We present a reconstruction of the spectral solar irradiance since 1700 using the SATIRE-T2 (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Telescope era version 2) model. This model uses as input magnetograms simulated with a surface flux transport model fed with semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups. We used statistical relationships between the properties of sunspot group emergence, such as the latitude, area, and tilt angle, and the sunspot cycle strength and phase to produce semi-synthetic sunspot group records starting in the year 1700. The semisynthetic records are fe…
A gap in the total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements between ACRIM-1 and ACRIM-2 led to the ongoing debate on the presence or not of a secular trend between the minima preceding cycles 22 (in 1986) and 23 (1996). It was recently proposed to use the SATIRE model of solar irradiance variations to bridge this gap. When doing this, it is important to use the appropriate SATIRE-based reconstruction, which we do here, employing a reconstruction based on magnetograms. The accuracy of this model on months to years timescales is significantly higher than that of a model developed for long-term recons…
The total solar irradiance (TSI) varies on timescales of minute to centuries. On short timescales it varies due to the superposition of intensity fluctuations produced by turbulent convection and acoustic oscillations. On longer scale times, it changes due to photospheric magnetic activity, mainly because of the facular brightenings and dimmings caused by sunspots. While modern TSI variations have been monitored from space since 1970s, TSI variations over much longer periods can only be estimated using either historical observations of magnetic features, possibly supported by flux transport mo…
Context. Total solar irradiance allows for the use of the Sun as a star for studying observations of stellar light curves from recent space missions. Aims. We aim to study how the mid-range periodicity observed in solar activity indices influences the total solar irradiance. Methods. We studied periodic variations of total solar irradiance based on SATIRE-S and SOHO/VIRGO data during solar cycles 23-24 on timescales of Rieger-type periodicity. Then we compared the power spectrum of oscillations in the total solar irradiance to those of sunspot and faculae data to determine their contributions.…
The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R (GOES-R) series of four satellites are the next generation NOAA GOES satellites. Once on orbit and commissioned, they are renamed GOES 16-19, making critical terrestrial and space weather measurements through 2035. GOES 16 and 17 are currently on orbit, having been launched in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The GOES-R satellites include the EUV and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS) instrument suite, which measures calibrated solar irradiance in 8 lines or bands between 25 and 285 nm with the Extreme Ultraviolet Sensors (EUVS) instrument. EXIS…
For the past six years, the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory has been monitoring changes in the Sun's extreme ultraviolet output over a range of timescales. Its primary function is to provide measurements of the solar spectral irradiance that is responsible for driving fluctuations in Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere. However, despite its modest spectral resolution and lack of spatial information, the EVE spectral range contains many lines and continua that have become invaluable for diagnosing the response of the lower solar atmosphere itself to an in…
Reconstruction of annual solar irradiance over the last three millennia
Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung（马克斯·普朗克太阳系统研究所）；Technical University of Braunschweig（布伦瑞克工业大学）；School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University（庆熙大学空间研究学院）；Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit and Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu（奥卢大学空间物理与天文学研究单元及索丹屈莱地球物理观测站）
In this paper we analyze the behavior of the daily Sunspot Number from the Sunspot Index Data Center (SIDC), the mean Magnetic Field strength from the National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak (NSO/KP) and Total Solar Irradiance means from Virgo/SoHO, in the context of the $q$--Triplet which emerges within nonextensive statistical mechanics. Distributions for the mean solar Magnetic Field show two different behaviors, with a $q$--Gaussian for scales of 1 to 16 days and a Gaussian for scales longer than 32 days. The latter corresponds to an equilibrium state. Distributions for Total Solar Irradiance…
Aims: We investigate how well modeled solar irradiances agree with measurements from the SORCE satellite, both for total solar irradiance and broken down into spectral regions on timescales of several years. Methods: We use the SATIRE model and compare modeled total solar irradiance (TSI) with TSI measurements between 2003 and 2009. Spectral solar irradiance over 200-1630nm is compared with the SIM instrument on SORCE between 2004 and 2009 during a period of decline from moderate activity to the recent solar minimum in 10 nm bands and for three spectral regions of significant interest: the UV …
The solar brightness varies on timescales from minutes to decades. A clear identification of the physical processes behind such variations is needed for developing and improving physics-based models of solar brightness variability and reconstructing solar brightness in the past. This is, in turn, important for better understanding the solar-terrestrial and solar-stellar connections. We estimate the relative contributions of the continuum, molecular, and atomic lines to the solar brightness variations on different timescales. Our approach is based on the assumption that variability of the solar…
Total solar irradiance (TSI) has been monitored from space since 1978. The measurements show a prominent variability in phase with the solar cycle, as well as fluctuations on timescales shorter than a few days. However, the measurements were done by multiple and usually relatively short-lived missions making the possible long-term trend in the TSI highly uncertain. While the variability in the UV irradiance is clearly in-phase with the solar cycle, the phase of the variability in the visible range has been debated. In this paper, we aim at getting an insight into the long-term trend of TSI sin…
We present a new model of total solar irradiance (TSI) based on magnetograms simulated with a surface flux transport model (SFTM) and the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions) model. Our model provides daily maps of the distribution of the photospheric field and the TSI starting from 1878. We first calculate the magnetic flux on the solar surface emerging in active and ephemeral regions. The evolution of the magnetic flux in active regions is computed using a surface flux transport model fed with the observed record of sunspot group areas and positions. The magnetic flux in ep…
Solar photospheric magnetic field plays a dominant role in the variability of total solar irradiance (TSI). The modulation of magnetic flux at six specific ranges on TSI is characterized for the first time. The daily flux values of magnetic field at four ranges are extracted from MDI/{\sl SOHO}, together with daily flux of active regions (MF$_{\text{ar}}$) and quiet regions (MF$_{\text{qr}}$); the first four ranges (MF$_{1-4}$) are: 1.5--2.9, 2.9--32.0, 32.0--42.7, and 42.7--380.1 ($\times 10^{18}$ Mx per element), respectively. Cross-correlograms show that MF$_4$, MF$_{\text{qr}}$, and MF$_{\…
Present-day semi-empirical models of solar irradiance (SI) variations employ spectra computed on one-dimensional atmosphere models (1D models) representative of various solar surface features to reconstruct SI changes measured on timescales greater than a day. Various recent studies have, however, pointed out that the spectra synthesized on 1D models do not reflect the radiative emission of the inhomogenous atmosphere revealed by high-resolution solar observations. We aimed to derive observational-based atmospheres from such observations and test their accuracy for SI estimates. We analysed sp…
Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to very active grand maxima. The ~400-year-long direct sunspot-number series is inhomogeneous in quality and too short to study robust parameters of long-term solar variability. The cosmogenic-isotope proxy extends the timescale to twelve millennia and provides crucial observational constraints of the long-term solar dynamo modulation. Here, we present a brief…
The variability of the spectral solar irradiance (SSI) over the course of the 11-year solar cycle is one of the manifestations of solar magnetic activity. There is a strong evidence that the SSI variability has an effect on the Earth's atmosphere. The faster rotation of the Sun in the past lead to a more vigorous action of solar dynamo and thus potentially to larger amplitude of the SSI variability on the timescale of the solar activity cycle. This could led to a stronger response of the Earth's atmosphere as well as other solar system planets' atmospheres to the solar activity cycle. We calcu…
Solar surface magnetic field seems to be able to explain variations in Total Solar Irradiance on timescales from hours to decades. Using magnetograms from spacecraft (MDI and HMI) and ground-based observatories (MWO and WSO) I build a composite dataset of the Total Line-of-Sight Unsigned Magnetic Flux over the solar disk stretching back to 1976, validated by excellent correlations with the solar microwave flux (F10.7) and the Sunspot Group Number. Direct measurements of TSI by space borne sensors have been carried out since late 1978. The early instruments were plagued by scattered light enter…
The Sun and Sun-like stars lose angular momentum to their magnetised stellar winds. This braking torque is coupled to the stellar magnetic field, such that changes in the strength and/or geometry of the field modifies the efficiency of this process. Since the space-age, we have been able to directly measure solar wind properties using in-situ spacecraft. Furthermore, indirect proxies such as sunspot number, geomagnetic indices, and cosmogenic radionuclides, constrain the variation of solar wind properties on centennial, and millennial timescales. We use near-Earth measurements of the solar win…
We analyze the effect of solar features on the variability of the solar irradiance in three different spectral ranges. Our study is based on two solar-cycles' worth of full-disk photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory, obtained with red, blue and Ca II K-line filters. For each image we measure the photometric sum, Sigma, which is the relative contribution of solar features to the disk-integrated intensity of the image. The photometric sums in the red and blue continuum, Sigma_r and Sigma_b, exhibit similar temporal patterns: they are negatively correlated with solar activity, with…
The chromospheric Lyman-alpha line of neutral hydrogen (\lya; 1216Å) is the strongest emission line in the solar spectrum. Fluctuations in \lya\ are known to drive changes in planetary atmospheres, although few instruments have had the ability to capture rapid \lya\ enhancements during solar flares. In this paper we describe flare-associated emissions via a statistical study of 477 M- and X-class flares as observed by the EUV Sensor on board the 15th Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, which has been monitoring the full-disk solar \lya\ irradiance on 10~s timescales over the cou…
Solar magnetic activity is expressed via variations of sunspots and active regions varying on different timescales. The most accepted is an 11-year period supposedly induced by the electromagnetic solar dynamo mechanism. There are also some shorter or longer timescales detected: the biennial cycle (2-2.7 years), Gleisberg cycle (80-100 years), and Hallstatt's cycle (2100-2300 years). Recently, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the observed solar background magnetic field (SBMF), another period of 330-380 years, or Grand Solar Cycle (GSC), was derived from the summary curve of two eig…
The solar brightness varies on timescales from minutes to decades. Determining the sources of such variations, often referred to as solar noise, is of importance for multiple reasons: a) it is the background that limits the detection of solar oscillations, b) variability in solar brightness is one of the drivers of the Earth's climate system, c) it is a prototype of stellar variability which is an important limiting factor for the detection of extra-solar planets. Here we show that recent progress in simulations and observations of the Sun makes it finally possible to pinpoint the source of th…
Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold through Solar Dynamo Simulations
Magnetic features on the surfaces of cool stars cause variations of their brightness. Such variations have been extensively studied for the Sun. Recent planet-hunting space telescopes allowed measuring brightness variations in hundred thousands of other stars. The new data posed the question of how typical is the Sun as a variable star. Putting solar variability into the stellar context suffers, however, from the bias of solar observations being made from its near-equatorial plane, whereas stars are observed at all possible inclinations. We model solar brightness variations at timescales from …
Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential progress has been achieved in both measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic dipole moment evolution. Here we improve the reconstruction of solar activity over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. We used records of the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope production and transport in Earth's atmosphere, and available geom…
In this Letter we report the detection of chromospheric 3-minute oscillations in disk-integrated EUV irradiance observations during a solar flare. A wavelet analysis of detrended Lyman-alpha (from GOES/EUVS) and Lyman continuum (from SDO/EVE) emission from the 2011 February 15 X-class flare (SOL2011-02-15T01:56) revealed a $\sim$3-minute period present during the flare's main phase. The formation temperature of this emission locates this radiation to the flare's chromospheric footpoints, and similar behaviour is found in the SDO/AIA 1600Å and 1700Å channels, which are dominated by chromospheri…
The Sun is a variable star whose magnetic activity and total irradiance vary on a timescale of approximately 11 years. The current activity minimum has attracted considerable interest because of its unusual duration and depth. This raises the question: what might be happening beneath the surface where the magnetic activity ultimately originates? The surface activity can be linked to the conditions in the solar interior by the observation and analysis of the frequencies of the Sun's natural seismic modes of oscillation - the p modes. These seismic frequencies respond to changes in activity and …
The "Other" Centuries-Long Record of Solar Magnetic Activity Cycles: Lessons From the Stars
Penn State（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Center for Solar-Stellar Connections, WDRC（太阳-恒星联系中心，WDRC）；ELTE Eötvös Loránd University（罗兰大学）；Nagoya University（名古屋大学）；Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University（地球环境研究所，名古屋大学）；Institute for Advanced Research, Nagoya University（先进研究院，名古屋大学）；RAL Space, Science and Technology Facilities Council（拉尔夫空间部，英国科学与技术设施委员会）；Riken Nishina Centre（理化学研究所仁科中心）
Magnetic activity in cool stars: manifestations and relevance to exoplanets
Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung（马克斯·普朗克太阳系统研究所）；Centro de Rádio Astronomia e Astrofísica Mackenzie, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie（麦肯齐射电天文学与天体物理学中心，麦肯齐长老会大学）；Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris Cité, CEA, CNRS, AIM（巴黎萨克雷大学，巴黎西岱大学，法国原子能和替代能源委员会，法国国家科学研究中心，天文信息与管理实验室）；Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP)（波茨坦莱布尼茨天体物理研究所）；HUN-REN Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Konkoly Observatory（匈牙利研究网络地球与天文学研究中心，孔科利天文台）；Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE, UBA-CONICET)（空间天体物理学与天体物理研究所）；The Catholic University of America（美国天主教大学）；The Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University（京都大学博雅教育研究中心）；Department of Physics, Kyoto University（京都大学物理学系）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）
