In this paper, we study the optimal multiple stopping problem under the filtration consistent nonlinear expectations. The reward is given by a set of random variables satisfying some appropriate assumptions rather than an RCLL process. We first construct the optimal stopping time for the single stopping problem, which is no longer given by the first hitting time of processes. We then prove by induction that the value function of the multiple stopping problem can be interpreted as the one for the single stopping problem associated with a new reward family, which allows us to construct the optimal multiple stopping times. If the reward family satisfies some strong regularity conditions, we show that the reward family and the value functions can be aggregated by some progressive processes. Hence, the optimal stopping times can be represented as hitting times.
We develop a theory of optimal stopping problems under G-expectation framework. We first define a new kind of random times, called G-stopping times, which is suitable for this problem. For the discrete time case with finite horizon, the value function is defined backwardly and we show that it is the smallest G-supermartingale dominating the payoff process and the optimal stopping time exists. Then we extend this result both to the infinite horizon and to the continuous time case. We also establish the relation between the value function and solution of reflected BSDE driven by G-Brownian motio…
In this paper we extend the definition of time conditional G-expectations $\mathbb{\hat{E}}_{t}[\cdot]$ to a larger domain on which the dynamical consistency still holds. In fact we can consistently define, by taking the limit, the time conditional expectations for each random variable $X$ which is the downward limit (resp. upward limit) of a monotone sequence $\{X_{i}\}$ in $L_{G}^{1}(Ω)$. To accomplish this procedure, some careful analysis is needed. Moreover, we give a suitable definition of stopping times and obtain the optional stopping theorem. We also provide some basic and interesting …
In this paper, we study reflected backward stochastic difference equations (RBSDEs for short) with finitely many states in discrete time. The general existence and uniqueness result, as well as comparison theorems for the solutions, are established under mild assumptions. The connections between RBSDEs and optimal stopping problems are also given. Then we apply the obtained results to explore optimal stopping problems under $g$-expectation. Finally, we study the pricing of American contingent claims in our context.
In this paper, we study the optimal multiple stopping problem under Knightian uncertainty both under discrete-time case and continuous-time case. The Knightian uncertainty is modeled by a single real-valued function g, which is the generator of a kind of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We show that the value function of the multiple stopping problem coincides with the one corresponding to a new reward sequence or process. For the discrete-time case, this problem can be solved by an induction method which is a straightforward generalization of the single stopping theory. For…
We develop a theory for solving continuous time optimal stopping problems for non-linear expectations. Our motivation is to consider problems in which the stopper uses risk measures to evaluate future rewards.
We analyze an optimal stopping problem with a series of inequality-type and equality-type expectation constraints in a general non-Markovian framework. We show that the optimal stopping problem with expectation constraints (OSEC) in an arbitrary probability setting is equivalent to the constrained problem in weak formulation (optimization over joint laws of stopping rules with Brownian motion and state dynamics on an enlarged canonical space) and thus the OSEC value. Using a martingale-problem formulation, we make an equivalent characterization of the probability classes in weak formulation, w…
In this paper, we solve the existence problem of optimal stopping problem under some kind of nonlinear expectation named g_Γexpectation which was recently introduced in Peng, S.G. and Xu, M.Y. [8]. Our method based on our preceding work on the continuous property of g_Γsolution. Generally, the strict comparison theorem does not hold under such nonlinear expectations any more, but we can still modify the classical method to find out an optimal stopping time via continuous property. The mainly used theory in our paper is the monotonic limit theorem of BSDE and nonlinear decomposition theorem of …
We analyze an optimal stopping problem with random maturity under a nonlinear expectation with respect to a weakly compact set of mutually singular probabilities $\mathcal{P}$. The maturity is specified as the hitting time to level $0$ of some continuous index process at which the payoff process is even allowed to have a positive jump. When $\mathcal{P}$ is a collection of semimartingale measures, the optimal stopping problem can be viewed as a {\it discretionary} stopping problem for a player who can influence both drift and volatility of the dynamic of underlying stochastic flow.
Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be independent identically distributed nonnegative random variables. Wald's identity states that the random sum $S_T:=X_1+\cdots+X_T$ has expectation $E(T)) E(X_1)$ provided $T$ is a stopping time. We prove here that for any $1<α\leq 2$, if $T$ is an arbitrary nonnegative random variable, then $S_T$ has finite expectation provided that $X_1$ has finite $α$-moment and $T$ has finite $1/(α-1)$-moment. We also prove a variant in which $T$ is assumed to have a finite exponential moment. These moment conditions are sharp in the sense that for any i.i.d.\ sequence $X_i$ violatin…
Let $X$ be a bounded càdlàg process with positive jumps defined on the canonical space of continuous paths. We consider the problem of optimal stopping the process $X$ under a nonlinear expectation operator $\cE$ defined as the supremum of expectations over a weakly compact family of nondominated measures. We introduce the corresponding nonlinear Snell envelope. Our main objective is to extend the Snell envelope characterization to the present context. Namely, we prove that the nonlinear Snell envelope is an $\cE-$supermartingale, and an $\cE-$martingale up to its first hitting time of the obs…
We provide general conditions ensuring that the value functions of some nonlinear stopping problems with finite horizon converge to the value functions of the corresponding problems with infinite horizon. Our result can be formulated as result on stability, with respect to time horizon, of nonlinear $f$-expectations. We also study the rate of convergence. Many examples are given to illustrate our results. They include the analysis of time asymptotics of the fair prices of American options in a multidimensional exponential Lévy model.
We study the existence of optimal actions in a zero-sum game $\inf_τ\sup_PE^P[X_τ]$ between a stopper and a controller choosing a probability measure. This includes the optimal stopping problem $\inf_τ\mathcal{E}(X_τ)$ for a class of sublinear expectations $\mathcal{E}(\cdot)$ such as the $G$-expectation. We show that the game has a value. Moreover, exploiting the theory of sublinear expectations, we define a nonlinear Snell envelope $Y$ and prove that the first hitting time $\inf\{t:Y_t=X_t\}$ is an optimal stopping time. The existence of a saddle point is shown under a compactness condition.…
We consider the optimal stopping problem with non-linear $f$-expectation (induced by a BSDE) without making any regularity assumptions on the reward process $ξ$. and with general filtration. We show that the value family can be aggregated by an optional process $Y$. We characterize the process $Y$ as the $\mathcal{E}^f$-Snell envelope of $ξ$. We also establish an infinitesimal characterization of the value process $Y$ in terms of a Reflected BSDE with $ξ$ as the obstacle. To do this, we first establish a comparison theorem for irregular RBSDEs. We give an application to the pricing of American…
We consider a class of discretionary stopping problems within the $G$-framework. We first establish the well-definedness of the stopping problem under the $G$-expectation, by showing the quasi-continuity of the stopped process. We then prove a verification theorem for $G$-optimal stopping problem. One corollary is a direct proof for the well-known fact that the $G$-optimal stopping problem is the same as the classical optimal stopping problem with appropriate parameters, when the payoff function is concave or convex.
The main objective of this paper is the construction of the solution of an impulsive stochastic differential equation, subject to control conditions in the pulse-times and give sufficient conditions for them to be random variables with finite expectation. Such equations are useful in modeling diverse phenomena as biological control and pressure regulating mechanisms. The article ends with an application in fishery.
Under the framework of G-expectation and G-Brownian motion, we introduce Itô's integral for stochastic processes without assuming quasi-continuity. Then we can obtain Itô's integral on stopping time interval. This new formulation permits us to obtain Itô's formula for a general C^{1,2}-function, which essentially generalizes the previous results of Peng [20, 21, 22, 23, 24] as well as those of Gao [8] and Zhang et al. [26].
We first study an optimal stopping problem in which a player (an agent) uses a discrete stopping time in order to stop optimally a payoff process whose risk is evaluated by a (non-linear) $g$-expectation. We then consider a non-zero-sum game on discrete stopping times with two agents who aim at minimizing their respective risks. The payoffs of the agents are assessed by g-expectations (with possibly different drivers for the different players). By using the results of the first part, combined with some ideas of S. Hamad{è}ne and J. Zhang, we construct a Nash equilibrium point of this game by a…
We give a theory of sublinear expectations and martingales in discrete time. Without assuming the existence of a dominating probability measure, we derive the extensions of classical results on uniform integrability, optional stopping of martingales, and martingale convergence. We also give a theory of BSDEs in the context of sublinear expectations and a finite-state space, including general existence and comparison results.
We study the optimal stopping time problem $v(S)={\rm ess}\sup_{θ\geq S} E[ϕ(θ)|\mathcal {F}_S]$, for any stopping time $S$, where the reward is given by a family $(ϕ(θ),θ\in\mathcal{T}_0)$ \emph{of non negative random variables} indexed by stopping times. We solve the problem under weak assumptions in terms of integrability and regularity of the reward family. More precisely, we only suppose $v(0) < + \infty$ and $ (ϕ(θ),θ\in \mathcal{T}_0)$ upper semicontinuous along stopping times in expectation. We show the existence of an optimal stopping time and obtain a characterization of the minimal …
In the first part of this paper, we study RBSDEs in the case where the filtration is not quasi-left continuous and the lower obstacle is given by a predictable process. We prove the existence and uniqueness by using some results of optimal stopping theory in the predictable setting, some tools from the general theory of processes as the Merten's decomposition of predictable strong supermartingale. In the second part we introduce an optimal stopping problem indexed by predictable stopping times with the non linear predictable $g$ expectation induced by an appropriate BSDE. We establish some use…
In this paper, we address the stochastic representation problem in discrete time under (non-linear) g-expectation. We establish existence and uniqueness of the solution, as well as a characterization of the solution. As an application, we investigate a new approach to the optimal stopping problem under g-expectation and the related pricing of American options under Knightian uncertainty. Our results are also applied to a (non-linear) Skorokhod-type obstacle problem.
Solving optimal stopping problems by backward induction in high dimensions is often very complex since the computation of conditional expectations is required. Typically, such computations are based on regression, a method that suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to establish dimension reduction schemes for large-scale asset price models and to solve related optimal stopping problems (e.g. Bermudan option pricing) in the reduced setting, where regression is feasible. The proposed algorithm is based on an error measure between linear stochastic di…
In this paper we study optimal stopping problems with respect to distorted expectations of the form \begin{eqnarray*} \mathcal{E}(X)=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} x\,dG(F_X(x)), \end{eqnarray*} where $F_X$ is the distribution function of $X$ and $G$ is a convex distribution function on $[0,1].$ As a matter of fact, except for $G$ being the identity on $[0,1],$ dynamic versions of $\mathcal{E}(X)$ do not have the so-called time-consistency property necessary for the dynamic programming approach. So the standard approaches are not applicable to optimal stopping under $\mathcal{E}(X).$ In this paper, w…
We consider optimal stopping problems, in which a sequence of independent random variables is drawn from a known continuous density. The objective of such problems is to find a procedure which maximizes the expected reward; this is often known as the "full information" problem. In this analysis, we obtain asymptotic expressions for the expectation and variance of the optimal stopping time as the number of drawn variables becomes large. In the case of distributions with infinite upper bound, the asymptotic behaviour of these statistics depends solely on the algebraic power of the probability di…
In this paper we introduce a notion of tightness for a family of nonlinear expectations and show that the tightness can be applied to obtain weak compactness in a framework of nonlinear expectation space. This criterion is very useful for obtaining the weak convergence for a sequence of nonlinear expectations, which is a equivalent to the so-called convergence in distribution, or in law for a sequence of random variables in a nonlinear expectation space. We use the above result to give a new proof to the central limit theorem under a sublinear expectation space. The method can be also applied …
In this paper, we consider the product space for two processes with independent increments under nonlinear expectations. By introducing a discretization method, we construct a nonlinear expectation under which the given two processes can be seen as a new process with independent increments.
We study optimal stopping problems related to the pricing of perpetual American options in an extension of the Black-Merton-Scholes model in which the dividend and volatility rates of the underlying risky asset depend on the running values of its maximum and maximum drawdown. The optimal stopping times of exercise are shown to be the first times at which the price of the underlying asset exits some regions restricted by certain boundaries depending on the running values of the associated maximum and maximum drawdown processes. We obtain closed-form solutions to the equivalent free-boundary pro…
In this paper, we consider filtration-consistent nonlinear expectations which satisfy a general domination condition (dominated by ${\cal{E}}^ϕ$). We show that this kind of nonlinear expectations can be represented by $g$-expectations defined by the solutions of backward stochastic differential equations, whose generators are independent on $y$ and uniformly continuous in $z$.
In this paper we extend the notion of ``filtration-consistent nonlinear expectation" (or "${\cal F}$-consistent nonlinear expectation") to the case when it is allowed to be dominated by a $g$-expectation that may have a quadratic growth. We show that for such a nonlinear expectation many fundamental properties of a martingale can still make sense, including the Doob-Meyer type decomposition theorem and the optional sampling theorem. More importantly, we show that any quadratic ${\cal F}$-consistent nonlinear expectation with a certain domination property must be a quadratic $g$-expectation. Th…
We provide extension procedures for nonlinear expectations to the space of all bounded measurable functions. We first discuss a maximal extension for convex expectations which have a representation in terms of finitely additive measures. One of the main results of this paper is an extension procedure for convex expectations which are continuous from above and therefore admit a representation in terms of countably additive measures. This can be seen as a nonlinear version of the Daniell-Stone theorem. From this, we deduce a robust Kolmogorov extension theorem which is then used to extend nonlin…
Given a stochastic state process $(X_t)_t$ and a real-valued submartingale cost process $(S_t)_t$, we characterize optimal stopping times $τ$ that minimize the expectation of $S_τ$ while realizing given initial and target distributions $μ$ and $ν$, i.e., $X_0\sim μ$ and $X_τ\sim ν$. A dual optimization problem is considered and shown to be attained under suitable conditions. The optimal solution of the dual problem then provides a contact set, which characterizes the location where optimal stopping can occur. The optimal stopping time is uniquely determined as the first hitting time of this co…
In this book, we introduce a new approach of sublinear expectation to deal with the problem of probability and distribution model uncertainty. We a new type of (robust) normal distributions and the related central limit theorem under sublinear expectation. We also present a new type of Brownian motion under sublinear expectations and the related stochastic calculus of Ito's type. The results provide robust tools for the problem of probability model uncertainty arising from financial risk management, statistics and stochastic controls.
We formulate and solve the martingale problem in a nonlinear expectation space. Unlike the classical work of Stroock and Varadhan (1969) where the linear operator in the associated PDE is naturally defined from the corresponding diffusion process, the main difficulty in the nonlinear setting is to identify an appropriate class of nonlinear operators for the associated fully nonlinear PDEs. Based on the analysis of the martingale problem, we introduce the notion of weak solution for stochastic differential equations under nonlinear expectations and obtain an existence theorem under the Hölder c…
In this paper, generalizing the definition of G-convex functions defined by Peng [9] during the construction of G-expectations and related properties, we define a group of G-convex functions based on the Backward Stochastic Differential Equations driven by G- Brownian motions.
In this paper, we consider continuous-time Markov chains with a finite state space under nonlinear expectations. We define so-called Q-operators as an extension of Q-matrices or rate matrices to a nonlinear setup, where the nonlinearity is due to model uncertainty. The main result gives a full characterization of convex Q-operators in terms of a positive maximum principle, a dual representation by means of Q-matrices, continuous-time Markov chains under convex expectations and nonlinear ordinary differential equations. This extends a classical characterization of generators of Markov chains to…
We develop a notion of nonlinear expectation --G-expectation-- generated by a nonlinear heat equation with infinitesimal generator G. We first study multi-dimensional G-normal distributions. With this nonlinear distribution we can introduce our G-expectation under which the canonical process is a multi dimensional G-Brownian motion. We then establish the related stochastic calculus, especially stochastic integrals of Ito's type with respect to our G-Brownian motion and derive the related Ito's formula. We have also obtained the existence and uniqueness of stochastic differential equation under…
The paper studies a class of multidimensional optimal stopping problems with infinite horizon for linear switching diffusions. There are two main novelties in the optimal problems considered: the underlying stochastic process has discontinuous paths and the cost function is not necessarily integrable on the entire time horizon, where the latter is often a key assumption in classical optimal stopping theory for diffusions, cf. [22, Corollary 2.9]. Under relatively mild conditions, we show, for the class of multidimensional optimal stopping problems under consideration, that the first entry time…
We introduce a notion of nonlinear expectation --G--expectation-- generated by a nonlinear heat equation with infinitesimal generator G. We first discuss the notion of G-standard normal distribution. With this nonlinear distribution we can introduce our G-expectation under which the canonical process is a G--Brownian motion. We then establish the related stochastic calculus, especially stochastic integrals of Ito's type with respect to our G--Brownian motion and derive the related Ito's formula. We have also give the existence and uniqueness of stochastic differential equation under our G-expe…
The law of large numbers (LLN) and central limit theorem (CLT) are long and widely been known as two fundamental results in probability theory. Recently problems of model uncertainties in statistics, measures of risk and superhedging in finance motivated us to introduce, in [4] and [5] (see also [2], [3] and references herein), a new notion of sublinear expectation, called \textquotedblleft% $G$-expectation\textquotedblright, and the related \textquotedblleft$G$-normal distribution\textquotedblright from which we were able to define G-Brownian motion as well as the corresponding stochastic cal…
Let $\mathbb{\hat{E}}$ be the upper expectation of a weakly compact but non-dominated family $\mathcal{P}$ of probability measures. Assume that $Y$ is a $d$-dimensional $\mathcal{P}$-semimartingale under $\mathbb{\hat{E}}$. Given an open set $Q\subset\mathbb{R}^{d}$, the exit time of $Y$ from $Q$ is defined by \[ τ_{Q}:=\inf\{t\geq0:Y_{t}\in Q^{c}\}. \] The main objective of this paper is to study the quasi-continuity properties of $τ_{Q}$ under the nonlinear expectation $\mathbb{\hat{E}}$. Under some additional assumptions on the growth and regularity of $Y$, we prove that $τ_{Q}\wedge t$ is …
We propose a geometric approach for bounding average stopping times for stopped random walks in discrete and continuous time. We consider stopping times in the hyperspace of time indexes and stochastic processes. Our techniques relies on exploring geometric properties of continuity or stopping regions. Especially, we make use of the concepts of convex sets and supporting hyperplane. Explicit formulae and efficiently computable bounds are obtained for average stopping times. Our techniques can be applied to bound average stopping times involving random vectors, nonlinear stopping boundary, and …
Let $X_n,...,X_1$ be i.i.d. random variables with distribution function $F$. A statistician, knowing $F$, observes the $X$ values sequentially and is given two chances to choose $X$'s using stopping rules. The statistician's goal is to stop at a value of $X$ as small as possible. Let $V_n^2$ equal the expectation of the smaller of the two values chosen by the statistician when proceeding optimally. We obtain the asymptotic behavior of the sequence $V_n^2$ for a large class of $F$'s belonging to the domain of attraction (for the minimum) ${\cal D}(G^α)$, where $G^α(x)=[1-\exp(-x^α)]{\bf I}(x \g…
