Erhan Bayraktar, Song Yao
We develop a theory for solving continuous time optimal stopping problems for non-linear expectations. Our motivation is to consider problems in which the stopper uses risk measures to evaluate future rewards.
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We study the existence of optimal actions in a zero-sum game $\inf_τ\sup_PE^P[X_τ]$ between a stopper and a controller choosing a probability measure. This includes the optimal stopping problem $\inf_τ\mathcal{E}(X_τ)$ for a class of sublinear expectations $\mathcal{E}(\cdot)$ such as the $G$-expectation. We show that the game has a value. Moreover, exploiting the theory of sublinear expectations, we define a nonlinear Snell envelope $Y$ and prove that the first hitting time $\inf\{t:Y_t=X_t\}$ is an optimal stopping time. The existence of a saddle point is shown under a compactness condition.…
On the time consistent solution to optimal stopping problems with expectation constraint
针对带停时期望约束的一维扩散最优停时问题，本文以随机化且纯状态依赖的停时定义弱均衡，给出验证定理、必要条件及结构性质，并用示例说明猜测—验证方法。
We analyze an optimal stopping problem with a series of inequality-type and equality-type expectation constraints in a general non-Markovian framework. We show that the optimal stopping problem with expectation constraints (OSEC) in an arbitrary probability setting is equivalent to the constrained problem in weak formulation (optimization over joint laws of stopping rules with Brownian motion and state dynamics on an enlarged canonical space) and thus the OSEC value. Using a martingale-problem formulation, we make an equivalent characterization of the probability classes in weak formulation, w…
We analyze an optimal stopping problem with random maturity under a nonlinear expectation with respect to a weakly compact set of mutually singular probabilities $\mathcal{P}$. The maturity is specified as the hitting time to level $0$ of some continuous index process at which the payoff process is even allowed to have a positive jump. When $\mathcal{P}$ is a collection of semimartingale measures, the optimal stopping problem can be viewed as a {\it discretionary} stopping problem for a player who can influence both drift and volatility of the dynamic of underlying stochastic flow.
Let $X$ be a bounded càdlàg process with positive jumps defined on the canonical space of continuous paths. We consider the problem of optimal stopping the process $X$ under a nonlinear expectation operator $\cE$ defined as the supremum of expectations over a weakly compact family of nondominated measures. We introduce the corresponding nonlinear Snell envelope. Our main objective is to extend the Snell envelope characterization to the present context. Namely, we prove that the nonlinear Snell envelope is an $\cE-$supermartingale, and an $\cE-$martingale up to its first hitting time of the obs…
We consider the optimal stopping problem with non-linear $f$-expectation (induced by a BSDE) without making any regularity assumptions on the reward process $ξ$. and with general filtration. We show that the value family can be aggregated by an optional process $Y$. We characterize the process $Y$ as the $\mathcal{E}^f$-Snell envelope of $ξ$. We also establish an infinitesimal characterization of the value process $Y$ in terms of a Reflected BSDE with $ξ$ as the obstacle. To do this, we first establish a comparison theorem for irregular RBSDEs. We give an application to the pricing of American…
We analyze an optimal stopping problem with a constraint on the expected cost. When the reward function and cost function are Lipschitz continuous in state variable, we show that the value of such an optimal stopping problem is a continuous function in current state and in budget level. Then we derive a dynamic programming principle (DPP) for the value function in which the conditional expected cost acts as an additional state process. As the optimal stopping problem with expectation constraint can be transformed to a stochastic optimization problem with supermartingale controls, we explore a …
Stochastic Control/Stopping Problem with Expectation Constraints
本文在非马尔可夫框架下研究带期望约束的随机控制/停止问题，证明其等价于弱形式约束问题，并通过鞅问题表述和可测选择论证建立动态规划原理，推广了已有结果。
We study a combined optimal control/stopping problem under a nonlinear expectation ${\cal E}^f$ induced by a BSDE with jumps, in a Markovian framework. The terminal reward function is only supposed to be Borelian. The value function $u$ associated with this problem is generally irregular. We first establish a {\em sub- (resp. super-) optimality principle of dynamic programming} involving its {\em upper- (resp. lower-) semicontinuous envelope} $u^*$ (resp. $u_*$). This result, called {\em weak} dynamic programming principle (DPP), extends that obtained in \cite{BT} in the case of a classical ex…
Optimal stopping with nonlinear expectation: geometric and algorithmic solutions
本文借助广义势函数的几何与路径方法刻画非线性期望下风险敏感马尔可夫最优停止问题的值函数，并提出以二维搜索成本构造该值函数的算法。
The value function of an optimal stopping problem for jump diffusions is known to be a generalized solution of a variational inequality. Assuming that the diffusion component of the process is nondegenerate and a mild assumption on the singularity of the Lévy measure, this paper shows that the value function of this optimal stopping problem on an unbounded domain with finite/infinite variation jumps is in $W^{2,1}_{p, loc}$ with $p\in(1, \infty)$. As a consequence, the smooth-fit property holds.
From finite population optimal stopping to mean field optimal stopping
本文研究有限总体最优停止问题向平均场极限的收敛性，利用粘性解刻画和单调格式方法证明值函数收敛，并通过有限总体策略的聚点刻画平均场最优停止策略，同时推广了混沌传播至停止McKean-Vlasov扩散。
We consider a class of time-inhomogeneous optimal stopping problems and we provide sufficient conditions on the data of the problem that guarantee monotonicity of the optimal stopping boundary. In our setting, time-inhomogeneity stems not only from the reward function but, in particular, from the time dependence of the drift coefficient of the one-dimensional stochastic differential equation (SDE) which drives the stopping problem. In order to obtain our results, we mostly employ probabilistic arguments: we use a comparison principle between solutions of the SDE computed at different starting …
In this paper, we consider the optimal stopping problem on semi-Markov processes (SMPs) with finite horizon, and aim to establish the existence and computation of optimal stopping times. To achieve the goal, we first develop the main results of finite horizon semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs) to the case with additional terminal costs, introduce an explicit construction of SMDPs, and prove the equivalence between the optimal stopping problems on SMPs and SMDPs. Then, using the equivalence and the results on SMDPs developed here, we not only show the existence of optimal stopping time of S…
The paper studies a class of multidimensional optimal stopping problems with infinite horizon for linear switching diffusions. There are two main novelties in the optimal problems considered: the underlying stochastic process has discontinuous paths and the cost function is not necessarily integrable on the entire time horizon, where the latter is often a key assumption in classical optimal stopping theory for diffusions, cf. [22, Corollary 2.9]. Under relatively mild conditions, we show, for the class of multidimensional optimal stopping problems under consideration, that the first entry time…
In this paper we consider discrete and continuous time risk sensitive optimal stopping problem. Using suitable properties of the underlying Feller-Markov process we prove continuity of the optimal stopping value function and provide formula for the optimal stopping policy. Next, we show how to link continuous time framework with its discrete time analogue. By considering suitable approximations, we obtain uniform convergence of the corresponding value functions.
In this paper we study optimal stopping problems with respect to distorted expectations of the form \begin{eqnarray*} \mathcal{E}(X)=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} x\,dG(F_X(x)), \end{eqnarray*} where $F_X$ is the distribution function of $X$ and $G$ is a convex distribution function on $[0,1].$ As a matter of fact, except for $G$ being the identity on $[0,1],$ dynamic versions of $\mathcal{E}(X)$ do not have the so-called time-consistency property necessary for the dynamic programming approach. So the standard approaches are not applicable to optimal stopping under $\mathcal{E}(X).$ In this paper, w…
This paper concerns an optimal stopping problem driven by the running maximum of a spectrally negative Levy process X. More precisely, we are interested in capped versions of the American lookback optimal stopping problem, which has its origins in mathematical finance, and provide semi-explicit solutions in terms of scale functions. The optimal stopping boundary is characterised by an ordinary first-order differential equation involving scale functions and, in particular, changes according to the path variation of X. Furthermore, we will link these capped problems to Peskir's maximality princi…
On the continuity of optimal stopping surfaces for jump-diffusions
本文证明了在温和的局部条件下，二维跳扩散最优停时问题的最优停时曲面关于时间和空间是联合连续的。
Consider the classic infinite-horizon problem of stopping a one-dimensional diffusion to optimise between running and terminal rewards and suppose we are given a parametrised family of such problems. We provide a general theory of parameter dependence in infinite-horizon stopping problems for which threshold strategies are optimal. The crux of the approach is a supermodularity condition which guarantees that the family of problems is indexable by a set valued map which we call the indifference map. This map is a natural generalisation of the allocation (Gittins) index, a classical quantity in …
Drift Control with Discretionary Stopping for a Diffusion
研究无限时间范围内扩散过程漂移的带自主停止随机控制，在固定运行成本和控制相关运行成本下最小化凸终端成本期望，证明最优控制为可显式计算的常数且最优策略为首次访问适当区间时停止，并考虑约束版本可转化为无约束问题求解。
We provide a new probabilistic proof of the connection between Rost's solution of the Skorokhod embedding problem and a suitable family of optimal stopping problems for Brownian motion with finite time-horizon. In particular we use stochastic calculus to show that the time reversal of the optimal stopping sets for such problems forms the so-called Rost's reversed barrier.
In the nonzero-sum setting, we establish a connection between Nash equilibria in games of optimal stopping (Dynkin games) and generalised Nash equilibrium problems (GNEP). In the Dynkin game this reveals novel equilibria of threshold type and of more complex types, and leads to novel uniqueness and stability results.
Approximation schemes for mixed optimal stopping and control problems with nonlinear expectations and jumps
本文提出了一类数值方案，用于处理具有无限活动跳跃过程的混合最优停止与控制问题，通过切换系统近似，将问题转化为非局部半线性方程，采用隐式单调近似方法求解，并通过数值实验验证了新方案的有效性。
Consider a set of discounted optimal stopping problems for a one-parameter family of objective functions and a fixed diffusion process, started at a fixed point. A standard problem in stochastic control/optimal stopping is to solve for the problem value in this setting. In this article we consider an inverse problem; given the set of problem values for a family of objective functions, we aim to recover the diffusion. Under a natural assumption on the family of objective functions we can characterise existence and uniqueness of a diffusion for which the optimal stopping problems have the specif…
In this paper we study a representation problem first considered in a simpler version by Bank and El Karoui [2004]. A key ingredient to this problem is a random measure $μ$ on the time axis which in the present paper is allowed to have atoms. Such atoms turn out to not only pose serious technical challenges in the proof of the representation theorem, but actually have significant meaning in its applications, for instance, in irreversible investment problems. These applications also suggest to study the problem for processes which are measurable with respect to a Meyer-$σ$-field that lies betwe…
This paper attempts to study the optimal stopping time for semi-Markov processes (SMPs) under the discount optimization criteria with unbounded cost rates. In our work, we introduce an explicit construction of the equivalent semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs). The equivalence is embodied in the value functions of SMPs and SMDPs, that is, every stopping time of SMPs can induce a policy of SMDPs such that the value functions are equal, and vice versa. The existence of the optimal stopping time of SMPs is proved by this equivalence relation. Next, we give the optimality equation of the value …
We use probabilistic methods to characterise time dependent optimal stopping boundaries in a problem of multiple optimal stopping on a finite time horizon. Motivated by financial applications we consider a payoff of immediate stopping of "put" type and the underlying dynamics follows a geometric Brownian motion. The optimal stopping region relative to each optimal stopping time is described in terms of two boundaries which are continuous, monotonic functions of time and uniquely solve a system of coupled integral equations of Volterra-type. Finally we provide a formula for the value function o…
On the optimal stopping problem for diffusions and an approximation result for stopping times
本文通过一种新方法研究多维扩散的有限时域最优停时问题，证明了一个关键等式，由此推导出最小最优停时、动态规划原理及价值函数的粘性解性质，并提供了可应用于其他随机控制问题的停时逼近结果。
We consider the mean-field game where each agent determines the optimal time to exit the game by solving an optimal stopping problem with reward function depending on the density of the state processes of agents still present in the game. We place ourselves in the framework of relaxed optimal stopping, which amounts to looking for the optimal occupation measure of the stopper rather than the optimal stopping time. This framework allows us to prove the existence of the relaxed Nash equilibrium and the uniqueness of the associated value of the representative agent under mild assumptions. Further…
We consider a class of infinite-time horizon optimal stopping problems for spectrally negative Levy processes. Focusing on strategies of threshold type, we write explicit expressions for the corresponding expected payoff via the scale function, and further pursue optimal candidate threshold levels. We obtain and show the equivalence of the continuous/smooth fit condition and the first-order condition for maximization over threshold levels. As examples of its applications, we give a short proof of the McKean optimal stopping problem (perpetual American put option) and solve an extension to Egam…
On the limit theory of mean field optimal stopping with non-Markov dynamics and common noise
本文研究了非马尔可夫动力学和公共噪声下的平均场最优停时问题，建立了极限理论并证明了强弱表述下价值函数的等价性，同时引入(H)-假设型条件保证等价性。
This paper studies the optimal multiple-stopping problem arising in the context of the timing option to withdraw from a project in stages. The profits are driven by a general spectrally negative Levy process. This allows the model to incorporate sudden declines of the project values, generalizing greatly the classical geometric Brownian motion model. We solve the one-stage case as well as the extension to the multiple-stage case. The optimal stopping times are of threshold-type and the value function admits an expression in terms of the scale function. A series of numerical experiments are con…
We show that if either the process is strong Feller and the boundary point is probabilistically regular for the stopping set, or the process is strong Markov and the boundary point is probabilistically regular for the interior of the stopping set, then the boundary point is Green regular for the stopping set. Combining this implication with the existence of a continuously differentiable flow of the process we show that the value function is continuously differentiable at the optimal stopping boundary whenever the gain function is so. The derived fact holds both in the parabolic and elliptic ca…
We consider the optimal stopping of a class of spectrally negative jump diffusions. We state a set of conditions under which the value is shown to have a representation in terms of an ordinary nonlinear programming problem. We establish a connection between the considered problem and a stopping problem of an associated continuous diffusion process and demonstrate how this connection may be applied for characterizing the stopping policy and its value. We also establish a set of typically satisfied conditions under which increased volatility as well as higher jump-intensity decelerates rational …
Given a stochastic state process $(X_t)_t$ and a real-valued submartingale cost process $(S_t)_t$, we characterize optimal stopping times $τ$ that minimize the expectation of $S_τ$ while realizing given initial and target distributions $μ$ and $ν$, i.e., $X_0\sim μ$ and $X_τ\sim ν$. A dual optimization problem is considered and shown to be attained under suitable conditions. The optimal solution of the dual problem then provides a contact set, which characterizes the location where optimal stopping can occur. The optimal stopping time is uniquely determined as the first hitting time of this co…
We study the problem of optimal stopping of conditional McKean-Vlasov (mean-field) stochastic differential equations with jumps (conditional McKean-Vlasov jump diffusions, for short). We obtain sufficient variational inequalities for a function to be the value function of such a problem and for a stopping time to be optimal. To achieve this, we combine the state equation for the conditional McKean-Vlasov equation with the associated stochastic Fokker-Planck equation for the conditional law of the solution of the state. This gives us a Markovian system which can be handled by using a version of…
We consider optimal stopping problems with finite-time horizon and state-dependent discounting. The underlying process is a one-dimensional linear diffusion and the gain function is time-homogeneous and difference of two convex functions. Under mild technical assumptions with local nature we prove fine regularity properties of the optimal stopping boundary including its continuity and strict monotonicity. The latter was never proven with probabilistic arguments. We also show that atoms in the signed measure associated with the second order spatial derivative of the gain function induce geometr…
Previous authors have considered optimal stopping problems driven by the running maximum of a spectrally negative Lévy process $X$, as well as of a one-dimensional diffusion. Many of the aforementioned results are either implicitly or explicitly dependent on Peskir's maximality principle. In this article, we are interested in understanding how some of the main ideas from these previous works can be brought into the setting of problems driven by the maximum of a class of Markov additive processes (more precisely Markov modulated Lévy processes). Similarly to previous works in the Lévy setting, …
We present a novel method for solving a class of time-inconsistent optimal stopping problems by reducing them to a family of standard stochastic optimal control problems. In particular, we convert an optimal stopping problem with a non-linear function of the expected stopping time in the objective into optimization over an auxiliary value function for a standard stochastic control problem with an additional state variable. This approach differs from the previous literature which primarily employs Lagrange multiplier methods or relies on exact solutions. In contrast, we characterize the auxilia…
The purpose of this paper is two-fold: We extend the well-known relation between optimal stopping and randomized stopping of a given stochastic process to a situation where the available information flow is a filtration with no a priori assumed relation to the filtration of the process. We call these problems optimal stopping and randomized stopping with general information. Following an idea of Krylov [K] we introduce a special singular stochastic control problem with general information and show that this is also equivalent to the partial information optimal stopping and randomized stopping …
This paper proves the existence of optimal stopping times via elementary functional analytic arguments. The problem is first relaxed into a convex optimization problem over a closed convex subset of the unit ball of the dual of a Banach space. The existence of optimal solutions then follows from the Banach--Alaoglu compactness theorem and the Krein--Millman theorem on extreme points of convex sets. This approach seems to give the most general existence results known to date. Applying convex duality to the relaxed problem gives a dual problem and optimality conditions in terms of martingales th…
We consider a non-Markovian optimal stopping problem on finite horizon. We prove that the value process can be represented by means of a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE), defined on an enlarged probability space, containing a stochastic integral having a one-jump point process as integrator and an (unknown) process with a sign constraint as integrand. This provides an alternative representation with respect to the classical one given by a reflected BSDE. The connection between the two BSDEs is also clarified. Finally, we prove that the value of the optimal stopping problem is t…
We consider the problem of optimally stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning time so as to maximise the value of the process upon stopping. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we assume the stopper has a general continuous prior and is allowed to update their belief about the value of the pinning time through sequential observations of the process. Uncertainty in the pinning time influences both the conditional dynamics of the process and the expected (random) horizon of the optimal stopping problem. We analyse certain gamma and beta distributed priors in detail. Remarkably, the optimal s…
In this paper we consider an infinite time horizon risk-sensitive optimal stopping problem for a Feller--Markov process with an unbounded terminal cost function. We show that in the unbounded case an associated Bellman equation may have multiple solutions and we give a probabilistic interpretation for the minimal and the maximal one. Also, we show how to approximate them using finite time horizon problems. The analysis, covering both discrete and continuous time case, is supported with illustrative examples.
We summarize the general results of El Karoui [1981] on optimal stopping problems for processes which are measurable with respect to Meyer-$σ$-fields. Meyer-$σ$-fields are due to Lenglart [1980] and include the optional and predictable $σ$-field as special cases. Novel contributions of our work are path regularity results for Meyer measurable processes and limit results for Meyer-projections. We will also clarify a minor issue in the proof of the optimality result in El Karoui [1981]. These extensions were inspired and needed for the proof of a stochastic representation theorem in Bank and Bes…
We study an optimal stopping problem under non-exponential discounting, where the state process is a multi-dimensional continuous strong Markov process. The discount function is taken to be log sub-additive, capturing decreasing impatience in behavioral economics. On strength of probabilistic potential theory, we establish the existence of an optimal equilibrium among a sufficiently large collection of equilibria, consisting of finely closed equilibria satisfying a boundary condition. This generalizes the existence of optimal equilibria for one-dimensional stopping problems in prior literature…
We use martingale and stochastic analysis techniques to study a continuous-time optimal stopping problem, in which the decision maker uses a dynamic convex risk measure to evaluate future rewards. We also find a saddle point for an equivalent zero-sum game of control and stopping, between an agent (the "stopper") who chooses the termination time of the game, and an agent (the "controller", or "nature") who selects the probability measure.
In this article we study and classify optimal martingales in the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems. In this respect we distinguish between weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales. It is shown that the family of weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales may be quite large. On the other hand it is shown that the Doob-martingale, that is, the martingale part of the Snell envelope, is in a certain sense the most robust surely optimal martingale under random perturbations. This new insight leads to a novel randomized dual martingale minimization algorithm that doesn't require …
We employ the viscosity solution technique to analyze optimal stopping problems with regime switching. Specifically, we obtain the viscosity property of value functions, the uniqueness of viscosity solutions, the regularity of value functions and the form of optimal stopping intervals. Finally, we provide an application of the results.
Given an initial (resp., terminal) probability measure $μ$ (resp., $ν$) on $\mathbb{R}^d$, we characterize those optimal stopping times $τ$ that maximize or minimize the functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_τ|^α$, $α> 0$, where $(B_t)_t$ is Brownian motion with initial law $B_0\sim μ$ and with final distribution --once stopped at $τ$-- equal to $B_τ\sim ν$. The existence of such stopping times is guaranteed by Skorohod-type embeddings of probability measures in "subharmoic order" into Brownian motion. This problem is equivalent to an optimal mass transport problem with certain constraints, namely t…
In this paper we study simulation based optimization algorithms for solving discrete time optimal stopping problems. This type of algorithms became popular among practioneers working in the area of quantitative finance. Using large deviation theory for the increments of empirical processes, we derive optimal convergence rates and show that they can not be improved in general. The rates derived provide a guide to the choice of the number of simulated paths needed in optimization step, which is crucial for the good performance of any simulation based optimization algorithm. Finally, we present a…
We solve the problem of optimal stopping of a Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the stopping time's distribution is a given measure consisting of finitely-many atoms. In particular, we show that this problem can be converted to a finite sequence of state-constrained optimal control problems with additional states corresponding to the conditional probability of stopping at each possible terminal time. The proof of this correspondence relies on a new variation of the dynamic programming principle for state-constrained problems which avoids measurable selection. We emphasize that dis…
Inspired by recent work of P.-L. Lions on conditional optimal control, we introduce a problem of optimal stopping under bounded rationality: the objective is the expected payoff at the time of stopping, conditioned on another event. For instance, an agent may care only about states where she is still alive at the time of stopping, or a company may condition on not being bankrupt. We observe that conditional optimization is time-inconsistent due to the dynamic change of the conditioning probability and develop an equilibrium approach in the spirit of R. H. Strotz' work for sophisticated agents …
Non-linear optimal stopping with Bermudan strategies: the infinite horizon case
本文针对无限时域下带非线性评估的最优停止问题，基于百慕大策略证明动态规划原理、ε-最优停时与最优停时的存在性，给出Doob型收敛结果并提供BSDEs相关示例。
In this paper we study the problem of stopping a Brownian bridge $X$ in order to maximise the expected value of an exponential gain function. In particular, we solve the stopping problem $$\sup_{0\le τ\le 1}\mathsf{E}[\mathrm{e}^{X_τ}]$$ which was posed by Ernst and Shepp in their paper [Commun. Stoch. Anal., 9 (3), 2015, pp. 419--423] and was motivated by bond selling with non-negative prices. Due to the non-linear structure of the exponential gain, we cannot rely on methods used in the literature to find closed-form solutions to other problems involving the Brownian bridge. Instead, we devel…
In this paper we present a new verification theorem for optimal stopping problems for Hunt processes. The approach is based on the Fukushima-Dynkin formula, and its advantage is that it allows us to verify that a given function is the value function without using the viscosity solution argument. Our verification theorem works in any dimension. We illustrate our results with some examples of optimal stopping of reflected diffusions and absorbed diffusions.
In this paper, we propose an extension of the forward improvement iteration algorithm, originally introduced in Irle (2006) and recently reconsidered in Miclo and Villeneuve (2021). The main new ingredient is a flexible window parameter describing the look-ahead distance in the improvement step. We consider the framework of a Markovian optimal stopping problem in discrete time with random discounting and infinite time horizon. We prove convergence and show that the additional flexibility may significantly reduce the runtime.
We study optimal double stopping problems driven by a Brownian bridge. The objective is to maximize the expected spread between the payoffs achieved at the two stopping times. We study several cases where the solutions can be solved explicitly by strategies of threshold type.
Existence of Strong Randomized Equilibria in Mean-Field Games of Optimal Stopping with Common Noise
本文借助 Bank-El Karoui 表示问题研究带共同噪声的最优停止平均场博弈，证明强随机均衡存在性，并分析严格停止均衡集合的比较静态性质。
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