This paper studies an optimal stopping problem for Lévy processes. We give a justification of the form of the Snell envelope using standard results of optimal stopping. We also justify the convexity of the value function, and without a priori restriction to a particular class of stopping times, we deduce that the smallest optimal stopping time is necessarily a hitting time. We propose a method which allows to obtain the optimal threshold. Moreover this method allows to avoid long calculations of the integro-differential operatorused in the usual proofs.
In this Note we study optimal stopping problems for strong Markov processes and affine functions. We give a justification of the Snell envelope form using standard results of optimal stopping. We also justify the convexity of the value function, and without a priori restriction to a particular class of stopping times, we deduce that the smallest optimal stopping time is necessarily a hitting time.
We propose an alternative approach for solving a number of well-studied optimal stopping problems for Lévy processes. Instead of the usual method of guess-and-verify based on martingale properties of the value function, we suggest a more direct method by showing that the general theory of optimal stopping for strong Markov processes together with some elementary observations imply that the stopping set must be of a certain form for the optimal stopping problems we consider. The independence of increments and the strong Markov property of Lévy processes then allow us to use straightforward opti…
In this article we consider a toy example of an optimal stopping problem driven by fragmentation processes. We show that one can work with the concept of stopping lines to formulate the notion of an optimal stopping problem and moreover, to reduce it to a classical optimal stopping problem for a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process associated with Bertoin's tagged fragment. We go on to solve the latter using a classical verification technique thanks to the application of aspects of the modern theory of integrated exponential Levy processes.
A new class of multi-player competitive stochastic games in discrete-time with an affine specification of the redistribution of payoffs at exercise is proposed and examined. Our games cover as a very special case the classic two-person stochastic stopping games introduced by Dynkin (1969). We first extend to the case of a single-period deterministic affine game the results from Guo and Rutkowski (2012,2014) where a particular subclass of competitive stopping games was studied. We identify conditions under which optimal equilibria and value for a multi-player competitive game with affine redist…
Our purpose is to study a particular class of optimal stopping problems for Markov processes. We justify the value function convexity and we deduce that there exists a boundary function such that the smallest optimal stopping time is the first time when the Markov process passes over the boundary depending on time. Moreover, we propose a method to find the optimal boundary function.
We characterize the value function and the optimal stopping time for a large class of optimal stopping problems where the underlying process to be stopped is a fairly general Markov process. The main result is inspired by recent findings for Lévy processes obtained essentially via the Wiener-Hopf factorization. The main ingredient in our approach is the representation of the $β$-excessive functions as expected suprema. A variety of examples is given.
This paper deals with the optimal stopping problem under partial observation for piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We first obtain a recursive formulation of the optimal filter process and derive the dynamic programming equation of the partially observed optimal stopping problem. Then, we propose a numerical method, based on the quantization of the discrete-time filter process and the inter-jump times, to approximate the value function and to compute an actual $ε$-optimal stopping time. We prove the convergence of the algorithms and bound the rates of convergence.
Infinite horizon optimal stopping problems for a Lévy processes with a two-sided reward function are considered. A two-sided verification theorem is presented in terms of the overall supremum and the overall infimum of the process. A result to compute the angle of the value function at the optimal thresholds of the stopping region is given. To illustrate the results, the optimal stopping problem of a compound Poisson process with two-sided exponential jumps and a two-sided payoff function is solved. In this example, the smooth-pasting condition does not hold.
We describe a variational approach to solving optimal stopping problems for diffusion processes, as an alternative to the traditional approach based on the solution of the free-boundary problem. We study smooth pasting conditions from a variational point of view, and give some examples when the solution to free-boundary problem is not the solution to optimal stopping problem. A special attention is paid to threshold strategies which allow reduce optimal stopping problem to more simple one-parametric optimization. Necessary and sufficient conditions for threshold structure of optimal stopping t…
In this paper we study the optimal stopping problem for Lévy processes studied by Novikov and Shiryayev, Stochastics, 2007 In particular, we are interested in finding the representing measure of the value function. It is seen that that this can be expressed in terms of the Appell polynomials. An important tool in our approach and computations is the Wiener-Hopf factorization.
We study a problem when a solution to optimal stopping problem for one-dimensional diffusion will generate by threshold strategy. Namely, we give necessary and sufficient conditions under which an optimal stopping time can be specified as the first time when the process exceeds some level (threshold), and a continuation set is a semi-interval. We give also second-order conditions, which allow to discard such solutions to free-boundary problem that are not the solutions to optimal stopping problem.
This article is devoted to the investigation of limit theorems for mixed max-sum processes with renewal type stopping indexes. Limit theorems of weak convergence type are obtained as well as functional limit theorems.
We define a class of reflected backward stochastic differential equation (RBSDE) driven by a marked point process (MPP) and a Brownian motion, where the solution is constrained to stay above a given càdlàg process. The MPP is only required to be non-explosive and to have totally inaccessible jumps. Under suitable assumptions on the coefficients we obtain existence and uniqueness of the solution, using the Snell envelope theory. We use the equation to represent the value function of an optimal stopping problem, and we characterize the optimal strategy. Keywords: reflected backward stochastic di…
This paper investigates the random horizon optimal stopping problem for measure-valued piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). This is motivated by population dynamics applications, when one wants to monitor some characteristics of the individuals in a small population. The population and its individual characteristics can be represented by a point measure. We first define a PDMP on a space of locally finite measures. Then we define a sequence of random horizon optimal stopping problems for such processes. We prove that the value function of the problems can be obtained by iterating …
Explicit solution of an infinite horizon optimal stopping problem for a Levy processes with a polynomial reward function is given, in terms of the overall supremum of the process, when the solution of the problem is one-sided. The results are obtained via the generalization of known results about the averaging function associated with the problem. This averaging function can be directly computed in case of polynomial rewards. To illustrate this result, examples for general quadratic and cubic polynomials are discussed in case the process is Brownian motion, and the optimal stopping problem for…
The optimal stopping problem for a Hunt processes on $\R$ is considered via the representation theory of excessive functions. In particular, we focus on infinite horizon (or perpetual) problems with one-sided structure, that is, there exists a point $x^*$ such that the stopping region is of the form $[x^*,+\infty)$. Corresponding results for two-sided problems are also indicated. The main result is a spectral representation of the value function in terms of the Green kernel of the process. Specializing in Lévy processes, we obtain, by applying the Wiener-Hopf factorization, a general represent…
We consider the optimal stopping problem consisting in, given a strong Markov process, a reward function and a discount rate, finding the stopping time such that the expected reward at the stopping time is maximum. The approach we follow, has two main components: the Dynkin's characterization of the value function as the smallest excessive function dominating the reward; and the Riesz representation of excessive functions in terms of the Green kernel, the main reference being Salminen 85. In the context of one-dimensional diffusions we give a complete characterization of the solution under som…
We extend the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm for approximately solving optimal stopping problems on high-dimensional state spaces. We reformulate the optimal stopping problem for Markov processes in discrete time as a generalized statistical learning problem. Within this setup we apply deviation inequalities for suprema of empirical processes to derive consistency criteria, and to estimate the convergence rate and sample complexity. Our results strengthen and extend earlier results.
We propose a numerical method to approximate the value function for the optimal stopping problem of a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP). Our approach is based on quantization of the post jump location---inter-arrival time Markov chain naturally embedded in the PDMP, and path-adapted time discretization grids. It allows us to derive bounds for the convergence rate of the algorithm and to provide a computable $ε$-optimal stopping time. The paper is illustrated by a numerical example.
A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process $Z_n$ with offspring distribution $Y$, there exists a random variable $X$ such that the probability $P(Z_n=0)$ of extinction of the $n$th generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence $X_1,...,X_n$, where these variables are i.i.d distributed as $X$. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple `stoppi…
We present a method to solve optimal stopping problems in infinite horizon for a Lévy process when the reward function can be non-monotone. To solve the problem we introduce two new objects. Firstly, we define a random variable $η(x)$ which corresponds to the argmax of the reward function. Secondly, we propose a certain integral transform which can be built on any suitable random variable. It turns out that this integral transform constructed from $η(x)$ and applied to the reward function produces an easy and straightforward description of the optimal stopping rule. We check the consistency of…
In the literature on optimal stopping, the problem of maximizing the expected discounted reward over all stopping times has been explicitly solved for some special reward functions (including $(x^+)^ν$, $(e^x-K)^+$, $(K-e^{-x})^+$, $x\in\mathbb{R}$, $ν\in(0,\infty)$ and $K>0$) under general random walks in discrete time and Lévy processes in continuous time (subject to mild integrability conditions). All of such reward functions are continuous, increasing and logconcave while the corresponding optimal stopping times are of threshold type (i.e. the solutions are one-sided). In this paper, we sh…
Let $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a known process and $T$ an unknown random time independent of $X$. Our goal is to derive the distribution of $T$ based on an iid sample of $X_T$. Belomestny and Schoenmakers (2015) propose a solution based the Mellin transform in case where $X$ is a Brownian motion. Applying their technique we construct a non-parametric estimator for the density of $T$ for a self-similar one-dimensional process $X$. We calculate the minimax convergence rate of our estimator in some examples with a particular focus on Bessel processes where we also show asymptotic normality.
In this paper, we study the optimal multiple stopping problem under the filtration consistent nonlinear expectations. The reward is given by a set of random variables satisfying some appropriate assumptions rather than an RCLL process. We first construct the optimal stopping time for the single stopping problem, which is no longer given by the first hitting time of processes. We then prove by induction that the value function of the multiple stopping problem can be interpreted as the one for the single stopping problem associated with a new reward family, which allows us to construct the optim…
In this paper, we solve explicitly the optimal stopping problem with random discounting and an additive functional as cost of observations for a regular linear diffusion. We also extend the results to the class of one-sided regular Feller processes. This generalizes the result of Beibel and Lerche [Statist. Sinica 7 (1997) 93-108] and [Teor. Veroyatn. Primen. 45 (2000) 657-669] and Irles and Paulsen [Sequential Anal. 23 (2004) 297-316]. Our approach relies on a combination of techniques borrowed from potential theory and stochastic calculus. We illustrate our results by detailing some new exam…
Under the hypothesis of convergence in probability of a sequence of càdlàg processes $(X^n)\_n$ to a càdlàg process $X$, we are interested in the convergence of corresponding values in optimal stopping and also in the convergence of optimal stopping times. We give results under hypothesis of inclusion of filtrations or convergence of filtrations.
This article treats both discrete time and continuous time stopping problems for general Markov processes on the real line with general linear costs. Using an auxiliary function of maximum representation type, conditions are given to guarantee the optimal stopping time to be of threshold type. The optimal threshold is then characterized as the root of that function. For random walks our results condense in the fact that all combinations of concave increasing pay-off functions and convex cost functions lead to a one-sided solution. For Lévy processes an explicit way to obtain the auxiliary func…
Convergence is proved for solutions of Dirichlet problems in regions with many small excluded sets (holes), as the holes become smaller and more numerous. The problem is formulated in the context of Markov processes associated with general Dirichlet forms, for random and nonrandom excluded sets. Sufficient conditions are given under which the sequence of entrance times or hitting times of the excluded sets converges in the stable topology. Convergence in the stable topology is a strengthened form of convergence in distribution, introduced by Renyi. Stable convergence of the entrance times impl…
We present a representation theorem for a filtering model with first-passage-type stopping time. The model is constructed from two unobservable processes and one observable process that is under the influence of two unobservable processes.A filter is constructed using Brownian motion in the observable process and a first-passage-type stopping time in an unobservable process.Though our theorems are similar to those of Nakagawa\cite{Nakagawa}, we do not use pinned Brownian motion measure, which is difficult to deal with. In addition, we describe a representation theorem for another filtration th…
There exists a simple, didactically useful one-to-one relationship between stopping times and adapted càglàd (LCRL) processes that are non-increasing and take the values 0 and 1 only. As a consequence, stopping times are always hitting times.
We show that any cadlag predictable process of finite variation is an a.s. limit of elementary predictable processes; it follows that predictable stopping times can be approximated `from below' by predictable stopping times which take finitely many values. We then obtain as corollaries two classical theorems: predictable stopping times are announceable, and an increasing process is predictable iff it is natural.
In this paper, we consider the optimal stopping problem on semi-Markov processes (SMPs) with finite horizon, and aim to establish the existence and computation of optimal stopping times. To achieve the goal, we first develop the main results of finite horizon semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs) to the case with additional terminal costs, introduce an explicit construction of SMDPs, and prove the equivalence between the optimal stopping problems on SMPs and SMDPs. Then, using the equivalence and the results on SMDPs developed here, we not only show the existence of optimal stopping time of S…
Under the hypothesis of convergence in probability of a sequence of càdlàg processes $(X^n)_n$ to a càdlàg process $X$, we are interested in the convergence of corresponding values in optimal stopping. We give results under hypothesis of inclusion of filtrations or convergence of filtrations.
We adapt ideas and concepts developed in optimal transport (and its martingale variant) to give a geometric description of optimal stopping times of Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the distribution of the stopping time is a given probability. The methods work for a large class of cost processes. (At a minimum we need the cost process to be measurable and adapted. Continuity assumptions can be used to guarantee existence of solutions.) We find that for many of the cost processes one can come up with, the solution is given by the first hitting time of a barrier in a suitable phase…
We introduce a class of continuous planar processes, called "semimartingales on rays", and develop for them a change-of-variable formula involving quite general classes of test functions. Special cases of such planar processes are diffusions which choose, once they reach the origin, the rays for their subsequent voyage according to a fixed probability measure in the manner of Walsh (1978). We develop existence and uniqueness results up to an explosion time for these "Walsh diffusions", study their asymptotic behavior, and develop tests for explosions in finite time. We use these results to fin…
We introduce a new formulation of reflected BSDEs and doubly reflected BSDEs associated with irregular obstacles. In the first part of the paper, we consider an extension of the classical optimal stopping problem over a larger set of stopping systems than the set of stopping times (namely, the set of split stopping times), where the payoff process $ξ$ is irregular and in the case of a general filtration. Split stopping times are a powerful tool for modeling financial contracts and derivatives that depend on multiple conditions or triggers, and for incorporating stochastic processes with jumps …
This paper attempts to study the optimal stopping time for semi-Markov processes (SMPs) under the discount optimization criteria with unbounded cost rates. In our work, we introduce an explicit construction of the equivalent semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs). The equivalence is embodied in the value functions of SMPs and SMDPs, that is, every stopping time of SMPs can induce a policy of SMDPs such that the value functions are equal, and vice versa. The existence of the optimal stopping time of SMPs is proved by this equivalence relation. Next, we give the optimality equation of the value …
We propose a method based on continuous time Markov chain approximation to compute the distribution of Parisian stopping times and price Parisian options under general one-dimensional Markov processes. We prove the convergence of the method under a general setting and obtain sharp estimate of the convergence rate for diffusion models. Our theoretical analysis reveals how to design the grid of the CTMC to achieve faster convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our method for both diffusion and jump models. To show the versality of our approa…
Previous authors have considered optimal stopping problems driven by the running maximum of a spectrally negative Lévy process $X$, as well as of a one-dimensional diffusion. Many of the aforementioned results are either implicitly or explicitly dependent on Peskir's maximality principle. In this article, we are interested in understanding how some of the main ideas from these previous works can be brought into the setting of problems driven by the maximum of a class of Markov additive processes (more precisely Markov modulated Lévy processes). Similarly to previous works in the Lévy setting, …
In this paper, we develop new optional stopping theorems for scenarios where the stopping rules are defined by bounded continuity regions. Moreover, we establish a wide variety of inequalities on the supremums and infimums of functions of stochastic processes over the whole range of time indexes.
We consider the theory of stopping bounded processes within the framework of Hudson--Parthasarathy quantum stochastic calculus, for both identity and vacuum adaptedness. This provides significant new insight into Coquio's method of stopping (J. Funct. Anal. 238:149-180, 2006). Vacuum adaptedness is required to express certain quantum stochastic representations, and many results, including the proof of the optional-sampling theorem, take a more natural form.
We study two-player zero-sum stopping games in continuous time and infinite horizon. We prove that the value in randomized stopping times exists as soon as the payoff processes are right-continuous. In particular, as opposed to existing literature, we do not assume any conditions on the relations between the payoff processes. We also show that both players have simple epsilon- optimal randomized stopping times; namely, randomized stopping times which are small perturbations of non-randomized stopping times.
We consider affine Markov processes taking values in convex cones. In particular, we characterize all affine processes taking values in an irreducible symmetric cone in terms of certain Lévy-Khintchine triplets. This is the complete classification of affine processes on these conic state spaces, thus extending the theory of Wishart processes on positive semidefinite matrices, as put forward by Bru (1991).
The theory of affine processes has been recently extended to the framework of stochastic Volterra equations with continuous trajectories. These so-called affine Volterra processes overcome modeling shortcomings of affine processes because they can have trajectories whose regularity is different from the regularity of the paths of Brownian motion. More specifically, singular kernels yield rough affine processes. This paper extends the theory by considering affine stochastic Volterra equations with jumps. This extension is not straightforward because the jump structure together with possible sin…
In this paper we study a representation problem first considered in a simpler version by Bank and El Karoui [2004]. A key ingredient to this problem is a random measure $μ$ on the time axis which in the present paper is allowed to have atoms. Such atoms turn out to not only pose serious technical challenges in the proof of the representation theorem, but actually have significant meaning in its applications, for instance, in irreversible investment problems. These applications also suggest to study the problem for processes which are measurable with respect to a Meyer-$σ$-field that lies betwe…
In this article, we present a method for approximating affine processes on the cone of positive Hilbert-Schmidt operators using matrix-valued affine processes. By leveraging results from the theory on affine processes with values in the cone of symmetric and positive semi-definite matrices, we construct sequences of finite-rank operator-valued affine processes that converge weakly to the target processes and provide convergence rates for their Laplace transforms using Galerkin approximations of the associated operator-valued generalized Riccati equations. This article not only offers a practic…
For a type of employee stock option (ESO) and an American put option with a barrier, we obtain closed-form formulae for the value functions and provide a complete characterization for optimal stopping/continuation regions. Some comparison principles for the critical levels and the value functions are given. This work is inspired by the characterization of the value functions for general one-dimensional regular diffusion processes developed in \cite{DK03} by Dayanik and Karatzas.
Based on the theory of multivariate time changes for Markov processes, we show how to identify affine processes as solutions of certain time change equations. The result is a strong version of a theorem presented by J. Kallsen (2006) which provides a representation in law of an affine process as a time-change transformation of a family of independent Lévy processes.
Under the framework of G-expectation and G-Brownian motion, we introduce Itô's integral for stochastic processes without assuming quasi-continuity. Then we can obtain Itô's integral on stopping time interval. This new formulation permits us to obtain Itô's formula for a general C^{1,2}-function, which essentially generalizes the previous results of Peng [20, 21, 22, 23, 24] as well as those of Gao [8] and Zhang et al. [26].
For general (1+1)-affine Markov processes, we prove the ergodicity and exponential ergodicity in total variation distances. Our methods follow the arguments of ergodic properties for Lévy-driven OU-processes and a coupling of CBI-processes constructed by stochastic equations driven by time-space noises. Then the strong Feller property is considered.
We consider the representation of the value of an optimal stopping problem of a linear diffusion as an expected supremum of a known function. We establish an explicit integral representation of this function by utilizing the explicitly known joint probability distribution of the extremal processes. We also delineate circumstances under which the value of a stopping problem induces directly this representation and show how it is connected with the monotonicity of the generator. We compare our findings with existing literature and show, for example, how our representation is linked to the smooth…
This work is devoted to the study of conservative affine processes on the canonical state space $D = $R_+^m \times \R^n$, where $m + n > 0$. We show that each affine process can be obtained as the pathwise unique strong solution to a stochastic equation driven by Brownian motions and Poisson random measures. Then we study the long-time behavior of affine processes, i.e., we show that under first moment condition on the state-dependent and log-moment conditions on the state-independent jump measures, respectively, each subcritical affine process is exponentially ergodic in a suitably chosen Was…
Carr and Wu (2004), henceforth CW, developed a framework that encompasses almost all of the continuous-time models proposed in the option pricing literature. Their main result hinges on the stopping time property of the time changes, but all of the models CW proposed for the time changes do not satisfy this assumption. In this paper, when the time changes are adapted, but not necessarily stopping times, we provide analogous results to CW. We show that our approach can be applied to all models in CW.
We introduce the analogue of Dunkl processes in the case of an affine root system of type $\widetilde{\text{A}}_1$. The construction of the affine Dunkl process is achieved by a skew-product decomposition by means of its radial part and a jump process on the affine Weyl group, where the radial part of the affine Dunkl process is defined as the unique solution of some stochastic differential equation. We prove that the affine Dunkl process is a càdlàg Markov process as well as a local martingale, study its jumps, and give a martingale decomposition, which are properties similar to those of the …
