In this article we consider a toy example of an optimal stopping problem driven by fragmentation processes. We show that one can work with the concept of stopping lines to formulate the notion of an optimal stopping problem and moreover, to reduce it to a classical optimal stopping problem for a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process associated with Bertoin's tagged fragment. We go on to solve the latter using a classical verification technique thanks to the application of aspects of the modern theory of integrated exponential Levy processes.
Infinite horizon optimal stopping problems for a Lévy processes with a two-sided reward function are considered. A two-sided verification theorem is presented in terms of the overall supremum and the overall infimum of the process. A result to compute the angle of the value function at the optimal thresholds of the stopping region is given. To illustrate the results, the optimal stopping problem of a compound Poisson process with two-sided exponential jumps and a two-sided payoff function is solved. In this example, the smooth-pasting condition does not hold.
This paper investigates the random horizon optimal stopping problem for measure-valued piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). This is motivated by population dynamics applications, when one wants to monitor some characteristics of the individuals in a small population. The population and its individual characteristics can be represented by a point measure. We first define a PDMP on a space of locally finite measures. Then we define a sequence of random horizon optimal stopping problems for such processes. We prove that the value function of the problems can be obtained by iterating …
Optimal Stopping for Strong Markov Processes: Explicit solutions and verification theorems for diffusions, multidimensional diffusions, and jump-processes
Growth-fragmentation processes describe systems of particles in which each particle may grow larger or smaller, and divide into smaller ones as time proceeds. Unlike previous studies, which have focused mainly on the self-similar case, we introduce a new type of growth-fragmentation which is closely related to Lévy driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes. Our model can be viewed as a generalization of compensated fragmentation processes introduced by Bertoin, or the stochastic counterpart of a family of growth-fragmentation equations. We establish a convergence criterion for a sequence of suc…
Let $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a known process and $T$ an unknown random time independent of $X$. Our goal is to derive the distribution of $T$ based on an iid sample of $X_T$. Belomestny and Schoenmakers (2015) propose a solution based the Mellin transform in case where $X$ is a Brownian motion. Applying their technique we construct a non-parametric estimator for the density of $T$ for a self-similar one-dimensional process $X$. We calculate the minimax convergence rate of our estimator in some examples with a particular focus on Bessel processes where we also show asymptotic normality.
In this paper, we study the optimal multiple stopping problem under the filtration consistent nonlinear expectations. The reward is given by a set of random variables satisfying some appropriate assumptions rather than an RCLL process. We first construct the optimal stopping time for the single stopping problem, which is no longer given by the first hitting time of processes. We then prove by induction that the value function of the multiple stopping problem can be interpreted as the one for the single stopping problem associated with a new reward family, which allows us to construct the optim…
We provide explicit conditions, in terms of the transition kernel of its driving particle, for a Markov branching process to admit a scaling limit toward a self-similar growth-fragmentation with negative index. We also derive a scaling limit for the genealogical embedding considered as a compact real tree.
This article treats both discrete time and continuous time stopping problems for general Markov processes on the real line with general linear costs. Using an auxiliary function of maximum representation type, conditions are given to guarantee the optimal stopping time to be of threshold type. The optimal threshold is then characterized as the root of that function. For random walks our results condense in the fact that all combinations of concave increasing pay-off functions and convex cost functions lead to a one-sided solution. For Lévy processes an explicit way to obtain the auxiliary func…
We consider fragmentation processes with values in the space of marked partitions of $\mathbb{N}$, i.e. partitions where each block is decorated with a nonnegative real number. Assuming that the marks on distinct blocks evolve as independent positive self-similar Markov processes and determine the speed at which their blocks fragment, we get a natural generalization of the self-similar fragmentations of Bertoin (2002). Our main result is the characterization of these generalized fragmentation processes: a Lévy-Khinchin representation is obtained, using techniques from positive self-similar Mar…
In this paper, we consider the optimal stopping problem on semi-Markov processes (SMPs) with finite horizon, and aim to establish the existence and computation of optimal stopping times. To achieve the goal, we first develop the main results of finite horizon semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs) to the case with additional terminal costs, introduce an explicit construction of SMDPs, and prove the equivalence between the optimal stopping problems on SMPs and SMDPs. Then, using the equivalence and the results on SMDPs developed here, we not only show the existence of optimal stopping time of S…
We consider the class of exchangeable fragmentation-coagulation (EFC) processes where coagulations are multiple and not simultaneous, as in a $Λ$-coalescent, and fragmentation dislocates at finite rate an individual block into sub-blocks of infinite size. We call these partition-valued processes, simple EFC processes, and study the question whether such a process, when started with infinitely many blocks, can visit partitions with a finite number of blocks or not. When this occurs, one says that the process comes down from infinity. We introduce two sharp parameters $θ_{\star}\leq θ^{\star}\in…
We consider the model of Brownian motion indexed by the Brownian tree. For every $r\geq 0$ and every connected component of the set of points where Brownian motion is greater than $r$, we define the boundary size of this component, and we then show that the collection of these boundary sizes evolves when $r$ varies like a well-identified growth-fragmentation process. We then prove that the same growth-fragmentation process appears when slicing a Brownian disk at height $r$ and considering the perimeters of the resulting connected components.
We provide a new geometric representation of a family of fragmentation processes by nested laminations, which are compact subsets of the unit disk made of noncrossing chords. We specifically consider a fragmentation obtained by cutting a random stable tree at random points, which split the tree into smaller subtrees. When coding each of these cutpoints by a chord in the unit disk, we separate the disk into smaller connected components, corresponding to the smaller subtrees of the initial tree. This geometric point of view allows us in particular to highlight a new relation between the Aldous-P…
Markovian growth-fragmentation processes introduced by Bertoin extend the pure fragmentation model by allowing the fragments to grow larger or smaller between dislocation events. What becomes of the known asymptotic behaviors of self-similar pure fragmentations when growth is added to the fragments is a natural question that we investigate in this paper. Our results involve the terminal value of some additive martingales whose uniform integrability is an essential requirement. Dwelling first on the homogeneous case, we exploit the connection with branching random walks and in particular the ma…
A Markov Additive Process is a bi-variate Markov process $(ξ,J)=\big((ξ_t,J_t),t\geq0\big)$ which should be thought of as a multi-type Lévy process: the second component $J$ is a Markov chain on a finite space $\{1,\ldots,K\}$, and the first component $ξ$ behaves locally as a Lévy process, with local dynamics depending on $J$. In the subordinator-like case where $ξ$ is nondecreasing, we establish several results concerning the moments of $ξ$ and of its exponential functional $I_ξ=\int_{0}^{\infty} e^{-ξ_t}\mathrm dt,$ extending the work of Carmona et al., and Bertoin and Yor. We then apply the…
