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arXiv 2402.09776cs.GTcs.MA
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带有公开计票的在线选举中的策略性投票时机

Strategic Vote Timing in Online Elections With Public Tallies

Aviv Yaish, Svetlana Abramova, Rainer Böhme

AI总结:

研究公开计票下在线选举的策略性投票时机,构建包含知情与未知情摇摆选民的模型,证明了早晚期投票均衡的存在性及“最后一刻”投票行为的条件。

摘要:

我们研究公开计票对在线选举的影响,设定投票有成本且选民可以策略性地选择投票时机。当投票公开时,选择“何时”投票具有策略重要性,例如在线活动安排投票(如 Doodle)或区块链治理机制。具体而言,在尽早投票以影响后续投票与等待观察中期结果并在结果已定时代价避免投票成本之间存在张力。我们的研究基于实证发现,即当向选民公布中期结果时会出现“时间”从众效应:晚期选民更倾向于投票给领先候选人。为捕捉这一现象,我们分析了一个新模型,其中选民由具有偏好候选人的知情选民和可根据投票时中期结果被影响的未知情摇摆选民组成。在主要结果中,我们证明了早期和晚期投票均以正概率发生的均衡存在性,并刻画了导致“最后一刻”投票行为(所有知情选民均晚期投票)的条件。

英文摘要:

We study the effect of public tallies on online elections, in a setting where voting is costly and voters are allowed to strategically time their votes. The strategic importance of choosing \emph{when} to vote arises when votes are public, such as in online event scheduling polls (e.g., Doodle), or in blockchain governance mechanisms. In particular, there is a tension between voting early to influence future votes and waiting to observe interim results and avoid voting costs if the outcome has already been decided. Our study draws on empirical findings showing that "temporal" bandwagon effects occur when interim results are revealed to the electorate: late voters are more likely to vote for leading candidates. To capture this phenomenon, we analyze a novel model where the electorate consists of informed voters who have a preferred candidate, and uninformed swing voters who can be swayed according to the interim outcome at the time of voting. In our main results, we prove the existence of equilibria where both early and late voting occur with a positive probability, and we characterize conditions that lead to the appearance of "last minute" voting behavior, where all informed voters vote late.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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