在即时决选投票选举中投出关键票的概率
The probability of casting a pivotal vote in an Instant Runoff Voting election
AI总结：
本文推导了即时决选投票中一张选票改变获胜者的概率，发现其与简单多数制下的关键票概率相近，并揭示了“间接关键性”这一反直觉现象。
摘要：
我推导了在即时决选投票选举中一张选票改变选举获胜者的概率。我用候选人的预期得票总数来表述该概率，然后针对不同的选民偏好分布估计其大小。结果与在单席位选区简单多数制选举中投出关键票的概率非常相似，这表明即时决选投票实际上并没有增加或减少选民进行策略性投票的激励。推导过程揭示了一个反直觉的现象，我称之为“间接关键性”，即选民可以通过在选票上将其他某个候选人排在前面而使某个候选人获胜。
英文摘要：
I derive the probability that a vote cast in an Instant Runoff Voting election will change the election winner. I phrase that probability in terms of the candidates' expected vote totals, and then I estimate its magnitude for different distributions of voter preferences. The result is very similar to the probability of casting a pivotal vote in a Single-Member District Plurality election, which suggests that Instant Runoff Voting does not actually increase or decrease voters' incentives to vote strategically. The derivation uncovers a counter-intuitive phenomenon that I call "indirect pivotality", in which a voter can cause one candidate to win by ranking some other candidate on their ballot.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
