The observed tension ($\sim 9\%$ difference) between the local distance ladder measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, and its value inferred from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could hint at new, exotic, cosmological physics. We test the impact of the assumption about the expansion history of the universe ($0.01<z<2.3$) on the local distance ladder estimate of $H_0$. In the fiducial analysis, the Hubble flow Type Ia supernova (SN~Ia) sample is truncated to $z < 0.15$ and the deceleration parameter ($q_0$) fixed to -0.55. We create realistic simulations of the calibrator and Pantheon samples and account for a full systematics covariance between these two sets. We fit several physically motivated dark energy models and derive combined constraints from calibrator and Pantheon SNe~Ia and simultaneously infer $H_0$ and dark energy properties. We find that the assumption on the dark energy model does not significantly change the local distance ladder value of $H_0$, with a maximum difference ($ΔH_0$) between the inferred value for different models of 0.47 km$^{-1}$ s$^{-1}$ Mpc $^{-1}$, i.e. a 0.6$\%$ shift in $H_0$, significantly smaller than the observed tension. Additional freedom in the dark energy models does not increase the error in the inferred value of $H_0$. Including systematics covariance between the calibrators, low redshift SNe, and high redshift SNe can induce small shifts in the inferred value for $H_0$. The SN~Ia systematics in this study contribute $\lesssim 0.8 \%$ to the total uncertainty on $H_0$.
Recent determination of the Hubble constant via Cepheid-calibrated supernovae by \citet{riess_2.4_2016} (R16) find $\sim 3σ$ tension with inferences based on cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization measurements from $Planck$. This tension could be an indication of inadequacies in the concordance $Λ$CDM model. Here we investigate the possibility that the discrepancy could instead be due to systematic bias or uncertainty in the Cepheid calibration step of the distance ladder measurement by R16. We consider variations in total-to-selective extinction of Cepheid flux as a function…
Recent work by Efstathiou (2014) highlighted the importance of outliers in the period-luminosity (PL) relation of Cepheid data on the distance ladder. We present a statistical framework designed to address this difficulty, and apply it to the Cepheid data from the Milky Way (MW), the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), and the Riess et al. (2011) (hereafter R11) dataset. We consider two possible models of the outlier population in the R11 Cepheid dataset. One of these models exhibits tension between the PL relation of the R11 cepheids and the MW+LMC cepheids, while the other does not. We extend our …
Over the last few years, low- and high-redshift observations set off a tension in the measurement of the present-day expansion rate, $H_0$. Adding to the riddle, observational data from the Planck mission point to a $3.4σ$ evidence for a closed universe, further challenging the $Λ$CDM concordance model of cosmology. Recently, a direct-observational test has been proposed to discriminate effects of the spatial curvature in the cosmological model. The test is based on the fundamental distance--flux--redshift relation of the luminosity distance modulus, $Δμ$. We reexamine the outcomes of this tes…
In a recent paper, we investigated possible systematic uncertainties related to the Cepheid color-luminosity calibration method and their influence on the tension between the Hubble constant as inferred from distances to Type Ia supernovae and the cosmic microwave background as measured with the Planck satellite. Here, we study the impact of other sources of uncertainty in the supernova distance ladder, including Cepheid temperature and metallicity variations, supernova magnitudes and GAIA parallax distances. Using Cepheid data in 19 Type Ia supernova host galaxies from Riess et al (2016), anc…
The current tension between the direct and the early Universe measurements of the Hubble Constant, $H_0$, requires detailed scrutiny of all the data and methods used in the studies on both sides of the debate. The Cepheids in the type Ia supernova (SNIa) host galaxy NGC 5584 played a key role in the local measurement of $H_0$. The SH0ES project used the observations of this galaxy to derive a relation between Cepheids' periods and ratios of their amplitudes in different optical bands of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and used these relations to analyse the light curves of the Cepheids in ar…
We present an expanded sample of 75 Milky Way Cepheids with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) photometry and Gaia EDR3 parallaxes which we use to recalibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and refine the determination of the Hubble constant. All HST observations were obtained with the same instrument (WFC3) and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) used for imaging of extragalactic Cepheids in Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) hosts. The HST observations used the WFC3 spatial scanning mode to mitigate saturation and reduce pixel-to-pixel calibration errors, reaching a mean photometric error of 5 millimags per o…
We report observations of 240 Cepheid variables obtained with the Near Infrared Camera (NICMOS) through the F160W filter on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The Cepheids are distributed across six recent hosts of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the "maser galaxy" NGC 4258, allowing us to directly calibrate the peak luminosities of the SNe Ia from the precise, geometric distance measurements provided by the masers. New features of our measurement include the use of the same instrument for all Cepheid measurements across the distance ladder and homogeneity of the Cepheid periods and metalliciti…
We discuss the impact of possible differences in the slope of the Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation on the determination of extragalactic distances in the context of recent studies that suggest changes in this slope. We show that the Wesenheit function W = V - R x ((V-I), widely used for the determination of Cepheid distances, is expected to be highly insensitive to changes in the slope of the underlying (monochromatic) Period-Luminosity (PL) relations. This occurs because the reddening trajectories in the color-magnitude plane are closely parallel to lines of constant period. As a result W-b…
Extending the cosmic distance ladder two orders of magnitude with strongly lensed Cepheids, carbon AGB, and RGB stars
Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-UC)（坎塔布里亚物理研究所）；Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian（哈佛与史密森尼天体物理中心）；School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学地球与空间探索学院）
Selection effects in correlated observations with application to distance-ladder observations
Waterloo Centre for Astrophysics, University of Waterloo（滑铁卢天体物理中心，滑铁卢大学）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo（物理学与天文学系，滑铁卢大学）；Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics（基础物理研究所）
The three rung distance ladder, which calibrates Type Ia supernovae through stellar distances linked to geometric measurements, provides the highest precision direct measurement of the Hubble constant. In light of the Hubble tension, it is important to test the individual components of the distance ladder. For this purpose, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant from 35 extragalactic Cepheid hosts measured by the SH0ES team, using their distances and redshifts at cz < 3300 km /s , instead of any, more distant Type Ia supernovae, to measure the Hubble flow. The Cepheid distances are cal…
Estimates of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from the distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) differ at the $\sim$3-$σ$ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology. Interpreting this tension correctly requires a model comparison calculation depending on not only the traditional `$n$-$σ$' mismatch but also the tails of the likelihoods. Determining the form of the tails of the local $H_0$ likelihood is impossible with the standard Gaussian least-squares approximation, as it requires using non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully represent anchor likelihoo…
The cosmological distance ladder crucially depends on classical Cepheids (with P=3-80 days), which are primary distance indicators up to 33 Mpc. Within this volume, very few SNe Ia have been calibrated through classical Cepheids, with uncertainty related to the non-linearity and the metallicity dependence of their period-luminosity (PL) relation. Although a general consensus on these effects is still not achieved, classical Cepheids remain the most used primary distance indicators. A possible extension of these standard candles to further distances would be important. In this context, a very p…
The discrepancy between the values of the Hubble constant $H_0$ derived from the local distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background provides a tantalising hint of new physics. We explore a potential resolution involving screened fifth forces in the local Universe, which alter the Cepheid calibration of supernova distances. In particular, if the Cepheids with direct distance measurements from parallax or water masers are screened but a significant fraction of those in other galaxies are not, neglecting the difference between their underlying period--luminosity relations biases the local …
Classical Cepheids are primary distance indicators and a crucial stepping stone to determining the present-day Hubble constant Ho to the precision and accuracy required to constrain apparent deviations from the LCDM Concordance Cosmological Model. We have measured the iron and oxygen abundances of of 89 Cepheids in the LMC, one of the anchors of the local Distance Scale, quadrupling the prior sample and including 68 of the 70 Cepheids used to constrain Ho by the SH0ES program. The goal is to constrain the extent to which the Cepheid luminosity is influenced by their chemical composition, an im…
One of the outstanding problems in modern physics is the origin is of accelerated expansion of the universe. High-precision determinations of the Hubble parameter $\mbox{H}_0$ at different redshifts provide direct insight into the Universe expansion: equation of state of the Dark Energy, geometry and curvature of space, sum of neutrino masses and isotropy of the Universe. We investigate the effect of chemical composition on the classical distance ladder based on Cepheids stars and Supernovae type Ia. Cepheids belonging to Magellanic Clouds represent a natural anchor for the ladder, due to thei…
Two per cent measurement of $H_0$ from Cepheids alone
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Portsmouth（朴茨茅斯大学）；Imperial College（帝国理工学院）；CNRS & Sorbonne Université（法国国家科学研究中心与索邦大学）；Stockholm University（斯德哥尔摩大学）
We present an improved determination of the Hubble constant (H0) from Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations of 70 long-period Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud. These were obtained with the same WFC3 photometric system used to measure Cepheids in the hosts of Type Ia supernovae. Gyroscopic control of HST was employed to reduce overheads while collecting a large sample of widely-separated Cepheids. The Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation provides a zeropoint-free link with 0.4% precision between the new 1.2% geometric distance to the LMC from Detached Eclipsing Binaries (DEBs) measured …
We present HST photometry of a selected sample of 50 long-period, low-extinction Milky Way Cepheids measured on the same WFC3 F555W, F814W, and F160W-band photometric system as extragalactic Cepheids in SN Ia hosts. These bright Cepheids were observed with the WFC3 spatial scanning mode in the optical and near-infrared to mitigate saturation and reduce pixel-to-pixel calibration errors to reach a mean photometric error of 5 millimags per observation. We use the new Gaia DR2 parallaxes and HST photometry to simultaneously constrain the cosmic distance scale and to measure the DR2 parallax zerop…
Distance-Ladder Measurements of the Hubble Constant: Recent Progress, Systematics, and Prospects
National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院国家天文台）；Institute for Frontiers in Astronomy and Astrophysics, Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学前沿交叉科学研究院）；School of Astronomy and Space Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学天文与空间科学学院）
The construction of the Cosmicflows-2 compendium of distances involves the merging of distance measures contributed by the following methods: (Cepheid) Period-Luminosity, Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB), Surface Brightness Fluctuation (SBF), Luminosity-Linewidth (TF), Fundamental Plane (FP), and Type Ia supernova (SNIa). The method involving SNIa is at the top of an interconnected ladder, providing accurate distances to well beyond the expected range of distortions to Hubble flow from peculiar motions. In this paper, the SNIa scale is anchored by 36 TF spirals with Cepheid or TRGB distances…
Future precision measurements of CMB polarizations can shed new light on the problem so called Hubble tension. The Hubble tension comes from the difference of the evolutions of the Hubble parameter which are determined with two different distance ladders. The standard distance ladder with the observation of Cepheid variables and type Ia supernovae gives larger values of the Hubble constant, and the inverse distance ladder with the observation of the baryon acoustic oscillations both in the CMB and in the clustering of galaxies gives smaller values of the Hubble constant. These different evolut…
Forward-modelling Milky Way Cepheids: selection effects and physical priors in the Gaia-HST calibration
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；University of Portsmouth（朴茨茅斯大学）；CNRS & Sorbonne Université（法国国家科学研究中心与索邦大学）；Duke University（杜克大学）
In the era of precision cosmology it has became crucial to find new and competitive probes to estimate cosmological parameters, in an effort of finding answers to the current cosmological tensions/discrepancies. In this work, we show the possibility of using observations of Super Massive Black Hole (SMBH) shadows as an anchor for the distance ladder, substituting the sources usually exploited for such purpose, such as Cepheid variable stars. Compared to the standard approaches, the use of SMBH has the advantage of not needing to be anchored with distance calibrators outside the Hubble flow sin…
Context. The precise determination of the present-day expansion rate of the Universe, expressed through the Hubble constant $H_0$, is one of the most pressing challenges in modern cosmology. Assuming flat $Λ$CDM, $H_0$ inference at high redshift using cosmic-microwave-background data from Planck disagrees at the 4.4$σ$ level with measurements based on the local distance ladder made up of parallaxes, Cepheids and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), often referred to as "Hubble tension". Independent, cosmological-model-insensitive ways to infer $H_0$ are of critical importance. Aims. We apply an invers…
The extragalactic distance scale is perhaps the most important application of stellar distance indicators. Among these, classical Cepheids are high-accuracy standard candles that support a $1.4\%$ measurement of Hubble's constant, $H_0$. The accuracy of Cepheid distances is thus directly relevant for understanding the implications of the Hubble tension, the $>5σ$ discord among direct, late-Universe $H_0$ measurements and $H_0$ values inferred from the early Universe observations assuming $Λ$CDM cosmology. This invited review aims to provide an accessible overview of the state of the art distan…
We present Period-Luminosity Relations (PLRs) for 55 Cepheids in M31 with periods ranging from 4 to 78 days observed with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) using the same three-band photometric system recently used to calibrate their luminosities. Images were taken with the Wide Field Camera 3 in two optical filters (F555W and F814W) and one near-infrared filter (F160W) using the Drift And SHift (DASH) mode of operation to significantly reduce overheads and observe widely-separated Cepheids in a single orbit. We include additional F160W epochs for each Cepheid from the Panchromatic Hubble Andro…
The Hubble constant ($H_0$) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova (SN) distance ladder is in 3-$σ$ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent $H_0$ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse di…
We assess the robustness of the two highest rungs of the "cosmic distance ladder" for Type Ia supernovae and the determination of the Hubble-Lemaître constant. In this analysis, we hold fixed Rung 1 as the distance to the LMC determined to 1 % using Detached Eclipsing Binary stars. For Rung 2 we analyze two methods, the TRGB and Cepheid distances for the luminosity calibration of Type Ia supernovae in nearby galaxies. For Rung 3 we analyze various modern digital supernova samples in the Hubble flow, such as the Calán-Tololo, CfA, CSP, and Supercal datasets. This metadata analysis demonstrates …
The local distance ladder measurement of the Hubble constant requires a connection between geometric distances at low redshift and Type Ia supernovae in the Hubble flow, which may be achieved through either the Cepheid period--luminosity relation or the luminosity of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB) feature of the Hertzsprung--Russell diagram. Any potential solution to the Hubble tension that works by altering the distance ladder must produce consistency of both the Cepheid and TRGB $H_0$ calibrations with the CMB. In this paper we extend our models of screened fifth forces (Desmond et a…
We present an overview of the Carnegie-Chicago Hubble Program, an ongoing program to obtain a 3 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant using alternative methods to the traditional Cepheid distance scale. We aim to establish a completely independent route to the Hubble constant using RR Lyrae variables, the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB), and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). This alternative distance ladder can be applied to galaxies of any Hubble Type, of any inclination, and, utilizing old stars in low density environments, is robust to the degenerate effects of metallicity and interstel…
The Hubble tension seems to be a crisis with $\sim5σ$ discrepancy between the most recent local distance ladder measurement from type Ia supernovae calibrated by Cepheids and the global fitting constraint from the cosmic microwave background data. To narrow down the possible late-time solutions to the Hubble tension, we have used in a recent study [Phys. Rev. D 105, L021301 (2022)] an improved inverse distance ladder method calibrated by the absolute measurements of the Hubble expansion rate at high redshifts from the cosmic chronometer data, and found no appealing evidence for new physics at …
Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are among preeminent distance ladders for precision cosmology due to their intrinsic brightness, which allows them to be observable at high redshifts. Their usefulness as unbiased estimators of absolute cosmological distances however depends on accurate understanding of their intrinsic brightness, or anchoring their distance scale. This knowledge is based on calibrating their distances with Cepheids. Gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences, being standard sirens, can be used to validate distances to SNe Ia, when both occur in the same galaxy or galaxy c…
We reanalyze the recently released SH0ES data for the determination of $H_0$. We focus on testing the homogeneity of the Cepheid+SnIa sample and the robustness of the results in the presence of new degrees of freedom in the modeling of Cepheids and SnIa. We thus focus on the four modeling parameters of the analysis: the fiducial luminosity of SnIa $M_B$ and Cepheids $M_W$ and the two parameters ($b_W$ and $Z_W$) standardizing Cepheid luminosities with period and metallicity. After reproducing the SH0ES baseline model results, we allow for a transition of the value of any one of these parameter…
We re-analyze the Cepheid data used to infer the value of $H_0$ by calibrating SnIa. We do not enforce a universal value of the empirical Cepheid calibration parameters $R_W$ (Cepheid Wesenheit color-luminosity parameter) and $M_H^{W}$ (Cepheid Wesenheit H-band absolute magnitude). Instead, we allow for variation of either of these parameters for each individual galaxy. We also consider the case where these parameters have two universal values: one for low galactic distances $D<D_c$ and one for high galactic distances $D>D_c$ where $D_c$ is a critical transition distance. We find hints for a $…
The current Cepheid-calibrated distance ladder measurement of $H_0$ is reported to be in tension with the values inferred from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), assuming standard cosmology. However, some tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) estimates report $H_0$ in better agreement with the CMB. Hence, it is critical to reduce systematic uncertainties in local measurements to understand the Hubble tension. In this paper, we propose a uniform distance ladder between the second and third rungs, combining SNe~Ia observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) with a TRGB calibration of their …
Tip of the Red Giant Branch Distances to NGC 1316, NGC 1380, NGC 1404, & NGC 4457: A Pilot Study of a Parallel Distance Ladder Using Type Ia Supernovae in Early-Type Host Galaxies
本研究利用红巨星支尖距离校准大质量宁静早型星系中的Ia型超新星，构建平行距离阶梯，测得哈勃常数为75.3±2.9 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹，验证了属性匹配子样本在宇宙学研究中的应用潜力。
We present year-long, near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 observations of Mira variables in the water megamaser host galaxy NGC 4258. Miras are AGB variables that can be divided into oxygen- (O-) and carbon- (C-) rich subclasses. Oxygen-rich Miras follow a tight (scatter $\sim 0.14$ mag) Period-Luminosity Relation (PLR) in the near-infrared and can be used to measure extragalactic distances. The water megamaser in NGC 4258 gives a geometric distance to the galaxy accurate to 2.6% that can serve to calibrate the Mira PLR. We develop criteria for detecting and classifying O-rich Miras with…
Progressive increases in the precision of the Hubble-constant measurement via Cepheid-calibrated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have shown a discrepancy of $\sim 4.4σ$ with the current value inferred from Planck satellite measurements of the cosmic microwave background radiation and the standard $Λ$CDM cosmological model. This disagreement does not appear to be due to known systematic errors and may therefore be hinting at new fundamental physics. Although all of the current techniques have their own merits, further improvement in constraining the Hubble constant requires the development of as ma…
