发表机构
Waterloo Centre for Astrophysics, University of Waterloo; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo; Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics（滑铁卢天体物理中心，滑铁卢大学; 物理学与天文学系，滑铁卢大学; 基础物理研究所）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
研究相关观测中的选择效应，推导截断选择似然性，通过造父变星亮度测量寻找残余选择效应，发现校正证据弱，不同处理方式对哈勃常数\(H_0\)有影响，新校正或为哈勃张力多方面解决方案一部分。
AI 中文摘要
一个多世纪以来，自爱丁顿、卡普坦、马尔姆奎斯特等人的工作之后，天文学家在从物体样本进行推断时一直纠结于选择偏差。通常选择是基于用于进行相关测量的相同观测。然而，当观测相关时，用一个可观测值选择物体而分析另一个可观测值也会导致选择偏差。在贝叶斯框架下，未建模的选择效应对应于错误指定的生成模型。我们推导了相关观测中截断选择的似然性，并通过在哈勃常数\(H_0\)近期距离阶梯测量中使用的造父变星亮度测量中寻找这种形式的残余选择效应来证明其有用性。我们特别寻找选择校正依赖于光度不确定性的偏差形式，造父变星数据在测量\(H_0\)时可对其进行约束。我们发现非零残余选择校正的证据很弱，显著性为\((1.2\sigma)\)到\((1.9\sigma)\)，取决于采用的距离先验。包含一个额外参数来模拟未知截止值会使恢复的\(H_0\)降低\(-0.7km/s/Mpc\)到\(-1.1km/s/Mpc\)，同样取决于距离先验。对每个宿主星系采用不同选择可进一步降低\(H_0\)，不过这对应用的距离先验非常敏感。虽然引入新的选择校正本身不能解释哈勃张力，但它可能是包括距离先验选择和其他效应在内的多方面解决方案的一个组成部分。
英文摘要
For over a century, following the work of Eddington, Kapteyn, Malmquist and others, astronomers have wrestled with selection biases when making inferences from samples of objects. Typically, selection is performed on the same observations used to make the measurements of interest. However, selecting objects using one observable while analyzing another can also lead to a selection bias when the observables are correlated. Within a Bayesian framework, unmodelled selection effects correspond to a misspecified generative model. We derive the likelihood for truncated selection in correlated observables and demonstrate its usefulness by searching for residual selection effects of this form in recent distance ladder measurements of the Hubble constant H0. We specifically look for the form of bias in Cepheid selection where the correction depends on the photometric uncertainties, which the data can constrain while simultaneously measuring H0. We find mild evidence for non-zero residual selection corrections for Cepheids within calibrator galaxies at a significance of 1.3sigma to 2.3sigma depending on the distance-prior adopted, but find that allowing for them does potentially have an appreciable effect on H0. Including a single extra parameter to model the unknown cut-off in Cepheid selection in SN Ia host galaxies lowers the recovered H0 by -1.4km/s/Mpc. Including further selection corrections for the SN Ia samples decreases the recovered H0 by -0.2km/s/Mpc, while using an equal-volume distance prior rather than one uniform in distance modulus reduces H0 by -1.0km/s/Mpc. When included together, these effects substantially reduce the inferred tension with CMB measurements.
Comments15 pages, 5 figures, comments welcome
