Clarifying the Hubble constant tension with a Bayesian hierarchical model of the local distance ladder
Stephen M. Feeney, Daniel J. Mortlock, Niccolò Dalmasso
备注：
24 pages, 14 figures, matches version submitted to MNRAS. The model code used in this analysis is available for download at https://github.com/sfeeney/hh0
Estimates of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from the distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) differ at the $\sim$3-$σ$ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology. Interpreting this tension correctly requires a model comparison calculation depending on not only the traditional `$n$-$σ$' mismatch but also the tails of the likelihoods. Determining the form of the tails of the local $H_0$ likelihood is impossible with the standard Gaussian least-squares approximation, as it requires using non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully represent anchor likelihoods and model outliers in the Cepheid and supernova (SN) populations, and simultaneous fitting of the full distance-ladder dataset to correctly propagate uncertainties. We have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the full distance ladder, from nearby geometric anchors through Cepheids to Hubble-Flow SNe. This model does not rely on any distributions being Gaussian, allowing outliers to be modeled and obviating the need for arbitrary data cuts. Sampling from the $\sim$3000-parameter joint posterior using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we find $H_0$ = (72.72 $\pm$ 1.67) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ when applied to the outlier-cleaned Riess et al. (2016) data, and ($73.15 \pm 1.78$) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ with SN outliers reintroduced. Our high-fidelity sampling of the low-$H_0$ tail of the distance-ladder likelihood allows us to apply Bayesian model comparison to assess the evidence for deviation from $Λ$CDM. We set up this comparison to yield a lower limit on the odds of the underlying model being $Λ$CDM given the distance-ladder and Planck XIII (2016) CMB data. The odds against $Λ$CDM are at worst 10:1 or 7:1, depending on whether the SNe outliers are cut or modeled, or 60:1 if an approximation to the Planck Int. XLVI (2016) likelihood is used.
Future precision measurements of CMB polarizations can shed new light on the problem so called Hubble tension. The Hubble tension comes from the difference of the evolutions of the Hubble parameter which are determined with two different distance ladders. The standard distance ladder with the observation of Cepheid variables and type Ia supernovae gives larger values of the Hubble constant, and the inverse distance ladder with the observation of the baryon acoustic oscillations both in the CMB and in the clustering of galaxies gives smaller values of the Hubble constant. These different evolut…
The Hubble constant ($H_0$) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova (SN) distance ladder is in 3-$σ$ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent $H_0$ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse di…
The Hubble tension seems to be a crisis with $\sim5σ$ discrepancy between the most recent local distance ladder measurement from type Ia supernovae calibrated by Cepheids and the global fitting constraint from the cosmic microwave background data. To narrow down the possible late-time solutions to the Hubble tension, we have used in a recent study [Phys. Rev. D 105, L021301 (2022)] an improved inverse distance ladder method calibrated by the absolute measurements of the Hubble expansion rate at high redshifts from the cosmic chronometer data, and found no appealing evidence for new physics at …
In a recent paper, we investigated possible systematic uncertainties related to the Cepheid color-luminosity calibration method and their influence on the tension between the Hubble constant as inferred from distances to Type Ia supernovae and the cosmic microwave background as measured with the Planck satellite. Here, we study the impact of other sources of uncertainty in the supernova distance ladder, including Cepheid temperature and metallicity variations, supernova magnitudes and GAIA parallax distances. Using Cepheid data in 19 Type Ia supernova host galaxies from Riess et al (2016), anc…
The discrepancy between the values of the Hubble constant $H_0$ derived from the local distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background provides a tantalising hint of new physics. We explore a potential resolution involving screened fifth forces in the local Universe, which alter the Cepheid calibration of supernova distances. In particular, if the Cepheids with direct distance measurements from parallax or water masers are screened but a significant fraction of those in other galaxies are not, neglecting the difference between their underlying period--luminosity relations biases the local …
Recent determination of the Hubble constant via Cepheid-calibrated supernovae by \citet{riess_2.4_2016} (R16) find $\sim 3σ$ tension with inferences based on cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization measurements from $Planck$. This tension could be an indication of inadequacies in the concordance $Λ$CDM model. Here we investigate the possibility that the discrepancy could instead be due to systematic bias or uncertainty in the Cepheid calibration step of the distance ladder measurement by R16. We consider variations in total-to-selective extinction of Cepheid flux as a function…
The measurements of the Hubble constant reveal a tension between high-redshift (CMB) and low-redshift (distance ladder) constraints. So far neither observational systematics nor new physics has been successfully implemented to explain this tension away. This paper present a new solution to the Hubble constant problem. The solution is based on the Simsilun simulation (relativistic simulation of the large scale structure of the Universe) with the ray-tracing algorithm implemented. The initial conditions for the Simsilun simulation were set up as perturbations around the $Λ$CDM model. However, un…
The three rung distance ladder, which calibrates Type Ia supernovae through stellar distances linked to geometric measurements, provides the highest precision direct measurement of the Hubble constant. In light of the Hubble tension, it is important to test the individual components of the distance ladder. For this purpose, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant from 35 extragalactic Cepheid hosts measured by the SH0ES team, using their distances and redshifts at cz < 3300 km /s , instead of any, more distant Type Ia supernovae, to measure the Hubble flow. The Cepheid distances are cal…
Over the last few years, low- and high-redshift observations set off a tension in the measurement of the present-day expansion rate, $H_0$. Adding to the riddle, observational data from the Planck mission point to a $3.4σ$ evidence for a closed universe, further challenging the $Λ$CDM concordance model of cosmology. Recently, a direct-observational test has been proposed to discriminate effects of the spatial curvature in the cosmological model. The test is based on the fundamental distance--flux--redshift relation of the luminosity distance modulus, $Δμ$. We reexamine the outcomes of this tes…
Measurements of the Hubble parameter from the distance ladder are in tension with indirect measurements based on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and the inverse distance ladder measurements at 3-4 $σ$ level. We consider phenomenological modification to the timing and width of the recombination process and show that they can significantly affect this tension. This possibility is appealing, because such modification affects both the distance to the last scattering surface and the calibration of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) ruler. Moreover, because only a very small fraction …
Context. The precise determination of the present-day expansion rate of the Universe, expressed through the Hubble constant $H_0$, is one of the most pressing challenges in modern cosmology. Assuming flat $Λ$CDM, $H_0$ inference at high redshift using cosmic-microwave-background data from Planck disagrees at the 4.4$σ$ level with measurements based on the local distance ladder made up of parallaxes, Cepheids and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), often referred to as "Hubble tension". Independent, cosmological-model-insensitive ways to infer $H_0$ are of critical importance. Aims. We apply an invers…
Revisiting model-independent constraints on spatial curvature and cosmic ladders calibration: updated and forecast analyses
Università di Roma Tor Vergata（罗马托尔维加塔大学）；INFN, Sezione di Roma 2（意大利国家核物理研究所罗马第二分部）；Università di Roma La Sapienza（罗马第一大学）；Universitat de Barcelona (UB)（巴塞罗那大学）；Institut de Ciències del Cosmos (ICCUB)（宇宙科学研究所）
Recent work by Efstathiou (2014) highlighted the importance of outliers in the period-luminosity (PL) relation of Cepheid data on the distance ladder. We present a statistical framework designed to address this difficulty, and apply it to the Cepheid data from the Milky Way (MW), the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), and the Riess et al. (2011) (hereafter R11) dataset. We consider two possible models of the outlier population in the R11 Cepheid dataset. One of these models exhibits tension between the PL relation of the R11 cepheids and the MW+LMC cepheids, while the other does not. We extend our …
The observed tension ($\sim 9\%$ difference) between the local distance ladder measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, and its value inferred from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could hint at new, exotic, cosmological physics. We test the impact of the assumption about the expansion history of the universe ($0.01<z<2.3$) on the local distance ladder estimate of $H_0$. In the fiducial analysis, the Hubble flow Type Ia supernova (SN~Ia) sample is truncated to $z < 0.15$ and the deceleration parameter ($q_0$) fixed to -0.55. We create realistic simulations of the calibrator and Pantheon…
The cosmic distance ladder is the succession of techniques by which it is possible to determine distances to astronomical objects. Here, we present a new method to build the cosmic distance ladder, going from local astrophysical measurements to the CMB. Instead of relying on high-redshift cosmography in order to model the luminosity-distance relation and calibrate supernovae with BAO, we exploit directly the distance-duality relation $d_L = (1+z)^2 d_A$---valid if photon number is conserved and gravity is described by a metric theory. The advantage is that the results will not depend on the pa…
Local measurements of the Hubble parameter obtained from the distance ladder at low redshift are in tension with global values inferred from cosmological standard rulers. A key role in the tension is played by the assumptions on the cosmological history, in particular on the origin of dark energy. Here we consider a scenario where dark energy originates from the amplification of quantum fluctuations of a light field in inflation. We show that spatial correlations inherited from inflationary quantum fluctuations can reduce the Hubble tension down to one standard deviation, thus relieving the pr…
This paper investigates whether changes to late time physics can resolve the `Hubble tension'. It is argued that many of the claims in the literature favouring such solutions are caused by a misunderstanding of how distance ladder measurements actually work and, in particular, by the inappropriate use of a distance ladder H0 prior. A dynamics-free inverse distance ladder shows that changes to late time physics are strongly constrained observationally and cannot resolve the discrepancy between the SH0ES data and the base LCDM cosmology inferred from Planck. We propose a statistically rigorous s…
How does a smooth cosmic distance ladder emerge from observations made from a single location in a lumpy Universe? Distances to Type Ia supernovae in the Hubble flow are anchored on local distance measurements to sources that are very nearby. We described how this configuration could be built in a perturbed universe where lumpiness is described as small perturbations on top of a flat Friedmann-Lemaıtre Robertson-Walker spacetime. We show that there is a non-negligible modification (about 11\%) to the background Friedmann-Lemaıtre Robertson-Walker area distance due to the presence of inhomogene…
Recent distance ladder determinations of the Hubble constant $H_0$ disagree at about the $3.5σ$ level with the value determined from Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) assuming a $Λ$CDM cosmology. This discrepancy has prompted speculation that new physics might be required beyond that assumed in the $Λ$CDM model. In this paper, we apply the inverse distance ladder to fit a parametric form of $H(z)$ to baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and Type Ia supernova data together with priors on the sound horizon at the end of the radiation drag epoch, $r_d$. We apply priors on …
The E-mode (EE) CMB power spectra measured by Planck, ACTPol, and SPTpol constrain the Hubble constant to be $70.0\pm2.7$, $72.4^{+3.9}_{-4.8}$, and $73.1^{+3.3}_{-3.9}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ within the standard $Λ$CDM model (posterior mean and central 68% interval bounds). These values are higher than the constraints from the Planck temperature (TT) power spectrum, and consistent with the Cepheid-supernova distance ladder measurement $H_0=73.2\pm1.3$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. If this preference for a higher value was strengthened in a joint analysis it could provide an intriguing hint at the r…
Ningbo University（宁波大学）；Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)（中国科学院理论物理研究所）；Asia Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics (APCTP)（亚太理论物理中心）
We use the largest sample to date of spectroscopic SN Ia distances and redshifts to look for evidence in the Hubble diagram of large scale outflows caused by local voids suggested to exist at z<0.15. Our sample combines data from the Pantheon sample with the Foundation survey and the most recent release of lightcurves from the Carnegie Supernova Project to create a sample of 1295 SNe over a redshift range of 0.01<z<2.26. We make use of an inhomogeneous and isotropic Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi metric to model a void in the SN Ia distance-redshift relation. We conclude that the SN luminosity distance…
We present here a lightning review of the status of the Hubble-Lemaître tension. Instead of discussing the broad array of proposed solutions found in the literature, we focus here on the assumptions made to measure the Hubble constant from cosmic microwave background and baryon acoustic oscillation data on the one hand, and from a cepheid-calibrated distance ladder on the other hand. From this discussion, we extract two important lessons that inform which kind of physics-based solutions could plausibly resolve this tension.
The Hubble tension, if not caused by any systematics, could be relieved or even resolved from modifying either the early-time or late-time Universe. The early-time modifications are usually in tension with either galaxy clustering or galaxy lensing constraints. The late-time modifications are also in conflict with the constraint from the inverse distance ladder, which, however, is weakened by the dependence on a sound-horizon prior and some particular approximation for the late-time expansion history. To achieve a more general no-go argument for the late-time scenarios, we propose to use a glo…
We present a measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) and other cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of six gravitationally lensed quasars with measured time delays. All lenses except the first are analyzed blindly with respect to the cosmological parameters. In a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, we find $H_{0} = 73.3_{-1.8}^{+1.7}$, a 2.4% precision measurement, in agreement with local measurements of $H_{0}$ from type Ia supernovae calibrated by the distance ladder, but in $3.1σ$ tension with $Planck$ observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). This method is completely indepen…
In the era of precision cosmology it has became crucial to find new and competitive probes to estimate cosmological parameters, in an effort of finding answers to the current cosmological tensions/discrepancies. In this work, we show the possibility of using observations of Super Massive Black Hole (SMBH) shadows as an anchor for the distance ladder, substituting the sources usually exploited for such purpose, such as Cepheid variable stars. Compared to the standard approaches, the use of SMBH has the advantage of not needing to be anchored with distance calibrators outside the Hubble flow sin…
Using sedimentary and eclipse-based measurements of the lunar recession velocity, we derive a new local-Universe measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) from the recession rate of Earth's Moon. Taking into account the effects of tides, we find a value of $H_{0}$ = 63.01 $\pm$ 1.79 km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, which is in approximate agreement with the Planck space mission's measurement using the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and base $Λ$CDM. Our new measurement represents the first ever model-independent, single-step measurement of the Universe's current expansion rate. This is also the firs…
The $Λ$CDM model provides a good fit to most astronomical observations but harbors large areas of phenomenology and ignorance. With the improvements in the precision and number of observations, discrepancies between key cosmological parameters of this model have emerged. Among them, the most notable tension is the 4$σ$ to 6$σ$ deviation between the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) estimations measured by the local distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurement. In this review, we revisit the $H_{0}$ tension based on the latest research and sort out evidence from solutions to th…
We present an expanded sample of 75 Milky Way Cepheids with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) photometry and Gaia EDR3 parallaxes which we use to recalibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and refine the determination of the Hubble constant. All HST observations were obtained with the same instrument (WFC3) and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) used for imaging of extragalactic Cepheids in Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) hosts. The HST observations used the WFC3 spatial scanning mode to mitigate saturation and reduce pixel-to-pixel calibration errors, reaching a mean photometric error of 5 millimags per o…
The combination of Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data together with light element abundance measurements from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) has been shown to constrain the cosmological expansion history to an unprecedented degree. Using the newest LUNA data and DR16 data from SDSS, the BAO+BBN probe puts tight constraints on the Hubble parameter ($H_0 = 67.6 \pm 1.0 \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$), resulting in a $3.7σ$ tension with the local distance ladder determination from SH0ES in a $Λ$CDM model. In the updated BAO data the high- and low-redshift subsets are mutually in excellent agreement, an…
The current Cepheid-calibrated distance ladder measurement of $H_0$ is reported to be in tension with the values inferred from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), assuming standard cosmology. However, some tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) estimates report $H_0$ in better agreement with the CMB. Hence, it is critical to reduce systematic uncertainties in local measurements to understand the Hubble tension. In this paper, we propose a uniform distance ladder between the second and third rungs, combining SNe~Ia observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) with a TRGB calibration of their …
The strong discrepancy between local and inverse distance ladder estimates of the Hubble constant $H_0$ could be pointing towards new physics beyond $Λ$CDM. Several attempts to address this tension through new physics rely on extended models, featuring extra free parameters beyond the 6 $Λ$CDM parameters. However, marginalizing over extra parameters has the effect of broadening the uncertainties on the inferred parameters, and it is often the case that within these models the $H_0$ tension is addressed due to larger uncertainties rather than a genuine shift in the central value of $H_0$. What …
We investigate constraints on the Hubble constant ($H_0$) using Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and baryon density measurements from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN). We start by investigating the tension between galaxy BAO measurements and those using the Lyman-$α$ forest, within a Bayesian framework. Using the latest results from eBOSS DR14 we find that the probability of this tension being statistical is $\simeq6.3\%$ assuming flat $Λ$CDM. We measure $H_0 = 67.6\pm1.1$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, with a weak dependence on the BBN prior used, in agreement with results from Planck Cosmic Microwa…
We examine the impact of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale measurements on the discrepancy between the value of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) inferred from the local distance ladder and from Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. While the BAO data alone cannot constrain $H_0$, we show that combining the latest BAO results with WMAP, Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), or South Pole Telescope (SPT) CMB data produces values of $H_0$ that are $2.4-3.1σ$ lower than the distance ladder, independent of Planck, and that this downward pull was less apparent in some earlier analyses that us…
The Hubble tension is investigated taking into account the cosmological look-back time. Specifically, considering a single equation, widely used in standard cosmology, it is possible to recover both values of the Hubble constant $H_0$ reported by the SH0ES and Planck collaborations: the former is obtained through cosmological ladder methods (e.g. Cepheids, Supernovae Type IA) and the latter through measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background. Also, other values obtained in the literature are achieved with the same approach. We conclude that the Hubble tension can be removed if the look-bac…
Values of the Hubble constant between the direct measurements from various independent local observations and that inferred from the cosmic microwave background with the $Λ$-cold-dark-matter model are in tension with persistent significance. We propose a late-time inhomogeneous resolution suggesting that a chameleon field coupled to a local overdensity of matter could be trapped at a higher potential energy density as an effective cosmological constant driving the local expansion rate faster than that of the background with lower matter density. We illustrate this mechanism in a toy model in w…
Recent measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by the Planck Collaboration have produced arguably the most powerful observational evidence in support of the standard model of cosmology, i.e. the spatially flat $Λ$CDM paradigm. In this work, we perform model selection tests to examine whether the base CMB temperature and large scale polarization anisotropy data from Planck 2015 (P15) prefer any of eight commonly used one-parameter model extensions with respect to flat $Λ$CDM. We find a clear preference for models with free curvature, $Ω_\mathrm{K}$, or free amplitude of the CMB le…
Statistical analyses of the measurements of the Hubble-Lemaître constant $H_0$ (163 measurements between 1976 and 2019) show that the statistical error bars associated with the observed parameter measurements have been underestimated -- or the systematic errors were not properly taken into account -- in at least 15-20\% of the measurements. The fact that the underestimation of error bars for $H_0$ is so common might explain the apparent discrepancy of values, which is formally known today as the Hubble tension. Here we have carried out a recalibration of the probabilities with this sample of m…
