Analysis of synoptic data from the Vector Stokes Magnetograph (VSM) of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) and the NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) at the NSO/Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope facility shows that the reversals of solar polar magnetic fields exhibit elements of a stochastic process, which may include the development of specific patterns of emerging magnetic flux, and the asymmetry in activity between northern and southern hemispheres. The presence of such irregularities makes the modeling and prediction of polar field reversals extremely hard if possible. In a classical model of solar activity cycle, the unipolar magnetic regions (UMRs) of predominantly following polarity fields are transported polewards due to meridional flows and diffusion. The UMRs gradually cancel out the polar magnetic field of the previous cycle, and re-build the polar field of opposite polarity setting the stage for the next cycle. We show, however, that this deterministic picture can be easily altered by the developing of a strong center of activity, or by the emergence of an extremely large active region, or by a "strategically placed" coronal hole. We demonstrate that the activity occurring during the current cycle 24 may be the result of this randomness in the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field.
Polarity Reversal of the Polar Magnetic Fields in Solar Cycle 25
National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院国家天文台）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；China Meteorological Administration（中国气象局）；Innovation Center for FengYun Meteorological Satellite（风云气象卫星创新中心）
This paper considers the changes of average number of sunspots groups per day, aggregated by activity cycles Gn within the period since 1610 till present time. The relation of parameter Gn of the preceding and the following activity cycles has a long-term variation with the period of about 20 activity cycles. There is a positive correlation between the parameter Gn in the current cycle and analogous parameter in the following cycle Gn+1. For cycles N 10-21 for a pair of even and odd cycles the relation of parameter Gn corresponds to Gnevyshev-Ohl rule Godd/Geven>1. But in previous epochs the o…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with angular width $> 30^{\circ}$ have been observed to occur at a higher rate during solar cycle 24 compared to cycle 23, per sunspot number. This result is supported by data from three independent databases constructed using Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) coronagraph images, two employing automated detection techniques and one compiled manually by human observers. According to the two databases that cover a larger field of view, the enhanced CME rate actually began shortly after the cycle 23 polar field reversal, in 2004, when the p…
Aims: To investigate solar polar fields during cycle 24, using measurements of solar magnetic fields in the latitude range 55 - 90 degree and 78 - 90 degree, to report a prolonged and unusual hemispheric asymmetry in the polar field reversal pattern in solar cycle 24. Methods: This study was carried out using medium resolution line-of-sight synoptic magnetograms from the magnetic database of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak (NSO/KP), USA for the period between February 1975 and October 2017, covering solar cycles 21-24 and high-resolution line-of-sight synoptic magnetograms from the…
Discovery of a relation between the decay rate of the Sun's magnetic dipole and the growth rate of the following sunspot cycle: a new precursor for solar cycle prediction
We model the surface magnetic field and open flux of the Sun from 1913 to 1986 using a surface flux transport model, which includes the observed cycle-to-cycle variation of sunspot group tilts. The model reproduces the empirically derived time evolution of the solar open magnetic flux, and the reversal times of the polar fields. We find that both the polar field and the axial dipole moment resulting from this model around cycle minimum correlate with the strength of the following cycle.
We applied the method of continuous wavelet-transform to the time-frequency analysis to the sets of observations of relative sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and to 6 Mount Wilson HK-project stars with well-defined magnetic cycles. Wavelet analysis of these data reveals the following pattern: at the same time there are several activity cycles whose periods vary widely from the quasi-biennial up to the centennial period for the Sun and vary significant during observations time of the HK-project stars. These relatively low-frequency periodic variations of the solar and stellar activity gradually c…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to disruptions in satellite operations, telecommunications, electric power grids and air-traffic on polar routes. Forecasting the cycle of sunspots, however, has remained a challenging problem. We use reservoir computing -- a model-free, neural--network based machine-learning technique -- to forecast the upcoming solar cycle, sunspot cycle 25. The standard algorithm fo…
As each solar cycle progresses, remnant magnetic flux from active regions (ARs) migrates poleward to cancel the old-cycle polar field. We describe this polarity reversal process during Cycle 24 using four years (2010.33--2014.33) of line-of-sight magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. The total flux associated with ARs reached maximum in the north in 2011, more than two years earlier than the south; the maximum is significantly weaker than Cycle 23. The process of polar field reversal is relatively slow, north-south asymmetric, and episodic. We estimate that the…
Relative variations in the number of sunspots and sunspot groups in activity cycles have been analyzed based on data from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station and international indices. The following regularities have been established: (1) The relative fraction of small sunspots decreases linearly and that of large sunspots increase with increasing activity cycle amplitude. (2) The variation in the average number of sunspots in one group has a trend, and this number decreased from 12 in cycle 19 to 7.5 in cycle 24. (3) The ratio of the sunspot index (Ri) to the sunspot group number ind…
The paper presents the results of the analysis of the geometric characteristics of sunspots for the period of 19-24 cycles of activity. The shape of sunspots was studied on the basis of the method of normalization of images of sunspots to study the average profile of the spot. The deviation of the shape of sunspots from the axisymmetric configuration is investigated. It was found that the spots, as a rule, have an ellipsoid shape, and the major axis of the ellipse has a predominant inclination to the equator, opposite in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The angle of inclination of the su…
Through meticulous daily observation of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) has catalogued two magnetic (Hale) cycles of solar activity. Those two (~22-year long) Hale cycles have yielded four ($\sim$11-year long) sunspot cycles (numbers 21 through 24). Recent research has highlighted the persistence of the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC) and its connection to the fundamental Hale Cycle - albeit through a host of proxies resulting from image analysis of the solar photosphere, chromosphere and corona. This short manuscript presents the correspondence of the ESC,…
The increasing interest in understanding stellar magnetic activity cycles is a strong motivation for the development of parameterized starspot models which can be constrained observationally. In this work we develop an empirical tool for the stochastic reconstruction of sunspot cycles, using the average solar properties as a reference. The synthetic sunspot cycle is compared with the sunspot data extracted from the National Geophysical Data Center, in particular using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This tool yields synthetic spot group records, including date, area, latitude, longitude, rotation…
We have measured the meridional motions of the magnetic elements in the Sun's surface layers since 1996 and find systematic and substantial variations. In general the meridional flow speed is fast at cycle minima and slow at cycle maxima. We find that these systematic variations are characterized by a weakening of the meridional flow on the poleward sides of the active (sunspot) latitudes. This can be interpreted as a inflow toward the sunspot zones superimposed on a more general poleward meridional flow profile. We also find variations in the meridional flow which vary from cycle-to-cycle. Th…
According to Gnevyshev-Ohl (G-O) rule an odd-numbered cycle is stronger than its preceding even-numbered cycle. In the modern time the cycle pair (22, 23) violated this rule. By using the combined Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2015, and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) of sunspot groups during the period 1974-2015, here we have found that the solar cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule because, besides during cycle 23 a large deficiency of small sunspot groups in both the northern and the …
The solar polar fields reverse because magnetic flux from decaying sunspots moves towards the poles, with a preponderance of flux from the trailing spots. Let us assume that there is a strong asymmetry in the sense that all activity is in the Northern Hemisphere, then that excess flux will move to the North Pole and reverse that pole, while nothing happens in the South. If later on, there is a lot of activity in the South, then that flux will help reverse the South Pole. In this way, we get two humps in solar activity and a corresponding difference in time of reversals. Such difference was fir…
In 1965 Paul D. Jose published his discovery that both the motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system and periods comprised of eight Hale magnetic sunspot cycles with a mean period of ~22.37 years have a matching periodicity of ~179 years. We have investigated the implied link between solar barycentric torque cycles and sunspot cycles and have found that the unsigned solar torque values from 1610 to 2057 are consistently phase and magnitude coherent in ~179 year Jose Cycles. We are able to show that there is also a surprisingly high degree of sunspot cycle phase coherence f…
Although the Sun's torsional oscillation is believed to be driven by the Lorentz force associated with the sunspot cycle, this oscillation begins 2--3 yr before the sunspot cycle. We provide a theoretical explanation of this with the help of a solar dynamo model having a meridional circulation penetrating slightly below the bottom of the convection zone, because only in such dynamo models the strong toroidal field forms a few years before the sunspot cycle and at a higher latitude.
Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observation, the quality of sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784--1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18--19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e. the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790's. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793--1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in traditional Wolf's sunspot series.…
We analyze Sun-as-a-star observations spanning over solar cycles 22 -- 24 from the ground-based network BiSON and solar cycles 23 -- 24 collected by the space-based VIRGO and GOLF instruments on board the {\it SoHO} satellite. Using simultaneous observations from all three instruments, our analysis suggests that the structural and magnetic changes responsible for modifying the frequencies remained comparable between cycle 23 and cycle 24 but differ from cycle 22. Thus we infer that the magnetic layer of the Sun has become thinner since the beginning of cycle 23 and continues during the current…
Synoptic magnetograms and relevant proxy data were analyzed to study the evolution of the Sun's polar magnetic fields. Time-latitude analysis of large-scale magnetic fields demonstrates cyclic changes in their zonal structure and the polar-field buildup. The time-latitude distributions of the emergent and remnant magnetic flux enable us to examine individual features of recent cycles. The poleward transport of predominantly following polarities contributed much of the polar flux and led to polar-field reversals. Multiple reversals of dominant polarities at the Sun's poles were identified in Cy…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows …
It has been suggested that the deficit in the number of spots on the surface of the Sun between 1790 and 1830, known as the Dalton minimum, contained an extra cycle that was not identified in the original sunspot record by Wolf. Though this cycle would be shorter and weaker than the average solar cycle, it would shift the magnetic parity of the solar magnetic field of the earlier cycles. This extra cycle is sometimes referred to as the 'lost solar cycle' or 'cycle 4b'. Here we reanalyse Be10 measurements with annual resolution from the NGRIP ice core in Greenland in order to investigate if the…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun's surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble …
The solar activity is asymmetric in both hemispheres in almost all cycles. This asymmetry is observed both in cycle amplitude and period. We have used about 90~years of sunspot-area data from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory to study the North--South asymmetry in sunspot activity. The monthly mean sunspot-area showed the northern hemisphere dominated in Solar Cycles 16, 19, and 20, and the southern hemisphere dominated in Cycles 18, 22, and 23. The 13-months smoothed data indicated that in Cycle 17 and 21, the northern and southern hemisphere showed equal amplitude. Cumulative sunspot area sho…
We analyze the temporal distribution of sunspot groups for even and odd cycles in the range SC12-SC24. It seems that cycle 24 is a characteristic even cycle, although with low amplitude. The number of large sunspot groups for cycle 24 is relatively smaller than for the average of both even and odd cycles SC12-SC23, and there is a deep decline of the large groups in the middle of the cycle. Temporal evolution of the sunspot groups of the even cycles is non-synchronous such that the northern hemisphere distribution of groups maximizes earlier that the southern hemisphere groups. This leads to a …
Empirical rules of solar cycle evolution form important observational constraints for the solar dynamo theory. This includes the Waldmeier rule relating the magnitude of a solar cycle to the length of its ascending phase, and the Gnevyshev--Ohl rule clustering cycles to pairs of an even-numbered cycle followed by a stronger odd-numbered cycle. These rules were established as based on the "classical" Wolf sunspot number series, which has been essentially revisited recently, with several revised sets released by the research community. Here we test the robustness of these empirical rules for dif…
Sizes of the sunspots vary in a wide range during the progression of a solar cycle. Long-term variation study of different sunspot sizes are key to better understand the underlying process of sunspot formation and their connection to the solar dynamo. Kodaikanal white-light digitized archive provides daily sunspot observations for a period of 90 years (1921-2011). Using different size criteria on the detected individual sunspots, we have generated yearly averaged sunspot area time series for the full Sun as well as for the individual hemispheres. In this paper, we have used the sunspot area va…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields change their polarity near the maximum of sunspot activity. We analyzed the polarity reversal epochs in Solar Cycles 21 to 24. There was a triple reversal in the N-hemisphere in Solar Cycle 24 and single reversals in the rest of cases. Epochs of the polarity reversal from measurements of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) are compared with ones when the reversals were completed in the N- and S-hemispheres. The reversal times were compared with hemispherical sunspot activity and with the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) tilts, too. It was found that reversals occ…
In this paper, we explore the evolution of sunspot latitude distribution and explore its relations with the cycle strength. With the progress of the solar cycle, the distributions in two hemispheres from mid-latitudes propagate toward the equator and then (before the usual solar minimum) these two distributions touch each other. By visualizing the evolution of the distributions in two hemispheres, we separate the solar cycles by excluding this hemispheric overlap. From these isolated solar cycles in two hemispheres, we generate latitude distributions for each cycle, starting from cycle 8 to cy…
The Kodaikanal Observatory has made synoptic observations of the Sun in white light since 1904, and these images are sketched on the Stonyhurst grids called sun charts. These continuous hand-drawn data sets are used for long-term studies of the Sun. This article investigates temporal and periodic variations of the monthly hemispheric sunspot number and sunspot group area for 1905--2016, covering solar cycles 14 to 24. We find that the temporal variations of the sunspot number and group area are different in each hemisphere and peak at different times of the solar cycle in the opposite hemisphe…
We analysed the sunspot group data from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of maxima of Sunspot Cycles 12-24, and at the epochs of maxima of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24. The cosine fits to the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA at the maxima of the sunspot number, WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24, and to th…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions and are generated by a dynamo mechanism which recreates the solar polar field mediated via plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in t…
The data of sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and solar flare index during cycle 23 are analyzed to investigate the intermediate-term periodicities. Power spectral analysis has been performed separately for the data of the whole disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Several significant midrange periodicities ($\sim$175, 133, 113, 104, 84, 63 days) are detected in sunspot activity. Most of the periodicities in sunspot numbers generally agree with those of sunspot areas during the solar cycle 23. The study reveals that the periodic variations in the northern and southern hemispheres o…
Temporal variations in the Suns internal velocity field with a periodicity of about 11 years have been observed over the last four decades. The period of these torsional oscillations and their latitudinal propagation roughly coincides with the period and equatorward propagation of sunspots which originate from a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism operating in the Suns interior. While the solar differential rotation plays an important role in this dynamo mechanism by inducting the toroidal component of magnetic field, the impact of torsional oscillations on the dynamo mechanism and hence the …
The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the relative sunspot number and though most of other indices are closely related, shifts are obtained between their peak activity of the order of 1-2 years. These shifts reveal a 22-yr pattern which can be attributed to solar interior or dynamo related processes. The minimum phase of cycle 23 is not found to be exceptional. Investigating the relative sunspot num…
Periodic changes in a stellar magnetic field can be explained in two ways: the oblique rotator model or the solar cycle model. Although many papers favor the oblique rotator model, there has not been enough evidence to rule out the solar cycle model definitively. This paper presents five new observations (together with a old one) that can be carried out to distinguish magnetic field rotation and magnetic field reversal.
The sunspot cycle is the magnetic cycle of the Sun produced by the dynamo process. A central idea of the solar dynamo is that the toroidal and the poloidal magnetic fields of the Sun sustain each other. We discuss the relevant observational data both for sunspots (which are manifestations of the toroidal field) and for the poloidal field of the Sun. We point out how the differential rotation of the Sun stretches out the poloidal field to produce the toroidal field primarily at the bottom of the convection zone, from where parts of this toroidal field may rise due to magnetic buoyancy to produc…
Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a new type of solar event, the "terminator." Unlike the Sun's signature events, flares and Coronal Mass Ejections, the terminator most likely originates in the solar interior, at or near the tachocline. The terminator signals the end of a magnetic activity cycle at the Sun's equator and the start of a sunspot cycle at mid latitudes. Observations indicate that the time difference between these events is very short, less than a solar rotation, in the context of the sunspot cycle. As the (definitive) start and end point of solar activity cycles th…
Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most prominently the 11-year sunspot solar cycle and its modulations. Space weather events, in the form of solar flares, solar energetic particles, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms, have long been known to approximately follow the solar cycle occurring more frequently at solar maximum than solar minimum. These events can significantly impact our ad…
We amend Babcock's original scenario for the global dynamo process that sustains the Sun's 22-year magnetic cycle. The amended scenario fits post-Babcock observed features of the magnetic activity cycle and convection zone, and is based on ideas of Spruit and Roberts (1983) about magnetic flux tubes in the convection zone. A sequence of four schematic cartoons lays out the proposed evolution of the global configuration of the magnetic field above, in, and at the bottom of the convection zone through sunspot Cycle 23 and into Cycle 24. Three key elements of the amended scenario are: (1) as the …
The Sun's internal structure and dynamics can be studied with helioseismology, which uses the Sun's natural acoustic oscillations to build up a profile of the solar interior. We discuss how solar acoustic oscillations are affected by the Sun's magnetic field. Careful observations of these effects can be inverted to determine the variations in the structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior as the solar cycle progresses. Observed variations in the structure and dynamics can then be used to inform models of the solar dynamo, which are crucial to our understanding of how the Sun's magnetic field…
The difference between consecutive daily Sunspot Numbers was analysed. Its distribution was approximated on a large time scale with an exponential law. In order to verify this approximation a Maximum Entropy distribution was generated by a modified version of the Simulated Annealing algorithm. The exponential approximation holds for the generated distribution too. The exponential law is characteristic for time scales covering whole cycles and it is mostly a characteristic of the Sunspot Number fluctuations and not of its average variation.
The computational analyses is presented of the non stationary case with mixing of the solar model when the neutrino flux $F_{13}$ from the decay of $^{13}N$ is higher than a standard solar model predicts
Hemispheric irregularities of solar magnetic activity is a well-observed phenomenon -- the origin of which has been studied through numerical simulations and data-analysis techniques. In this work we explore possible causes generating north-south asymmetry in the reversal timing and the amplitude of polar field during cycle minimum. Additionally, we investigate how hemispheric asymmetry is translated from cycle to cycle. We pursue a three-step approach. Firstly, we explore the asymmetry present in the observed polar flux and sunspot area by analyzing observational data of the last 110 years. S…
The long term study of the Sun is necessary if we are to determine the evolution of sunspot properties and thereby inform modeling of the solar dynamo, particularly on scales of a solar cycle. We aim to determine a number of sunspot properties over cycle 23 using the uniform database provided by the SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager data. We focus in particular on their distribution on the solar disk, maximum magnetic field and umbral/penumbral areas. We investigate whether the secular decrease in sunspot maximum magnetic field reported in Kitt Peak data is present also in MDI data. We have used t…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. With this tutorial, we investigate the variations in the length of the sunspot number cycle and examine whether the variability can be explained in terms of a secular pattern. We identified long-term cycles in archival data from 1610 - 2000 using median trace analyses of the cycle le…
The application of the Wavelet analysis and Fourier analysis to the dataset of variations of radiation fluxes of solar-like stars and the Sun is examined. In case of the Sun the wavelet-analysis helped us to see a set of values of periods of cycles besides "11-year" cycle: the long-duration cycles of 22-year, 40-50 year and 100-120 year and short-duration cycles of 2-3,5 years and 1,3-year. We present a method of the chromospheric flux simulation using the 13 late-type stars, which have well-determined cyclic flux variations similar to the 11-year solar activity cycle. Our flux prediction is b…
The tilt angle of a sunspot group is a critical quantity in the surface transport of magnetic flux and the solar dynamo. To contribute long-term databases of the tilt angle, we developed an IDL routine, which allows the user to interactively select and measure sunspot positions and areas on the solar disc. We measured the tilt angles of sunspot groups for solar cycles 19-24 (1954.6-2017.8), using the sunspot drawing database of Kandilli Observatory. The method is similar to that used in the discontinued Mt. Wilson and Kodaikanal databases, with the exception that sunspot groups were identified…
The atmospheric activity of the Sun and Sun-like stars is analyzed involving observations from HK-project at the Mount Wilson Observatory, the California and Carnegie Planet Search Program at the Keck and Lick Observatories and the Magellan Planet Search Program at the Las Campanas Observatory. We show that for stars of F, G and K spectral classes, the cyclic activity, similar to the 11-yr solar cycles, is different: it becomes more prominent in K-stars. Comparative study of Sun-like stars with different levels of the chromospheric and coronal activity confirms that the Sun belongs to stars wi…
Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative sunspot number or total sunspot number $x_m$, initial cumulative sunspot number $x_0$, maximum emergence rate $r_0$, and asymmetry $α$. A two-parameter function is obtained by taking $α$ and $r_0$ as fixed value. In addition, it is found that $x_m$ and $x_0$ can be well determined at the start of a cycle. Therefore, a prediction model of sunspot number is establ…
The automated detection of solar features is a technique which is relatively underused but if we are to keep up with the flow of data from spacecraft such as the recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory, then such techniques will be very valuable to the solar community. Automated detection techniques allow us to examine a large set of data in a consistent way and in relatively short periods of time allowing for improved statistics to be carried out on any results obtained. This is particularly useful in the field of sunspot study as catalogues can be built with sunspots detected and tracke…
Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare it with annual sunspot number. We find that average latitude of ERs can be used as a predictor for strength of solar cycle. For a short-term prediction (dT about 1-2 years), maximum latitude of ephemeral regions (in current cycle) defines the amplitude of that cycle (higher is the latitude of ERs, larger are the amplitudes of sunspot cycle). For a long-term p…
