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arXiv 2307.00520astro-ph.SR
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太阳磁偶极矩衰减率与后续太阳黑子周增长率之间关系的发现:太阳周预测的新前兆

Discovery of a relation between the decay rate of the Sun's magnetic dipole and the growth rate of the following sunspot cycle: a new precursor for solar cycle prediction

Priyansh Jaswal, Chitradeep Saha, Dibyendu Nandy

AI总结:

本文发现太阳偶极矩衰减率与后续太阳黑子周上升速率之间的新关系,将其作为瓦尔德迈尔效应的延伸,并据此预测第25太阳周为弱到中等强度、峰值约在2024年。

摘要:

太阳黑子已被观测了四个多世纪,太阳黑子周的磁性质也已为人所知约一个世纪;然而,其背后的一些物理机制仍然难以捉摸。已知太阳磁周涉及磁通量在磁场极向分量与环向分量之间的循环回收,分别表现为太阳偶极矩和太阳黑子。在此我们报告一个新关系的发现:太阳黑子周的上升速率与太阳(轴向)偶极矩的衰减率之间存在关联。这为太阳黑子周中的瓦尔德迈尔效应提供了延伸,并表明上述物理量之间存在因果联系,可简洁表述为:太阳偶极矩的衰减率与后续太阳黑子周的上升速率相关。我们展示了如何利用这一新关系来预测太阳黑子周的时间。我们的分析表明,第25太阳周预计为一个弱到中等强度的周期,峰值出现在$2024.00_{-0.49}^{+0.68}$。

英文摘要:

Sunspots have been observed for over four centuries and the magnetic nature of sunspot cycles has been known for about a century; however, some of its underlying physics still remain elusive. It is known that the solar magnetic cycle involves a recycling of magnetic flux between the poloidal and toroidal components of the magnetic field, that manifests as the solar dipole and sunspots, respectively. Here we report the discovery of a new relationship between the rise rate of the sunspot cycle and the decay rate of the solar (axial) dipole moment. This provides an extension to the Waldmeier effect in sunspot cycles and points to the existence of a causal connection between the aforementioned physical quantities, which can be succinctly stated as the decay rate of the Sun's dipole moment is related to the rate of rise of the following sunspot cycle. We demonstrate how one may take advantage of this new relationship to predict the timing of the sunspot cycle. Our analysis indicates solar cycle 25 is expected to be a weak-moderate cycle, peaking in $2024.00_{-0.49}^{+0.68}$.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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