J. C. Pardo
In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of Lévy processes with no positive jumps conditioned to stay positive. We establish integral tests for the lower envelope at 0 and at $+\infty$ and an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm at 0 and $+\infty$, for the upper envelope.
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A result of R. Durrett, D. Iglehart and D. Miller states that Brownian meander is Brownian motion conditioned to stay positive for a unit of time, in the sense that it is the weak limit, as $x$ goes to 0, of Brownian motion started at $x>0$ and conditioned to stay positive for a unit of time. We extend this limit theorem to the case of multidimensional Brownian motion conditioned to stay in a smooth convex cone.
We study the properties of the exponential functional $\int\_0^{+ \infty} e^{- X^{\uparrow} (t)}dt$ where $X^{\uparrow}$ is a spectrally one-sided L{é}vy process conditioned to stay positive. In particular, we study finiteness, self-decomposability, existence of finite exponential moments, asymptotic tail at $0$ and smoothness of the density.
We consider a random walk $\{S_n\}_{n\in \mathbb{N}}$ in time-inhomogeneous random environment $ξ$. For almost each realization of $ξ$, we formulate a quenched harmonic function, based on which we can define the random walk in random environment conditioned to stay positive by the Doob's $h$-transform. Furthermore, we prove a quenched invariance principle for the conditioned random walk for almost each realization of $ξ$.
We construct the law of Lévy processes conditioned to stay positive under general hypotheses. We obtain a Williams type path decomposition at the minimum of these processes. This result is then applied to prove the weak convergence of the law of Lévy processes conditioned to stay positive as their initial state tends to 0. We describe an absolute continuity relationship between the limit law and the measure of the excursions away from 0 of the underlying Lévy process reflected at its minimum. Then, when the Lévy process creeps upwards, we study the lower tail at 0 of the law of the height this…
Distribution of a Brownian motion conditioned to start from the boundary of an open set $G$ and to stay in $G$ for a finite period of time is studied. Characterizations of such distributions in terms of certain singular stochastic differential equations are obtained. Results are applied to the study of boundaries of clusters in some coalescing stochastic flows on $\mathbb{R}.$
This paper provides a multivariate extension of Bertoin's pathwise construction of a Lévy process conditioned to stay positive/negative. Thus obtained processes conditioned to stay in half-spaces are closely related to the original process on a compact time interval seen from its directional extremal points. In the case of a correlated Brownian motion the law of the conditioned process is obtained by a linear transformation of a standard Brownian motion and an independent Bessel-3 process. Further motivation is provided by a limit theorem corresponding to zooming in on a Lévy process with a Br…
Berry-Esseen inequality for random walks conditioned to stay positive
本文针对条件为保持正的随机游走，推导Berry-Esseen型估计，证明了在增量零均值、有限方差下，其收敛于瑞利分布的速率为$n^{-1/2}$阶。
Let $S(n)$ be a centered random walk with finite second moment. We consider the integrated random walk $T(n) = S(0)+S(1)+\dots+S(n)$. We prove invariance principles for the meander and for the bridge of this process, under the condition that the integrated random walk remains positive. Furthermore, we prove the functional convergence of its Doob's $h$-transform to the $h$-transform of the Kolmogorov diffusion conditioned to stay positive.
We prove an invariance principle for the bridge of a random walk conditioned to stay positive, when the random walk is in the domain of attraction of a stable law, both in the discrete and in the absolutely continuous setting. This includes as a special case the convergence under diffusive rescaling of random walk excursions toward the normalized Brownian excursion, for zero mean, finite variance random walks. The proof exploits a suitable absolute continuity relation together with some local asymptotic estimates for random walks conditioned to stay positive, recently obtained by Vatutin and W…
Let $\{S_n\}$ be a random walk in the domain of attraction of a stable law $\mathcal{Y}$, i.e. there exists a sequence of positive real numbers $(a_n)$ such that $S_n/a_n$ converges in law to $\mathcal{Y}$. Our main result is that the rescaled process $(S_{\lfloor nt\rfloor}/a_n, t\ge 0)$, when conditioned to stay positive, converges in law (in the functional sense) towards the corresponding stable Lévy process conditioned to stay positive. Under some additional assumptions, we also prove a related invariance principle for the random walk killed at its first entrance in the negative half-line …
Let $\{X_n\}_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables in $\mathbb{Z}^d$. Let $S_k=X_1+...+X_k$ and $Y_n(t)$ be the continuous process on $[0,1]$ for which $Y_n(k/n)=S_k/\sqrt{n}$ $k=1,...,n$ and which is linearly interpolated elsewhere. The paper gives a generalization of results of Belkin, \cite{B72} on the weak limit laws of $Y_n(t)$ conditioned to stay away from some small sets. In particular, it is shown that the diffusive limit of the random walk meander on $\mathbb Z^d: d\ge 2$ is the Brownian motion.
Random walks conditioned to stay positive are a prominent topic in fluctuation theory. One way to construct them is as a random walk conditioned to stay positive up to time $n$, and let $n$ tend to infinity. A second method is conditioning instead to stay positive up to an independent geometric time, and send its parameter to zero. The multidimensional case (condition the components of a $d$-dimensional random walk to be ordered) was solved in [EK08] using the first approach, but some moment conditions need to be imposed. Our approach is based on the second method, which has the advantage to r…
Let S_0=0,{S_n, n>0} be a random walk generated by a sequence of i.i.d. random variables X_1,X_2,... and let τ^{-} be the first descending ladder epoch. Assuming that the distribution of X_1 belongs to the domain of attraction of an α-stable law we study the asymptotic behavior of the local probabilities P(τ^{-}=n) and the conditional local probabilities P(S_n\in [x,x+y)|τ^{-}>n) for fixed y and x=x(n)\in (0,\infty).
We consider Kallenberg's hypothesis on the characteristic function of a Lévy process and show that it allows the construction of weakly continuous bridges of the Lévy process conditioned to stay positive. We therefore provide a notion of normalized excursions Lévy processes above their cumulative minimum. Our main contribution is the construction of a continuous version of the transition density of the Lévy process conditioned to stay positive by using the weakly continuous bridges of the Lévy process itself. For this, we rely on a method due to Hunt which had only been shown to provide upper …
Consider the real Markov walk $S_n = X_1+ \dots+ X_n$ with increments $\left(X_n\right)_{n\geq 1}$ defined by a stochastic recursion starting at $X_0=x$. For a starting point $y>0$ denote by $τ_y$ the exit time of the process $\left( y+S_n \right)_{n\geq 1}$ from the positive part of the real line. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of the event $τ_y \geq n$ and of the conditional law of $y+S_n$ given $τ_y \geq n$ as $n \to +\infty$.
MA(1) processes with uniform innovations conditioned to stay positive in the non-expanding regime
研究具有均匀创新且条件保持为正的MA(1)过程，通过马尔可夫链表示，证明在此条件下极限有限维分布的存在性，并明确将极限过程识别为Doob h-变换，在非扩张情形下计算生成函数、提取尖锐持久渐近性并给出特征函数h和持久指数的显式公式。
Asymptotic expansions for normal deviations of random walks conditioned to stay positive
针对一维零均值有限方差独立同分布增量的正条件随机游走，本文补充了文献DTW23中局部概率渐近展开的适用范围，推导了x为√n量级下的替代展开式。
We construct the conditional versions of a multidimensional random walk given that it does not leave the Weyl chambers of type C and of type D, respectively, in terms of a Doob h-transform. Furthermore, we prove functional limit theorems for the rescaled random walks. This is an extension of recent work by Eichelsbacher and Koenig who studied the analogous conditioning for the Weyl chamber of type A. Our proof follows recent work by Denisov and Wachtel who used martingale properties and a strong approximation of random walks by Brownian motion. Therefore, we are able to keep minimal moment ass…
Expansions for random walks conditioned to stay positive
本文研究零均值有限方差一维随机游走在保持为正条件下的首达时尾分布与局部概率渐近展开，并由此得到离散多调和函数及其更新定理类似物。
MA(1) processes with Laplace innovations conditioned to stay positive
该论文研究带拉普拉斯创新的MA(1)过程在正性约束下的极限行为，通过Doob h-变换识别极限，并显式给出各参数区域的持久性指数、渐近性和不变分布。
Let $\{S_n,n\geq 0\} $ be a random walk whose increments belong without centering to the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law $\{Y_t,t\geq 0\}$, i.e. $S_{nt}/a_n\Rightarrow Y_t,t\geq 0,$ for some scaling constants $a_n$. Assuming that $S_0=o(a_{n})$ and $S_n\leq φ(n)=o(a_n),$ we prove several conditional limit theorems for the distribution of $S_{n-m}$ given $m=o(n)$ and $\min_{0\leq k\leq n}S_k\geq 0$. These theorems complement the statements established by F. Caravenna and L. Chaumont in 2013. The obtained results are applied for studying the population size of a critical branching proc…
Consider a Markov chain $(X_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ with values in the state space $\mathbb X$. Let $f$ be a real function on $\mathbb X$ and set $S_0=0,$ $S_n = f(X_1)+\cdots + f(X_n),$ $n\geqslant 1$. Let $\mathbb P_x$ be the probability measure generated by the Markov chain starting at $X_0=x$. For a starting point $y \in \mathbb R$ denote by $τ_y$ the first moment when the Markov walk $(y+S_n)_{n\geqslant 1}$ becomes non-positive. Under the condition that $S_n$ has zero drift, we find the asymptotics of the probability $\mathbb P_x ( τ_y >n )$ and of the conditional law $\mathbb P_x ( y+S_n\leq…
We study Markovian continuous-time random walk models for Lévy flights and we show an example in which the convergence to stable densities is not guaranteed when jumps follow a bi-modal power-law distribution that is equal to zero in zero. The significance of this result is two-fold: i) with regard to the probabilistic derivation of the fractional diffusion equation and also ii) with regard to the concept of site fidelity in the framework of Lévy-like motion for wild animals.
Corrected diffusion approximation for random walks conditioned to stay positive
本文提出修正的扩散近似方法，用于分析条件保持正的随机游走的概率性质，并推导出Berry-Esseen型不等式。
Under a natural asumption on the drift, the law of the simple random walk on the multidimensional first quadrant conditioned to always stay in the first octant was obtained by O'Connell in [O]. It coincides with that of the image of the simple random walk under the multidimensional Pitman transform and can be expressed in terms of specializations of Schur functions. This result has been generalized in [LLP1] and [LLP2] for a large class of random walks on weight lattices defined from representations of Kac-Moody algebras and their conditionings to always stay in Weyl chambers. In these various…
We study the pathwise description of a (sub-)critical continuous-state branching process (CSBP) conditioned to be never extinct, as the solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion and Poisson point measures. The interest of our approach, which relies on applying Girsanov theorem on the SDE that describes the unconditioned CSBP, is that it points out an explicit mechanism to build the immigration term appearing in the conditioned process, by randomly selecting jumps of the original one. These techniques should also be useful to represent more general h-transforms of…
On the prospective minimum of the random walk conditioned to stay non-negative
本文研究增量属于稳定律吸引域的随机游走，在给定终点非负且不超过某阈值的条件下，推导其区间最小值的前瞻极限分布，并证明该极限依参数 r、k、n 的关系呈现五种不同形式。
We consider a real random walk S_n = X_1 + ... + X_n attracted (without centering) to the normal law: this means that for a suitable norming sequence a_n we have the weak convergence S_n / a_n --> f(x) dx, where f(x) is the standard normal density (this happens in particular by the CLT when X_1 has zero mean and finite variance σ^2, with a_n = σ\sqrt{n}). A local refinement of this convergence is provided by Gnedenko's and Stone's Local Limit Theorems, in the lattice and nonlattice case respectively. Now let C_n denote the event (S_1 > 0, ..., S_n > 0) and let S_n^+ denote the random variable …
A critical branching process $\left\{ Z_{k},k=0,1,2,...\right\} $ in a random environment is considered. A conditional functional limit theorem for the properly scaled process $\left\{ \log Z_{pu},0\leq u<\infty \right\} $ is established under the assumptions $Z_{n}>0$ and $p\ll n$. It is shown that the limiting process is a Levy process conditioned to stay nonnegative. The proof of this result is based on a limit theorem describing the distribution of the initial part of the trajectories of a driftless random walk conditioned to stay nonnegative.
Our first result concerns a characterisation by means of a functional equation of Poisson point processes conditioned by the value of their first moment. It leads to a generalised version of Mecke's formula. En passant, it also allows to gain quantitative results about stochastic domination for Poisson point processes under linear constraints. Since bridges of a pure jump Lévy process in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with a height $a$ can be interpreted as a Poisson point process on space-time conditioned by pinning its first moment to $a$, our approach allows us to characterize bridges of Lévy processes by …
We consider $N$ non-intersecting Brownian bridges conditioned to stay below a fixed threshold. We consider a scaling limit where the limit shape is tangential to the threshold. In the large $N$ limit, we determine the limiting distribution of the top Brownian bridge conditioned to stay below a function as well as the limiting correlation kernel of the system. It is a one-parameter family of processes which depends on the tuning of the threshold position on the natural fluctuation scale. We also discuss the relation to the six-vertex model and to the Aztec diamond on restricted domains.
Many results in stochastic analysis and mathematical finance involve local martingales. However, specific examples of strict local martingales are rare and analytically often rather unhandy. We study local martingales that follow a given deterministic function up to a random time $γ$ at which they jump and stay constant afterwards. The (local) martingale properties of these single jump local martingales are characterised in terms of conditions on the input parameters. This classification allows an easy construction of strict local martingales, uniformly integrable martingales that are not in $…
We consider a random walk with a negative drift and with a jump distribution which under Cramér's change of measure belongs to the domain of attraction of a spectrally positive stable law. If conditioned to reach a high level and suitably scaled, this random walk converges in law to a nondecreasing Markov process which can be interpreted as a spectrally-positive Lévy %-Khinchin process conditioned not to overshoot level one.
Consider a non-explosive positive Feller process with no negative jumps. It is shown in this note that when infinity is an entrance boundary, in the sense that the entrance times of the process remain bounded when the initial value tends to infinity, the process admits a Feller extension on the compactified state space $[0,\infty]$. Moreover, when started from infinity, the extended Markov process on $[0,\infty]$ leaves infinity instantaneously and stays finite, almost-surely. Arguments are adapted from a proof given by O. Kallenberg for diffusions. We also show that the process started from $…
We consider a strong Markov process with killing and prove an approximation method for the distribution of the process conditioned not to be killed when it is observed. The method is based on a Fleming-Viot type particle system with rebirths, whose particles evolve as independent copies of the original strong Markov process and jump onto each others instead of being killed. Our only assumption is that the number of rebirths of the Fleming-Viot type system doesn't explode in finite time almost surely and that the survival probability of the original process remains positive in finite time. The …
We study the asymptotic hitting time $τ^{(n)}$ of a family of Markov processes $X^{(n)}$ to a target set $G^{(n)}$ when the process starts from a trap defined by very general properties. We give an explicit description of the law of $X^{(n)}$ conditioned to stay within the trap, and from this we deduce the exponential distribution of $τ^{(n)}$. Our approach is very broad ---it does not require reversibility, the target $G$ does not need to be a rare event, and the traps and the limit on $n$ can be of very general nature--- and leads to explicit bounds on the deviations of $τ^{(n)}$ from expone…
In the recent article Döring et al. [4] the authors conditioned a stable process with two-sided jumps to avoid an interval. As usual the strategy was to find an invariant function for the process killed on entering the interval and to show that the corresponding h-transformed process is indeed the process conditioned to avoid an interval in a meaningful way. In the present article we consider the case of a completely asymmetric stable process. It turns out that the invariant function found in [4] does not exist or is not invariant but nonetheless, we will characterize the conditioned process a…
This paper concerns a scaling limit of a one-dimensional random walk $S^x_n$ started from $x$ on the integer lattice conditioned to avoid a non-empty finite set $A$, the random walk being assumed to be irreducible and have zero mean. Suppose the variance $σ^2$ of the increment law is finite. Given positive constants $b$, $c$ and $T$ we consider the scaled process $S^{b_N}_{[tN]}/σ\sqrt N$, $0\leq t \leq T$ started from a point $b_N \approx b\sqrt N$ conditioned to arrive at another point $\approx -c\sqrt N$ at $t=T$ and avoid $A$ in between and discuss the functional limit of it as $N\to\infty…
Entropic repulsion of 3D Ising interfaces conditioned to stay above a floor
本文研究三维 Ising 界面在硬地板约束下的熵排斥，确定临界地板高度 h_n^*=(c_*+o(1))log n，并验证其与 SOS 近似的标度预测一致。
By killing a stable Lévy process when it leaves the positive half-line, or by conditioning it to stay positive, or by conditioning it to hit 0 continuously, we obtain three different positive self-similar Markov processes which illustrate the three classes described by Lamperti \cite{La}. For each of these processes, we compute explicitly the infinitesimal generator from which we deduce the characteristics of the underlying Lévy process in the Lamperti representation. The proof of this result bears on the behaviour at time 0 of stable Lévy processes before their first passage time across level…
Inspired by a recent paper of I. Grama, E. Le Page and M. Peigné, we consider a sequence $(g_n)_{n \geq 1}$ of i.i.d. random $d\times d$-matrices with non-negative entries and study the fluctuations of the process $(\log \vert g_n\cdots g_1\cdot x\vert )_{n \geq 1}$ for any non-zero vector $x$ in $\mathbb R^d$ with non-negative coordinates. Our method involves approximating this process by a martingale and studying harmonic functions for its restriction to the upper half line. Under certain conditions, the probability for this process to stay in the upper half real line up to time $n$ decrease…
This note continues paper of Denisov and Wachtel (2010), where we have constructed a $k$-dimensional random walk conditioned to stay in the Weyl chamber of type $A$. The construction was done under the assumption that the original random walk has $k-1$ moments. In this note we continue the study of killed random walks in the Weyl chamber, and assume that the tail of increments is regularly varying of index $α<k-1$. It appears that the asymptotic behaviour of random walks is different in this case. We determine the asymptotic behaviour of the exit time, and, using thisinformation, construct a c…
We study the distribution of the area under the normalized excursion of a spectrally positive stable L{é}vy process L, as well as the area under its meander, and under L conditioned to stay positive. Our results involve a special case of Wright's function, which may be seen as a generalization of the classic Airy function appearing in similar Brownian's areas.
In this article, we consider time-inhomogeneous diffusive particle systems, whose particles jump from the boundary of a bounded open subset of $\R^d$, $d\geq 1$. We give a sufficient criterion for the family of empirical distributions of such systems to be uniformly tight, independently of the jump location of the particles. As an application, we show that the conditional distribution of a family of time-inhomogeneous and environment-dependent diffusions conditioned not to hit the boundary of a bounded open subset of $\R^d$ is uniformly tight.
In the present work, we consider spectrally positive Lévy processes $(X_t,t\geq0)$ not drifting to $+\infty$ and we are interested in conditioning these processes to reach arbitrarily large heights (in the sense of the height process associated with $X$) before hitting 0. This way we obtain a new conditioning of Lévy processes to stay positive. The (honest) law $\pfl$ of this conditioned process is defined as a Doob $h$-transform via a martingale. For Lévy processes with infinite variation paths, this martingale is $(\int\tilde\rt(\mathrm{d}z)e^{αz}+I_t)\2{t\leq T_0}$ for some $α$ and where $(…
We consider a process $Z$ on the real line composed from a Lévy process and its exponentially tilted version killed with arbitrary rates and give an expression for the joint law of $Z$ seen from its supremum, the supremum $\overline Z$ and the time $T$ at which the supremum occurs. In fact, it is closely related to the laws of the original and the tilted Lévy processes conditioned to stay negative and positive. The result is used to derive a new representation of stationary particle systems driven by Lévy processes. In particular, this implies that a max-stable process arising from Lévy proces…
This paper presents some new results on the conditional joint probability distributions of phase-type under the mixture of right-continuous Markov jump processes with absorption on the same finite state space $\mathbb{S}$ moving at different speeds, where the mixture occurs at a random time. Such mixture was first proposed by Frydman \cite{Frydman2005} and Frydman and Schuermann \cite{Frydman2008} as a generalization of the mover-stayer model of Blumen et at. \cite{Blumen}, and was recently extended by Surya \cite{Surya2018}. When conditioning on all previous and current information $\mathcal{…
Extreme Value Statistics of Jump Processes
本文研究一般离散时间连续空间对称跳跃过程的极值统计，通过引入半无穷传播子和带状概率作为核心构件，推导了极值及其达到时间的联合分布，并获得了精确表达式与普适渐近行为。
We consider a class of Lévy-type processes derived via a Doob-transform from Lévy processes conditioned by a control function called potential. These processes have position-dependent and generally unbounded components, with stationary distributions given by the ground states of the Lévy generators perturbed by the potential. We derive precise lower and upper envelopes for the almost sure long time behaviour of these ground state-transformed Lévy processes, characterized through escape rates and integral tests. We also highlight the role of the parameters by specific examples.
We establish integral tests and laws of the iterated logarithm at 0 and at $+\infty$, for the upper envelope of positive self-similar Markov processes. Our arguments are based on the Lamperti representation, time reversal arguments and on the study of the upper envelope of their future infimum due to Pardo \cite{Pa}. These results extend integral test and laws of the iterated logarithm for Bessel processes due to Dvoretsky and Erdös \cite{de} and stable Lévy processes conditioned to stay positive with no positive jumps due to Bertoin \cite{be1}.
In this note we investigate the behaviour of Brownian motion conditioned on a growth constraint of its local time which has been previously investigated by Berestycki and Benjamini. For a class of non-decreasing positive functions $f(t); t>0$, we consider the Wiener measure under the condition that the Brownian local time is dominated by the function f up to time T. In the case where $f(t)/t^{3/2}$ is integrable we describe the limiting process as T goes to infinity. Moreover, we prove two conjectures in [BB10] in the case for a class of functions f, for which $f(t)/t^{3/2}$ just fails to be i…
We study the norm of the two-dimensional Brownian motion conditioned to stay outside the unit disk at all times. By conditioning the process is changed from barely recurrent to slightly transient. We obtain sharp results on the rate of escape to infinity of the process of future minima: (i) we find an integral test on the function $g$ so that the future minima process drops beyond the barrier $\exp \{ \ln t \times g(\ln \ln t)\}$ at arbitrary large times; (ii) we show that the future minima process exceeds $K \sqrt{ t \times \ln \ln \ln t}$ at arbitrary large times with probability 0 [resp., 1…
Large Excursions of Reflected Lévy Processes: Asymptotic Shapes
本文研究了反射莱维过程偏移的渐进行为，揭示了长寿命与大高度在不同条件下的等价性及收敛性质。
The central result of this paper is an analytic duality relation for real-valued Lévy processes killed upon exiting a half-line. By Nagasawa's theorem, this yields a remarkable time-reversal identity involving the Lévy process conditioned to stay positive. As examples of applications, we construct a version of the Lévy process indexed by the entire real line and started from $-\infty$ which enjoys a natural spatial-stationarity property, and point out that the latter leads to a natural Lamperti-type representation for self-similar Markov processes in $(0,\infty)$ started from the entrance poin…
New results on conditional joint probability distributions of first exit times are presented for a continuous-time stochastic process defined as the mixture of Markov jump processes moving at different speeds on the same finite state space, while the mixture occurs at a random time. Such mixture was first proposed by Frydman \cite{Frydman2005} and Frydman and Schuermann \cite{Frydman2008} as a generalization of the mover-stayer model of Blumen et at. \cite{Blumen}, and was recently extended by Surya \cite{Surya2018}, in which explicit distributional identities of the process are given, in part…
The running infimum of a Levy process relative to its point of issue is know to have the same range that of the negative of a certain subordinator. Conditioning a Levy process issued from a strictly positive value to stay positive may therefore be seen as implicitly conditioning its descending ladder heigh subordinator to remain in a strip. Motivated by this observation, we consider the general problem of conditioning a subordinator to remain in a strip. Thereafter we consider more general contexts in which subordinators embedded in the path decompositions of Markov processes are conditioned t…
Long time behavior and Yaglom limit for real trait-structured Birth and Death Processes
本文研究连续时间测度值出生-死亡过程的长时间行为，在临界、次临界和超临界三种状态下，证明了矩和灭绝概率的新递推及时间渐近性，并建立了条件于非灭绝的Q-过程和Yaglom极限的存在性，且给出了三类自然例子。
Let $X$ be a real Lévy process and let $\Xpos $ be the process conditioned to stay positive. We assume that $ 0 $ is regular for $(-\infty, 0)$ and $(0, +\infty) $ with respect to $X$. Using elementary excursion theory arguments, we provide a simple probabilistic description of the reversed paths of $X$ and $\Xpos $ at their first hitting time of $ (x, +\infty)$ and last passage time of $ (-\infty, x ] $, on a fixed time interval $[0, t]$, for a positive level $x$. From these reversion formulas, we derive an extension to general Lévy processes of Williams' decomposition theorems, Bismut's deco…
The paper deals with the asymptotic behavior of the bridge of a Gaussian process conditioned to stay in $n$ fixed points at $n$ fixed past instants. In particular, functional large deviation results are stated for small time. Several examples are considered: integrated or not fractional Brownian motion, $m$-fold integrated Brownian motion. As an application, the asymptotic behavior of the exit probability is studied and used for the practical purpose of the numerical computation, via Monte Carlo methods, of the hitting probability up to a given time.
Approximations of semi-Markov processes and insurance policy valuation
本文提出基于均匀化原理的网格条件齐次马尔可夫近似方法，用于半马尔可夫过程路径泛函计算，并扩展到一般状态空间，以残疾保险模型验证其易实现性和实用性。
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