Endre Csáki, Antónia Földes, Pál Révész
Consider a symmetric aperiodic random walk in $Z^d$, $d\geq 3$. There are points (called heavy points) where the number of visits by the random walk is close to its maximum. We investigate the local times around these heavy points and show that they converge to a deterministic limit as the number of steps tends to infinity.
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We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for tail probabilities for the area.
For a simple symmetric random walk in dimension $d\geq 3$, a uniform strong law of large numbers is proved for the number of sites with given local time up to time $n$.
It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such random walks in the large deviation scale which we call hidden large deviation. We apply this idea in the context of queueing processes with heavy-tailed service times and study approximations of severe congestion times for (buffered) queues. We conclude with simulated examples to verify our results.
We consider the randomly biased random walk on trees in the slow movement regime as in [HS16], whose potential is given by a branching random walk in the boundary case. We study the heavy range up to the $n$-th return to the root, i.e., the number of edges visited more than $k_n$ times. For $k_n=n^θ$ with $θ\in(0,1)$, we obtain the convergence in probability of the rescaled heavy range, which improves one result of [AD20].
We consider random walks with finite second moment which drifts to $-\infty$ and have heavy tail. We focus on the events when the minimum and the final value of this walk belong to some compact set. We first specify the associated probability. Then, conditionally on such an event, we finely describe the trajectory of the random walk. It yields a decomposition theorem with respect to a random time giving a big jump whose distribution can be described explicitly.
Asymptotic behavior of the extremal position in a multi-type branching random walk with heavy-tailed displacements
本文研究了位移具有重尾的多类型分支随机游动，探讨了不可约与可约情形下最右粒子的渐近行为，并为不同设定确定了正确的归一化。
We focus on recurrent random walks in random environment (RWRE) on Galton-Watson trees. The range of these walks, that is the number of sites visited at some fixed time, has been studied in three different papers [AC18], [AdR17] and [dR16]. Here we study the heavy range: the number of edges visited at least $α$ times for some integer $α$. The asymptotic behavior of this process when $α$ is a power of the number of steps of the walk is given for all the recurrent cases. It turns out that this heavy range plays a crucial role in the rate of convergence of an estimator of the environment from a s…
Sub-Gaussian estimates for the natural random walk is typical of many regular fractal graphs. Subordination shows that there exist heavy tailed jump processes whose jump indices are greater than or equal to two. However, the existing machinery used to prove heat kernel bounds for such heavy tailed random walks fail in this case. In this work we extend Davies' perturbation method to obtain transition probability bounds for these anomalous heavy tailed random walks. We prove global upper and lower bounds on the transition probability density that are sharp up to constants. An important feature o…
Results have been moved to a published article, see arXiv:0812.2669v4[math.PR]
Importance sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed random walks are considered. Using a specification with algorithms based on mixtures of the original distribution with some other distribution, sufficient conditions for obtaining bounded relative error are presented. It is proved that mixture algorithms of this kind can achieve asymptotically optimal relative error. Some examples of mixture algorithms are presented, including mixture algorithms using a scaling of the original distribution, and the bounds of the relative errors are calculated. The algorithms are evaluated numerically in a simple …
We consider asymptotics for the maximum of a modulated random walk whose increments $ξ_n^{X_n}$ are heavy-tailed. Of particular interest is the case where the modulating process $X$ is regenerative. Here we study also the maximum of the recursion given by $W_0=0$ and, for $n\ge1$, $W_n=\max(0,W_{n-1}+ξ_n^{X_n})$
This note continues paper of Denisov and Wachtel (2010), where we have constructed a $k$-dimensional random walk conditioned to stay in the Weyl chamber of type $A$. The construction was done under the assumption that the original random walk has $k-1$ moments. In this note we continue the study of killed random walks in the Weyl chamber, and assume that the tail of increments is regularly varying of index $α<k-1$. It appears that the asymptotic behaviour of random walks is different in this case. We determine the asymptotic behaviour of the exit time, and, using thisinformation, construct a c…
Sharp asymptotics for $N$-point correlation functions of coalescing heavy-tailed random walk
本文研究了 coalescing 重尾随机游走系统的 N 点相关函数的精确渐进行为，通过尾部估计和非碰撞概率分析，推导了重尾随机游走的精细估计。
In the proof of the invariance principle for locally perturbed periodic Lorentz process with finite horizon, a lot of delicate results were needed concerning the recurrence properties of its unperturbed version. These were analogous to the similar properties of Simple Symmetric Random Walk. However, in the case of Lorentz process with infinite horizon, the analogous results for the corresponding random walk are not known, either. In this paper, these properties are ascertained for the appropriate random walk (this happens to be in the non normal domain of attraction of the normal law). As a to…
Peripheral Traps and Lower Bounds on Mixing Times for Random Walks on Sparse Heavy-Tailed Random Intersection Graphs
本文针对稀疏重尾随机交图上的随机游走，分析其混合时间下界，发现外围陷阱导致混合时间下界为Ω(log²n)，局部总变差距离非集中衰减，进而指出不存在全局截断。
We study asymptotic properties of spatially non-homogeneous random walks with non-integrable increments, including transience, almost-sure bounds, and existence and non-existence of moments for first-passage and last-exit times. In our proofs we also make use of estimates for hitting probabilities and large deviations bounds. Our results are more general than existing results in the literature, which consider only the case of sums of independent (typically, identically distributed) random variables. We do not assume the Markov property. Existing results that we generalize include a circle of i…
Foss and Zachary (2003) and Foss, Palmowski and Zachary (2005) studied the probability of achieving a receding boundary on a time interval of random length by a random walk with a heavy-tailed jump distribution. They have proposed and developed a new approach that allows to generalise results of Asmussen (1998) onto the case of arbitrary stopping times and a wide class of nonlinear boundaries, and to obtain uniform results over all stopping times. In this paper, we consider a class of branching random walks with fading branching and obtain results on the tail asymptotics for the maximum of a b…
We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely general stopping times, uniformity of convergence over all stopping times and a wide class of nonlinear boundaries. We also give some examples and counterexamples.
Consider a family of random walks $S_n^{(a)}=X_1^{(a)}+\cdots+X_n^{(a)}$ with negative drift $\mathbf E X_1^{(a)}=-a<0$ and finite variance $\mbox{var}(X_1^{(a)})=σ^2<\infty$.Let $M^{(a)}=\max_{n\ge 0} S_n^{(a)}$ be the maximums of the random walks. The exponential asymptotics $\mathbf P(aM^{(a)}>x)\sim e^{-2x/σ^2}$, as $a\to 0$, were found by Kingman and are known as heavy traffic approximation in the queueing theory. For subexponential random variables the large deviation asymptotics for $\mathbf P(M^{(a)}>x)\sim \frac{1}{a}\overline F^I(x)$ hold for fixed $a$ as $x\to\infty$. In this paper …
Quenched scaling limit for biased random walks on random, heavy tailed conductances: low dimensions
本文研究 $\mathbb{Z}^d$ 上重尾随机电导中有偏随机游走的次弹道行为，将已有退火标度极限推广并证明为对所有 $d\ge2$ 成立的淬火极限。
Stationary activated random walk: regularity, heavy tails, and remixing
研究平稳激活随机游走，证明子区间密度接近临界值，雪崩面积重尾，过程在o(n)步后遗忘初始态，并猜想相关量由同一临界指数控制。
Large deviations for the branching random walk with heavy-tailed associated random walk - a principle of one big jump
本文研究分支随机游走的大偏差问题，证明了在重尾关联随机游走条件下，通过大跳跃原理得到随机测度的渐进行为。
Given a branching random walk $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ on $\mathbb{R}$, let $Z_n(A)$ be the number of particles located in interval $A$ at generation $n$. It is well known (e.g., \cite{biggins}) that under some mild conditions, $Z_n(\sqrt nA)/Z_n(\mathbb{R})$ converges a.s. to $ν(A)$ as $n\rightarrow\infty$, where $ν$ is the standard Gaussian measure. In this work, we investigate its large deviation probabilities under the condition that the step size or offspring law has heavy tail, i.e. the decay rate of $$\mathbb{P}(Z_n(\sqrt nA)/Z_n(\mathbb{R})>p)$$ as $n\rightarrow\infty$, where $p\in(ν(A),1)$. O…
For families of random walks $\{S_k^{(a)}\}$ with $\mathbf E S_k^{(a)} = -ka < 0$ we consider their maxima $M^{(a)} = \sup_{k \ge 0} S_k^{(a)}$. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of $M^{(a)}$ as $a \to 0$ for asymptotically stable random walks. This problem appeared first in the 1960's in the analysis of a single-server queue when the traffic load tends to 1 and since then is referred to as the heavy-traffic approximation problem. Kingman and Prokhorov suggested two different approaches which were later followed by many authors. We give two elementary proofs of our main result, using eac…
We study models of discrete-time, symmetric, $\Z^{d}$-valued random walks in random environments, driven by a field of i.i.d. random nearest-neighbor conductances $ω_{xy}\in[0,1]$, with polynomial tail near 0 with exponent $γ>0$. We first prove for all $d\geq5$ that the return probability shows an anomalous decay (non-Gaussian) that approches (up to sub-polynomial terms) a random constant times $n^{-2}$ when we push the power $γ$ to zero. In contrast, we prove that the heat-kernel decay is as close as we want, in a logarithmic sense, to the standard decay $n^{-d/2}$ for large values of the par…
In the present work, we investigate the case of Directed Polymer in a Random Environment (DPRE), when the increments of the random walk are heavy-tailed with tail-exponent equal to zero ($\mathbf{P}[|X_1|\geq n]$ decays slower than any power of $n$). This case has not yet been studied in the context of directed polymers and present key differences with the simple symmetric random walk case and the cases where the increments belong to the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law, where $α\in (0, 2]$. We establish the absence of a very strong disorder regime - that is, the free energy equals ze…
This article studies asymptotic approximations of ruin probabilities of multivariate random walks with heavy-tailed increments. Under our assumptions, the distributions of the increments are closely connected to multivariate subexponentiality and admit dependence between components. Keywords: subexponential distribution, ruin probability, multivariate random walk
Motivated by applications to insurance mathematics, we prove some heavy-traffic limit theorems for processes which encompass the fractionally differentiated random walk as well as some FARIMA processes, when the innovations are in the domain of attraction of a nonGaussian stable distribution.
Motivated by applications to insurance mathematics, we prove some heavy-traffic limit theorems for process which encompass the fractionally integrated random walk as well as some FARIMA processes, when the innovations are in the domain of attraction of a nonGaussian stable distribution.
We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we exhibit natural conditions under which the asymptotics of the tail distribution of the overall maximum of S can be computed. We present results in discrete and in continuous time. In particular, in the absence of modulation, the process S in continuous time reduces to a Levy process with heavy-tailed Levy measure. A central point of the paper is that we make ful…
The choice of the increment distribution is crucial for the random-walk Metropolis-Hastings (RWM) algorithm. In this paper we study the optimal choice in high-dimension setting among all possible increment distributions. The conclusion is rather counter intuitive, but the optimal rate of convergence is attained by the usual choice, the normal distribution as the increment distribution. In particular, no heavy-tailed increment distribution can improve the rate.
A random flight on a plane with non-isotropic displacements at the moments of direction changes is considered. In the case of exponentially distributed flight lengths a Gaussian limit theorem is proved for the position of a particle in the scheme of series when jump lengths and non-isotropic displacements tend to zero. If the flight lengths have a folded Cauchy distribution the limiting distribution of the particle position is a convolution of the circular bivariate Cauchy distribution with a Gaussian law.
We study a continuous-time branching random walk on the lattice $\mathbb{Z}^{d}$, $d\in \mathbb{N}$, with a single source of branching, that is the lattice point where the birth and death of particles can occur. The random walk is assumed to be homogeneous, symmetric and irreducible but, in contrast to previous investigations, the random walk transition intensities $a(x,y)$ decrease as $|y-x|^{-(d+α)}$ for $|y-x|\to \infty$, where $α\in(0,2)$, that leads to an infinite variance of the random walk jumps. The~mechanism of the birth and death of particles at the source is governed by a continuous…
Aging and sub-aging for one-dimensional random walks amongst random conductances
研究一维随机电导中随机游走的长时间行为，证明在电导于0处重尾时过程最大值的 aging 现象，以及在无穷远处重尾时游走者位置的 aging 与 sub-aging 结论。
We study a random walk on a complex of finitely many half-lines joined at a common origin; jumps are heavy-tailed and of two types, either one-sided (towards the origin) or two-sided (symmetric). Transmission between half-lines via the origin is governed by an irreducible Markov transition matrix, with associated stationary distribution $μ_k$. If $χ_k$ is $1$ for one-sided half-lines $k$ and $1/2$ for two-sided half-lines, and $α_k$ is the tail exponent of the jumps on half-line $k$, we show that the recurrence classification for the case where all $α_k χ_k \in (0,1)$ is determined by the sign…
A Sharp Phase Transition for Killed Branching Random Walks with Heavy-Tailed Displacements
本文研究重尾位移分支随机游走在超线性杀死屏障下的存活相变，证明临界值为4而非一阶矩启发式的2，并分析临界值处的非确定性。
Ranges of Extremal Processes and Heavy-Tailed Random Walks in Spaces of Growing Dimension
研究了在维度增长空间中，极值过程与重尾随机游走的路径极限行为，通过等距映射和泊松聚类过程解释其收敛性。
The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture form. We exploit our methodology to achieve two types of results. First, we construct Monte Carlo estimators that are strongly efficient (i.e. have bounded relative mean squared error as the event of interest becomes rare). These estimators are used to estimate both rare-event probabilities of interest and associated conditional expectations. We emphasize that…
Let $(X_n:n\geq 0)$ be a sequence of i.i.d. r.v.'s with negative mean. Set $S_0=0$ and define $S_n=X_1+... +X_n$. We propose an importance sampling algorithm to estimate the tail of $M=\max \{S_n:n\geq 0\}$ that is strongly efficient for both light and heavy-tailed increment distributions. Moreover, in the case of heavy-tailed increments and under additional technical assumptions, our estimator can be shown to have asymptotically vanishing relative variance in the sense that its coefficient of variation vanishes as the tail parameter increases. A key feature of our algorithm is that it is stat…
Branching random walks on multidimensional lattice with heavy tails and a constant branching rate are considered. It is shown that under these conditions (heavy tails and constant rate), the front propagates exponentially fast, but the particles inside of the front are distributed very non-uniformly. The particles exhibit intermittent behavior in a large part of the region behind the front (i.e., the particles are concentrated only in very sparse spots there). The zone of non-intermittency (were particles are distributed relatively uniformly) extends with a power rate. This rate is found.
We study a random walk in random environment on the non-negative integers. The random environment is not homogeneous in law, but is a mixture of two kinds of site, one in asymptotically vanishing proportion. The two kinds of site are (i) points endowed with probabilities drawn from a symmetric distribution with heavy tails at 0 and 1, and (ii) `fast points' with a fixed systematic drift. Without these fast points, the model is related to the diffusion in heavy-tailed (`stable') random potential studied by Schumacher and Singh; the fast points perturb that model. The two components compete to d…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability of the rare event as its normalizing constant. Using the MCMC methodology a Markov chain is simulated, with that conditional distribution as its invariant distribution, and information about the normalizing constant is extracted from its trajectory. The algorithm is described in full generality and applied to the problem of computing the probability that a h…
Sample-Path Large Deviations for Lévy Processes and Random Walks with Lognormal Increments
本文研究对数正态增量 Lévy 过程与随机游走的样本路径大偏差，建立一维及独立坐标多维过程的 extended LDP，并构造反例说明其在 J_1 与 M_1' 拓扑下不能加强为标准 LDP。
In this article we establish for the superdiffusive regime $p \in (1/2,1)$ that the fluctuations of a general step-reinforced random walk around $a_n \hat{W}$, where $(a_n)_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$ is a non-negative sequence of order $n^p$ and $\hat{W}$ is a non-degenerate random variable, is Gaussian. This extends a known result by Kubota and Takei for the elephant random walk to the more general setting of step-reinforced random walks. Further, we provide an application of the asymptotic normality of $\hat{S}$ around $a_n \hat{W}$ to reinforced empirical processes as studied recently by Bertoin, …
Continuous time random walks impose a random waiting time before each particle jump. Scaling limits of heavy tailed continuous time random walks are governed by fractional evolution equations. Space-fractional derivatives describe heavy tailed jumps, and the time-fractional version codes heavy tailed waiting times. This paper develops scaling limits and governing equations in the case of correlated jumps. For long-range dependent jumps, this leads to fractional Brownian motion or linear fractional stable motion, with the time parameter replaced by an inverse stable subordinator in the case of …
We consider a continuous-time symmetric supercritical branching random walk on a multidimensional lattice with a finite set of the particle generation centres, i.e. branching sources. The main object of study is the evolutionary operator for the mean number of particles both at an arbitrary point and on the entire lattice. The existence of positive eigenvalues in the spectrum of an evolutionary operator results in an exponential growth of the number of particles in branching random walks, called supercritical in the such case. For supercritical branching random walks, it is shown that the amou…
Scaling limits of Lévy walks with random velocities
研究随机速度莱维行走的标度极限，揭示了重尾持续时间和速度分布的相互作用对扩散的影响，识别出三种不同标度区域，包括具有对数修正的临界情况，为异质系统中的异常传输建模提供精确框架。
We extend classical results by A. V. Nagaev [Izv. Akad. Nauk UzSSR Ser. Fiz.--Mat. Nauk 6 (1969) 17--22, Theory Probab. Appl. 14 (1969) 51--64, 193--208] on large deviations for sums of i.i.d. regularly varying random variables to partial sum processes of i.i.d. regularly varying vectors. The results are stated in terms of a heavy-tailed large deviation principle on the space of càdlàg functions. We illustrate how these results can be applied to functionals of the partial sum process, including ruin probabilities for multivariate random walks and long strange segments. These results make preci…
Recently, Kigami's resistance form framework has been applied to provide a general approach for deriving the scaling limits of random walks on graphs with a fractal scaling limit. As an illustrative example, this article describes an application to the random conductance model with heavy tails on nested fractal graphs.
Veraverbeke's (1977) theorem relates the tail of the distribution of the supremum of a random walk with negative drift to the tail of the distribution of its increments, or equivalently, the probability that a centered random walk with heavy-tail increments hits a moving linear boundary. We study similar problems for more general processes. In particular, we derive an analogue of Veraverbeke's theorem for fractional integrated ARMA models without prehistoric influence, when the innovations have regularly varying tails. Furthermore, we prove some limit theorems for the trajectory of the process…
This is the story of the encounter between two worlds: the world of random walks and the world of Variable Length Markov Chains (VLMC). The meeting point turns around the semi-Markov property of underlying processes.
For a continuous-time catalytic branching random walk (CBRW) on Z, with an arbitrary finite number of catalysts, we study the asymptotic behavior of position of the rightmost particle when time tends to infinity. The mild requirements include the regular variation of the jump distribution tail for underlying random walk and the well-known L log L condition for the offspring numbers. In our classification, given in the previous paper, the analysis refers to supercritical CBRW. The principle result demonstrates that, after a proper normalization, the maximum of CBRW converges in distribution to …
The Elephant Random Walk (ERW), first introduced by Schütz and Trimper (2004), is a one-dimensional simple random walk on $ \mathbb{Z} $ having a memory about the whole past. We study the Shark Random Swim, a random walk whose steps are $ α$-stable distributed with memory about the whole past. In contrast with the ERW, the steps of the Shark Random Swim have a heavy tailed distribution. Our aim in this work is to study the impact of the heavy tailed step distributions on the asymptotic behavior of the random walk. We shall see that, as for the ERW, the asymptotic behavior of the Shark Random S…
We study the distribution of the maximal displacement of particles positions for the whole time of the population existence in the model of critical and subcritical catalytic branching random walk on Z. In particular, we prove that in the case of simple symmetric random walk on Z, the distribution of the maximal displacement has "a heavy tail" decreasing as a function of the power 1/2 or 1, when the branching process is critical or subcritical, respectively. These statements describe new effects which do not arise in the corresponding investigations of the maximal displacement of critical and …
Consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$, with offspring distribution Z and nonnegative displacement distribution W. We say that explosion occurs if an infinite number of particles may be found within a finite distance of the origin. In this paper, we investigate this phenomenon when the offspring distribution Z is heavy-tailed. Under an appropriate condition, we are able to characterize the pairs (Z, W) for which explosion occurs, by demonstrating the equivalence of explosion with a seemingly much weaker event: that the sum over generations of the minimum displacement in each generati…
We consider a random walk in the plane which takes steps uniformly distributed on the unit circle centered around the walker's current position but avoids the convex hull of its past positions. This model has been introduced by Angel, Benjamini and Virag. We show a large deviation estimate for the distance of the walker from the origin, which implies that the walker has positive lim inf speed.
We consider weighted graphs satisfying sub-Gaussian estimate for the natural random walk. On such graphs, we study symmetric Markov chains with heavy tailed jumps. We establish a threshold behavior of such Markov chains when the index governing the tail heaviness (or jump index) equals the escape time exponent (or walk dimension) of the sub-Gaussian estimate. In a certain sense, this generalizes the classical threshold corresponding to the second moment condition.
In this article we study a \emph{non-directed} polymer model in dimension $d\ge 2$: we consider a simple symmetric random walk on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ which interacts with a random environment, represented by i.i.d. random variables $(ω_x)_{x\in \mathbb{Z}^d}$. The model consists in modifying the law of the random walk up to time (or length) $N$ by the exponential of $\sum_{x\in \mathcal{R}_N}β(ω_x-h)$ where $\mathcal{R}_N$ is the range of the walk, \textit{i.e.} the set of visited sites up to time $N$, and $β\geq 0,\, h\in \mathbb{R}$ are two parameters. We study the behavior of the model in a weak…
It is classical to approximate the distribution of fractional Brownian motion by a renormalized sum $ S_n $ of dependent Gaussian random variables. In this paper we consider such a walk $ Z_n $ that collects random rewards $ ξ_j $ for $ j \in \mathbb Z,$ when the ceiling of the walk $ S_n $ is located at $ j.$ The random reward (or scenery) $ ξ_j $ is independent of the walk and with heavy tail. We show the convergence of the sum of independent copies of $ Z_n$ suitably renormalized to a stable motion with integral representation, whose kernel is the local time of a fractional Brownian motion …
We propose a class of strongly efficient rare event simulation estimators for random walks and compound Poisson processes with a regularly varying increment/jump-size distribution in a general large deviations regime. Our estimator is based on an importance sampling strategy that hinges on the heavy-tailed sample path large deviations result recently established in Rhee, Blanchet, and Zwart (2016). The new estimators are straightforward to implement and can be used to systematically evaluate the probability of a wide range of rare events with bounded relative error. They are "universal" in the…
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