We study the iterated Galton-Watson process (IGW), possibly with thinning, introduced by Gawełand Kimmel to model the number of repeats of DNA triplets during some genetic disorders. If the process involves some thinning, then extinction and explosion can have positive probability simultaneously. If the underlying (simple) Galton-Watson process is nondecreasing with mean m, then, conditionally on the explosion, the logarithm of the population of the IGW at time n+1 is equivalent to log(m) times the population at time n, almost surely. This simplifies arguments of Gawełand Kimmel, and confirms and extends a conjecture of Pakes.
Let $(W_n(θ))_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ be the Biggins martingale associated with a supercritical branching random walk and denote by $W_\infty(θ)$ its limit. Assuming essentially that the martingale $(W_n(2θ))_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ is uniformly integrable and that $\text{Var} W_1(θ)$ is finite, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the tail process $(W_\infty(θ) - W_{n+r}(θ))_{r\in\mathbb N_0}$ and a law of the iterated logarithm for $W_\infty(θ)-W_n(θ)$, as $n\to\infty$.
In his, by now, classical work from 1981, Nerman made extensive use of a crucial martingale $(W_t)_{t \geq 0}$ to prove convergence in probability, in mean and almost surely, of supercritical general branching processes (a.k.a. Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes) counted with a general characteristic. The martingale terminal value $W$ figures in the limits of his results. We investigate the rate at which the martingale, now called Nerman's martingale, converges to its limit $W$. More precisely, assuming the existence of a Malthusian parameter $α> 0$ and $W_0\in L^2$, we prove a functional c…
Consider a general branching process, a.k.a. Crump-Mode-Jagers process, generated by a perturbed random walk $η_1$, $ξ_1+η_2$, $ξ_1+ξ_2+η_3,\ldots$. Here, $(ξ_1,η_1)$, $(ξ_2, η_2),\ldots$ are independent identically distributed random vectors with arbitrarily dependent positive components. Denote by $N_j(t)$ the number of the $j$th generation individuals with birth times $\leq t$. Assume that $j=j(t)\to\infty$ and $j(t)=o(t^a)$ as $t\to\infty$ for some explicitly given $a>0$ (to be specified in the paper). The corresponding $j$th generation belongs to the set of intermediate generations. We pr…
Let $(ξ_k,η_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be independent identically distributed random vectors with arbitrarily dependent positive components. We call a (globally) perturbed random walk a random sequence $(T_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ defined by $T_k:=ξ_1+\cdots+ξ_{k-1}+η_k$ for $k\in\mathbb{N}$. Further, by an iterated perturbed random walk is meant the sequence of point processes defining the birth times of individuals in subsequent generations of a general branching process provided that the birth times of the first generation individuals are given by a perturbed random walk. For $j\in\mathbb{N}$ and $t\…
Let $(ξ_k,η_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be independent identically distributed random vectors with arbitrarily dependent positive components. We call a (globally) perturbed random walk a random sequence $T:=(T_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ defined by $T_k:=ξ_1+\ldots+ξ_{k-1}+η_k$ for $k\in\mathbb{N}$. Consider a general branching process generated by $T$ and denote by $N_j(t)$ the number of the $j$th generation individuals with birth times $\leq t$. We treat early generations, that is, fixed generations $j$ which do not depend on $t$. In this setting we prove counterparts for $\mathbb{E}N_j$ of the Blackwell …
In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a continuous state branching process whose branching mechanism satisfies a given condition and its reflected process at its infimum.
This paper gives sufficent and necessary conditions on a kind of limit results to hold on the precise convergent rate of an infinite series of probabilities on the Chung type law of the iterated logarithm.
We derive logarithmic asymptotics of probabilities of small deviations for iterated processes in the space of trajectories. We find conditions under which these asymptotics coincide with those of processes generating iterated processes. When these conditions fail the asymptotics are quite different.
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of supremum distribution of some classes of iterated stochastic processes $\{X(Y(t)) : t \in [0, \infty)\}$, where $\{X(t) : t \in \mathbb{R} \}$ is a centered Gaussian process and $\{Y(t): t \in [0, \infty)\}$ is an independent of $\{X(t)\}$ stochastic process with a.s. continuous sample paths. In particular, the asymptotic behavior of $\mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{s \in [0,T]} X(Y(s)) > u\right)$ as $u \to \infty$, where $T > 0$, as well as $\lim_{u\to\infty} \mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{s \in [0, h(u)]} X(Y(s)) > u\right)$, for some suitably chosen function…
Limit behaviour of temporal and contemporaneous aggregations of independent copies of a stationary multitype Galton-Watson branching process with immigration is studied in the so-called iterated and simultaneous cases, respectively. In both cases, the limit process is a zero mean Brownian motion with the same covariance function under third order moment conditions on the branching and immigration distributions. We specialize our results for generalized integer-valued autoregressive processes and single-type Galton-Watson processes with immigration as well.
Let $τ_{D}(Z) $ be the first exit time of iterated Brownian motion from a domain $D \subset \RR{R}^{n}$ started at $z\in D$ and let $P_{z}[τ_{D}(Z) >t]$ be its distribution. In this paper we establish the exact asymptotics of $P_{z}[τ_{D}(Z) >t]$ over bounded domains as an improvement of the results in \cite{deblassie, nane2}, for $z\in D$ \begin{eqnarray} \lim_{t\to\infty} t^{-1/2}\exp({3/2}π^{2/3}λ_{D}^{2/3}t^{1/3}) P_{z}[τ_{D}(Z)>t]= C(z),\nonumber \end{eqnarray} where $C(z)=(λ_{D}2^{7/2})/\sqrt{3 π}(ψ(z)\int_{D}ψ(y)dy) ^{2}$. Here $λ_{D}$ is the first eigenvalue of the Dirichlet Laplacian …
We study an iterated temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of $N$ independent copies of a strongly stationary subcritical Galton-Watson branching process with regularly varying immigration having index $α\in (0, 2)$. Limits of finite dimensional distributions of appropriately centered and scaled aggregated partial sum processes are shown to exist when first taking the limit as $N \to \infty$ and then the time scale $n \to \infty$. The limit process is an $α$-stable process if $α\in (0, 1) \cup (1, 2)$, and a deterministic line with slope $1$ if $α= 1$.
In this paper non-asymptotic exponential estimates are derived for tail of maximum martingale distribution by naturally norming in the spirit of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm. Key words: Martingales, exponential estimations, moment, Banach spaces of random variables, tail of distribution, conditional expectation.
We observe the Galton-Watson Branching Processes. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated.
In this paper we provide explicit representations of Laplace transforms of extinction time and total progeny of rough continuous-state branching processes introduced in [7]. Also, we show that their tail distributions are much fatter than those of Feller branching diffusions.
Under the assumption that the initial population size of a Galton-Watson branching process increases to infinity, the paper studies asymptotic behavior of the population size before extinction. More specifically, we establish asymptotic properties of the conditional moments (which are exactly defined in the paper).
Given an R^d-valued supercritical branching Wiener process, let D(A,T) be the number of particles in a subset A of R^d at time T, (T=0,1,2,...). We provide a complete asymptotic expansion of D(A,T) as T goes to infinity, generalizing the work of X.Chen.
We observe the continuous-time Markov Branching Process without high-order moments and allowing Immigration. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated. Main mathematical tool is regularly varying generating functions with remainder.
We write $R_n$ for the minimal position attained after time $n$ by a branching random walk in the boundary case. In this article, we prove that $R_n - \frac{1}{2} \log n$ converges in law toward a shifted Gumbel distribution.
Let $τ_{D}(Z) $ is the first exit time of iterated Brownian motion from a domain $D \subset \RR{R}^{n}$ started at $z\in D$ and let $P_{z}[τ_{D}(Z) >t]$ be its distribution. In this paper we establish the exact asymptotics of $P_{z}[τ_{D}(Z) >t]$ over bounded domains as an extension of the result in DeBlassie \cite{deblassie}, for $z\in D$ $$ P_{z}[τ_{D}(Z)>t]\approx t^{1/2} \exp(-{3/2}π^{2/3}λ_{D}^{2/3}t^{1/3}), as t\to\infty . $$ We also study asymptotics of the life time of Brownian-time Brownian motion (BTBM), $Z^{1}_{t}=z+X(Y(t))$, where $X_{t}$ and $Y_{t}$ are independent one-dimensional…
We compute the posterior distributions of the initial population and parameter of binary branching processes, in the limit of a large number of generations. We compare this Bayesian procedure with a more naïve one, based on hitting times of some random walks. In both cases, central limit theorems are available, with explicit variances.
We consider a slightly subcritical branching Brownian motion with absorption, where particles move as Brownian motions with drift $-\sqrt{2+2\varepsilon}$, undergo dyadic fission at rate $1$, and are killed when they reach the origin. We obtain a Yaglom type asymptotic result, showing that the long run expected number of particles conditioned on survival grows exponentially as $1/\sqrt{\varepsilon}$ as the process approaches criticality.
Scaling limits for continuous-time branching processes with discrete state space are provided as the initial state tends to infinity. Depending on the finiteness or non-finiteness of the mean and/or the variance of the offspring distribution, the limits are in general time-inhomogeneous Gaussian processes, time-inhomogeneous generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes or continuous-state branching processes. We also provide transfer results showing how specific asymptotic relations for the probability generating function of the offspring distribution carry over to those of the one-dimensiona…
Critical catalytic branching random walk on d-dimensional integer lattice is investigated for all d. The branching may occur at the origin only and the start point is arbitrary. The asymptotic behavior, as time grows to infinity, is determined for the mean local particles numbers. The same problem is solved for the probability of particles presence at a fixed lattice point. Moreover, the Yaglom type limit theorem is established for the local number of particles. Our analysis involves construction of an auxiliary Bellman-Harris branching process with six types of particles. The proofs employ th…
In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behaviors of the critical branching process with immigration $\{Z_n, n\ge 0\}$. First we get some estimation for the probability generating function of $Z_n$. Based on it, we get a large deviation for $Z_{n+1}/Z_n$. Lower and upper deviations for $Z_n$ are also studied. As a by-product, an upper deviation for $\max_{1\le i\le n} Z_i$ is obtained.
Consider a discrete-time one-dimensional supercritical branching random walk. We study the probability that there exists an infinite ray in the branching random walk that always lies above the line of slope $γ-ε$, where $γ$ denotes the asymptotic speed of the right-most position in the branching random walk. Under mild general assumptions upon the distribution of the branching random walk, we prove that when $ε\to 0$, the probability in question decays like $\exp\{- {β+ o(1)\over ε^{1/2}}\}$, where $β$ is a positive constant depending on the distribution of the branching random walk. In the sp…
Under natural assumptions a Feller type diffusion approximation is derived for critical multi-type branching processes with immigration when the offspring mean matrix is primitive (in other words, positively regular). Namely, it is proved that a sequence of appropriately scaled random step functions formed from a sequence of critical primitive multi-type branching processes with immigration converges weakly towards a squared Bessel process supported by a ray determined by the Perron vector of the offspring mean matrix.
We consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ with a killing barrier at zero. At criticality, the process becomes eventually extinct, and the total progeny $Z$ is therefore finite. We show that the tail distribution of $Z$ displays a typical behaviour in $(n\ln^2(n))^{-1}$, which confirms the prediction of Addario-Berry and Broutin.
Under natural assumptions, a Feller type diffusion approximation is derived for critical, irreducible multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration. Namely, it is proved that a sequence of appropriately scaled random step functions formed from a critical, irreducible multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration converges weakly towards a squared Bessel process supported by a ray determined by the Perron vector of a matrix related to the branching mechanism of the branching process in question.
In this article, we study the maximal displacement in a branching random walk. We prove that its asymptotic behaviour consists in a first almost sure ballistic term, a negative logarithmic correction in probability and stochastically bounded fluctuations. This result, proved by Addario-Berry and Reed, and Hu and Shi is given here under close-to-optimal integrability conditions. We provide simple proofs for this result, also deducing the genealogical structure of the individuals that are close to the maximal displacement.
Under a fourth order moment condition on the branching and a second order moment condition on the immigration mechanisms, we show that an appropriately scaled projection of a supercritical and irreducible continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration on certain left non-Perron eigenvectors of the branching mean matrix is asymptotically mixed normal. With an appropriate random scaling, under some conditional probability measure, we prove asymptotic normality as well. In case of a non-trivial process, under a first order moment condition on the immigration mechanism, we…
We give short proofs of two classical results about the position of the extremal particle in a branching Brownian motion, one concerning the median position and another the almost sure behaviour.
Let α([0,1]^p) denote the intersection local time of p independent d-dimensional Brownian motions running up to the time 1. Under the conditions p(d-2)<d and d\ge 2, we prove lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log P\bigl{α([0,1]^p)\ge t^{(d(p-1))/2}\bigr}=-γ_α(d,p) with the right-hand side being identified in terms of the the best constant of the Gagliardo-Nirenberg inequality. Within the scale of moderate deviations, we also establish the precise tail asymptotics for the intersection local time I_n=#{(k_1,...,k_p)\in [1,n]^p;S_1(k_1)=... =S_p(k_p)} run by the independent, symmetric, Z^d-valued random wal…
Suppose a solid has a crack filled with a gas. If the crack reaches the surrounding medium, how long does it take the gas to diffuse out of the crack? Iterated Brownian motion serves as a model for diffusion in a crack. If τis the first exit time of iterated Brownian motion from the solid, then P(τ>t) can be viewed as a measurement of the amount of contaminant left in the crack at time t. We determine the large time asymptotics of P(τ>t) for both bounded and unbounded sets. We also discuss a strange connection between iterated Brownian motion and the parabolic operator {1/8}Δ^2-\frac{\partial}…
The asymptotics of sizes of clusters for the Arratia flow is considered, the Arratia flow being a system of coalescing Wiener processes starting from the real axis and independent before they meet. A cluster at time t is defined as a set of particles that have glued together not later than at t. The results obtained are remarked to hold for any Arratia flow with a Lipschitz drift.
It is well-known that the maximal particle in a branching Brownian motion sits near $\sqrt2 t - \frac{3}{2\sqrt2}\log t$ at time $t$. One may then ask about the paths of particles near the frontier: how close can they stay to this critical curve? Two different approaches to this question have been developed. We improve upon the best-known bounds in each case, revealing new qualitative features including marked differences between the two approaches.
We consider a spatial branching process with emigration in which children either remain at the same site as their parents or migrate to new locations and then found their own colonies. We are interested in asymptotics of the partition of the total population into colonies for large populations with rare migrations. Under appropriate regimes, we establish weak convergence of the rescaled partition to some random measure that is constructed from the restriction of a Poisson point measure to a certain random region, and whose cumulant solves a simple integral equation.
Consider two-type linear-fractional branching processes in varying environments with asymptotically constant mean matrices. Let $ν$ be the extinction time. Under certain conditions, we show that both $P(ν=n)$ and $P(ν>n)$ are asymptotically the same as some functions of the products of spectral radii of the mean matrices. We also give an example for which $P(ν=n)$ decays with various speeds such as $\frac{c}{n(\log n)^2},$ $\frac{c}{n^β},β>1$ et al. which are very different from the ones of homogeneous multitype Galton-Watson processes.
In this paper the asymptotic behavior of a critical multi-type branching process with immigration is described when the offspring mean matrix is irreducible, in other words, when the process is indecomposable. It is proved that sequences of appropriately scaled random step functions formed from periodic subsequences of a critical indecomposable multi-type branching process with immigration converge weakly towards a process supported by a ray determined by the Perron vector of the offspring mean matrix. The types can be partitioned into nonempty mutually disjoint subsets (according to communica…
We consider a branching Brownian motion in which binary fission takes place only when particles are at the origin at a rate β> 0 on the local time scale. We obtain results regarding the asymptotic behaviour of the number of particles above λt at time t, for λ> 0. As a corollary, we establish the almost sure asymptotic speed of the rightmost particle. We also prove a Strong Law of Large Numbers for this catalytic branching Brownian motion.
Let $(Z_n)$ be a supercritical branching process in an independent and identically distributed random environment $ξ$. We show the exact decay rate of the probability $\mathbb{P}(Z_n=j | Z_0 = k)$ as $n \to \infty$, for each $j \geq k,$ assuming that $\mathbb{P} (Z_1 = 0) =0$. We also determine the critical value for the existence of harmonic moments of the random variable $W=\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{Z_n}{\mathbb E (Z_n|ξ)}$ under a simple moment condition.
Concentration inequalities for strong laws and laws of the iterated logarithm
Department of Mathematics, London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院数学系）；Department of Statistics and The Miller Institute, University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校统计系及米勒研究所）
We provide a generalization of Theorem 1 in Bartkiewicz, Jakubowski, Mikosch and Wintenberger (2011) in the sense that we give sufficient conditions for weak convergence of finite dimensional distributions of the partial sum processes of a strongly stationary sequence to the corresponding finite dimensional distributions of a non-Gaussian stable process instead of weak convergence of the partial sums themselves to a non-Gaussian stable distribution. As an application, we describe the asymptotic behaviour of finite dimensional distributions of aggregation of independent copies of a strongly sta…
Consider a continuous-time binary branching process conditioned to have population size n at some time t, and with a chance p for recording each extinct individual in the process. Within the family tree of this process, we consider the smallest subtree containing the genealogy of the extant individuals together with the genealogy of the recorded extinct individuals. We introduce a novel representation of such subtrees in terms of a point-process, and provide asymptotic results on the distribution of this point-process as the number of extant individuals increases. We motivate the study within …
