Consider a continuous-time binary branching process conditioned to have population size n at some time t, and with a chance p for recording each extinct individual in the process. Within the family tree of this process, we consider the smallest subtree containing the genealogy of the extant individuals together with the genealogy of the recorded extinct individuals. We introduce a novel representation of such subtrees in terms of a point-process, and provide asymptotic results on the distribution of this point-process as the number of extant individuals increases. We motivate the study within the scope of a coherent analysis for an a priori model for macroevolution.
We encode the genealogy of a continuous-state branching process associated with a branching mechanism $Ψ$ - or $Ψ$-CSBP in short - using a stochastic flow of partitions. This encoding holds for all branching mechanisms and appears as a very tractable object to deal with asymptotic behaviours and convergences. In particular we study the so-called Eve property - the existence of an ancestor from which the entire population descends asymptotically - and give a necessary and sufficient condition on the $Ψ$-CSBP for this property to hold. Finally, we show that the flow of partitions unifies the loo…
We consider catalytic branching populations. They consist of a catalyst population evolving according to a critical binary branching process in continuous time with a constant branching rate and a reactant population with a branching rate proportional to the number of catalyst individuals alive. The reactant forms a process in random medium. We describe asymptotically the genealogy of catalytic branching populations coded as the induced forest of $\mathbb{R}$-trees using the many individuals--rapid branching continuum limit. The limiting continuum genealogical forests are then studied in detai…
We present a model for growth in a multi-species population. We consider two types evolving as a logistic branching process with mutation, where one of the types has a selective advantage, and are interested in the regime in which the carrying capacity of the system goes to $\infty$. We first study the genealogy of the population up until it almost reaches carrying capacity through a coupling with an independent branching process. We then focus on the phase in which the population has reached carrying capacity. After recovering a Gillespie--Wright--Fisher SDE in the infinite carrying capacity …
We study the genealogy of a solvable population model with $N$ particles on the real line which evolves according to a discrete-time branching process with selection. At each time step, every particle gives birth to children around $a$ times its current position, where $a>0$ is a parameter of the model. Then, the $N$ rightmost new-born children are selected to form the next generation. We show that the genealogical trees of the process converge to those of a Beta coalescent as $N \to \infty$. The process we consider can be seen as a toy-model version of a continuous-time branching process with…
The extremal process of a branching random walk is the point measure recording the position of particles alive at time $n$, shifted around the expected position of the minimal position. Madaule proved that this point measure converges, as $n \to \infty$, toward a randomly shifted, decorated Poisson point process. In this article, we study the joint convergence of the extremal process together with its genealogical informations. This result is then used to describe the law of the decoration in the limiting process, as well as to study the supercritical Gibbs measures of the branching random wal…
The $N$-particle branching random walk is a discrete time branching particle system with selection. We have $N$ particles located on the real line at all times. At every time step each particle is replaced by two offspring, and each offspring particle makes a jump of non-negative size from its parent's location, independently from the other jumps, according to a given jump distribution. Then only the $N$ rightmost particles survive; the other particles are removed from the system to keep the population size constant. Inspired by work of J. Bérard and P. Maillard, we examine the long term behav…
Convergence of spatial branching processes to $α$-stable CSBPs: Genealogy of semi-pushed fronts
Université Paris Cité（巴黎西岱大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Faculty of Mathematics, University of Vienna（维也纳大学数学系）；Université Marie et Louis Pasteur（玛丽和路易·巴斯德大学）；LmB (UMR 6623)（洛林数学研究所（UMR 6623））
We define and analyze a coalescent process as a recursive box-filling process whose genealogy is given by an ancestral time-reversed, time-inhomogeneous Bienyamé-Galton-Watson process. Special interest is on the expected size of a typical box and its probability of being empty. Special cases leading to exact asymptotic computations are investigated when the coalescing mechanisms are either linear-fractional or quadratic.
When two (possibly different in distribution) continuous-state branching processes with immigration are present, we study the relative frequency of one of them when the total mass is forced to be constant at a dense set of times. This leads to a SDE whose unique strong solution will be the definition of a $Λ$-asymmetric frequency process ($Λ$-AFP). We prove that it is a Feller process and we calculate a large population limit when the total mass tends to infinity. This allows us to study the fluctuations of the process around its deterministic limit. Furthermore, we find conditions for the $Λ$…
Coalescence processes have received a lot of attention in the context of conditional branching processes with fixed population size and non-overlapping generations. Here we focus on similar problems in the context of the standard unconditional Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching processes, either (sub)-critical or supercritical. Using an analytical tool, we derive the structure of some counting aspects of the ancestral genealogy of such processes, including: the transition matrix of the ancestral count process and an integral representation of various coalescence times distributions, such as the …
We study a universal object for the genealogy of a sample in populations with mutations: the critical birth-death process with Poissonian mutations, conditioned on its population size at a fixed time horizon. We show how this process arises as the law of the genealogy of a sample in a large class of critical branching populations with mutations at birth, namely populations converging, in a large population asymptotic, towards the continuum random tree. We extend this model to populations with random foundation times, with (potentially improper) prior distributions g_i: x\mapsto x^{-i}, i\in\Z_…
We consider a system of particles which perform branching Brownian motion with negative drift and are killed upon reaching zero, in the near-critical regime where the total population stays roughly constant with approximately N particles. We show that the characteristic time scale for the evolution of this population is of order $(\log N)^3$, in the sense that when time is measured in these units, the scaled number of particles converges to a variant of Neveu's continuous-state branching process. Furthermore, the genealogy of the particles is then governed by a coalescent process known as the …
Branching Brownian Motion describes a system of particles which diffuse in space and split into offsprings according to a certain random mechanism. In virtue of the groundbreaking work by M. Bramson on the convergence of solutions of the Fisher-KPP equation to traveling waves, the law of the rightmost particle in the limit of large times is rather well understood. In this work, we address the full statistics of the extremal particles (first-, second-, third- etc. largest). In particular, we prove that in the large $t-$limit, such particles descend with overwhelming probability from ancestors h…
At time 0, start a time-continuous binary branching process, where particles give birth to a single particle independently (at a possibly time-dependent rate) and die independently (at a possibly time-dependent and age-dependent rate). A particular case is the classical birth--death process. Stop this process at time $T>0$. It is known that the tree spanned by the $N$ tips alive at time $T$ of the tree thus obtained (called reduced tree or coalescent tree) is a coalescent point process (CPP), which basically means that the depths of interior nodes are iid. Now select each of the $N$ tips indep…
Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree and pick $k$ distinct particles uniformly from those alive at a time $T$. What does their genealogical tree look like? The case $k=2$ has been studied by several authors, and the near-critical asymptotics for general $k$ appear in Harris, Johnston and Roberts (2018). Here we give the full picture.
In this work, we first show that the properly rescaled height process of the genealogical tree of a continuous time branching process converges to the height process of the genealogy of a (possibly discontinuous) continuous state branching process. We then prove the same type of result for generalized branching processes with interaction.
In this work, we study asymptotics of the genealogy of Galton-Watson processes. Thus we consider a offspring distribution such that the rescaled Galton-Watson processes converges to a continuous state branching process (CSBP) with jumps. After we show that the rescaled height (or exploration) process of the corresponding Galton-Watson family tree, converges in a functional sense, to the continuous height process that Le Gall and Le Jan introduced in 1998 on their paper "branching processes in Lévy processes : The exploration process".
The reduced Markov branching process is a stochastic model for the genealogy of an unstructured biological population. Its limit behavior in the critical case is well studied for the Zolotarev-Slack regularity parameter $α\in(0,1]$. We turn to the case of very heavy tailed reproduction distribution $α=0$ assuming Zubkov's regularity condition with parameter $β\in(0,\infty)$. Our main result gives a new asymptotic pattern for the reduced branching process conditioned on non-extinction during a long time interval.
We present a genealogy for superprocesses with a non-homogeneous quadratic branching mechanism, relying on a weighted version of the superprocess and a Girsanov theorem. We then decompose this genealogy with respect to the last individual alive (William's decomposition). Letting the extinction time tend to infinity, we get the Q-process by looking at the superprocess from the root, and define another process by looking from the top. Examples including the multitype Feller diff usion and the superdiffusion are provided.
{\bf Abstract} The trajectory of the frequency of an allele which begins at $x$ at time $0$ and is known to have frequency $z$ at time $T$ can be modelled by the bridge process of the Wright-Fisher diffusion. Bridges when $x=z=0$ are particularly interesting because they model the trajectory of the frequency of an allele which appears at a time, then is lost by random drift or mutation after a time $T$. The coalescent genealogy back in time of a population in a neutral Wright-Fisher diffusion process is well understood. In this paper we obtain a new interpretation of the coalescent genealogy o…
Consider a branching random walk $(V_u)_{u\in \mathcal T^{IGW}}$ in $\mathbb Z^d$ with the genealogy tree $\mathcal T^{IGW}$ formed by a sequence of i.i.d. critical Galton-Watson trees. Let $R_n $ be the set of points in $\mathbb Z^d$ visited by $(V_u)$ when the index $u$ explores the first $n$ subtrees in $\mathcal T^{IGW}$. Our main result states that for $d\in \{3, 4, 5\}$, the capacity of $R_n$ is almost surely equal to $n^{\frac{d-2}{2}+o(1)}$ as $n \to \infty$.
In this work, we study asymptotics of the genealogy of Galton--Watson processes conditioned on the total progeny. We consider a fixed, aperiodic and critical offspring distribution such that the rescaled Galton--Watson processes converges to a continuous-state branching process (CSBP) with a stable branching mechanism of index $α\in (1, 2]$. We code the genealogy by two different processes: the contour process and the height process that Le Gall and Le Jan recently introduced \cite{LGLJ1, LGLJ1}. We show that the rescaled height process of the corresponding Galton--Watson family tree, with one…
We define a multi-type coalescent point process of a general branching process with finitely many types. This multi-type coalescent fully describes the genealogy of the (quasi-stationary) standing population, providing types along ancestral lineages of all individuals in the standing population. We show that this point-process is a functional of a certain Markov chain defined by the planar embedding of the branching process. This Markov chain is further used to determine statistical properties of the ancestral tree, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of two consecutive …
Branching processes and Fleming-Viot processes are two main models in stochastic population theory. Incorporating an immigration in both models, we generalize the results of Shiga (1990) and Birkner et al. (2005) which respectively connect the Feller diffusion with the classical Fleming-Viot process and the alpha-stable continuous state branching process with the Beta(2-alpha, alpha)-generalized Fleming-Viot process. In a recent work, a new class of probability-measure valued processes, called M-generalized Fleming-Viot processes with immigration, has been set up in duality with the so-called …
Consider a continuous-state branching population constructed as a flow of nested subordinators. Inverting the subordinators and reversing time give rise to a flow of coalescing Markov processes (with negative jumps) which correspond to the ancestral lineages of individuals in the current generation. The process of the ancestral lineage of a fixed individual is the Siegmund dual process of the continuous-state branching process. We study its semi-group, its long-term behavior and its generator. In order to follow the coalescences in the ancestral lineages and to describe the backward genealogy …
The objective of this paper is the study of the equilibrium behavior of a population on the hierarchical group $Ω_N$ consisting of families of individuals undergoing critical branching random walk and in addition these families also develop according to a critical branching process. Strong transience of the random walk guarantees existence of an equilibrium for this two-level branching system. In the limit $N\to\infty$ (called the hierarchical mean field limit), the equilibrium aggregated populations in a nested sequence of balls $B^{(N)}_\ell$ of hierarchical radius $\ell$ converge to a backw…
On the uniqueness of quasi-stationary distributions for population models with spatial structure
University of Buenos Aires（布宜诺斯艾利斯大学）；Instituto de Investigaciones Matemáticas Luis A. Santaló（路易斯·A·桑塔洛数学研究所）；University of São Paulo（圣保罗大学）；Federal University of Minas Gerais（米纳斯吉拉斯联邦大学）
We ask the question "when will natural selection on a gene in a spatially structured population cause a detectable trace in the patterns of genetic variation observed in the contemporary population?". We focus on the situation in which 'neighbourhood size', that is the effective local population density, is small. The genealogy relating individuals in a sample from the population is embedded in a spatial version of the ancestral selection graph and through applying a diffusive scaling to this object we show that whereas in dimensions at least three, selection is barely impeded by the spatial s…
We consider a population with non-overlapping generations, whose size goes to infinity. It is described by a discrete genealogy which may be time non-homogeneous and we pay special attention to branching trees in varying environments. A Markov chain models the dynamic of the trait of each individual along this genealogy and may also be time non-homogeneous. Such models are motivated by transmission processes in the cell division, reproduction-dispersion dynamics or sampling problems in evolution. We want to determine the evolution of the distribution of the traits among the population, namely …
Consider the population model with infinite size associated to subcritical continuous-state branching processes (CSBP). Individuals reproduce independently according to the same subcritical offspring distribution. We study the long-term behaviour of the ancestral lineages as time goes to the past and show that the flow of ancestral lineages, properly renormalized, converges almost surely to the inverse of a drift-free subordinator whose Laplace exponent is explicit in terms of the branching mechanism. We provide an interpretation in terms of the genealogy of the population. In particular, we s…
We study the evolution of a particle system whose genealogy is given by a supercritical continuous time Galton--Watson tree. The particles move independently according to a Markov process and when a branching event occurs, the offspring locations depend on the position of the mother and the number of offspring. We prove a law of large numbers for the empirical measure of individuals alive at time t. This relies on a probabilistic interpretation of its intensity by mean of an auxiliary process. The latter has the same generator as the Markov process along the branches plus additional jumps, ass…
We define a doubly infinite, monotone labeling of Bienayme-Galton-Watson (BGW) genealogies. The genealogy of the current generation backwards in time is uniquely determined by the coalescent point process $(A_i; i\ge 1)$, where $A_i$ is the coalescence time between individuals i and i+1. There is a Markov process of point measures $(B_i; i\ge 1)$ keeping track of more ancestral relationships, such that $A_i$ is also the first point mass of $B_i$. This process of point measures is also closely related to an inhomogeneous spine decomposition of the lineage of the first surviving particle in gene…
In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a continuous state branching process whose branching mechanism satisfies a given condition and its reflected process at its infimum.
We observe the Galton-Watson Branching Processes. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated.
In this paper we provide explicit representations of Laplace transforms of extinction time and total progeny of rough continuous-state branching processes introduced in [7]. Also, we show that their tail distributions are much fatter than those of Feller branching diffusions.
Under the assumption that the initial population size of a Galton-Watson branching process increases to infinity, the paper studies asymptotic behavior of the population size before extinction. More specifically, we establish asymptotic properties of the conditional moments (which are exactly defined in the paper).
The Beta coalescents are stochastic processes modeling the genealogy of a population. They appear as the rescaled limits of the genealogical trees of numerous stochastic population models. In this article, we take interest in the number of blocs at small times in the Beta coalescent. Berestycki, Berestycki and Schweinsberg proved a law of large numbers for this quantity. Recently, Limic and Talarczyk proved that a functional central limit theorem holds as well. We give here a simple proof for an unidimensional version of this result, using a coupling between Beta coalescents and continuous-tim…
Given an R^d-valued supercritical branching Wiener process, let D(A,T) be the number of particles in a subset A of R^d at time T, (T=0,1,2,...). We provide a complete asymptotic expansion of D(A,T) as T goes to infinity, generalizing the work of X.Chen.
We observe the continuous-time Markov Branching Process without high-order moments and allowing Immigration. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated. Main mathematical tool is regularly varying generating functions with remainder.
We write $R_n$ for the minimal position attained after time $n$ by a branching random walk in the boundary case. In this article, we prove that $R_n - \frac{1}{2} \log n$ converges in law toward a shifted Gumbel distribution.
We compute the posterior distributions of the initial population and parameter of binary branching processes, in the limit of a large number of generations. We compare this Bayesian procedure with a more naïve one, based on hitting times of some random walks. In both cases, central limit theorems are available, with explicit variances.
We are interested in the evolving genealogy of a birth and death process with trait structure and ecological interactions. Traits are hereditarily transmitted from a parent to its offspring unless a mutation occurs. The dynamics may depend on the trait of the ancestors and on its past and allows interactions between individuals through their lineages. We define an interacting historical particle process describing the genealogies of the living individuals; it takes values in the space of point measures on an infinite dimensional càdlàg path space. This individual-based process can be approxima…
We consider a slightly subcritical branching Brownian motion with absorption, where particles move as Brownian motions with drift $-\sqrt{2+2\varepsilon}$, undergo dyadic fission at rate $1$, and are killed when they reach the origin. We obtain a Yaglom type asymptotic result, showing that the long run expected number of particles conditioned on survival grows exponentially as $1/\sqrt{\varepsilon}$ as the process approaches criticality.
